Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[TheClimateChanger]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

https://www.npr.org/2023/09/07/1197943623/hurricane-idalia-flamingos-ohio-florida-texas-carolina

But how did they get to Wisconsin? Thats 1,000 miles from the track of Idalia. It would have been quicker for them to just fly home. And where did the one in New York come from? Are you telling me it overwintered in North America, because that would be even more bizarre?

[forkyfork]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

But how did they get to Wisconsin? Thats 1,000 miles from the track of Idalia. It would have been quicker for them to just fly home.

they kept flapping their wings until they got there

[donsutherland1]

Speaking of flamingos, one has reached Cape Cod.

[donsutherland1]

On 5/31/2024 at 9:53 AM, bluewave said:

How do we get the twitter X links to fully display rather than just show a link? I am seeing posts around the forum with it both ways. It just used to automatically embed before a few weeks ago. 

I now post screenshots.

[forkyfork]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I now post screenshots.

go to the twitter/x link. change the x to twitter. copy. paste as plain text

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

go to the twitter/x link. change the x to twitter. copy. paste as plain text

Thank you.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I now post screenshots.

I had to add an extra step to those instructions for it to work. I changed the x to twittter but didn’t get the paste as plain text message. So I hit the back key and closed out the post. Then hit post again and pasted and got the post as plain text message and then it worked. Been hearing this issue is happening to many forums across the web following twitter changing to X. I thank everyone for the suggestions and am glad I got it to work with the extra step I added.

 

 

[Dark Star]

On 6/3/2024 at 10:05 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Speaking of flamingos, one has reached Cape Cod.

I guess it won't be pink for very long?  I think their color is based on their diet?

[rclab]

14 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I guess it won't be pink for very long?  I think their color is based on their diet?

Well done, Dark Star. The question being, what color will our newest residents end up being…. Stay well, as always….

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I guess it won't be pink for very long?  I think their color is based on their diet?

Yes, the color is a function of diet. I'm not sure what it is eating up in Cape Cod.

[forkyfork]

i'm more excited by +20 850s at day 10 than universal agreement for 18" at hour 12

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i'm more excited by +20 850s at day 10 than universal agreement for 18" at hour 12

Lies

[forkyfork]

11 hours ago, Rjay said:

Lies

the holy grail of heat would be a derecho that knocks out everyone's power before the core of the heat moves in

[Stormlover74]

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/outbrkgame/outbrk-the-multiplayer-storm-chasing-experience/posts/4115067

David Daigle-CarignanCollaborator

May 31, 2024

Hello chasers! This month was huge for OUTBRK! We announced that we are releasing the game on Steam on June 28th.

 

 

[GaWx]

On 5/14/2024 at 7:30 AM, GaWx said:

 The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW.  
As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter:

Memphis climo: 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg

*Edit 1:57PM: note how once again far N Lake Mich/Lower Mich is amazingly warmer than  closeby surrounding areas, symptomatic of a WB (not CFS) bug. Also, much of the US E coast almost always is much warmer anomalywise than just inland on WB CFS maps, which also has to be due to a WB bug. Actually, I’ve noticed that for several years on WB CFS maps.

 Here we go again.   
 Yesterday, JB posted an insanely cold WB CFS 2m map for Jan-Mar 2025 as if it were worthy enough to show. The crazy map is shown in this American Wx post below (thank you @FPizzfor letting the members know about this insanity):

 For those who haven't been following this, the WB versions of the CFS model have been way out in left field compared to both the Tropical Tidbits versions (yes the SAME model!) as well as other long ranged models. One thing the WB CFS maps have literally been showing are polar opposite SST anomalies to TT CFS for the same periods! JB is posting these likely due to a combo of his off the chart weenieness and for increased WB clients/clicks. He's sunk to a new low imho. This map is literally showing the coldest Jan-Mar 2025 in the E 2/3 of the US going back to the late 1800s and by a significant margin. He picks and chooses the coldest individual WB CFS 2m runs to post. And they're not even real!

 There obviously are serious flaws in the WB algos related to its CFS output. JB needs to be called out for this nonsense as often as he posts flawed/fake crapola like this. This is bottom of the barrel.

  Note that a good number of these extreme cold E US WB CFS maps have been showing near normal in/near N Lower Michigan/E Upper MI while many of the same ones also show the strongest cold anomalies just 200-250 miles to the S near Chicago. That’s obviously from a flaw.

*Edit: I don’t think JB even realizes that WB CFS output is flawed. I’m confident he doesn’t compare it to TT CFS.

@donsutherland1

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Here we go again.   
 Yesterday, JB posted an insanely cold WB CFS 2m map for Jan-Mar 2025 as if it were worthy enough to show. The crazy map is shown in this American Wx post below (thank you @FPizzfor letting the members know about this insanity):

 For those who haven't been following this, the WB versions of the CFS model have been way out in left field compared to both the Tropical Tidbits versions (yes the SAME model!) as well as other long ranged models. One thing the WB CFS maps have literally been showing are polar opposite SST anomalies to TT CFS for the same periods! JB is posting these likely due to a combo of his off the chart weenieness and for increased WB clients/clicks. He's sunk to a new low imho. This map is literally showing the coldest Jan-Mar 2025 in the E 2/3 of the US going back to the late 1800s and by a significant margin. He picks and chooses the coldest individual WB CFS 2m runs to post. And they're not even real!

 There obviously are serious flaws in the WB algos related to its CFS output. JB needs to be called out for this nonsense as often as he posts flawed/fake crapola like this. This is bottom of the barrel.

  Note that a good number of these extreme cold E US WB CFS maps have been showing near normal in/near N Lower Michigan/E Upper MI while many of the same ones also show the strongest cold anomalies just 200-250 miles to the S near Chicago. That’s obviously from a flaw.

*Edit: I don’t think JB even realizes that WB CFS output is flawed. I’m confident he doesn’t compare it to TT CFS.

@donsutherland1

That he's again hinting at cold and pulling the most extreme (even flawed maps) to illustrate his thinking is no longer surprising. It damages what's left of his credibility, but he seems to place clicks above credibility at this stage of his career. He is nowhere close to what he once was at Accuweather.

[forkyfork]

brown lawns, withered gardens, and sad weenies. i can't wait 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

brown lawns, withered gardens, and sad weenies. i can't wait 

forky did you have anything to do with this? As always …..

 

[Dark Star]

It almost seems that the 2-4 week forecasts are becoming more accurate lately?  Then again, our below normal pattern still generated slightly above normal temperatures, and the average is based on the previous 20 years which is above normal?

[forkyfork]

 

 

[forkyfork]

 

[forkyfork]

this cold front is very upsetting 

[LibertyBell]

On 6/10/2024 at 9:06 AM, forkyfork said:

the holy grail of heat would be a derecho that knocks out everyone's power before the core of the heat moves in

why cant we get strong westerly flow anymore? we only got one day of heat here

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

this cold front is very upsetting 

southerly flow is very upsetting, what can you do about nuking the Atlantic Ocean?  It's polluted anyway let's get rid of it.

[LibertyBell]

On 6/15/2024 at 9:20 PM, forkyfork said:

 

 

Notice how we're getting left out here, can you make a cosmic blowtorch strong enough to evaporate the Atlantic?

Asking for a friend.

[donsutherland1]

This is a difficult post to make. However, it is a necessary one given the importance of data integrity and possibility others may not be fully aware of what is going on.

As winter approaches and JB issues his seasonal forecast (probably a cold and snowy one, especially if he locks in his most recently hinted 2013-14 and 2014-15 analogs), one should beware that he has developed a tendency in "invent" data for lack of a better word to describe his practice. In short, if he makes claims about data to verify parts of his seasonal forecast, which follows two catastrophically bad winter seasonal forecasts, one should verify the claims.  They can no longer be taken at face value.

For example, below are recent claims he made about Phoenix. Almost certainly, they were made to dismiss the magnitude of its growing heat based on multiple tweets toward that end. For perspective concerning the heatwave story to which he reacted, last year he dismissed what would become the record 31-day heatwave cited by AP. Early on, he expected it to fall short of the record (18 days at the time). Once it occurred, he asserted that the previous record 18-day 1974 heatwave was more severe. In fact, the 31-day heatwave was hotter on all objective measures: average high, average low, average mean, highest maximum and highest minimum temperatures.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is a difficult post to make. However, it is a necessary one given the importance of data integrity and possibility others may not be fully aware of what is going on.

As winter approaches and JB issues his seasonal forecast (probably a cold and snowy one, especially if he locks in his most recently hinted 2013-14 and 2014-15 analogs), one should beware that he has developed a tendency in "invent" data for lack of a better word to describe his practice. In short, if he makes claims about data to verify parts of his seasonal forecast, which follows two catastrophically bad winter seasonal forecasts, one should verify the claims.  They can no longer be taken at face value.

For example, below are recent claims he made about Phoenix. Almost certainly, they were made to dismiss the magnitude of its growing heat based on multiple tweets toward that end. For perspective concerning the heatwave story to which he reacted, last year he dismissed what would become the record 31-day heatwave cited by AP. Early on, he expected it to fall short of the record (18 days at the time). Once it occurred, he asserted that the previous record 18-day 1974 heatwave was more severe. In fact, the 31-day heatwave was hotter on all objective measures: average high, average low, average mean, highest maximum and highest minimum temperatures.

-July 2023 was by far the hottest month of any on record with 102.7. Old record: 99.1 Aug 2020. 
- June 1974 18 days: hottest SINGLE day avg 100.5

- So we know they’re not even close. The only Q I’d have is how much of the difference could be attributed to increased UHI:

-Metro was 1.1 million 1974 but was 5.7 million 2023.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23099/phoenix/population

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-July 2023 was by far the hottest month of any on record with 102.7. Old record: 99.1 Aug 2020. 
- June 1974 18 days: hottest SINGLE day avg 100.5

- So we know they’re not even close. The only Q I’d have is how much of the difference could be attributed to increased UHI:

-Metro was 1.1 million 1974 but was 5.7 million 2023.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23099/phoenix/population

Without doubt, UHI plays a prominent role. Unfortunately, Phoenix has no nearby USCRN sites for closer comparison. I suspect that most of the pre-2000 warming was due to UHI, but most of the 2000-present warming is due to climate change.

Although not a perfect proxy for Phoenix, Tucson has a nearby USCRN site (Tucson 11W). Summers have warmed at the USCRN site by 0.83° per decade since 2003 (beginning of its record). At Tucson, summers have warmed by nearly 1.26° per decade. As USCRN sites are on areas that are not being developed and have overall stable site characteristics, they provide a good measure for changes attributed solely to climate change. Comparing trends between the two sites, just under two-thirds of Tucson's summer warming (2003-2023) was attributable to climate change; nearly one-third was attributable to its expanding UHI.

To cross check, I looked further at Tucson's population change from 2003-2023. Population is a good proxy for UHI. Tucson's population rose 33.8%. That is almost identical to the share of Tucson's excess warming relative to the warming at the USCRN site.

[Roger Smith]

Just a reminder to the NYC crew to enter July temperature forecast contest tomorrow, with this weekend's timing I anticipate change of month will not be top of mind ... and contest is getting closer after June's scoring. 

[MJO812]

Hallmark has Christmas Shows right now.