forkyfork Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 On 1/24/2024 at 9:52 AM, forkyfork said: sometimes i'll see pheasant or partridge when birding before a hawk wipes them out because they're farm raised and have no survival instinct and hang out in the open from my birder friend today. pheasant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Laki was also the only time I've heard of fluorine gas being released into the air.... fluorine is extremely deadly! Laki was extremely deadly to the population of Iceland, and their livestock. And the cloud of sulfur hanging in the troposphere drifted over to Europe by way of the UK and did a lot of damage to agricultural workers. 120 Tg’s of sulfur was outputted by that event (compared to 20 for Pinatubo). Plausibly only a fraction of that made it beyond the tropopause and caused a volcanic winter, imagine if it all did… Hekla also releases fluorine when it erupts, IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 33 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Laki was extremely deadly to the population of Iceland, and their livestock. And the cloud of sulfur hanging in the troposphere drifted over to Europe by way of the UK and did a lot of damage to agricultural workers. 120 Tg’s of sulfur was outputted by that event (compared to 20 for Pinatubo). Plausibly only a fraction of that made it beyond the tropopause and caused a volcanic winter, imagine if it all did… Hekla also releases fluorine when it erupts, IIRC. I find this absolutely fascinating. Have you heard about the deadly lake in Cameroon that killed over 1500 people in just a few minutes when it exhaled CO2? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos_disaster On 21 August 1986, a limnic eruption at Lake Nyos in northwestern Cameroon killed 1,746 people and 3,500 livestock.[1] The eruption triggered the sudden release of about 100,000–300,000 tons (1.6 million tons, according to some sources[who?]) of carbon dioxide (CO2).[2][3] The gas cloud initially rose at nearly 100 kilometres per hour (62 mph; 28 m/s) and then, being heavier than air, descended onto nearby villages, suffocating people and livestock within 25 kilometres (16 mi) of the lake.[4][5] A degassing system has since been installed at the lake, with the aim of reducing the concentration of CO2 in the waters and therefore the risk of further eruptions. Along with the Lake Monoun disaster two years earlier, it is one of only two recorded limnic eruptions in history.[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Monoun#Disaster Lake Monoun is a crater lake (maar) in West Province, Cameroon, that lies in the Oku Volcanic Field. On August 15, 1984, a limnic eruption occurred at the lake, which resulted in the release of a large amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that killed 37 people. At first, the deaths remained unexplained, and causes such as terrorism were suspected. Further investigation and a similar event two years later at Lake Nyos led to the currently accepted explanation.[1] Disaster Lake Monoun located in the West Region of Cameroon Several people reported hearing a loud noise on August 15, 1984, around 22:30. A gas cloud reportedly emanated from a crater in the eastern part of the lake. The resulting deaths of residents in a low-lying area are believed to have occurred between 03:00 and dawn. The victims were said to have skin burns, which reports later clarified as "skin damage" such as discoloration. Survivors reported that the whitish, smoke-like cloud smelled bitter and acidic. Vegetation was flattened around the eastern part of the lake, probably by a large wave of up to 5 m (16 ft) height.[1]: 7 Although Lake Monoun is near the center of a volcanic field that includes at least 34 recent craters, the subsequent investigation found that the event was not caused by an eruption or sudden ejection of volcanic gas from the lake. Rather, emission of carbon dioxide in a limnic eruption is thought to be to blame. The cloud's smell and skin damage to victims were not fully explained. Some theories attribute the skin problems to a combination of preexisting conditions and routine postmortem effects like livor mortis, another medical interpretation says the body's metabolic rate was reduced inducing a severely restricted circulation in capillary vessels of the skin, resulting in necrosis,[1]: 6 although there is no clear consensus. Among the victims were some of the riders in a truck carrying twelve people. The truck's engine stopped working as it became starved of oxygen, and the people inside the truck got out and were killed. Two people sitting on top of the truck survived, because their elevated position allowed them to breathe – carbon dioxide is heavier than air (oxygen and nitrogen) which causes it to stay close to the ground. Two years later, on 21 August 1986, a similar and even more deadly event occurred at Lake Nyos, about 100 km (62 mi) north-northwest, killing 1,746 people and more than 3,000 livestock.[2] Along with Lake Nyos and Lake Kivu, Lake Monoun is one of three lakes in the world known to have high concentrations of gas dissolved deep below the surface and which have the right conditions for a limnic eruption. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Kivu Lake Kivu is one of the African Great Lakes.[2] It lies on the border between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, and is in the Albertine Rift, the western branch of the East African Rift. Lake Kivu empties into the Ruzizi River, which flows southwards into Lake Tanganyika.[3] In 1894, German explorer and officer Gustav Adolf von Götzen was the first European to discover the lake. Kivu lake shoreline at Gisenyi, Rwanda In the past, Lake Kivu drained toward the north, contributing to the White Nile. About 13,000 to 9,000 years ago, volcanic activity blocked Lake Kivu's outlet to the watershed of the Nile.[4] The volcanism produced mountains, including the Virungas, which rose between Lake Kivu and Lake Edward, to the north.[5] Water from Lake Kivu was then forced south down the Ruzizi. This, in turn, raised the level of Lake Tanganyika, which overflowed down the Lukuga River.[4] Lake Kivu is one of three lakes in the world, along with Lake Nyos and Lake Monoun, that undergo limnic eruptions (where overturn of deepwater stratified layers releases dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2). The lake's bottom also contains methane (CH4), meaning if a limnic eruption occurs, the lives of the two million people living nearby would be in danger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 38 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Laki was extremely deadly to the population of Iceland, and their livestock. And the cloud of sulfur hanging in the troposphere drifted over to Europe by way of the UK and did a lot of damage to agricultural workers. 120 Tg’s of sulfur was outputted by that event (compared to 20 for Pinatubo). Plausibly only a fraction of that made it beyond the tropopause and caused a volcanic winter, imagine if it all did… Hekla also releases fluorine when it erupts, IIRC. I wonder if it all did or there was another eruption like that somewhere it would be enough to create a cascading reaction and trigger another ice age? Wasn't there an era when volcanic eruptions were much more common? Something must have triggered them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 8 hours ago, forkyfork said: from my birder friend today. pheasant Flacco the Owl is dead stupid humans.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/nyregion/flaco-owl-central-park-zoo-dead.html He was able to avoid vehicles by sticking largely to rooftops, water towers and other elevated elements of the built environment after leaving Central Park last fall. But the risk that he would be killed in a building strike was great: As many as 230,000 birds a year die in New York City when they hit windows, according to the National Audubon Society. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/24/flaco-new-york-citys-beloved-owl-dies-after-striking-building News of the owl’s death caused an intense reaction on social media. More than 1,000 users reposted the zoo’s announcement of Flaco’s death on X, formerly known as Twitter. “This is an immense loss,” read one comment that summarised the sentiments of many on the platform. “I’m so grateful for everyone who came together to witness Flaco’s incredible journey.” Another X user suggested tearing down the building where Flaco crashed. The Eurasian eagle-owl is one of the larger species. Flaco’s wingspan was reported to be about 6ft (1.8m). Federal officials estimate that up to one billion birds in the US die annually after accidentally flying into buildings’ windows. In October 2020, ornithologist Stephen Ambrose wrote on LinkedIn that there was evidence light glare from city buildings’ windows could blind owls momentarily and increase their risk of crashing into the structures, especially at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/nyregion/flaco-owl-central-park-zoo-dead.html He was able to avoid vehicles by sticking largely to rooftops, water towers and other elevated elements of the built environment after leaving Central Park last fall. But the risk that he would be killed in a building strike was great: As many as 230,000 birds a year die in New York City when they hit windows, according to the National Audubon Society. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/24/flaco-new-york-citys-beloved-owl-dies-after-striking-building News of the owl’s death caused an intense reaction on social media. More than 1,000 users reposted the zoo’s announcement of Flaco’s death on X, formerly known as Twitter. “This is an immense loss,” read one comment that summarised the sentiments of many on the platform. “I’m so grateful for everyone who came together to witness Flaco’s incredible journey.” Another X user suggested tearing down the building where Flaco crashed. The Eurasian eagle-owl is one of the larger species. Flaco’s wingspan was reported to be about 6ft (1.8m). Federal officials estimate that up to one billion birds in the US die annually after accidentally flying into buildings’ windows. In October 2020, ornithologist Stephen Ambrose wrote on LinkedIn that there was evidence light glare from city buildings’ windows could blind owls momentarily and increase their risk of crashing into the structures, especially at night. He would have died eventually from arsenic poisoning. He was subsisting exclusively on rats which are loaded with arsenic from eating bait traps. The rats are building an immunity to rat poison over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: He would have died eventually from arsenic poisoning. He was subsisting exclusively on rats which are loaded with arsenic from eating bait traps. The rats are building an immunity to rat poison over time. That absolutely sucks. I read that he was getting quieter with time, so maybe he was sick already. At the same time, light pollution kills over 200,000 birds a year in Manhattan alone, so we should find a way to use more "smart lighting" which doesn't waste electricity and cause health and environmental issues. I see complaints are up from building residents who complain they can't sleep because of all the wasteful light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 14 hours ago, forkyfork said: from my birder friend today. pheasant Since we're talking about birds, I figured I'd post this.... the high intelligence of crows and ravens has always impressed me, they plan for the future and understand what their reflection is, as well understanding the concept of zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 14 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Flacco the Owl is dead stupid humans.... the "free flaco!" idiots are responsible. they actively interfered with capture efforts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 6 hours ago, forkyfork said: the "free flaco!" idiots are responsible. they actively interfered with capture efforts True but to be honest, no animal deserves to be caged. If there was a way, the best way would have been to return him to his natural habitat with the rest of his kind. If he lived a year in NYC he probably could have managed just fine in the wild with the rest of his kind. Like they did with Otto the Octopus who used his toys to break free from his enclosure and squirted water at the surveillance cameras to shortcircuit them, who was eventually released into the ocean. Then again, the level of intelligence of octopi is absolutely amazing-- and stunned scientists who thought cephalopods couldn't be this intelligent.... and now we know they build large settlements on the seafloor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 17 hours ago, LibertyBell said: True but to be honest, no animal deserves to be caged. If there was a way, the best way would have been to return him to his natural habitat with the rest of his kind. If he lived a year in NYC he probably could have managed just fine in the wild with the rest of his kind. Like they did with Otto the Octopus who used his toys to break free from his enclosure and squirted water at the surveillance cameras to shortcircuit them, who was eventually released into the ocean. Then again, the level of intelligence of octopi is absolutely amazing-- and stunned scientists who thought cephalopods couldn't be this intelligent.... and now we know they build large settlements on the seafloor. I don't know, hamsters seem to enjoy their life, living in our kitchen when I was a child. He was very attentive and affectionate. My mother used to feed him different things she was cooking. Some people "cage" dogs. That I don't agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 On 2/25/2024 at 2:30 PM, forkyfork said: the "free flaco!" idiots are responsible. they actively interfered with capture efforts Looks like NYC is going to put some protections in place for birds because of what happened to Flaco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 15 hours ago, Dark Star said: I don't know, hamsters seem to enjoy their life, living in our kitchen when I was a child. He was very attentive and affectionate. My mother used to feed him different things she was cooking. Some people "cage" dogs. That I don't agree with. Hamsters are good that way because they are small and don't need much room. A large flying avian predator is a different story though. Smuggling in birds into the country is big business unfortunately. A few years ago at JFK a shipment of finches came in from some country in Africa packed inside those hair curling things (I dont know what they are called.) The shipment with over 400 of these tiny colorful birds was intercepted and sent back and so were the people who did it (they were deported.) You have to see how these birds are in the wild to see how happy and free they are. I've seen documentaries on parrots in cages in terrible living conditions where they are picking at their own feathers because they are depressed and trying to kill themselves. The more intelligent the animal the less happy it will be in a cage. Parrots are near the peak of avian intelligence, about the same intelligence as a 7 year old child (similar to ravens, octopus, elephants, dolphins, chimps, etc). They're more intelligent than cats or dogs (which are about equivalent to the intelligence of a 5 year old child), but none of these higher order sentient creatures live happily in cages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 What I find so fascinating about octopus though and their settlements on the sea floor and why I talk so much about them is because they show us there is a different way to a higher intelligence than the mammalian/avian warm blooded route. These complex creatures are cold blooded invertebrates and yet they are so amazingly intelligent that it shows us that if intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe it may be in a form that we wouldn't even recognize at first if we somehow ran into it. Parrots and ravens too-- the usual refrain about birds is because they have small heads they must be unintelligent-- and "bird brained"-- it's definitely not true. Parrots and ravens actually have large complex brains and not all of it is in their heads-- birds' brains extend downward into their necks too. I believe what fueled rapid brain development in these creatures is a high protein diet. Ravens and octopi of course eat meat and parrots eat high protein nuts. And a high intelligence was necessary for all these creatures; in the case of birds, it was originally to process their extreme visual acuity and later for socialization skills and in the case of the octopus to be able to escape predators while also catch prey in its challenging environment and was also later adopted for socialization. All of the creatures I've mentioned are also known to make and use tools which also facilitated rapid brain development (it's a form of biofeedback, you need a complex brain to make tools and alter your environment but once you start doing that the mere act of doing that also makes for a more complex brain and higher intelligence.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: What I find so fascinating about octopus though and their settlements on the sea floor and why I talk so much about them is because they show us there is a different way to a higher intelligence than the mammalian/avian warm blooded route. These complex creatures are cold blooded invertebrates and yet they are so amazingly intelligent that it shows us that if intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe it may be in a form that we wouldn't even recognize at first if we somehow ran into it. Parrots and ravens too-- the usual refrain about birds is because they have small heads they must be unintelligent-- and "bird brained"-- it's definitely not true. Parrots and ravens actually have large complex brains and not all of it is in their heads-- birds' brains extend downward into their necks too. I believe what fueled rapid brain development in these creatures is a high protein diet. Ravens and octopi of course eat meat and parrots eat high protein nuts. And a high intelligence was necessary for all these creatures; in the case of birds, it was originally to process their extreme visual acuity and later for socialization skills and in the case of the octopus to be able to escape predators while also catch prey in its challenging environment and was also later adopted for socialization. All of the creatures I've mentioned are also known to make and use tools which also facilitated rapid brain development (it's a form of biofeedback, you need a complex brain to make tools and alter your environment but once you start doing that the mere act of doing that also makes for a more complex brain and higher intelligence.) So you're saying I should have had a high protein diet in my early years? A little late for that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Wow, negative digits in central and northern Quebec, but looks like it won't do us any good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 @LibertyBell(think you’ll like this) Apparently the Akahoya eruption in Japan is now regarded as the largest of the Holocene. This was always known as a VEI 7, but it was recently revised all the way up to potentially over 400 cubic kilometers of erupted volume. For reference that’s getting close to half the size of the last Yellowstone supereruption! Not too shabby for only several thousand years ago. More than double Tambora’s size, though it’s a different eruption style (recurrent caldera system vs large stratovolcano suffering a catastrophic drainout). These types of recurrent calderas are more prone to the massive VEI 7 - 8 eruptions, like Yellowstone, Valles Caldera, Clear Lake, & Campi Flegrei. Japan is also a hotbed of large scale and intense volcanism due to a unique geologic setting with oddly clashing plates. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/volcanos/underwater-volcano-eruption-7300-years-ago-is-the-largest-in-recorded-history I just want to note in general that constraining tephra-fall isopachs accurately and actually computing a semi accurate total erupted volume for some of these eruptions is a monumentally difficult task. Lots of literature actually cites different sizes for many of the same eruptions, and the figures are often in flux. It wasn’t long ago Toba was estimated all the way up to as large as 5000 cubic kilometers which is frankly mind boggling. I have the opinion that many historic eruptions were actually a bit bigger than the figures we use to describe them today which tend to be more conservative. There are some absolute monsters in the semi recent past, events that would catastrophically rattle modern humanity were they to happen today. Once you get into the VEI 6 space, a couple times larger than Pinatubo (closer to Krakatau and Novarupta), you get into eruptions that are just unthinkably large and would be absolutely wild for us to experience in real time in the cell phone age. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: @LibertyBell(think you’ll like this) Apparently the Akahoya eruption in Japan is now regarded as the largest of the Holocene. This was always known as a VEI 7, but it was recently revised all the way up to potentially over 400 cubic kilometers of erupted volume. For reference that’s getting close to half the size of the last Yellowstone supereruption! Not too shabby for only several thousand years ago. More than double Tambora’s size, though it’s a different eruption style (recurrent caldera system vs large stratovolcano suffering a catastrophic drainout). These types of recurrent calderas are more prone to the massive VEI 7 - 8 eruptions, like Yellowstone, Valles Caldera, Clear Lake, & Campi Flegrei. Japan is also a hotbed of large scale and intense volcanism due to a unique geologic setting with oddly clashing plates. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/volcanos/underwater-volcano-eruption-7300-years-ago-is-the-largest-in-recorded-history I just want to note in general that constraining tephra-fall isopachs accurately and actually computing a semi accurate total erupted volume for some of these eruptions is a monumentally difficult task. Lots of literature actually cites different sizes for many of the same eruptions, and the figures are often in flux. It wasn’t long ago Toba was estimated all the way up to as large as 5000 cubic kilometers which is frankly mind boggling. I have the opinion that many historic eruptions were actually a bit bigger than the figures we use to describe them today which tend to be more conservative. There are some absolute monsters in the semi recent past, events that would catastrophically rattle modern humanity were they to happen today. Once you get into the VEI 6 space, a couple times larger than Pinatubo (closer to Krakatau and Novarupta), you get into eruptions that are just unthinkably large and would be absolutely wild for us to experience in real time in the cell phone age. wow speaking of which I wanted to ask you about Yellowstone. So there's this rather funny scifi series called Resident Alien in which the good alien is trying to stop the bad aliens from funneling a large quantity of water into the Yellowstone caldera, he said they are trying to destroy all life on the planet by causing it to erupt. But then he also said that even if he stopped them that Yellowstone could erupt "at any time" because it erupts on average every 600,000 years and it's been 643,000 years since its last eruption. He said the bad aliens were hastening its eruption and because of them it could erupt within one year but even if he was able to stop them it could erupt anyway since it was "due"-- and in his crazy sense of humor he thought it was funny if he stopped them but it erupted anyway. Anyway that part isn't true-- that Yellowstone is "overdue" to erupt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: wow speaking of which I wanted to ask you about Yellowstone. So there's this rather funny scifi series called Resident Alien in which the good alien is trying to stop the bad aliens from funneling a large quantity of water into the Yellowstone caldera, he said they are trying to destroy all life on the planet by causing it to erupt. But then he also said that even if he stopped them that Yellowstone could erupt "at any time" because it erupts on average every 600,000 years and it's been 643,000 years since its last eruption. He said the bad aliens were hastening its eruption and because of them it could erupt within one year but even if he was able to stop them it could erupt anyway since it was "due"-- and in his crazy sense of humor he thought it was funny if he stopped them but it erupted anyway. Anyway that part isn't true-- that Yellowstone is "overdue" to erupt? So I have a decent amount I could say about Yellowstone. It’s true that statistically it’s very slightly overdue for its next large caldera forming episode. It’s not true that there’s any major significance to that with respect to current US risk. First of all Yellowstone actually last erupted properly 70kya in a massive rhyolitic effusive eruption that was something like 100 cubic kilometers of thick rhyolite lava flows. Massive on a scale well beyond anything in historic times, Laki was 15 cubic kilometers remember of basaltic lava. Rhyolite is like volcanic peanut butter to basalt’s warmed up honey. So it had a pretty substantial eruption not too long ago that is not often mentioned or discussed in the context of it being overdue. I would imagine some of the magma that would be contributing toward the next supereruption was released in this event and may have delayed the next one by some degree, though this specifically is just logical speculation on my part. These types of massive volcanoes go off when they’re ready and not before, regardless of the statistics of their previous eruptions. Recent studies determined Yellowstone is not currently thought to possess a melt fraction (percent of magma body that is molten and in an eruptible state) that would support a supereruption right now. But that can change, right? The last Yellowstone supereruption is now known to have been triggered by two massive basaltic intrusions of hot, juvenile magma very deep underground. These two pulses took place across several decades, and should they occur to they would be imminently noticeable / detectable. There would be massive inflation within the caldera and a whole continuous swarm of deep volcanic quakes, along with periods of tremor represented magma on the move. The entire caldera would be very clearly alive, instead of its current very sleepy state. We would know. It would be unmistakably “awake.” That injection of hot basalt would remelt some of the magma chamber and creative an enormous instability that leads to a blowout. In earnest, Yellowstone is not even in the top tier of volcanoes I think are most likely or most capable of causing human harm in the near future. Ioto / Iwo Jima is an under the radar choice, a giant pimple in the ocean under Japan that is growing at an alarming rate, some of the fastest uplift known at a volcanic system - for centuries. Its last caldera eruption was very large and would’ve sent a catastrophic tsunami all over the Pacific. It’s very capable of doing that again and probably will in the not too distant future. You can actually see the striations in the island where the sea level line was mere decades ago, going all the way back for centuries. It doesn’t even have the same topography as when it was landed on during WWII. Way scarier than Yellowstone right now IMO. But Yellowstone captures the hearts of Americans and is guaranteed to get clicks, so it’s frequently pushed as a catastrophe waiting to happen. Could be 1,000 years, 10,000, or 500,000 before the next supereruption. All are way beyond immediate worry. It’s almost certainly not happening tomorrow, near 0% chance. When you start hearing about unprecedented uplift, an endless intense quake swarm at depth, and signs of unmistakable unrest that continue for years unabated, then we have something to worry about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: It’s never a lock that we see a hurricane locally, but odds are certainly higher than normal this season. I fully expect a parade of major hurricanes coming out of the MDR this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 On 2/29/2024 at 4:11 PM, Volcanic Winter said: So I have a decent amount I could say about Yellowstone. It’s true that statistically it’s very slightly overdue for its next large caldera forming episode. It’s not true that there’s any major significance to that with respect to current US risk. First of all Yellowstone actually last erupted properly 70kya in a massive rhyolitic effusive eruption that was something like 100 cubic kilometers of thick rhyolite lava flows. Massive on a scale well beyond anything in historic times, Laki was 15 cubic kilometers remember of basaltic lava. Rhyolite is like volcanic peanut butter to basalt’s warmed up honey. So it had a pretty substantial eruption not too long ago that is not often mentioned or discussed in the context of it being overdue. I would imagine some of the magma that would be contributing toward the next supereruption was released in this event and may have delayed the next one by some degree, though this specifically is just logical speculation on my part. These types of massive volcanoes go off when they’re ready and not before, regardless of the statistics of their previous eruptions. Recent studies determined Yellowstone is not currently thought to possess a melt fraction (percent of magma body that is molten and in an eruptible state) that would support a supereruption right now. But that can change, right? The last Yellowstone supereruption is now known to have been triggered by two massive basaltic intrusions of hot, juvenile magma very deep underground. These two pulses took place across several decades, and should they occur to they would be imminently noticeable / detectable. There would be massive inflation within the caldera and a whole continuous swarm of deep volcanic quakes, along with periods of tremor represented magma on the move. The entire caldera would be very clearly alive, instead of its current very sleepy state. We would know. It would be unmistakably “awake.” That injection of hot basalt would remelt some of the magma chamber and creative an enormous instability that leads to a blowout. In earnest, Yellowstone is not even in the top tier of volcanoes I think are most likely or most capable of causing human harm in the near future. Ioto / Iwo Jima is an under the radar choice, a giant pimple in the ocean under Japan that is growing at an alarming rate, some of the fastest uplift known at a volcanic system - for centuries. Its last caldera eruption was very large and would’ve sent a catastrophic tsunami all over the Pacific. It’s very capable of doing that again and probably will in the not too distant future. You can actually see the striations in the island where the sea level line was mere decades ago, going all the way back for centuries. It doesn’t even have the same topography as when it was landed on during WWII. Way scarier than Yellowstone right now IMO. But Yellowstone captures the hearts of Americans and is guaranteed to get clicks, so it’s frequently pushed as a catastrophe waiting to happen. Could be 1,000 years, 10,000, or 500,000 before the next supereruption. All are way beyond immediate worry. It’s almost certainly not happening tomorrow, near 0% chance. When you start hearing about unprecedented uplift, an endless intense quake swarm at depth, and signs of unmistakable unrest that continue for years unabated, then we have something to worry about. Thanks, so 70,000 years there was a smaller Yellowstone eruption? I wonder if that had any effect on the climate back then? Wow, Iwo Jima sounds like it's very capable of creating a repeat of the Christmas 2004 Tsunami. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s never a lock that we see a hurricane locally, but odds are certainly higher than normal this season. I fully expect a parade of major hurricanes coming out of the MDR this season. It's always low, and we seem to be out of the era that get major east coast hurricanes coming this far north, I'd expect yet another gulf coast and florida hurricane season. We're also very tucked in so any hurricanes making it this far north are likely to hit Nova Scotia instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's always low, and we seem to be out of the era that get major east coast hurricanes coming this far north, I'd expect yet another gulf coast and florida hurricane season. We're also very tucked in so any hurricanes making it this far north are likely to hit Nova Scotia instead. If you look at the history of majors in the north east there is one about every 70 years. So I would hardly say we have switched out of that pattern. On the contrary we are due. It’s only anger of time. Cat 3 winds will decimate the power grid, and make sandy look like a walk in the park: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: If you look at the history of majors in the north east there is one about every 70 years. So I would hardly say we have switched out of that pattern. On the contrary we are due. It’s only anger of time. Cat 3 winds will decimate the power grid, and make sandy look like a walk in the park: the 50s were an amazing time, I wonder what was going on then that no matter how many or few total TCs there were, there were always multiple ones (including majors) hitting the NE coast. the heatwaves during the 50s were also very long and we had multiple 100+ degree long heatwaves which we don't see anymore-- from June through September! Worcester even got hit with an F5 tornado during one of those extremely hot years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the 50s were an amazing time, I wonder what was going on then that no matter how many or few total TCs there were, there were always multiple ones (including majors) hitting the NE coast. the heatwaves during the 50s were also very long and we had multiple 100+ degree long heatwaves which we don't see anymore-- from June through September! Worcester even got hit with an F5 tornado during one of those extremely hot years! It’s above my skill level but I’m sure someone can go pack and look at the synoptic pattern in 54 specifically. It’s really just a roll of the dice. A pattern conducive to a north east landfall exists multiple times a year, it’s just a matter of lining up a cane with said pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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