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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


BxEngine
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53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boring weather on the models. Sucks if we waste this cold.

 

36 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Lace up the skates and get out there 

Caution Anthony ……. Ma Nature knows where we live. As always …..

 

IMG_0945.png

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Last trivia question at the bar tonight was “what country has 10 of the top 15 coldest reporting stations on planet earth as of 12:00 pm today.”

It was my calling and I won that shit for my team ‘Hudson City Sluts’ and every weenie in here.

Russia was the answer. 

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Last trivia question at the bar tonight was “what country has 10 of the top 15 coldest reporting stations on planet earth as of 12:00 pm today.”
It was my calling and I won that shit for my team ‘Hudson City Sluts’ and every weenie in here.
Russia was the answer. 

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8 hours ago, Nibor said:

Last trivia question at the bar tonight was “what country has 10 of the top 15 coldest reporting stations on planet earth as of 12:00 pm today.”

It was my calling and I won that shit for my team ‘Hudson City Sluts’ and every weenie in here.

Russia was the answer. 

So you didn't answer the northern NY Metro? 

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On 11/27/2024 at 6:47 AM, IrishRob17 said:

Maybe the past couple/few dry months was a blip in the wet pattern? Time will tell. 

*IrishRob17 neither endorses or discredits a dry or a wet pattern, warm or cold temps, a rainy or snowy winter, he merely makes observations and ponders the future along with occasionally referring to himself in the third person. He also wonders if @BxEnginehad anything to do with the debacle getting into Yankee Stadium Saturday night to watch The Irish. 

Possibly a wet week ahead. We shall see. 

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I don't know, probably just my imagination, but does anyone track average winds per day?  I could swear it's been windier than normal over the last 10 years or so.  Probably just my memory, or my hair notices it more (since there is less of it)...

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26 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I don't know, probably just my imagination, but does anyone track average winds per day?  I could swear it's been windier than normal over the last 10 years or so.  Probably just my memory, or my hair notices it more (since there is less of it)...

Darkstar I haven’t had a blown hair wind day in over three decades. Judging from trash pail cover loss, in combination with local UFO sightings,  you’re probably right. As always .…

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The last 7-10 days of December has remained a question mark. The 12/7 ECMWF weeklies were close to normal in the eastern half of the CONUS/Canada and warm in the western half. The  CFSv2 was warmer than normal across almost all of North America.

Nevertheless, some accounts on Social Media were spiking the proverbial football this afternoon for a much colder pattern even before anything had actually verified. Meanwhile, less than an hour after the festivities celebrating a dramatic turn toward a colder pattern for the Christmas/Hanukkah holiday had gotten underway, the ECMWF weeklies attempted to take away the punch bowl.

Let's have a look:

ECMWF 12/7 Run for 12/23-30:

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-wc6k2-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-2u8wzr85.thumb.webp.2d68a1f3a5f5438fd9f87b60e8b95dcd.webp

ECMWF 12/8 Run for 12/23-30:

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-zbqlr-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-i9zu0qcc.thumb.webp.afee6c31b475f6131d0cab68b7b85192.webp

And how about for the following week?

ECMWF 12/7 Run for 12/30-1/6:

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-zbqlr-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-c7p8odwt.thumb.webp.3cc6224f49f6dba01ed8e395dc1ece00.webp

ECMWF 12/8 Run for 12/30-1/6:

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-8gq4c-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-tgw1vvuh.thumb.webp.f37d48b8a929e64663e06baef3b0acd2.webp

In reality, nothing much has changed in the larger forecasting scheme since the 0z runs. Some of the guidance has shifted colder, but the ECMWF weeklies went in the opposite direction. All of that could be noise prior to the models ultimately coming into agreement. All said, there's no major reason to move away from the idea that it could turn colder during the closing days of the month, while respecting that there is uncertainty concerning the timing of any shift should it occur.

IMO, until there is sustained model commitment in one direction or the other, one should avoid prematurely verifying forecasts that may yet fail to verify. It's better to allow the passage of some time to get things right than to pre-verify an outcome that might never actually occur.

 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The last 7-10 days of December has remained a question mark. The 12/7 ECMWF weeklies were close to normal in the eastern half of the CONUS/Canada and warm in the western half. The  CFSv2 was warmer than normal across almost all of North America.

Nevertheless, some accounts on Social Media were spiking the proverbial football this afternoon for a much colder pattern even before anything had actually verified. Meanwhile, less than an hour after the festivities celebrating a dramatic turn toward a colder pattern for the Christmas/Hanukkah holiday had gotten underway, the ECMWF weeklies attempted to take away the punch bowl.

Let's have a look:

ECMWF 12/7 Run for 12/23-30:

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-wc6k2-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-2u8wzr85.thumb.webp.2d68a1f3a5f5438fd9f87b60e8b95dcd.webp

ECMWF 12/8 Run for 12/23-30:

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-zbqlr-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-i9zu0qcc.thumb.webp.afee6c31b475f6131d0cab68b7b85192.webp

And how about for the following week?

ECMWF 12/7 Run for 12/30-1/6:

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-zbqlr-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-c7p8odwt.thumb.webp.3cc6224f49f6dba01ed8e395dc1ece00.webp

ECMWF 12/8 Run for 12/30-1/6:

webp-worker-commands-5c7bc9b8bc-8gq4c-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-tgw1vvuh.thumb.webp.f37d48b8a929e64663e06baef3b0acd2.webp

In reality, nothing much has changed in the larger forecasting scheme since the 0z runs. Some of the guidance has shifted colder, but the ECMWF weeklies went in the opposite direction. All of that could be noise prior to the models ultimately coming into agreement. All said, there's no major reason to move away from the idea that it could turn colder during the closing days of the month, while respecting that there is uncertainty concerning the timing of any shift should it occur.

IMO, until there is sustained model commitment in one direction or the other, one should avoid prematurely verifying forecasts that may yet fail to verify. It's better to allow the passage of some time to get things right than to pre-verify an outcome that might never actually occur.

 

Good post. When these things happen, I tend to look for spatial areas where models (and individual runs) are more in agreement with each other. In this example, I see better agreement on warmth over the western US, implying a western ridge. The contradictory forecasts over the east may just indicate greater variability and/or higher uncertainty. 

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