Rjay Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 11 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Wonder what last year's forecast looked like by him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 I'm shocked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Wonder what he went with the year before that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Oh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 ..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 16 hours ago, Rjay said: ..... This guy is the definition of fake it till you make it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, Nibor said: This guy is the definition of fake it till you make it. Huge snowstorms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 This would be James’ go to. RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 BTW I got a swarm of these gnats in the neighborhood and I think some others here were sayng the same thing. These bites do not go away holy shit. Itchy AF. I just did that thing where I scratched until I bled and now I’m dying I want to saw my leg off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: BTW I got a swarm of these gnats in the neighborhood and I think some others here were sayng the same thing. These bites do not go away holy shit. Itchy AF. I just did that thing where I scratched until I bled and now I’m dying I want to saw my leg off. Yeah I mentioned that I had a couple hundred of them stuck on me by the end of my run yesterday. No bites though. They were all dead on me. I guess the sweat kills them quickly. I hope your bites get better quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: BTW I got a swarm of these gnats in the neighborhood and I think some others here were sayng the same thing. These bites do not go away holy shit. Itchy AF. I just did that thing where I scratched until I bled and now I’m dying I want to saw my leg off. Okay IDK if this is related but there was an insane amount of gnats down at Astoria Park this evening. I rarely ever deal with bugs there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 9 hours ago, Nibor said: Okay IDK if this is related but there was an insane amount of gnats down at Astoria Park this evening. I rarely ever deal with bugs there. I am sure its the same. Whitish looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 i've been following weather since i was old enough to read and i just cannot call a month that would have been solidly above normal back then "normal" 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 33 minutes ago, FPizz said: People like living in the past if i were in denial about climate change i would ignore the past too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if i were in denial about climate change i would ignore the past too Who is in denial about a warming climate at this stage? Even JB says we are warming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if i were in denial about climate change i would ignore the past too Has nothing to do with it. Move on, it isn't 2012 anymore. They make new normals for a reason. It would be funny on the news if they said today's normal high is 75, but if were living in 1950, it would 72. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 As has repeatedly been pointed out by @GaWx, WeatherBell's CFSv2 maps tend to be colder than those on other sites, including NCEP. Below is the latest example: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 We really need an interesting winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: We really need an interesting winter At least at this point with 3 duds in a row-expectations are low. But we'll see the same ol posts I'm sure...."The NAO is negative" "You're giving up? It's only ____ fill in preferred date" "Joe Schmoe said it's coming next month!" "this year looks like ____ (fill in snowy winter here)" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 the pattern will shift in 3 weeks (march 10th) and then we'll finally get our snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 12 minutes ago, cardinalland said: the pattern will shift in 3 weeks (march 10th) and then we'll finally get our snow I never understand how people don't get that just because a pattern looks amazing for a couple days that it can all go to crap in 1 run if one piece of the puzzle is off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I never understand how people don't get that just because a pattern looks amazing for a couple days that it can all go to crap in 1 run if one piece of the puzzle is off the other problem is that if the "Good pattern" hasn't arrived by March it's probably not coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: As has repeatedly been pointed out by @GaWx, WeatherBell's CFSv2 maps tend to be colder than those on other sites, including NCEP. Below is the latest example: Don and others, Like often is the case, these WB CFS maps almost always have S Lake Michigan about the coldest on the map and N Lake Mich/N Mich (only ~250 miles N) about the warmest. Then they get much colder to the north of that into S Canada. That right there’s a warning that WB CFS maps are highly flawed in addition to tending to be too cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: the other problem is that if the "Good pattern" hasn't arrived by March it's probably not coming... Last year it was supposed to come the 3rd week of February and the mid February stuff was supposed to be just an appetizer. I just can't get excited about any pattern change until it's inside 7 to 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Last year it was supposed to come the 3rd week of February and the mid February stuff was supposed to be just an appetizer. I just can't get excited about any pattern change until it's inside 7 to 10 days The whole winter was essentially waiting for a good pattern-went from late Dec to mid Jan-finally shows up but craps out after a week-then another long wait and we got 5 cold days in Feb then that was it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 22 minutes ago, GaWx said: Don and others, Like often is the case, these WB CFS maps almost always have S Lake Michigan about the coldest on the map and N Lake Mich/N Mich (only ~250 miles N) about the warmest. Then they get much colder to the north of that into S Canada. That right there’s a warning that WB CFS maps are highly flawed in addition to tending to be too cold. Yes. It seems to be a programming issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: As has repeatedly been pointed out by @GaWx, WeatherBell's CFSv2 maps tend to be colder than those on other sites, including NCEP. Below is the latest example: The comparison of this top left WB Feb map (avg of 10 days of runs) and the NCEP lower left Feb (again 10 days of runs) is very telling: -WB CFS has Chicago ~-6F and W TX NN -In stark contrast, NCEP CFS has Chicago only -1 to -1.5F and W TX +4 to +5F -This is further confirmation that WB CFS maps tend to be much colder than what the actual model output shows. This is a big problem because it’s misrepresenting what the CFS is actually predicting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 5 hours ago, Rjay said: We really need an interesting winter There are some encouraging signs. But I actually dropped by to remind NYC people to enter forecast contest on time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Like clockwork: It should be noted that the MJO cannot be predicted reliably at such timeframes. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Like clockwork: It should be noted that the MJO cannot be predicted reliably at such timeframes. This is consistent with the JB playbook: despite predicting an AN temperature winter, emphasize BN potential early based on extreme speculation as well as keep showing cold WB CFS winter maps as they appear, which are much colder than the model is really showing. (He probably doesn’t realize that though.) Shy away from showing CFS maps when the runs aren’t cold. Keep “monkey wrenching” to sew doubt in folks’ minds about a mild winter. Consider cooling the winter forecast by November just like was done for 2020-1. In all fairness that cooling actually ended up closer to reality but that’s bedside the point. Got to keep people clicking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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