olafminesaw Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: At 1155 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brunswick, or 9 miles north of Slater, moving northeast at 70 mph. These storms are moving fast. Going to make chasing rather challenging for those who go out. My understanding is that fast storm motion can inhibit tornado formation as the updraft is continually being disrupted. If my memory serves anything over about 50 mph is when this starts coming into play. Just something to watch, but there are certainly exceptions to this rule, as fast moving tornadoes are definitely a thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Full sun was out for awhile here, temp has surged to 69 with a dew of 57. That 69 seems suspect, I have 65 here at work. Ingredients are really coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 90/90 tor probs SEL4 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 94 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Arkansas Southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southern Missouri Northwest Mississippi West Tennessee Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread across the mid Mississippi Valley region this afternoon and early evening. Supercells capable of damaging tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible. Parameters are sufficiently favorable for the risk of strong/violent tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east southeast of El Dorado AR to 5 miles northwest of Saint Louis MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Warm front came through here. Up to 60/56 with full sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Yeah, 60/54 here - feels like we are on the northern fringe here but will be fun to watch things unfold down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Tornado warnings starting to pop up now... here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 It begins Tornado Warning IAC039-053-159-175-311830- /O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0001.230331T1740Z-230331T1830Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Decatur County in south central Iowa... Southeastern Union County in south central Iowa... Eastern Ringgold County in south central Iowa... Southwestern Clarke County in south central Iowa... * Until 130 PM CDT. * At 1240 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 5 miles northwest of Hatfield, or 8 miles south of Mount Ayr, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Mt Ayr Municipal Airport around 1245 PM CDT. Kellerton around 1255 PM CDT. Beaconsfield around 100 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Sun Valley Lake, Grand River, Decatur City and Van Wert. This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 12 and 25. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4100 9393 4081 9365 4057 9411 4057 9436 TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 223DEG 42KT 4059 9420 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN $$ Hagenhoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 PDS tornado watches from Louisiana to Minnesota. Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 And now AR Tornado Warning Tornado Warning ARC019-051-059-097-105-109-311815- /O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0035.230331T1741Z-230331T1815Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1241 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Clark County in southwestern Arkansas... Southwestern Perry County in central Arkansas... Northwestern Pike County in southwestern Arkansas... Garland County in central Arkansas... Southeastern Montgomery County in western Arkansas... West central Hot Spring County in southwestern Arkansas... * Until 115 PM CDT. * At 1240 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Daisy, or 13 miles east of Umpire, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Hot Springs... Glenwood... Mountain Pine... Norman... Daisy... Hot Springs Memorial Field... Meyers... Lake Ouachita State Park... Lofton... Rockwell... Hot Springs National Park... Daisy State Park... Avant... Oaklawn Racetrack... Bonnerdale... Mt Tabor... Sunshine... Lodi... Langley... Royal... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3420 9387 3429 9391 3483 9318 3445 9296 TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 238DEG 52KT 3429 9381 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN $$ 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, cheese007 said: It begins Tornado Warning IAC039-053-159-175-311830- /O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0001.230331T1740Z-230331T1830Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Decatur County in south central Iowa... Southeastern Union County in south central Iowa... Eastern Ringgold County in south central Iowa... Southwestern Clarke County in south central Iowa... * Until 130 PM CDT. * At 1240 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 5 miles northwest of Hatfield, or 8 miles south of Mount Ayr, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Mt Ayr Municipal Airport around 1245 PM CDT. Kellerton around 1255 PM CDT. Beaconsfield around 100 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Sun Valley Lake, Grand River, Decatur City and Van Wert. This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 12 and 25. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4100 9393 4081 9365 4057 9411 4057 9436 TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 223DEG 42KT 4059 9420 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN $$ Hagenhoff Looks like some large hail on that cell as well. Getting some radar scatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 0394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...far northern MO...southern IA Concerning...Tornado Watch 93... Valid 311751Z - 311915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase through 200-230pm CDT. Large to very large hail (2-3 inches diameter) is possible with the more intense supercells. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows explosive supercell development across northern MO into southern IA. Surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 70s with surface dewpoints in the 60-62 deg F range. The latest RAP forecast soundings show very steep surface to 300-mb lapse rates (7.5 deg C/km) with impressive southwesterly speed shear with height. As the supercells mature and the surface low deepens through mid afternoon, some backing of near-surface winds is expected with low-level hodographs enlarging through 2-3pm. As this hodograph change occurs, tornado potential will markedly increase. Very large low-level buoyancy (0-3 km MLCAPE 200-300 J/kg) and the intensifying low-level mesocyclones will combine to support the potential for strong tornadoes with supercells as they rapidly move northeast into south-central IA and approach the I-80 corridor. ..Smith.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 0395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...94... Valid 311753Z - 311930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93, 94 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat may gradually increase over the next couple of hours as storms in northern AR mature and shift northeastward. Strong shear downstream may support the potential for strong long-track tornadoes. Additional storms are possible later in the day. DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster of strong to severe storms exiting northern AR into portions of southeastern MO. Likely at the eastern edge of diurnal destabilization, these storms have been slowly maturing over the last 90 minutes. Already displaying supercell characteristics, these storms are expected to move into a destabilizing and strongly sheared environment across southeastern MO, southern IL and western KY later this afternoon and into the evening. The initial severe threat is likely to be large hail as storms may remain slightly elevated and the environment destabilizes. As remaining MLCINH is eroded, area RAP sounding show the environment becoming potentially favorable for significant tornadoes with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 and STP values of 4-5. The initial storms may be somewhat slow to mature as inhibition is overcome, but multiple rounds of convection appear likely with clearing skies and cumulus streets evident on visible imagery farther west. HRRR and WOFS guidance show multiple supercells with the potential for all hazards through this evening. ..Lyons/Hart.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 We continue to see SBCAPE outperformance relative to HRRR 1hr forecasts, this time in northern Illinois (over 1500 j/kg near Rockford currently per SPC mesoanalysis, 17z HRRR forecast for 18z had ~1100 to 1200 at most). Undoubtedly thanks to the aforementioned less aggressive cloud cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Latest NWS LOT summary graphic, for those intrigued: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Gotta love severe thundersnow. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Was flying in to ORD for a 5pm arrival from Vail, UA/ATC now holding back our departure 3 hours. Not a clean flight path through or around. Bummer, was looking forward to getting some shots of some of these storms from above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 These storms are firing up on DFW, so the wind shear and helicity is very much there to the point that hook echoes are forming that fast west. Look at the cell with the initital hook above Mesquite. Courtesy of KXAS-TV NBC 5 S-Band Radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Already looking meaty and the event is only just beginning. Discrete signatures up and down the breadth of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 About to hit the road in Naperville. Late to the game. Somebody who knows what they're doing, tell me where to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: About to hit the road in Naperville. Late to the game. Somebody who knows what they're doing, tell me where to go. Don't chase if you don't know where to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 About to hit the road in Naperville. Late to the game. Somebody who knows what they're doing, tell me where to go. I’m about 30 minutes ahead of you.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, MidwestChaser said: Don't chase if you don't know where to go. I know where to go, I just want @Chicago Storm to spoon feed it to me so I feel more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I’m about 30 minutes ahead of you. . You said Galesburg right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: About to hit the road in Naperville. Late to the game. Somebody who knows what they're doing, tell me where to go. Latest NWS Chicago update says you might be able to even sit tight in Naperville now that round 1 is more likely to be surface based FYI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, Chicago916 said: Latest NWS Chicago update says you might be able to even sit tight in Naperville now that round 1 is more likely to be surface based FYI I've been entertaining the idea of just heading farther SW so that I can ride those storms back or bailing head west to catch the second wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, Malacka11 said: I've been entertaining the idea of just heading farther SW so that I can ride those storms back or bailing head west to catch the second wave With how fast these storms are, that's a good idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 LOT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Initial concerns continue to highlight the growing cluster of convection now crossing from northeast Missouri into west-central Illinois as of 1pm/18Z. The primary question is now focused on how far northeast surface-based convection can reach to and then extend into the forecast area. Latest CAM/WoFs guidance has been rather consistent with the longevity of more robust convection lasting through our area for areas south of a line from La Salle County through the southern Chicago metro. Rapid destabilization is ongoing through the warm sector given an unusual and unexpected amount of clearing across much of Illinois with this type of dynamic system (nearly 70F all the way into the Chicago metro). A subtle surface moisture discontinuity extending ESE from west central Illinois has become a bit diffuse early this afternoon, but is gradually lifting northeast and closing in on our far southwest CWA. Near term guidance supports a rapid erosion of MLCIN into the aforementioned area of our CWA concurrent with convection arriving from the southwest (~3-5pm). Therefore, the likelihood of true surface-based convection entering our CWA has increased early this afternoon. Severe weather parameters favor all severe hazards, including an inherent risk for strong tornadoes with any fully surface-based supercells. The greatest risk initially favors into the southwest CWA, but if the storms can keep pace with the northeast moisture transport, we need to keep a very close eye into east-central IL through the southern Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I've been entertaining the idea of just heading farther SW so that I can ride those storms back or bailing head west to catch the second wave Just go to plainfield 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Rotation tightening on the cell S of Des Moines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 You said Galesburg right?For now.Could readjust as I get closer.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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