IrishRob17 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Somehow I’m still amazed at weather weenies who are terrible at geography 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Somehow I’m still amazed at weather weenies who are terrible at geography You Canadians up there thinking you’re a part of the civilized world down here. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Just now, Nibor said: You Canadians up there thinking you’re a part of the civilized world down here. You southerners celebrating Thanksgiving a month late 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Somehow I’m still amazed at weather weenies who are terrible at geography what the city dwellers think of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 2 minutes ago, North and West said: what the city dwellers think of us . Well, the city dwellers that aren't well versed in geography 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 30 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: You southerners celebrating Thanksgiving a month late We need to wait for accurate weather to kick in down here. We don’t live above the arctic circle like y’all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: We need to wait for accurate weather to kick in down here. We don’t live above the arctic circle like y’all. Thoughts and prayers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 17 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Thoughts and prayers? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 22 hours ago, Nibor said: Summer house in Chautauqua County expecting 2-3 feet from lake effect. NWS upped it to 3-4 feet now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 NWS upped it to 3-4 feet now. They’ve upped theirs, now up yours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 2 hours ago, Nibor said: NWS upped it to 3-4 feet now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 1 hour ago, Rjay said: That lavender color south of Dunkirk is close to our spot. Watertown once again in for a wild event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Erie 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Note to regulars and potential new entrants, Dec contest is approaching deadline in general forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Boring weather on the models. Sucks if we waste this cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Boring weather on the models. Sucks if we waste this cold. Lace up the skates and get out there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Boring weather on the models. Sucks if we waste this cold. 36 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Lace up the skates and get out there Caution Anthony ……. Ma Nature knows where we live. As always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Boring weather on the models. Sucks if we waste this cold. It's never good when we're talking about the thaw before we've seen any snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Boring weather on the models. Sucks if we waste this cold.I’m sure part of it is social media and phones, but take a deep breath and realize you have zero control over the process and outcome. Same goes for all of us. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Random cold December day timelapse looking up Broadway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Last trivia question at the bar tonight was “what country has 10 of the top 15 coldest reporting stations on planet earth as of 12:00 pm today.” It was my calling and I won that shit for my team ‘Hudson City Sluts’ and every weenie in here. Russia was the answer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Last trivia question at the bar tonight was “what country has 10 of the top 15 coldest reporting stations on planet earth as of 12:00 pm today.” It was my calling and I won that shit for my team ‘Hudson City Sluts’ and every weenie in here. Russia was the answer. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 8 hours ago, Nibor said: Last trivia question at the bar tonight was “what country has 10 of the top 15 coldest reporting stations on planet earth as of 12:00 pm today.” It was my calling and I won that shit for my team ‘Hudson City Sluts’ and every weenie in here. Russia was the answer. So you didn't answer the northern NY Metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 40 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: So you didn't answer the northern NY Metro? A lot of people guessed you guys up in Canada. They were wrong! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 On 11/27/2024 at 6:47 AM, IrishRob17 said: Maybe the past couple/few dry months was a blip in the wet pattern? Time will tell. *IrishRob17 neither endorses or discredits a dry or a wet pattern, warm or cold temps, a rainy or snowy winter, he merely makes observations and ponders the future along with occasionally referring to himself in the third person. He also wonders if @BxEnginehad anything to do with the debacle getting into Yankee Stadium Saturday night to watch The Irish. Possibly a wet week ahead. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 I don't know, probably just my imagination, but does anyone track average winds per day? I could swear it's been windier than normal over the last 10 years or so. Probably just my memory, or my hair notices it more (since there is less of it)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 26 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I don't know, probably just my imagination, but does anyone track average winds per day? I could swear it's been windier than normal over the last 10 years or so. Probably just my memory, or my hair notices it more (since there is less of it)... Darkstar I haven’t had a blown hair wind day in over three decades. Judging from trash pail cover loss, in combination with local UFO sightings, you’re probably right. As always .… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 The last 7-10 days of December has remained a question mark. The 12/7 ECMWF weeklies were close to normal in the eastern half of the CONUS/Canada and warm in the western half. The CFSv2 was warmer than normal across almost all of North America. Nevertheless, some accounts on Social Media were spiking the proverbial football this afternoon for a much colder pattern even before anything had actually verified. Meanwhile, less than an hour after the festivities celebrating a dramatic turn toward a colder pattern for the Christmas/Hanukkah holiday had gotten underway, the ECMWF weeklies attempted to take away the punch bowl. Let's have a look: ECMWF 12/7 Run for 12/23-30: ECMWF 12/8 Run for 12/23-30: And how about for the following week? ECMWF 12/7 Run for 12/30-1/6: ECMWF 12/8 Run for 12/30-1/6: In reality, nothing much has changed in the larger forecasting scheme since the 0z runs. Some of the guidance has shifted colder, but the ECMWF weeklies went in the opposite direction. All of that could be noise prior to the models ultimately coming into agreement. All said, there's no major reason to move away from the idea that it could turn colder during the closing days of the month, while respecting that there is uncertainty concerning the timing of any shift should it occur. IMO, until there is sustained model commitment in one direction or the other, one should avoid prematurely verifying forecasts that may yet fail to verify. It's better to allow the passage of some time to get things right than to pre-verify an outcome that might never actually occur. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The last 7-10 days of December has remained a question mark. The 12/7 ECMWF weeklies were close to normal in the eastern half of the CONUS/Canada and warm in the western half. The CFSv2 was warmer than normal across almost all of North America. Nevertheless, some accounts on Social Media were spiking the proverbial football this afternoon for a much colder pattern even before anything had actually verified. Meanwhile, less than an hour after the festivities celebrating a dramatic turn toward a colder pattern for the Christmas/Hanukkah holiday had gotten underway, the ECMWF weeklies attempted to take away the punch bowl. Let's have a look: ECMWF 12/7 Run for 12/23-30: ECMWF 12/8 Run for 12/23-30: And how about for the following week? ECMWF 12/7 Run for 12/30-1/6: ECMWF 12/8 Run for 12/30-1/6: In reality, nothing much has changed in the larger forecasting scheme since the 0z runs. Some of the guidance has shifted colder, but the ECMWF weeklies went in the opposite direction. All of that could be noise prior to the models ultimately coming into agreement. All said, there's no major reason to move away from the idea that it could turn colder during the closing days of the month, while respecting that there is uncertainty concerning the timing of any shift should it occur. IMO, until there is sustained model commitment in one direction or the other, one should avoid prematurely verifying forecasts that may yet fail to verify. It's better to allow the passage of some time to get things right than to pre-verify an outcome that might never actually occur. Good post. When these things happen, I tend to look for spatial areas where models (and individual runs) are more in agreement with each other. In this example, I see better agreement on warmth over the western US, implying a western ridge. The contradictory forecasts over the east may just indicate greater variability and/or higher uncertainty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Juan Soto is a Met. This must be what living during the golden age of Rome was like.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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