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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


BxEngine
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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

So far, the 2016-16 through 2024-25 period is running notably warmer than had been suggested by the climate models (9-year mean: 38.5°).

I believe this may be the first time in U.S. history that a part of the county experienced 9 consecutive warmer than average winters with numerous all-time winter warmth records being set.

Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average.
 

NYC

Feb 24…+4.2

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

…………..+4.3

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I believe this may be the first time in U.S. history that a part of the county experienced 9 consecutive warmer than average winters with numerous all-time winter warmth records being set.

Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average.
 

 

NYC

Feb 24…+4.2

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

…………..+4.3

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

 

I suspect that the marine heatwaves have skewed things warmer than might otherwise have occurred in their absence. It will be interesting to see how the coming winter and future ones this decade fare relative to the climate model forecasts.

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15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that the marine heatwaves have skewed things warmer than might otherwise have occurred in their absence. It will be interesting to see how the coming winter and future ones this decade fare relative to the climate model forecasts.

The 38.5° NYC average over the last 9 years was a little warmer than the DCA 1981-2010 winter average of 38.2°.

 

https://ggweather.com/normals/DC81.html

 

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On 8/30/2024 at 2:40 PM, GaWx said:

I hope he holds onto his forecast this time and doesn’t bail to Wx Bell marketing and weenie related pressure. It is weaker than model consensus has it at this time, but Nino 3.4 has finally been steadily cooling recently with the help of a +SOI (finally). Also, keep in mind that the equivalent RONI is already near -0.7, solidly into weak Niña. It wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with a moderate RONI based peak.

Like clockwork and even earlier than I expected, predictable JB has just cooled his Nov-Mar forecast. Warning: this may just be a baby step on the way to more cooling…we’ll see. In 2020-21, he also had an initially mild E US that he drastically cooled in November. He has since at least 2014-5 not had a mild FINAL cold season forecast as 20-21’s was changed to NN (which in all fairness verified pretty well).

Old one (8/22/24):

IMG_0470.png.5e6de61fefbe5256437bcff1a580c58e.png

 

New one (10/8/24): ~1F cooler from +2 to +1 in NE Megapolis, which isn’t trivial as +1 is NN to me meaning he’s ditched his somewhat mild NE fcast:

IMG_0472.png.8f2fb20939e5c12859f3ece67d35ce69.png
 

@donsutherland1

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52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Like clockwork and even earlier than I expected, predictable JB has just cooled his Nov-Mar forecast. Warning: this may just be a baby step on the way to more cooling…we’ll see. In 2020-21, he also had an initially mild E US that he drastically cooled in November. He has since at least 2014-5 not had a mild FINAL cold season forecast as 20-21’s was changed to NN (which in all fairness verified pretty well).

Old one (8/22/24):

IMG_0470.png.5e6de61fefbe5256437bcff1a580c58e.png

 

New one (10/8/24): ~1F cooler from +2 to +1 in NE Megapolis, which isn’t trivial as +1 is NN to me meaning he’s ditched his somewhat mild NE fcast:

IMG_0472.png.8f2fb20939e5c12859f3ece67d35ce69.png
 

@donsutherland1

That’s a pretty dramatic cooling.

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1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Headed up to niagara falls this weekend. Anyone been recently? Good stuff to see? (Shutup  @Rjay)

I highly doubt that you will go across the Southern Tier but I was up in Buffalo this week for a conference and drove that way. Some really nice colors in the hill towns south and east of Buffalo. 

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On 10/13/2024 at 1:44 PM, GaWx said:

Like clockwork and even earlier than I expected, predictable JB has just cooled his Nov-Mar forecast. Warning: this may just be a baby step on the way to more cooling…we’ll see. In 2020-21, he also had an initially mild E US that he drastically cooled in November. He has since at least 2014-5 not had a mild FINAL cold season forecast as 20-21’s was changed to NN (which in all fairness verified pretty well).

Old one (8/22/24):

IMG_0470.png.5e6de61fefbe5256437bcff1a580c58e.png

 

New one (10/8/24): ~1F cooler from +2 to +1 in NE Megapolis, which isn’t trivial as +1 is NN to me meaning he’s ditched his somewhat mild NE fcast:

IMG_0472.png.8f2fb20939e5c12859f3ece67d35ce69.png
 

@donsutherland1

Here's the type of post that makes the 2020 era Joe Bastardi dissatisfying: He knows that his forecast has changed and then he goes back to the one that has been replaced. He did a similar thing last year, dropping analogs that were in his final winter forecast and adding some analogs that weren't part of it showing a warm December to suggest that his forecast was on track.

image.png.8bf8bdf3dad5508db1783b9f1223a580.png

 

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With much persistence, I managed to catch a glimpse of the comet tonight.  Could not see it with the naked eye, but did view it with some binoculars.  It certainly was not the kind you follow to see the next Messiah...

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On 10/17/2024 at 7:02 PM, IrishRob17 said:

I highly doubt that you will go across the Southern Tier but I was up in Buffalo this week for a conference and drove that way. Some really nice colors in the hill towns south and east of Buffalo. 

We went 17 and then made a stop at letchworth state park. Well worth the trip, its an awesome park. Colors were great in the hills there but northern orange and the western edges of sullivan and north were better than further north. Niagara isnt at peak yet, they seem on par with rockland honestly.

 

 

Screenshot_20241020_112137_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

We went 17 and then made a stop at letchworth state park. Well worth the trip, its an awesome park. Colors were great in the hills there but northern orange and the western edges of sullivan and north were better than further north. Niagara isnt at peak yet, they seem on par with rockland honestly.

 

IMG_8368.png

I just took a nice photo of the brilliant orange on one of my sugar maples and the deep red on my autumn blaze red maple...I then screenshotted it...still can't post it. Any chance this site gets upgraded to a more current decade? 

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40 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I just took a nice photo of the brilliant orange on one of my sugar maples and the deep red on my autumn blaze red maple...I then screenshotted it...still can't post it. Any chance this site gets upgraded to a more current decade? 

Weird I'm still not having any issues

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I just took a nice photo of the brilliant orange on one of my sugar maples and the deep red on my autumn blaze red maple...I then screenshotted it...still can't post it. Any chance this site gets upgraded to a more current decade? 

No

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