bluewave Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: So far, the 2016-16 through 2024-25 period is running notably warmer than had been suggested by the climate models (9-year mean: 38.5°). I believe this may be the first time in U.S. history that a part of the county experienced 9 consecutive warmer than average winters with numerous all-time winter warmth records being set. Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average. NYC Feb 24…+4.2 Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 …………..+4.3 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 Joe Bastardi 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I believe this may be the first time in U.S. history that a part of the county experienced 9 consecutive warmer than average winters with numerous all-time winter warmth records being set. Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average. NYC Feb 24…+4.2 Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 …………..+4.3 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 I suspect that the marine heatwaves have skewed things warmer than might otherwise have occurred in their absence. It will be interesting to see how the coming winter and future ones this decade fare relative to the climate model forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 The last two winters were among the 10 worst in New York City when the combination of warmth and lack of snowfall was considered. It remains to be seen where Winter 2024-2025 will fall, but I suspect that it won't rank as badly as the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Anyone see the comet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I suspect that the marine heatwaves have skewed things warmer than might otherwise have occurred in their absence. It will be interesting to see how the coming winter and future ones this decade fare relative to the climate model forecasts. The 38.5° NYC average over the last 9 years was a little warmer than the DCA 1981-2010 winter average of 38.2°. https://ggweather.com/normals/DC81.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The 38.5° NYC average over the last 9 years was a little warmer than the DCA 1981-2010 winter average of 38.2°. https://ggweather.com/normals/DC81.html That's remarkable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 two straight months of nice weather almost every day, and an aurora maybe they do have a weather machine 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 i made this on thursday night in bedminster with forkyfork 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 If i could control the weather there would be some signs 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 On 8/30/2024 at 2:40 PM, GaWx said: I hope he holds onto his forecast this time and doesn’t bail to Wx Bell marketing and weenie related pressure. It is weaker than model consensus has it at this time, but Nino 3.4 has finally been steadily cooling recently with the help of a +SOI (finally). Also, keep in mind that the equivalent RONI is already near -0.7, solidly into weak Niña. It wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with a moderate RONI based peak. Like clockwork and even earlier than I expected, predictable JB has just cooled his Nov-Mar forecast. Warning: this may just be a baby step on the way to more cooling…we’ll see. In 2020-21, he also had an initially mild E US that he drastically cooled in November. He has since at least 2014-5 not had a mild FINAL cold season forecast as 20-21’s was changed to NN (which in all fairness verified pretty well). Old one (8/22/24): New one (10/8/24): ~1F cooler from +2 to +1 in NE Megapolis, which isn’t trivial as +1 is NN to me meaning he’s ditched his somewhat mild NE fcast: @donsutherland1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 33 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: i made this on thursday night in bedminster with forkyfork You and forky, Will, could also make for interesting viewing. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 52 minutes ago, GaWx said: Like clockwork and even earlier than I expected, predictable JB has just cooled his Nov-Mar forecast. Warning: this may just be a baby step on the way to more cooling…we’ll see. In 2020-21, he also had an initially mild E US that he drastically cooled in November. He has since at least 2014-5 not had a mild FINAL cold season forecast as 20-21’s was changed to NN (which in all fairness verified pretty well). Old one (8/22/24): New one (10/8/24): ~1F cooler from +2 to +1 in NE Megapolis, which isn’t trivial as +1 is NN to me meaning he’s ditched his somewhat mild NE fcast: @donsutherland1 That’s a pretty dramatic cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted October 17 Share Posted October 17 never been the biggest fan of apple maps, but i gotta admit this feature is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 17 Author Share Posted October 17 Headed up to niagara falls this weekend. Anyone been recently? Good stuff to see? (Shutup @Rjay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 17 Share Posted October 17 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: Headed up to niagara falls this weekend. Anyone been recently? Good stuff to see? (Shutup @Rjay) I highly doubt that you will go across the Southern Tier but I was up in Buffalo this week for a conference and drove that way. Some really nice colors in the hill towns south and east of Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17 Share Posted October 17 On 10/13/2024 at 1:44 PM, GaWx said: Like clockwork and even earlier than I expected, predictable JB has just cooled his Nov-Mar forecast. Warning: this may just be a baby step on the way to more cooling…we’ll see. In 2020-21, he also had an initially mild E US that he drastically cooled in November. He has since at least 2014-5 not had a mild FINAL cold season forecast as 20-21’s was changed to NN (which in all fairness verified pretty well). Old one (8/22/24): New one (10/8/24): ~1F cooler from +2 to +1 in NE Megapolis, which isn’t trivial as +1 is NN to me meaning he’s ditched his somewhat mild NE fcast: @donsutherland1 Here's the type of post that makes the 2020 era Joe Bastardi dissatisfying: He knows that his forecast has changed and then he goes back to the one that has been replaced. He did a similar thing last year, dropping analogs that were in his final winter forecast and adding some analogs that weren't part of it showing a warm December to suggest that his forecast was on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 With much persistence, I managed to catch a glimpse of the comet tonight. Could not see it with the naked eye, but did view it with some binoculars. It certainly was not the kind you follow to see the next Messiah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 We now have Hurricane Isaac 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 20 Author Share Posted October 20 On 10/17/2024 at 7:02 PM, IrishRob17 said: I highly doubt that you will go across the Southern Tier but I was up in Buffalo this week for a conference and drove that way. Some really nice colors in the hill towns south and east of Buffalo. We went 17 and then made a stop at letchworth state park. Well worth the trip, its an awesome park. Colors were great in the hills there but northern orange and the western edges of sullivan and north were better than further north. Niagara isnt at peak yet, they seem on par with rockland honestly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 20 Author Share Posted October 20 Had to screenshot it cuz amwx sucks lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: We went 17 and then made a stop at letchworth state park. Well worth the trip, its an awesome park. Colors were great in the hills there but northern orange and the western edges of sullivan and north were better than further north. Niagara isnt at peak yet, they seem on par with rockland honestly. I just took a nice photo of the brilliant orange on one of my sugar maples and the deep red on my autumn blaze red maple...I then screenshotted it...still can't post it. Any chance this site gets upgraded to a more current decade? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 40 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I just took a nice photo of the brilliant orange on one of my sugar maples and the deep red on my autumn blaze red maple...I then screenshotted it...still can't post it. Any chance this site gets upgraded to a more current decade? Weird I'm still not having any issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 hours ago, BxEngine said: Had to screenshot it cuz amwx sucks lol I fixed the post for you old man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I just took a nice photo of the brilliant orange on one of my sugar maples and the deep red on my autumn blaze red maple...I then screenshotted it...still can't post it. Any chance this site gets upgraded to a more current decade? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 20 Author Share Posted October 20 1 hour ago, Rjay said: I fixed the post for you old man Its not age its laziness ya fuck lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Weird I'm still not having any issues Yeah, I don't think flip phones have this issue Its random, for some reason I'm having trouble with detailed foliage photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 I had to email the photo to myself as that gave me the option to reduce the size. I then saved the smaller file sized photo and was able to post that one. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 We’re doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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