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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


BxEngine
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3 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Little bumpy over the atlantic on our flight to Aruba, past most of it now. Be a shame if saturday’s weather sucks and i get stuck there another night……

Went there for my 20th Anniversary in late March.  It was my first time there.  Loved it and can't wait to go back.

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13 hours ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

We got hit with a microburst yesterday that knocked out power to about 2500 residence yesterday for over 10 hours. 

She is a politician so she is obviously an expert. I guess there were never Thunderstorms, Blizzards, Heat Waves before the 20th century, I'm so glad she cleared things up for me.

 

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45 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how does a weather forum have so many climate change deniers

Good afternoon forky. You might also ask this question …. How many of the  c c d’s you’ve mentioned have mitigated or done away with their original position because of the contributions of the posters that they share the forum with? Stay well, as always ….

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A remote volcano in Papau New Guinea named Bagana just had a stealthy moderately large explosive eruption. 

 

https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=255020

Bagana is interesting because it potentially is the “offspring” of a very large neighboring caldera with the odd name of Billy Mitchell, which had an extremely powerful explosive eruption somewhere around the 16th century. Climate impacting, potentially a contributor during the LIA. Bagana is extremely young and extremely productive, apparently the majority of the edifice grew after Billy Mitchell’s eruption and could be from the same magma supply, as Billy Mitchell has been silent since then. Bagana erupts fresher, less evolved (explosive) magma than its ‘parent,’ and yet just had a pretty large sub - plinian event with a plume up to 16-18km. It doesn’t appear it was a sustained eruption and was a brief episode of activity, but still that is a substantial eruption and probably larger than anything other than Shiveluch’s big blast this year. 

image.jpeg.839a3c9a9ff8b4fd8b22e1c4e1c1508c.jpeg
 

Bagana lurking in the background behind the large caldera lake of Billy Mitchell. 
 

https://watchers.news/2023/07/15/high-level-eruption-at-bagana-volcano-ash-plume-to-16-4-km-54-000-feet-a-s-l-p-n-g/

 

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10 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

We got hit with a microburst yesterday that knocked out power to about 2500 residence yesterday for over 10 hours. 

She is a politician so she is obviously an expert. I guess there were never Thunderstorms, Blizzards, Heat Waves before the 20th century, I'm so glad she cleared things up for me.

 

giphy.gif

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14 hours ago, forkyfork said:

above normal in summer: it's supposed to be hot

above normal in winter: it's a bad pattern

Literally every comment on Twitter after there's a post about record heat is that. 

Which is why it'll nearly be impossible for climate change to be addressed until it's too late. The complacency and levels of denial is insane. 

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Literally every comment on Twitter after there's a post about record heat is that. 

Which is why it'll nearly be impossible for climate change to be addressed until it's too late. The complacency and levels of denial is insane. 

@Typhoon Tip has made quite a few posts about this regarding how it’s human nature to not care about an abstract, intangible issue before it impacts you directly. Add to that how it’s become this weird political issue thanks to the oil industry, and the overall level of science denialism in this country. People overestimate their own understanding of things and operate off “that sounds true and aligns with my preconceived beliefs, so it’s correct.” 

Look I don’t post about this stuff much because I have a very pessimistic attitude about what we’re facing, but I don’t see any *real* change happening for another several decades. Until the point we’re so beyond the norm, anyone still left arguing against it will inherently look foolish. Until the point the younger generations that don’t have this weird political chip with climate change are the ones in the majority. Until we as a species literally have no choice (which by then will be too late, it’s already too late).

People talk about natural cycles of the planet like it’s some kind of rebuttal of climate change. The Holocene interstadial has already been one of the longer ones, we should be sliding back toward the next stadial (ice age). We soundly aborted that. We’re outpacing the climate impact of even the worst flood basalt mass extinctions (Permian / Siberian Traps, that almost cooked the entire planet over many thousands of years). 

I read many climate papers as they are published, some of the ones from the past year or two are highly alarming. I don’t know what else to say, we needed to be on top of this 30 years ago. It’s not even about blame at this point, the Industrial Revolution served its purpose. Now we know, now we need to evolve beyond inadvertent geo-engineering. Nobody said it’s an easy issue to fix, but we’re collectively actually doing less than the bare minimum. 

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8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@Typhoon Tip has made quite a few posts about this regarding how it’s human nature to not care about an abstract, intangible issue before it impacts you directly. Add to that how it’s become this weird political issue thanks to the oil industry, and the overall level of science denialism in this country. People overestimate their own understanding of things and operate off “that sounds true and aligns with my preconceived beliefs, so it’s correct.” 

Look I don’t post about this stuff much because I have a very pessimistic attitude about what we’re facing, but I don’t see any *real* change happening for another several decades. Until the point we’re so beyond the norm, anyone still left arguing against it will inherently look foolish. Until the point the younger generations that don’t have this weird political chip with climate change are the ones in the majority. Until we as a species literally have no choice (which by then will be too late, it’s already too late).

People talk about natural cycles of the planet like it’s some kind of rebuttal of climate change. The Holocene interstadial has already been one of the longer ones, we should be sliding back toward the next stadial (ice age). We soundly aborted that. We’re outpacing the climate impact of even the worst flood basalt mass extinctions (Permian / Siberian Traps, that almost cooked the entire planet over many thousands of years). 

I read many climate papers as they are published, some of the ones from the past year or two are highly alarming. I don’t know what else to say, we needed to be on top of this 30 years ago. It’s not even about blame at this point, the Industrial Revolution served its purpose. Now we know, now we need to evolve beyond inadvertent geo-engineering. Nobody said it’s an easy issue to fix, but we’re collectively actually doing less than the bare minimum. 

At least this country is burning more natural gas which emits half the emissions of coal. Much better for air quality and breathing issues. There is only so much we can do with renewables since they are intermittent and land intensive. Even many pro renewables people are opposed to large wind and solar installations  in their backyard. New transmission networks cost a fortune. Electricity rates are already high enough. Utilities always find a way to pass on higher energy costs to the consumer. Nuclear is great but the cost of building new plants is too much so there are no utilities looking to build. We may have to wait for fusion to eventually become feasible to see emissions begin to decline. 
 

New York Times:

China has an answer to the heat waves now affecting much of the Northern Hemisphere: burn more coal to maintain a stable electricity supply for air-conditioning.

Even before this year, China was emitting almost a third of all energy-related greenhouse gases — more than the United States, Europe and Japan combined. China burns more coal every year than the rest of the world combined. Last month, China generated 14 percent more electricity from coal, its dominant fuel source, than it did in June 2022.

China’s ability to ramp up coal usage in recent weeks is the result of a huge national campaign over the past two years to expand coal mines and build more coal-fired power plants. State media celebrated the industriousness of the 1,000 workers who toiled without vacations this spring to finish one of the world’s largest coal-fired power plants in southeastern China in time for summer.

The paradox of China’s energy policy is that the country also leads the world in installing renewables. It dominates most of the global supply chain for clean energy — from solar panels to battery storage to electric cars. Yet for reasons of energy security and domestic politics, it is doubling down on coal.

After three days of negotiations in Beijing, John Kerry, President Biden’s climate envoy, said on Wednesday that China’s coal program had been the hardest issue. “The question now is to shift from some of the coal dependency,” he said.

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3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

nws just released the 6 month forecast no rain for LI until january wow

 

3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

says here your house isn’t ever getting precip again

Will if you ever publish “Trolling With Humor” I’d appreciate a signed copy. I wonder what we Islanders did to piss Mother off. Stay well, as always ….

 

IMG_6600.png

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4 hours ago, rclab said:

 

Will if you ever publish “Trolling With Humor” I’d appreciate a signed copy. I wonder what we Islanders did to piss Mother off. Stay well, as always ….

 

IMG_6600.png

i’m just being a little goblin just having a giggle at my own japes and schemes

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5 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I take it no Aurora Borealis in the lower 48 this past week?

I hadn’t looked into it but I have a location based aurora app on my phone for when we go to Iceland that sends push notifications with the KP and cloudcover when viewing is possible in your area, and I didn’t receive anything. I’ve gotten them here in Jersey before, too. It went off for one of those earlier storms this year where they were possibly visible, but it was a cloudy night and most of our area is simply too bright (and they’re likely to be low on the northern horizon at our latitude unless it’s like Kp 8-9).

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