Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[Juliancolton]

Kp notifications lag behind by hours and are generally pretty useless. Gotta check real-time solar wind data

[Dark Star]

8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I hadn’t looked into it but I have a location based aurora app on my phone for when we go to Iceland that sends push notifications with the KP and cloudcover when viewing is possible in your area, and I didn’t receive anything. I’ve gotten them here in Jersey before, too. It went off for one of those earlier storms this year where they were possibly visible, but it was a cloudy night and most of our area is simply too bright (and they’re likely to be low on the northern horizon at our latitude unless it’s like Kp 8-9).

Thanks.  What time of the year to you go to Iceland and can see the Aurora?

[Volcanic Winter]

9 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Kp notifications lag behind by hours and are generally pretty useless. Gotta check real-time solar wind data

It’s not just based on KP, it pushes that info along with other things. I do look at those things, I just hadn’t for this presumed event.

Was just mentioning the app never sent a push notification which implies it wasn’t a big deal, but as mentioned I hadn’t looked further into it this time. 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Thanks.  What time of the year to you go to Iceland and can see the Aurora?

We usually go in early Icelandic winter, around the beginning of November. We’ve been four times now and I’ve seen the lights on each trip. It’s addictive and spectacular. 
 

The best display from our last trip in 2022 was when we made it back to Reykjavik from the north. They’re still incredibly visible even with the (albeit small) city lighting. 
 

Just some quick iPhone captures, I have a lot on my DSLR I still need to process  

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Check this new paper about a potential forthcoming AMOC collapse:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

“We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range).”

This is pretty wild. I know the AMOC has a fast and a slow state, and I believe the last time the AMOC was believed to be in the slow state was the Younger Dryas just prior to the start of the Holocene, caused likely by the meltwater pulse of the Laurentide ice sheet. 

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Check this new paper about a potential forthcoming AMOC collapse:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

“We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range).”

This is pretty wild. I know the AMOC has a fast and a slow state, and I believe the last time the AMOC was believed to be in the slow state was the Younger Dryas just prior to the start of the Holocene, caused likely by the meltwater pulse of the Laurentide ice sheet. 

Very cool. I've been following this for a few years now. I guess we should all make sure we get to the beach this year to enjoy the warm water. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Check this new paper about a potential forthcoming AMOC collapse:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

“We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range).”

This is pretty wild. I know the AMOC has a fast and a slow state, and I believe the last time the AMOC was believed to be in the slow state was the Younger Dryas just prior to the start of the Holocene, caused likely by the meltwater pulse of the Laurentide ice sheet. 

I understand the basics, but that paper is for Math PhDs. Care to elaborate on real world effects?

[gravitylover]

Europe freezes

[coastalplainsnowman]

Out of the blue question here..  You now how today a lot of posters despair about climate change being the cause of our recent lack of snow, and fear that our days of snowy winters are numbered? In the late 70s when all the climate talk was about a "new ice age",  are there any snow / winter lovers here old enough to remember that, and were really pumped up about the chance of awesome snowy winters for awhile before things really went downhill and the metro area became a permanent block of ice?  Because I think that would be right on brand for many, including myself.

 

 

[gravitylover]

IMO, We just finished up our ~20 year snowy transition period a few years ago. Unless this AMOC shutdown happens we're pretty much done with winter outside of isolated periods. 

[Volcanic Winter]

The AMOC likely collapsed before the start of the Holocene during the Younger Dryas which was a significant climate excursion. I don’t necessarily think the impact would be as severe today, but I do believe it will be a substantial re-alignment of climate norms. 

As I’ve read it from other sources, the AMOC has a fast and a slow state that are considered stable. We’re currently in the fast state, but with notable slowing occurring. If that slowing continues, it will eventually quickly crash into its other slower stable configuration with less effective heat transport. There are beliefs the ultimate impact may be minimal, but I don’t necessarily subscribe to that line of thinking. It’s a major ocean - atmospheric system and we pretty much know what happened the last time it slowed, though as mentioned I don’t think impacts would be 1:1. 

If this new paper’s conclusions are valid and ultimately supported elsewhere, I believe this is something that needs to be taken very seriously. The IPCC was always conservative with the AMOC and last I read stated it was not in danger of collapsing at current trajectories for a couple centuries or so, IIRC. Though that would’ve been based on evidence that is now several years outdated in light of the new stuff coming out. 

15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I understand the basics, but that paper is for Math PhDs. Care to elaborate on real world effects?

[Volcanic Winter]

11 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Out of the blue question here..  You now how today a lot of posters despair about climate change being the cause of our recent lack of snow, and fear that our days of snowy winters are numbered? In the late 70s when all the climate talk was about a "new ice age",  are there any snow / winter lovers here old enough to remember that, and were really pumped up about the chance of awesome snowy winters for awhile before things really went downhill and the metro area became a permanent block of ice?  Because I think that would be right on brand for many, including myself.

 

 

This is sort of unrelated directly, but tangentially related to what you’re talking about. 

I follow a well published university astrophysicist that writes for and helps run a geology blog; a very knowledgeable, multi-disciplinary dude with a lot of interesting perspectives. 

He believes based on comparing the duration of our current interstadial(length of the Holocene) with past interstadial in the recent Quaternary, along with the direction we’re heading along the Milankovitch cycles that help govern glaciation, that the LIA was potentially the beginning of the slide toward the next proper stadial (glacial, Pleistocene like climate). And that human activity effectively aborted it with carbon heat energy, which is the same mechanism that has pulled the earth out of ice ages throughout the epochs. In a way, our activity had an even bigger impact than we realize. 

Take this with a huge grain of salt, it’s a speculative opinion from a smart dude and nothing more. But it’s interesting food for thought. 

And regarding the ‘ice age’ fears during the 70’s, well climate science simply improved dramatically over time. And that era was when sulfur and other aerosols were still exerting considerable influence in suppressing the impact of rising CO2 (not unlike sustained volcanic influence), so it’s not wholly surprising to see a couple decade downturn with that in mind.

Climate science only improves as we move forward and learn more about the various feedback mechanisms built into our planet. It’s also clearly established how CO2 has been correlated to every natural climate excursion, both warm and cold, going back throughout the Quaternary. There are many natural processes that help raise and lower CO2 over the millennia, but what we’re doing is causing CO2 to skyrocket at an unprecedented rate. The people that deny human caused climate change by talking about natural earth cycles are ‘half right,’ in a sense, while missing extremely important context with respect to what that actually means and how that relates to the Anthropocene.

[bluewave]

Looks like one of the U.S.high end QLCS Derecho type events in Switzerland. A gust  to 135 mph is the real deal.

 

 

[Santa Claus]

european severe weather is getting intense very quickly 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I understand the basics, but that paper is for Math PhDs. Care to elaborate on real world effects?

I believe we would continue to see the record warm SSTs along the  NW Atlantic increase as the current slows more and warm water piles up. The cool area south of Greenland would continue to increase with less warm water transport. Stefan Rhamstorf  has been doing much of the research. 
 

 

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/

 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Yeah. This is why I’ve refrained from talking about ‘impacts’ of the AMOC switching to its other stable configuration.

We know the Younger Dryas AMOC slowdown returned the planet to a colder state, but that it may have been regional (which is not surprising). We’re in a different climate state now with different starting parameters, and I’m not educated enough on the subject to speculate on the effect of a complete AMOC slowdown in the modern era. I know this is somewhat contentious, though.

With that said, I would be very surprised if it did not cause a multi-century shift in climate norms across several regions, along with unexpected changes in others. 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah. This is why I’ve refrained from talking about ‘impacts’ of the AMOC switching to its other stable configuration.

We know the Younger Dryas AMOC slowdown returned the planet to a colder state, but that it may have been regional (which is not surprising). We’re in a different climate state now with different starting parameters, and I’m not educated enough on the subject to speculate on the effect of a complete AMOC slowdown in the modern era. I know this is somewhat contentious, though.

With that said, I would be very surprised if it did not cause a multi-century shift in climate norms across several regions, along with unexpected changes in others. 

But no end to the WAR on steroids and endless lake cutters yet. Got it.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

european severe weather is getting intense very quickly 

 

[Stormlover74]

gfs next week

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah. This is why I’ve refrained from talking about ‘impacts’ of the AMOC switching to its other stable configuration.

We know the Younger Dryas AMOC slowdown returned the planet to a colder state, but that it may have been regional (which is not surprising). We’re in a different climate state now with different starting parameters, and I’m not educated enough on the subject to speculate on the effect of a complete AMOC slowdown in the modern era. I know this is somewhat contentious, though.

With that said, I would be very surprised if it did not cause a multi-century shift in climate norms across several regions, along with unexpected changes in others. 

Nice under 10 minute presentation on the topic today.

 

 

[JustinRP37]

9 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

And regarding the ‘ice age’ fears during the 70’s, well climate science simply improved dramatically over time. And that era was when sulfur and other aerosols were still exerting considerable influence in suppressing the impact of rising CO2 (not unlike sustained volcanic influence), so it’s not wholly surprising to see a couple decade downturn with that in mind.

It’s also true that very few were actually calling for an ice age. That is a myth that has been perpetuated since the 70s. A Time article and a few other pieces but most studies showed warming. Even Exxon had studies showing the warmth that they downplayed starting around then. 
 

https://skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm

[Santa Claus]

we’re heading to the bad place

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

we’re heading to the bad place

Ohio?

[Santa Claus]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Ohio?

desolation and ruin, the very breast of nature from which humanity has nursed for thousands of years turned into a curdled stream of horrors we cannot yet conceive of even as the architects of its corruption.  a future of endless decline and suffering as billions of crabs fight to escape a bucket that only grows taller, our collective breath quickening and evermore desperate as we suffocate and scream to the last.  the dead lucky, the survivors mere wraiths devoid of any semblance of civilization.  still not as bad as fucking ohio dude are you kidding have you been there

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

desolation and ruin, the very breast of nature from which humanity has nursed for thousands of years turned into a curdled stream of horrors we cannot yet conceive of even as the architects of its corruption.  a future of endless decline and suffering as billions of crabs fight to escape a bucket that only grows taller, our collective breath quickening and evermore desperate as we suffocate and scream to the last.  the dead lucky, the survivors mere wraiths devoid of any semblance of civilization.  still not as bad as fucking ohio dude are you kidding have you been there

I have 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

But no end to the WAR on steroids and endless lake cutters yet. Got it.  

Waters off Miami were around 102 at last check.  Can you imagine getting a sea breeze and the temps still being over 100?

Maybe we'll get that one day around here and JFK will be 100 degrees on a sea breeze lol.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/23/2023 at 11:51 PM, Juliancolton said:

Kp notifications lag behind by hours and are generally pretty useless. Gotta check real-time solar wind data

Just picked up a new camera and I'm pretty excited about it, considering taking this one on my solar eclipse trip next April.  It should be good for other types of astrophotography too.

Panasonic FZ300 with a 25-600mm lens max aperture f/2.8 throughout the zoom range and 4K photo mode (8 MP at 30 fps for up to 30 minutes and 4 MP at 60 fps).

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Having a good camera and learning how to shoot with it is such a relaxing and rewarding hobby. Enjoy Liberty. Go to Iceland and get some aurora shots! I’ll give you all the tips. 

[jm1220]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Waters off Miami were around 102 at last check.  Can you imagine getting a sea breeze and the temps still being over 100?

Maybe we'll get that one day around here and JFK will be 100 degrees on a sea breeze lol.

I won’t want to be around for it. But it’s probably in our future. When that happens there likely won’t be a JFK anymore since it’ll be underwater. 

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Waters off Miami were around 102 at last check.  Can you imagine getting a sea breeze and the temps still being over 100?

Maybe we'll get that one day around here and JFK will be 100 degrees on a sea breeze lol.

 The water hit an amazing 101.1F for a high late Monday afternoon at the Manatee Bay buoy near Miami! This occurred after almost wall to wall sunshine and little rainfall prevailed for July up to that point. However, a weak surface trough subsequently brought the most rainfall and least sunshine in weeks yesterday to those shallow waters resulting in a much cooler SST low of 84.0F this morning:

More on Manatee Bay SSTs from the link below:

 The record for the Manatee Bay site is 102 degrees. It was set on Aug. 15, 2017. Going further back, Zierden said the site recorded a temperature of 100 degrees in 2010.

"Keep in mind that the observations in Manatee Bay are in shallow water in a closed-off cove with dark seagrass on the bottom," Zierden said. "I would not consider them a "sea surface temperature," as that implies open ocean."

https://www.news-press.com/story/weather/2023/07/26/record-water-temperatures-in-florida-not-unprecedented-manatee-bay-climate-center-keys-everglades/70468485007/
 

------------------
OTOH the much more stable SST from the Key West buoy, which is on deeper water, is still near a very warm 90 and is indicative of the overall marine heatwave in the area: