Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring?

New York, NY

Newark, NJ

Hartford, CT

Philadelphia, PA

Burlington, VT

Harrisburg, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

Buffalo, NY

Washington - Dulles, VA

 

 

the 1990s were much hotter and drier dude, compare this spring to spring 1991 in New York City that was one of the hottest summers too, along with 1993 and 2010.

Check out maximum length of heatwaves 1990s vs now.  Specifically between 1991-2002.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring?

New York, NY

Newark, NJ

Hartford, CT

Philadelphia, PA

Burlington, VT

Harrisburg, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

Buffalo, NY

Washington - Dulles, VA

 

 

2010 was definitely the hottest on record, but 1991, 1993, 1999  and 2002 came in right after that. 1983 held the record before that.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Blocking is always warm when it links up with the Southeast ridge and becomes more south based. But it results in frequent backdoor cold fronts in the spring. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs with the warm departures ultimately winning out.

We had very strong blocking in the spring during 2010 also. But it build down SW to the Great Lakes which made it the warmest spring blocking pattern on record. The ridge axis wound up to our west so we had less onshore flow than this spring.Since with more more S to SW flow. This spring the ridge axis is more into Eastern New England allowing more frequent onshore flow and backdoor cold frontal passages.
 

I remember seeing this map with correlations, with the midatlantic being warmer with a -NAO and new england being warmer with a +NAO and we were in between (that is much less of a correlation, at least during the spring and summer.)

2010 was definitely our warmest spring and summer on record going by 90 degree days and several years in the 90s were right behind-- specifically 1991 and 1993 as well as 1999 and 2002. 1983 was another one that was extremely hot with number of 90 degree days.

 

 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the 1990s were much hotter and drier dude, compare this spring to spring 1991 in New York City that was one of the hottest summers too, along with 1993 and 2010.

Check out maximum length of heatwaves 1990s vs now.  Specifically between 1991-2002.

For 90° days they were much warmer than even 2010. There was a very +AO +NAO pattern during springs like 1986, 1991, and 2002. So if we ever got a pattern like that in our much warmer 2020s climate Newark would have its first spring with 10+ 90° days. The only thing that has been preventing this has been all the blocking during recent springs. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	1991	8	0
2	1986	6	0
3	2002	5	0
-	1959	5	0
4	2022	4	0
-	2021	4	0
-	2018	4	0
-	2000	4	0
-	1987	4	0
-	1977	4	0
-	1965	4	0
-	1939	4	0
-	1936	4	0
5	2023	3	0
-	2017	3	0
-	2016	3	0
-	2010	3	0
-	2009	3	0
-	2001	3	0
-	1999	3	0
-	1996	3	0
-	1993	3	0
-	1992	3	0
-	1985	3	0
-	1974	3	0
-	1964	3	0
-	1962	3	0
-	1934	3	0
-	1931	3	0

 

[snowman19]

Textbook -PDO, strengthening and getting even more well defined. JB’s +PDO wishcast isn’t looking too good….

[Volcanic Winter]

@snowman19

When do you foresee the PDO actually shifting? Do you think we stay predominantly -PDO for a while or do you think a shift may happen within several years? 

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@snowman19

When do you foresee the PDO actually shifting? Do you think we stay predominantly -PDO for a while or do you think a shift may happen within several years? 

We are very clearly in a long term negative PDO cycle, when this one ends is anyone’s guess. Any volcano updates?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

We are very clearly in a long term negative PDO cycle, when this one ends is anyone’s guess. Any volcano updates?

We have actually seen a shift in the way the -PDO has been manifesting in recent years. It’s now defined by the 2nd EOF which is being driven by the extreme marine heatwave east of Japan. So this is the first El Niño around  +2.0 or higher with a -2.09 PDO in April. 
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w

In this study, we evaluate the ocean warming pattern derived from four decades of satellite measurements. We find widespread strong subtropical ocean warming, concentrating mostly on the western ocean basins. In contrast to these observations, studies of paleoclimate suggest that the greatest ocean warming occurs at higher latitudes. By pairing the observed warming pattern with SST evolution in long-term climate simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is constrained by ocean dynamics of surface convergence (downwelling, subtropical gyres) and divergence (upwelling, subpolar gyres) rather than being dominated by internal variabilities, such as the 

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable.

In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first 

[snowman19]

This solar max is extremely impressive in terms of sunspots, solar flares and now geomag activity. This is the highest geomag activity we’ve seen since the early 2000’s:
 

[snowman19]

This solar max is extremely impressive in terms of sunspots, solar flares and now geomag activity. This is the highest geomag activity we’ve seen since the early 2000’s:
 

[forkyfork]

christmas should be illegal

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

I guess the exact severity is impossible to forecast?   I saw a media hyped headline, predicting (potential) internet blackouts.

[LibertyBell]

On 5/9/2024 at 6:40 AM, snowman19 said:

We are very clearly in a long term negative PDO cycle, when this one ends is anyone’s guess. Any volcano updates?

it's around a 20-25 yr cycle I think

we had this same cycle back in the 70s to the first half of the 90s, it flipped in the mid 90s.

1967-68 to 1992-1993 was a -PDO?

That means a 25 year cycle

 

I'm thinking it will flip again around 2042.

We have awhile-- but it doesn't mean that we won't get good winters, they'll just be extremely rare.

We still had 1977-78 in the middle of that cycle but that was the only really good winter.  Aside from that we had an HECS in February 1983 so that's the only other possibility- one HECS to make the entire winter near or slightly above average for snowfall.

 

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's around a 20-25 yr cycle I think

we had this same cycle back in the 70s to the first half of the 90s, it flipped in the mid 90s.

1967-68 to 1992-1993 was a -PDO?

That means a 25 year cycle

 

I'm thinking it will flip again around 2042.

We have awhile-- but it doesn't mean that we won't get good winters, they'll just be extremely rare.

We still had 1977-78 in the middle of that cycle but that was the only really good winter.  Aside from that we had an HECS in February 1983 so that's the only other possibility- one HECS to make the entire winter near or slightly above average for snowfall.

 

The 1940’s-1970’s were a strong -PDO cycle, then we went into a +PDO cycle at the tail end of the 70’s. The end of the 1970’s till around 1995 was a -AMO cycle

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 1940’s-1970’s were a strong -PDO cycle. The end of the 1970’s till around 1995 was a -AMO cycle

Is there any fixed or approximate length to these cycles that we could calculate how long they last?

Looks like the AMO cycle is also important for our winters.

[snowman19]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Is there any fixed or approximate length to these cycles that we could calculate how long they last?

 

Going by past history, decades

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Going by past history, decades

And did the recent -PDO start somewhere around 2017 (right after the super el nino)?

And as for the AMO did that switch to negative a few years ago too?

Thanks, it's good to know where we stand.

After seeing that giant sunspot on the last day we had sunshine here (Wednesday) I know we're in for a HUGE solar storm this weekend (and maybe Northern Lights even down here).  But it's not looking good for next winter at all.

 

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

And did the recent -PDO start somewhere around 2017 (right after the super el nino)?

And as for the AMO did that switch to negative a few years ago too?

Thanks, it's good to know where we stand.

After seeing that giant sunspot on the last day we had sunshine here (Wednesday) I know we're in for a HUGE solar storm this weekend (and maybe Northern Lights even down here).  But it's not looking good for next winter at all.

 

No, the AMO is currently positive and very strongly positive at that

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No, the AMO is currently positive and very strongly positive at that

I thought that + part of the cycle was supposed to be ending soon? Hmmm lol

When did the PDO switch to negative though, was that around 2017?

 

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No, the AMO is currently positive and very strongly positive at that

 Somehow there’s a WB 12Z 5/10 CFS NDJ map that JB shows with very cold E 2/3 of the US including 5-7F BN centered over W VA along with a +PDO. Meanwhile, here’s the avg of the last 12 CFS runs from TT with practically the opposite including a -PDO:

[Volcanic Winter]

A little backyard Aurora action???

I’m pretty blown away, but then again given the intensity of the solar storm it’s not even that surprising. During the 1859 Carrington Event, aurorae were visible all the way down to the Caribbean. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

A little backyard Aurora action???

I’m pretty blown away, but then again given the intensity of the solar storm it’s not even that surprising. During the 1859 Carrington Event, aurorae were visible all the way down to the Caribbean. 

wow what time and what direction did you look-- North? and how bright were they with your eyes?

[snowman19]

We are experiencing the most extreme geomag storm possible…G5

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/severe-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-unusual-solar-event/

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

We are experiencing the most extreme geomag storm possible…G5

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/severe-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-unusual-solar-event/

so more amazing northern lights?

THIS IS GREAT NEWS!

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow what time and what direction did you look-- North? and how bright were they with your eyes?

About 3am facing the northern horizon. The green was very visible to the naked eye, and there was a faint pink / purple hue to space in the area it developed in the picture. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

About 3am facing the northern horizon. The green was very visible to the naked eye, and there was a faint pink / purple hue to space in the area it developed in the picture. 

That's absolutely amazing-- they were people saying they looked better in NJ than they ever looked from Iceland lol

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

About 3am facing the northern horizon. The green was very visible to the naked eye, and there was a faint pink / purple hue to space in the area it developed in the picture. 

blue and purple are the rarest colors to see in Northern Lights, they are from ionized nitrogen!

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Somehow there’s a WB 12Z 5/10 CFS NDJ map that JB shows with very cold E 2/3 of the US including 5-7F BN centered over W VA along with a +PDO. Meanwhile, here’s the avg of the last 12 CFS runs from TT with practically the opposite including a -PDO:

JB has already decided that this winter is going to be severely cold and snowy. No matter what happens between now and November, he will find any excuse humanly possible to predict that

[snowman19]

The new Copernicus model run has started to back off the strength of the +IOD this summer and most have it neutral by September. Not a surprise since a +IOD La Niña is extremely rare. My guess is that the IOD goes negative this fall which would fit Niña climo

@bluewave

[bluewave]

On 5/8/2024 at 12:54 PM, Terpeast said:

Although I didn’t think they were related before (couldn’t find a convincing enough link), I’m starting to believe that the AMO cycle leads to more SE ridge link ups with HL blocking. Do we know that if this happened in previous +AMO cycles let’s say, prior to 1980 or so?

It could be a combination of the record warm Atlantic SSTs along with the record warmth over the Western Pacific causing these further south Greenland blocks during the 2020s to link up with the Southeast ridge. In the 1950-1970 era of strong -PNA patterns, this wasn’t the case when there was a strong Greenland block. There was usually an upper low over the East at the same time there was a deeper -PNA trough out West.