nwohweather Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 4 hours ago, frostfern said: Cells will be moving crazy fast though. I'd definitely study the road networks ahead of time in the target area. It’s the Midwest so squares with the occasional river road 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 Waiting for that “Ryan Hall Ya’ll” thumbnail on YT “This is going to be epic” 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 He's too busy posing for selfies in Rolling Fork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 6 minutes ago, WaryWarren said: He's too busy posing for selfies in Rolling Fork. To be fair, he also has raised a lot of money for the community. You can't fault him for that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 This definitely looks like a very significant event for Friday that would cover a good portion of the western part of the subforum. The instability has only trended upward run to run for the areas of MO/IA/IL, with an incredibly dynamic wind field. I would suspect we see a day 2 MDT come out tonight for a large area all the way down to Memphis. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: This definitely looks like a very significant event for Friday that would cover a good portion of the western part of the subforum. The instability has only trended upward run to run for the areas of MO/IA/IL, with an incredibly dynamic wind field. I would suspect we see a day 2 MDT come out tonight for a large area all the way down to Memphis. Thanks, was wondering if that was coming. Looks like a pretty high impact day. Always appreciate met analysis on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 37 minutes ago, andyhb said: To be fair, he also has raised a lot of money for the community. You can't fault him for that. Fair enough, did not know that. I respect that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 6 minutes ago, Chambana said: Thanks, was wondering if that was coming. Looks like a pretty high impact day. Always appreciate met analysis on here. Not the place in this thread but I am very much watching Tuesday/Wednesday for an even bigger potential in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Not the place in this thread but I am very much watching Tuesday/Wednesday for an even bigger potential in the region. And that one I should definitely be free for so it's game on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 39 minutes ago, Stebo said: Not the place in this thread but I am very much watching Tuesday/Wednesday for an even bigger potential in the region. Chiming in from outside the region. Friday looks like a sure bet for a large swath of severe weather - straight line wind damage specifically. Next Tuesday as you suggest might be even worse a the front is pegged to be more robust. Until the jet ramps down every front is going to spin these storms in roughly same area. Every five days for the first two weeks of April at this point seems like a good bet for a large swath of significant severe weather (if not outright tornadic) in the MS to OH valleys. The setup is ideal for spinning tops. /goes back to lurking for the Friday event to unfold 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Predictably, the 00z HRRR is insane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Just now, andyhb said: Predictably, the 00z HRRR is insane. Lots more instability up into the Midwest than the NAMs, although the hodographs are surprisingly fairly straight, at least early on, in the face of such a powerhouse low. Any thoughts as to why that might be? ...oh, and of course, a simulated supercell into the Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 We wedging boys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Just now, madwx said: We wedging boys Actually, the hodographs/wind barbs on the forecast soundings (with less clockwise curvature/veering with height than I'd like) remind me of two setups last year...one of which produced a violent, long-track discrete supercell tornado, and the other did not (but still produced strong embedded/QLCS tornadoes). 3/5 and 5/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted March 30, 2023 Author Share Posted March 30, 2023 Not to put too much stock into it (and this is more so my compensation for not having as deep of a knowledge in meteorology) but the end of the 0z HRRR has STP values ranging from 6-12 over much the Chicagoland area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 The OZ WRF has a long track UH swath that starts in NE AR and tracks directly through Mayfield, KY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, SluggerWx said: The OZ WRF has a long track UH swath that starts in NE AR and tracks directly through Mayfield, KY. Is this model generally historically accurate? Legit asking I’m not familiar with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Bimodal D2 MDT, one closer to the surface low with a 10 hatched tornado risk (wind driven), the other in the Mid South with a 15 hatched tornado risk. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A bi-modal regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale upper trough will be oriented from the northern plains to the southern Rockies early Friday. The trough will continue to deepen as it shifts east toward the MS Valley by 00z, and oriented from the upper Great Lakes to the TN Valley vicinity by Saturday morning. With time, a closed low is expected to develop over eastern SD/NE/IA and a 100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. Intense southwesterly low-level flow also will overspread the Mid-South through much of the Midwest, with an 850 mb jet around 65-80 kt forecast by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a deepening low centered over eastern NE/western IA Friday morning will shift east across IA through the afternoon before lifting toward southern Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front will extend from the low into eastern KS/central OK/west-central TX at 12z, and shift east across much of the Midwest and Mid-South. Ahead of the eastward-advancing front, strong southerly flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. Near-60 F dewpoints are expected as far north as eastern IA into northern IL during the afternoon. The warm sector will become more narrow/pinched off with north and east extent toward the Ohio Valley during the evening/overnight hours. However, near 60 F dewpoints are still expected in a narrow corridor ahead of the surging cold front into far southern IN and central KY. Richer boundary-layer moisture will reside from the Mid-South into the Lower-MS/TN Valleys where low to mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... The strongest forcing/DCVA will be located over northern portions of the Mid-MS Valley close to the surface low/triple point. The expectation is that rapid destabilization through the morning (1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE) and arrival of stronger forcing by early afternoon will result in initial supercell development near the surface low. All severe hazards will be possible with these fast moving storms, including a couple of strong tornadoes, intense damaging gusts and large hail. Cellular activity should spread across eastern IA/northern MO and into northwest IL before tendency toward upscale growth into linear convection ensues with eastward extent as convection develops south and east ahead of the front from east-central MO into northern/central IL. Damaging gusts will become more prominent with linear convection, though QLCS tornadoes will also be possible. Additional storms will likely form near/just north of the warm front and move into parts of far southeast MN and southern WI. This activity should remain elevated, posing a risk for large hail and strong gusts, though any cell rooting on the warm front will pose a tornado risk as well, though the better warm sector is expected to remain south of MN/WI. ...Mid-South Vicinity... A concerning scenario appears to be developing across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. ...OH/TN Valley vicinity... Low-level moisture/instability will begin to wane with north and east extent into the nighttime hours. However forecast guidance has consistently shown a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE with little/no inhibition. Forecast guidance generally tends to under-forecast north/east extent of severe potential in strongly forced, intense shear system. As such, the ongoing outlook maintains a broad gradient from Enhanced to Slight risk across this region. Damaging gusts and a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 03/30/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Shaping up to be a busy Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 10 hours ago, nwohweather said: It’s the Midwest so squares with the occasional river road Its not quite as bad as Lake Michigan, but the Mississippi doesn’t have bridges everywhere. I also feel like you need the interstates to keep ahead of cells moving 50mph+. I don’t know if its the same everywhere but its definitely pothole season around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Is this model generally historically accurate? Legit asking I’m not familiar with it. The WRF lines up pretty well with the new D2 dual Mod Risks. 15% hatched in the area of the absurd UH swath the WRF was showing.Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 happy 4 the sub, this is our year friends 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: happy 4 the sub, this is our year friends Great Lakes Derecho coming near you June 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 The 12z HRRR has pushed nearly all of the action east of Cedar Rapids tomorrow. Northern Illinois looks like a fun spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Starting to look like the race westward from the suburbs might just be on tomorrow. Figure I'd hug 39 for easy relocation unless that ends up being too far east. Gonna be a nail biter though, if I'm gonna do it I'd really like to be on a storm from the minute it goes severe but I dunno if I'll be able to get there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Hmmm..... The HRRR has mid 70s and storms forming east of Cedar Rapids. The 3k NAM has low 60s and storms forming near Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 45 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 12z HRRR has pushed nearly all of the action east of Cedar Rapids tomorrow. Northern Illinois looks like a fun spot. Has discrete sups heading towards the metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Hmmm..... The HRRR has mid 70s and storms forming east of Cedar Rapids. The 3k NAM has low 60s and storms forming near Des Moines. Differences between these are too much to ignore tbh. Have to wonder if the HRRR is too juiced, though several other non-NAM CAMs and even the NBM seem to be leaning warmer with larger areas of 60+ dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 52 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Has discrete sups heading towards the metro. Have to be a little concerned that the amount of forcing aloft will create too many storms and hurt tornado chances. A lot rides on that EML plume putting in the right amount of capping for tomorrow. I will say once that QLCS comes together it should be going toll road speeds across the region. Also could see some rather large hail for the region as well. Definitely looks like a wild Midwest day to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 12z HRRR significant tornado parameter. The 12z 3km NAM has this entire field of instability farther west into Missouri and Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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