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March 31st Severe Threat


pen_artist
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Big question on my mind, does the SPC push the Moderate Risk eastwards given what appears to be better clearing than model guidance expected plus these remarkable short-term models showing at least a couple rotating storms moving thru NE IL.

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3 minutes ago, WXMan42711 said:

 

april 14, 2012 out on the high plains. april 13's day 2 featured two separate high risks and then april 14 started out with two before they eventually became one.

We will see if today's high risk areas merge (or should have been merged in retrospect). If the separate high risk areas stay separate for the duration, that will be a first at least (I think?). :guitar:

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1 minute ago, Kaner88 said:

Big question on my mind, does the SPC push the Moderate Risk eastwards given what appears to be better clearing than model guidance expected plus these remarkable short-term models showing at least a couple rotating storms moving thru NE IL.

This is what I'm trying to figure out. Obviously can't make the high risk anymore but the HRRR is sticking to its guns with a couple of decent cells farther east. 

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For what it may be worth, appears the latest HRRR is underdoing instability in northern Missouri considerably: latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a pocket of 3000+ j/kg SBCAPE across the area, whereas the HRRR (15z run, showing 16z forecast CAPE) only has it at about 2500 j/kg. Feels like a bit of an abyss.

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Need some opinions here. I’m currently planning to catch a train out of Harvard at 5:20pm, set to arrive in Jefferson Park at 6:48pm. HRRR seems to be showing a lull in severity between 5 & 7pm, but severe weather can pop up whenever it wants.

I can’t read the advanced stuff for rain events as well as I know others here can. Should I stick to that train or try for a later one/get the first train out tomorrow morning?

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Damn

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 93  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1145 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA  
  WESTERN ILLINOIS  
  NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI  
  SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL  
  800 PM CDT.  
   
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
  WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3  
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  
SUMMARY...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.   
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS  
ACTIVITY.  PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

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9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Damn

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 93  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1145 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA  
  WESTERN ILLINOIS  
  NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI  
  SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL  
  800 PM CDT.  
   
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
  WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3  
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  
SUMMARY...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.   
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS  
ACTIVITY.  PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

95/90 probs. one of those kinds of days i suppose

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