andyhb Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 06z HRRR has a trio of long tracked supercells across the northern third of IL, endangering several large population centers including Chicagoland from 3-6 pm. Very dangerous solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 39 minutes ago, andyhb said: 06z HRRR has a trio of long tracked supercells across the northern third of IL, endangering several large population centers including Chicagoland from 3-6 pm. Very dangerous solution. It's consistently taking a robust helicity track right through Peoria where I live. Storm mode definitely more discrete to semi discrete versus more clustered towards Iowa. Is this forming on a lead wave or just on the lead edge of the exit region of the jet? Seems like this first wave may be the more robust tornado threat with a potential 2nd round associated more with cf which looks more qlcs variety albeit still showed supercell characteristics and some broken quality to line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 hours ago, andyhb said: 06z HRRR has a trio of long tracked supercells across the northern third of IL, endangering several large population centers including Chicagoland from 3-6 pm. Very dangerous solution. lock it in 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 I’ve been watching this discussion. While I’m further East in Indiana, I’ll be in Indy with a couple of thousand students for a concert band and orchestra festival performing this weekend. Hopefully things settle down come later in the day. Also, the largest show for the trucking industry is happening in Louisville. There are hundreds of show semis worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each sitting outside. Yikes. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 09z RRFS-A is insane, don’t really have the words to describe that scenario. About as high end as you can get. Even tries to get some supercells going out east from northern VA up into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 10z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 cool cool 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 30 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: Also, the largest show for the trucking industry is happening in Louisville. There are hundreds of show semis worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each sitting outside. Yikes. Oh no. How will excess capitalism ever recover? Good luck, y’all. Will miss being in Chicago for this. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 09z RRFS-A and 10z HRRR helicity swaths 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Looks like a half day of work for me then heading home for the show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: It's consistently taking a robust helicity track right through Peoria where I live. Storm mode definitely more discrete to semi discrete versus more clustered towards Iowa. Is this forming on a lead wave or just on the lead edge of the exit region of the jet? Seems like this first wave may be the more robust tornado threat with a potential 2nd round associated more with cf which looks more qlcs variety albeit still showed supercell characteristics and some broken quality to line. Shades of big Dixie Alley outbreaks with 2 waves with the lead wave having winds backed more ahead of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Major expansion of the moderate risk on the new outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Convection firing in SE Kansas with the first wave new SPC ..MIDWEST AND THE MID-MS TO OH VALLEYS A 992-MB CYCLONE OVER EASTERN NE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MATURES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BEFORE OCCLUDING THIS EVENING. A PLUME OF SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY SUPPORTED BY MID 50S TO 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN THE OZARKS VICINITY BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN GRADIENT OF THE DEEPER BUOYANCY PLUME AS A LOBE OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT SPREADS NORTHEAST DOWNSTREAM OF THE VIGOROUS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THIS LEAD ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT, HOW THE OTHER HAZARDS EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO IL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY, ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TO THE EAST. THE PRIMARY SEVERE EVOLUTION REMAINS LIKELY TO EVOLVE BEGINNING AROUND 19Z TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL IA AND BROADENING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MO. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT A BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. AS ACTIVITY RAPIDLY SPREADS INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT IN EASTERN IA AND THE MS VALLEY, SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED. THERE SHOULD BE AN ADEQUATE GAP BETWEEN THE LEAD AND PRIMARY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SUPERCELLS THROUGH AT LEAST EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO MOST OF IL INTO EARLY EVENING. WITHIN A 3-6 STP ENVIRONMENT AND THE CORE OF THE 500-700 MB JETS UPSTREAM THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE, LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 . Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 They connected the MOD risk areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Major expansion of the moderate risk on the new outlook About doubled, both in terms of population and area. Also the Enhanced pushed well East all the way to Ohio. These threats that effect large areas with the mod/enh tend to be a bigger deal than a small high risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 That's a freakin' huge area of 10-15% hatched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 I'm watching this from afar in NH. I can not remember the last "high" risk. 2 questions. The next convective outlook would come out in 6 hours, right? My second questions is do they ever change convective outlooks with any special outlooks? I know the discussions come out more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: I'm watching this from afar in NH. I can not remember the last "high" risk. 2 questions. The next convective outlook would come out in 6 hours, right? My second questions is do they ever change convective outlooks with any special outlooks? I know the discussions come out more often. Next SPC OTLK is at 1630z... or 1230pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 I'm watching this from afar in NH. I can not remember the last "high" risk. 2 questions. The next convective outlook would come out in 6 hours, right? My second questions is do they ever change convective outlooks with any special outlooks? I know the discussions come out more often. They have issued special outlooks before for upgrades or corrections.Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Pretty wild depiction. HRRR can sometimes be very inconsistent with moisture returns, but in this particular case it has a large swath of 65 degree dew points up to northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: About doubled, both in terms of population and area. Also the Enhanced pushed well East all the way to Ohio. These threats that effect large areas with the mod/enh tend to be a bigger deal than a small high risk. This is a wicked outlook, the geographical extent of both mod and enh are so large that the chances of this not being a memorable day are rapidly diminishing. Even if there is a failure mode somewhere you can still have all hell break loose in another spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: lock it in Absolutely terrifying map. Major nados through multiple major IL metros. Definitely starting to look like all systems go for a major outbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 With overnight/morning trends I"m strongly leaning towards retargeting to somewhere between I-80 and I-74 in IL instead of going to Iowa; looking like initiation will be further west and earlier in the latter state, increasing the likelihood that the discrete mode will have ended by the time I can intercept after leaving work at noon. CAM solutions suggest IL should have an hour or two longer before CI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Hot damn even slight and marginal risks extend even farther east edit: slight risk all the way into the DTW area I’m very impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 The 00z HREF spits out a “super outbreak”. Curious to see the next updated HREF run. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 95% issuance of tornado watch in N 3/4 of Missouri and far W Central IL per SPC MD #388 for this morning cluster just exiting Kansas. Will be interesting to see how this plays out, will this wave be the main show for N IL? Are the dynamics of this system strong enough to recover quickly for the primary threat? Time will tell! Also to note, am already seeing peeks of sun here in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Visible showing that a huge chunk of MO, IL, and IN are going to get at the very least several hours of sunshine today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 esoscale Discussion 0388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0836 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...Far eastern KS into MO...southern IA...western IL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 311336Z - 311500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will increase substantially through the morning. Tornado Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently intensified over eastern KS, in association with a subtle lead shortwave trough ejecting in advance of a larger/more intense trough moving toward the central Plains. A strong low-level jet will support rapid airmass modification downstream of the ongoing convection into MO and southern IA, and surface-based convection will likely develop later this morning as the lead shortwave and ongoing convection move quickly east-northeastward. Regional 12Z soundings depict very favorable midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The ongoing elevated convection will pose a risk of hail, with all hazards becoming possible later this morning, as the potential for surface-based supercells increases. If any surface-based supercell can become established this morning, favorable low-level shear could support some strong tornado threat with this lead convection into the afternoon, along with a risk of very large hail. While some uncertainty remains regarding the convective evolution this morning, Tornado Watch issuance will likely be needed for at least parts of the MCD area by 15Z. ..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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