Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[MJO812]

On 5/15/2023 at 9:14 AM, Brian5671 said:

another 2 weeks or so and the worst of the tree pollen is done...

My car is covered with pollen 

[Roger Smith]

A reminder to the usual crew that June temperature forecast contest deadline approaches. Also a general notice to NYC members that a seasonal hurricane season contest is open for entries to June 4th in the tropical forum. 

 

Link at

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

[MJO812]

CANSIPS looks good for the winter

[rclab]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

CANSIPS looks good for the winter

Good morning Anthony. I salute your resilience. Now, I can’t stop humming a certain Rogers and Hammerstein optimism tune. Stay well, as always ….

[BxEngine]

Happy birthday @IrishRob17

How old? Todays dew point?

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Happy birthday @IrishRob17

How old? Todays dew point?

Oh, someone has jokes I see! Thanks, I’m 21… with 30 year’s experience. 

[MJO812]

I'm watching on YouTube 

[donsutherland1]

Summer has barely begun and Joe Bastardi is forecasting a cold and snowy Winter 2023-2024. His key assumption is that the evolving El Niño event will be a Modoki El Niño. Modoki events feature warm Region 3.4 anomalies and cold Region 1+2 anomalies. The latest ECMWF forecast calls for a basin-wide El Niño. At this time, it is far too soon to be sure about ENSO details (type and strength) other than the idea that an El Niño event will very likely develop. Seasonal forecasts typically have low skill, particularly when it comes to snowfall. Seasonal forecasts (modeling and forecaster) at this range do not have skill.

 

[rclab]

5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Oh, someone has jokes I see! Thanks, I’m 21… with 30 year’s experience. 

Happy Birthday Rob. May you and your love be quality active while you enjoy the celebration of  the tri-centennial,  in the decade of your golden anniversary.  Oh, and I have 55 years experience. As always ….

[Nibor]

[gravitylover]

10 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Oh, someone has jokes I see! Thanks, I’m 21… with 30 year’s experience. 

14 with 42 although I should probably say 18 with 38 so I'm old enough to drink. 

4 hours ago, rclab said:

Happy Birthday Rob. May you and your love be quality active while you enjoy the celebration of  the tri-centennial,  in the decade of your golden anniversary.  Oh, and I have 55 years experience. As always ….

Showoff

[IrishRob17]

19 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Is one of them wishing for snow and mid teens?

[Cygnus X-1]

This June so far feels like April here on Long Island! 

[Santa Claus]

On 6/1/2023 at 7:57 AM, MJO812 said:

CANSIPS looks good for the winter

how much for my house

[forkyfork]

spring banger thread

[Cygnus X-1]

Looking at the CONUS radar on intellicast....seems a lot of precipitation is in "retro-grade"

East to west throughout.

[forkyfork]

thank u phone for a cherished memory of a plant dying from too much rain 

[STORMANLI]

Not meant to trivialize any hardships from the Canadian forest fires, but it brought to mind a song from the 1977.

Smoke From A Distant Fire

by Sanford-Townsend Band

And the line:

Cause your eyes had a mist from the  smoke of a distant fire

Plagiarize skies for eyes

My apologies to Sanford-Townsend Band.  Great song.

[Santa Claus]

wonder if my allergy meds also reduce the sneezing from smoke

[rclab]

11 hours ago, STORMANLI said:

Not meant to trivialize any hardships from the Canadian forest fires, but it brought to mind a song from the 1977.

Smoke From A Distant Fire

by Sanford-Townsend Band

And the line:

Cause your eyes had a mist from the  smoke of a distant fire

Plagiarize skies for eyes

My apologies to Sanford-Townsend Band.  Great song.

Good evening STORMANLI. You had the courage to say it first. I thought of the 1959 Platters hit. “Smoke Gets In Your Eyes”. Stay well, as always …

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Im good with the smoke. 
 

im probably in the minority lol

@BxEngine walking around "good with the smoke"...

[IrishRob17]

This smoke ain't nothin’!  When I was a kid we walked to school in air quality three times as bad as yesterday. We walked through flying embers!  We’d come back inside from recess covered in ash! 

[BxEngine]

On 6/7/2023 at 9:21 AM, IrishRob17 said:

@BxEngine walking around "good with the smoke"...

The smoke is definitely stifling my usual seasonal allergies. Ill take this over the sneezing and itchy eyes any day lol

[rclab]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

This smoke ain't nothin’!  When I was a kid we walked to school in air quality three times as bad as yesterday. We walked through flying embers!  We’d come back inside from recess covered in ash! 

Good morning Rob. Please don’t tell me that the crossing guards had pitchforks. Stay well and smoke free. As always …..

[Dan76]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

This smoke ain't nothin’!  When I was a kid we walked to school in air quality three times as bad as yesterday. We walked through flying embers!  We’d come back inside from recess covered in ash! 

Up hill both ways don't forget.

[BucksCO_PA]

Only in the Philly forum could an historic smoke outbreak enveloping the region segue into a discussion about old dive bars & strip joints.

[Wannabehippie]

On 6/2/2023 at 1:16 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Summer has barely begun and Joe Bastardi is forecasting a cold and snowy Winter 2023-2024. His key assumption is that the evolving El Niño event will be a Modoki El Niño. Modoki events feature warm Region 3.4 anomalies and cold Region 1+2 anomalies. The latest ECMWF forecast calls for a basin-wide El Niño. At this time, it is far too soon to be sure about ENSO details (type and strength) other than the idea that an El Niño event will very likely develop. Seasonal forecasts typically have low skill, particularly when it comes to snowfall. Seasonal forecasts (modeling and forecaster) at this range do not have skill.

 

He has to get those page views/clicks some how.

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of record low seasonal snowfall for New York City (Central Park) and Bridgeport and the development of what could become a strong, and perhaps basin-wide El Niño event, it is worth looking back at how seasonal snowfall changed over the past 30 years relative to the prior 30-year period (1991-2020 vs. 1961-1990). In many parts of the Middle Atlantic region, seasonal snowfall had declined and variability of seasonal snowfall had increased. In the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions, seasonal snowfall had increased and variability in seasonal snowfall had increased.

Bangor's figures have likely been impacted by the increasingly frequent and significant marine heatwaves off Maine's coast.

As the climate continues to warm, cities such as New York City and Newark will likely see a decline in seasonal snowfall. That transition may already be in its early stages. By the mid-2030s, New York City's average seasonal snowfall could slip toward or below 20.0" based on rising winter temperatures. Mean seasonal snowfall and mean temperatures constructed from a regression equation (coefficient of determination: 0.836). When mean winter temperatures rise above 40.0°, seasonal snowfall totals could decrease and variability could also begin to decrease. That is the case with Atlanta and Richmond shown on the above chart and Greensboro listed on the below chart. Additional areas with mean winter temperatures of 40.0°F or above with decreased seasonal snowfall and decreased seasonal snowfall variability include Charleston (SC), Charlotte, and Wilmington (NC).

Not all areas will likely see decreasing snowfall over the next decade. Central and northern New England could see additional increases in seasonal snowfall along with increased variability, as their winters remain colder than the thresholds at which seasonal snowfall begins to decline through at least the 2020s.

 

[jm1220]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of record low seasonal snowfall for New York City (Central Park) and Bridgeport and the development of what could become a strong, and perhaps basin-wide El Niño event, it is worth looking back at how seasonal snowfall changed over the past 30 years relative to the prior 30-year period (1991-2020 vs. 1961-1990). In many parts of the Middle Atlantic region, seasonal snowfall had declined and variability of seasonal snowfall had increased. In the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions, seasonal snowfall had increased and variability in seasonal snowfall had increased.

Bangor's figures have likely been impacted by the increasingly frequent and significant marine heatwaves off Maine's coast.

As the climate continues to warm, cities such as New York City and Newark will likely see a decline in seasonal snowfall. That transition may already be in its early stages. By the mid-2030s, New York City's average seasonal snowfall could slip toward or below 20.0" based on rising winter temperatures. Mean seasonal snowfall and mean temperatures constructed from a regression equation (coefficient of determination: 0.836). When mean winter temperatures rise above 40.0°, seasonal snowfall totals could decrease and variability could also begin to decrease. That is the case with Atlanta and Richmond shown on the above chart and Greensboro listed on the below chart. Additional areas with mean winter temperatures of 40.0°F or above with decreased seasonal snowfall and decreased seasonal snowfall variability include Charleston (SC), Charlotte, and Wilmington (NC).

Not all areas will likely see decreasing snowfall over the next decade. Central and northern New England could see additional increases in seasonal snowfall along with increased variability, as their winters remain colder than the thresholds at which seasonal snowfall begins to decline through at least the 2020s.

 

Excellent analysis as always. NYC is in a spot where the Miller A El Nino storms can slam us (1/25/16) but also completely rip us off by a hair like 2/6/10, and the late bloomer Miller B's same thing-12/30/00, Lindsay Storm 1969 vs Juno 2015 and the Jan 2022 storm. Maybe we trend to a place where we have to rely on favorable El Nino patterns like DC now and Boston becomes the "hedge both ways" climate we have as the storm tracks head north, and generally become warmer? No doubt as there's more moisture available in a warmer climate and there is still enough cold air for snow, Northern New England and probably Northern Midwest would benefit. We've been stuck in a Nina like background state for the last few years due in large part to the crazy warm W PAC, wonder if that can switch this year. Any background Nina state is bad for us unless there's some compensating factor like a -NAO, although this "winter" was so horrible that was blown away too. Pendulums swing eventually and our good stretch of winters up to 2015-16 was bound to reverse. Now it's the West/upper Midwest turn I guess. 

The "variable" aspect of snowfall is I assume due to the lack of smaller 2-4" type clipper systems that would hit back in the 80s-into the 90s, now it's these all or nothing patterns that are by nature variable. The endless cutters/SWFE the background Nina state gives us might've been a couple/few inches on the front end to rain 50 years ago vs just rain now, but I remember when there were at least several decent clippers per winter, 2003-04 was the year of those clippers and they're gone now. 

[donsutherland1]

In a follow up to yesterday's post concerning snowfall trends (mainly in the Northeast), below are the climate model and actual 10-season winter temperature averages for New York City.