Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[Jacob brooklyn]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Worse seems impossible. 

 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/farmers-almanac-declares-the-brrr-is-back-with-predicted-snowy-weather-in-winter-outlook?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2h4ZpOdPgWU06UHY4FeStUAhlHmuqLX2ZPeUSUgB89PDWqX6Ip7pLrtwo

Snowy

That's what they say every year

[cardinalland]

lol

[Allsnow]

11 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

And it's not as if we're that far removed from an above average snowfall winter. Last winter was horrible obviously, but NYC got 38.6 inches in the winter of 2020-21. Well above average. One horrendous winter last year isn't enough to make me believe that the situation has gotten so bad that we're never gonna see an above average snowfall winter again. . 

19-20 was horrible 

[FPizz]

12 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

And it's not as if we're that far removed from an above average snowfall winter. Last winter was horrible obviously, but NYC got 38.6 inches in the winter of 2020-21. Well above average. One horrendous winter last year isn't enough to make me believe that the situation has gotten so bad that we're never gonna see an above average snowfall winter again. . 

Past 6 have had 2 way above average, 1 slightly below, 1 below and 2 clunkers.  Averaged together for me they are like 1.5" below average. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Past 6 have had 2 way above average, 1 slightly below, 1 below and 2 clunkers.  Averaged together for me they are like 1.5" below average. 

Yeah even though last winter was close to the worst ever, we haven't done that bad in recent years. And before 2018-19 we had that incredible run of mostly well above average snowfall winters. Hard to complain even though last winter was horrible. 

[forkyfork]

psst the climate's warming and this nino is about to step up the baseline

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

psst the climate's warming and this nino is about to step up the baseline

Going to be hard for some to accept in sne 

[Stormlover74]

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Going to be hard for some to accept in sne 

What we've seen is a warming climate doesn't necessarily mean we'll get less snow. In the last 15 years we've had a lot of average to well above average snowfall winters.

You do have to wonder though if we can keep pulling that off. As the climate continues to warm, it certainly wouldn't be surprising if way below average snowfall winters (like last winter and 19-20) start to happen much more frequently.

I also agree with you about this coming winter (not looking good), but long range is hard to predict so I wouldn't give up hope. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What we've seen is a warming climate doesn't necessarily mean we'll get less snow. In the last 15 years we've had a lot of average to well above average snowfall winters.

You do have to wonder though if we can keep pulling that off. As the climate continues to warm, it certainly wouldn't be surprising if way below average snowfall winters (like last winter and 19-20) start to happen much more frequently.

I also agree with you about this coming winter (not looking good), but long range is hard to predict so I wouldn't give up hope. 

Who says it's going to be snowy or even a non snowy winter is picking a number out of a hat this far out .

We have seen numerous times long range outlooks fail.

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What we've seen is a warming climate doesn't necessarily mean we'll get less snow. In the last 15 years we've had a lot of average to well above average snowfall winters.

You do have to wonder though if we can keep pulling that off. As the climate continues to warm, it certainly wouldn't be surprising if way below average snowfall winters (like last winter and 19-20) start to happen much more frequently.

I also agree with you about this coming winter (not looking good), but long range is hard to predict so I wouldn't give up hope. 

We still have a high ceiling for big events but our moderate/light snowfalls seem to be disappearing. The just cold enough events seem to be a thing of the past. It either  perfect blocking for snow or nothing  now 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We still have a high ceiling for big events but our moderate/light snowfalls seem to be disappearing. The just cold enough events seem to be a thing of the past. It either  perfect blocking for snow or nothing  now 

Lots of 33 and white rain in our future

[Volcanic Winter]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We still have a high ceiling for big events but our moderate/light snowfalls seem to be disappearing. The just cold enough events seem to be a thing of the past. It either  perfect blocking for snow or nothing  now 

Exactly the post I was about to make. 

Sure, we may get more juiced up storms before temperature becomes completely prohibitive, but in the interim winters have warmed enough that we’re starting to lose borderline events that would’ve been paste-jobs in earlier decades. 

This issue has often been covered up by the monstrous MECS & HECS we’ve been getting in recent years. 

@bluewavehas posted about this frequently with good data to back up how we’ve begun a ‘feast or famine’ regime where we’ve lost many of our small to moderate events that’s covered up with monstrous storms. 

Of course the foot+ storms are amazing to witness and are very fun, but it’s those small to moderate events along with cold enough air temperatures to keep it around a few days that really provides a winter feel. And this is something we’ve really been lacking lately. 

[Volcanic Winter]

This is also why I personally enjoyed 2014 so much; I didn’t get too many big storms that year but we had very frequent minor snowfalls that stuck around for weeks. I distinctly remember my front porch being iced over and frequently replenished with powder for weeks on end that winter; for me that’s the holy grail even beyond gigantic coastals. 

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

This is also why I personally enjoyed 2014 so much; I didn’t get too many big storms that year but we had very frequent minor snowfalls that stuck around for weeks. I distinctly remember my front porch being iced over and frequently replenished with powder for weeks on end that winter; for me that’s the holy grail even beyond gigantic coastals. 

14-15 was a great winter with brutal temperatures and snow cover. That winter is very unrated around this forum because of one bust. 

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Exactly the post I was about to make. 

Sure, we may get more juiced up storms before temperature becomes completely prohibitive, but in the interim winters have warmed enough that we’re starting to lose borderline events that would’ve been paste-jobs in earlier decades. 

This issue has often been covered up by the monstrous MECS & HECS we’ve been getting in recent years. 

@bluewavehas posted about this frequently with good data to back up how we’ve begun a ‘feast or famine’ regime where we’ve lost many of our small to moderate events that’s covered up with monstrous storms. 

Of course the foot+ storms are amazing to witness and are very fun, but it’s those small to moderate events along with cold enough air temperatures to keep it around a few days that really provides a winter feel. And this is something we’ve really been lacking lately. 

@psuhoffman has talked about it as well for the dca/bwi area. We now need this perfect combo of blocking/cold/pna to snow around here. We just don’t get that enough to have long periods of winter 

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Exactly the post I was about to make. 

Sure, we may get more juiced up storms before temperature becomes completely prohibitive, but in the interim winters have warmed enough that we’re starting to lose borderline events that would’ve been paste-jobs in earlier decades. 

This issue has often been covered up by the monstrous MECS & HECS we’ve been getting in recent years. 

@bluewavehas posted about this frequently with good data to back up how we’ve begun a ‘feast or famine’ regime where we’ve lost many of our small to moderate events that’s covered up with monstrous storms. 

Of course the foot+ storms are amazing to witness and are very fun, but it’s those small to moderate events along with cold enough air temperatures to keep it around a few days that really provides a winter feel. And this is something we’ve really been lacking lately. 

Yeah, every season since 2000 has been all or nothing for snowfall at Islip. No moderate seasons with between 13-32”. Numerous moderate seasons from 1963 to 1990. So the character of our snowfall distribution has changed. Very hard to do a seasonal forecast in the fall and know if we are getting 33-65 “or under 10” for season. In the old days you could do a moderate seasonal snowfall forecast for 15-30 “or 20-30” and have a reasonable chance of being correct.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2023-04-30	5.0	0
2022-04-30	37.0	0
2021-04-30	33.5	0
2020-04-30	6.8	0
2019-04-30	12.8	0
2018-04-30	65.9	0
2017-04-30	39.3	0
2016-04-30	41.4	0
2015-04-30	63.7	0
2014-04-30	63.7	0
2013-04-30	46.9	0
2012-04-30	4.7	0
2011-04-30	55.3	0
2010-04-30	53.8	0
2009-04-30	36.2	0
2008-04-30	10.7	0
2007-04-30	9.0	0
2006-04-30	36.0	0
2005-04-30	58.8	0
2004-04-30	41.4	0
2003-04-30	54.6	0
2002-04-30	3.7	1
2001-04-30	38.9	1
2000-04-30	9.0	0

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Going to be hard for some to accept in sne 

They really do go ape shit when you mention AGW/CC. 

[MJO812]

Mike Masco thinks this will be a cold and snowy winter for the east. He likes what he sees right now .

[Brasiluvsnow]

11 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco thinks this will be a cold and snowy winter for the east. He likes what he sees right now .

Mikes lips to God and Mother Natures ears to our doorsteps !

[forkyfork]

On 8/6/2023 at 12:13 PM, forkyfork said:

let's go 1998 pattern

 

 

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

 

This gives me hope given how wrong you were with last winter's blocking pattern

[Santa Claus]

snow wednesday night?

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

snow wednesday night?

It's coming

[jm1220]

On 8/10/2023 at 9:52 AM, forkyfork said:

 

And we probably go right back to Perma-Nina after this Nino, so if this one coming up sucks, the next one probably will too unless that Nina can be east-based. The 97-98 Nino went into a strong Nina the year after. 

I’m not convinced yet that we’re doomed to snowless winters permanently. We were due for a slump after the bonanza winters after 2000 that raised Central Park’s average to 30”. The all or nothings from one or two big ones may be a permanent change, can’t get a 3-6” clipper or fast mover for nothing anymore. 

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[forkyfork]

not fair

[bluewave]

I moved up to the CT shoreline just east of Tweed airport. So KHVN is my new nearest official station. It’s a cool little airport tucked into a nice community. So I may be as close to KHVN is Rjay us to ISP. I get some nice sea breezes here right off the sound. I will keep posting in NYC Metro since the crew feels like extended family to me. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

I moved up to the CT shoreline just east of Tweed airport. So KHVN is my new nearest official station. It’s a cool little airport tucked into a nice community. So I may be as close to KHVN is Rjay us to ISP. I get some nice sea breezes here right off the sound. I will keep posting in NYC Metro since the crew feels like extended family to me. 

Congrats on the move. Your definitely still part of this forum and will always be appreciated!

[Brian5671]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

I moved up to the CT shoreline just east of Tweed airport. So KHVN is my new nearest official station. It’s a cool little airport tucked into a nice community. So I may be as close to KHVN is Rjay us to ISP. I get some nice sea breezes here right off the sound. I will keep posting in NYC Metro since the crew feels like extended family to me. 

You are about 25 miles east of me.  We fly out of HVN often it's very convenient.    A little less snow out that way due to the greater influence of the open ocean east of LI but still decent compared to SE CT which often goes to rain first...