SnoSki14 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 On 7/16/2023 at 1:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Paul loves using analogs from the civil war era. The forcing is heavily skewed west compared to strong Nino east based years thanks to Pacific warm pool If this Nino is strong and tilted east it still won't play out like 97-98 or other similar years. Bluewave broke that down nicely in the Nino discussion thread. So I don't think the typical caveats where a strong east based Nino means winter is dead will apply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19, 2023 Author Share Posted July 19, 2023 33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The forcing is heavily skewed west compared to strong Nino east based years thanks to Pacific warm pool If this Nino is strong and tilted east it still won't play out like 97-98 or other similar years. Bluewave broke that down nicely in the Nino discussion thread. So I don't think the typical caveats where a strong east based Nino means winter is dead will apply. I agree....been trying to explain that to snowman, who apparently doesn't think that the location of the tropical convection is important due to a warmer climate. One of my largest mistakes in the past was focusing only on the ENSO region, but I now realize that the entire equatorial Pacific is crucial unless the significant anomalies are relegated to just the ENSO region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree....been trying to explain that to snowman, who apparently doesn't think that the location of the tropical convection is important due to a warmer climate. One of my largest mistakes in the past was focusing only on the ENSO region, but I now realize that the entire equatorial Pacific is crucial unless the significant anomalies are relegated to just the ENSO region. Location of tropical convection is important no matter what. Not sure how that is debatable. It's the reason why we had the winters of 13-14 and 14-15 despite some different ENSO regimes. It wasn't because the waters surrounding a pod of Orca's were 45F instead of 41F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Speaking of tropical forcing, I recently (maybe a month or so ago) did some breakdowns of tropical forcing during EL Nino winter's. I focused on Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies as that was the only product that had reanalysis data back to 1900. What I did was look at OLR Anomalies for each EL Nino event to see the different variations. I also used this diagram as guidance: During ENSO neutral conditions and La Nina's the tropical forcing is typically located across the far western Pacific and during EL Nino's this is typically displaced farther east, either towards the central Pacific or into the eastern Pacific. When I was making my OLR composites, I noticed there was a definite variation between each event where the tropical forcing was mostly located. Based on the composites and the above diagram, I split the forcing's into two categories 1. Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Winter's (meaning the tropical forcing as evident by the OLR anomalies) was located within the western Pacific (more typical of an ENSO neutral) 2. EL Nino Forcing EL Nino Winter's (meaning the tropical forcing as evident by the OLR anomalies) was displaced farther east across the Pacific (more typical of an EL Nino episode). What I found interesting was there was actually slightly more EL Nino events with tropical forcing more prevalent across the western Pacific than there were EL Nino events were the tropical forcing was displaced east. Now obviously, the tropical forcing's more west were mostly weak and moderate events and the tropical forcing's displaced east were stronger events. Here is a breakdown of the years Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Winter's: EL Nino Forcing EL Nino Winter's Now...I JUST realized I am an idiot. I am only going ahead with this post because I took the time to make it up and there is something still noteworthy. Anyways my breakdowns here are TOTAL GARBAGE. I was focusing on the WRONG area for the Neutral/LA Nina Forcing. That focus should be centered near 120°E I was focusing more on 150°E. Overlooking this stupidity, like Scott said the placement and location of tropical forcing is extremely important. It would be difficult to interpret with my incorrect composites here but there is a clear signal that the more east the tropical forcing is, the more likely the east is to have an above-average temperature winter and the more west the tropical forcing is, the more likely the east is to have a below-average temperature winter. What is also very clear I think is the configuration of anomalies associated with the Siberian High and Aleutian Low is also extremely, extremely critical, especially during winters where the Aleutian Low is of a stronger signal. Well going to go back and re-do these composites now that I realized the dumb mistake. I guess if any good came at making this post is I was able to catch this error. I have a print out of the first graphic showing the forcing's for each episode and I was looking at my ENSO OLR composites and something like jumped at me. So I quickly made some OR composites for La Nina episodes and realized I was assessing the wrong area of the equatorial Pacific Anyways I am definitely not throwing out the idea of a solid winter just because of "strength" concern. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Speaking of tropical forcing, I recently (maybe a month or so ago) did some breakdowns of tropical forcing during EL Nino winter's. I focused on Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies as that was the only product that had reanalysis data back to 1900. What I did was look at OLR Anomalies for each EL Nino event to see the different variations. I also used this diagram as guidance: During ENSO neutral conditions and La Nina's the tropical forcing is typically located across the far western Pacific and during EL Nino's this is typically displaced farther east, either towards the central Pacific or into the eastern Pacific. When I was making my OLR composites, I noticed there was a definite variation between each event where the tropical forcing was mostly located. Based on the composites and the above diagram, I split the forcing's into two categories 1. Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Winter's (meaning the tropical forcing as evident by the OLR anomalies) was located within the western Pacific (more typical of an ENSO neutral) 2. EL Nino Forcing EL Nino Winter's (meaning the tropical forcing as evident by the OLR anomalies) was displaced farther east across the Pacific (more typical of an EL Nino episode). What I found interesting was there was actually slightly more EL Nino events with tropical forcing more prevalent across the western Pacific than there were EL Nino events were the tropical forcing was displaced east. Now obviously, the tropical forcing's more west were mostly weak and moderate events and the tropical forcing's displaced east were stronger events. Here is a breakdown of the years Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Winter's: EL Nino Forcing EL Nino Winter's Now...I JUST realized I am an idiot. I am only going ahead with this post because I took the time to make it up and there is something still noteworthy. Anyways my breakdowns here are TOTAL GARBAGE. I was focusing on the WRONG area for the Neutral/LA Nina Forcing. That focus should be centered near 120°E I was focusing more on 150°E. Overlooking this stupidity, like Scott said the placement and location of tropical forcing is extremely important. It would be difficult to interpret with my incorrect composites here but there is a clear signal that the more east the tropical forcing is, the more likely the east is to have an above-average temperature winter and the more west the tropical forcing is, the more likely the east is to have a below-average temperature winter. What is also very clear I think is the configuration of anomalies associated with the Siberian High and Aleutian Low is also extremely, extremely critical, especially during winters where the Aleutian Low is of a stronger signal. Well going to go back and re-do these composites now that I realized the dumb mistake. I guess if any good came at making this post is I was able to catch this error. I have a print out of the first graphic showing the forcing's for each episode and I was looking at my ENSO OLR composites and something like jumped at me. So I quickly made some OR composites for La Nina episodes and realized I was assessing the wrong area of the equatorial Pacific Anyways I am definitely not throwing out the idea of a solid winter just because of "strength" concern. Imagine if Tolstoy had done that at the end of War and Peace? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 20, 2023 Author Share Posted July 20, 2023 17 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Speaking of tropical forcing, I recently (maybe a month or so ago) did some breakdowns of tropical forcing during EL Nino winter's. I focused on Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies as that was the only product that had reanalysis data back to 1900. What I did was look at OLR Anomalies for each EL Nino event to see the different variations. I also used this diagram as guidance: During ENSO neutral conditions and La Nina's the tropical forcing is typically located across the far western Pacific and during EL Nino's this is typically displaced farther east, either towards the central Pacific or into the eastern Pacific. When I was making my OLR composites, I noticed there was a definite variation between each event where the tropical forcing was mostly located. Based on the composites and the above diagram, I split the forcing's into two categories 1. Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Winter's (meaning the tropical forcing as evident by the OLR anomalies) was located within the western Pacific (more typical of an ENSO neutral) 2. EL Nino Forcing EL Nino Winter's (meaning the tropical forcing as evident by the OLR anomalies) was displaced farther east across the Pacific (more typical of an EL Nino episode). What I found interesting was there was actually slightly more EL Nino events with tropical forcing more prevalent across the western Pacific than there were EL Nino events were the tropical forcing was displaced east. Now obviously, the tropical forcing's more west were mostly weak and moderate events and the tropical forcing's displaced east were stronger events. Here is a breakdown of the years Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Winter's: EL Nino Forcing EL Nino Winter's Now...I JUST realized I am an idiot. I am only going ahead with this post because I took the time to make it up and there is something still noteworthy. Anyways my breakdowns here are TOTAL GARBAGE. I was focusing on the WRONG area for the Neutral/LA Nina Forcing. That focus should be centered near 120°E I was focusing more on 150°E. Overlooking this stupidity, like Scott said the placement and location of tropical forcing is extremely important. It would be difficult to interpret with my incorrect composites here but there is a clear signal that the more east the tropical forcing is, the more likely the east is to have an above-average temperature winter and the more west the tropical forcing is, the more likely the east is to have a below-average temperature winter. What is also very clear I think is the configuration of anomalies associated with the Siberian High and Aleutian Low is also extremely, extremely critical, especially during winters where the Aleutian Low is of a stronger signal. Well going to go back and re-do these composites now that I realized the dumb mistake. I guess if any good came at making this post is I was able to catch this error. I have a print out of the first graphic showing the forcing's for each episode and I was looking at my ENSO OLR composites and something like jumped at me. So I quickly made some OR composites for La Nina episodes and realized I was assessing the wrong area of the equatorial Pacific Anyways I am definitely not throwing out the idea of a solid winter just because of "strength" concern. During the stronger, canonical events, the Aleutian low is very prominent and tucked in tight to the coast of the PNW, so that there is a stronger PAC jet....during the weaker events that are focused more to the west, that low is more meager and further off of the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 20, 2023 Author Share Posted July 20, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think el nino is telling us very much this season. Winter 2023-2024 Unlikely to be Decided by ENSO | Eastern Mass Weather 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Great write up Ray. This winter could be an excellent learning opportunity as it evolves with respect to enso. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 I don't hate the CFS...and CANSIPS looks pretty dam tasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don't hate the CFS...and CANSIPS looks pretty dam tasty. 09-10 redux lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 interesting thing is that the CanSIPS did increase the strength of the Nino considerably to just barely super, but it doesn't matter since the forcing is so west based. we basically get Modoki forcing with a basin-wide Nino. kinda wild 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: interesting thing is that the CanSIPS did increase the strength of the Nino considerably to just barely super, but it doesn't matter since the forcing is so west based. we basically get Modoki forcing with a basin-wide Nino. kinda wild Yeah definitely interesting. I hope it holds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 I suggest the peppeRONI studies are as important to this discussion as it is to culinary science... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: 09-10 redux lmao SNE doesn’t want a 09-10 redux that’s for sure, unless we can get just a tad less blocking this go around…? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: SNE doesn’t want a 09-10 redux that’s for sure, unless we can get just a tad less blocking this go around…? Strongly agree, I would rather not see DC, Philly, and NYC get buried while we get skunked. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 29 minutes ago, George001 said: Strongly agree, I would rather not see DC, Philly, and NYC get buried while we get skunked. I would take my chances with a 09-10 redux anytime! Knowing how very slight shifts in a pattern like that could easily produce a big SNE winter, I'd roll the dice! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, FXWX said: I would take my chances with a 09-10 redux anytime! Knowing how very slight shifts in a pattern like that could easily produce a big SNE winter, I'd roll the dice! Violently agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 1 hour ago, FXWX said: I would take my chances with a 09-10 redux anytime! Knowing how very slight shifts in a pattern like that could easily produce a big SNE winter, I'd roll the dice! 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Violently agree I knew you guys would say this…and obviously that is true, but lately(especially this past winter)we’ve had zero things go our way. I know, I know, the law of averages eventually swing the other way. But just a tad less blocking than 09-10 is a safer bet imo…cuz that winter nothing could get up here whatsoever. I don’t even want to gamble with something that has that level of blocking again…if I had a choice lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 9 hours ago, FXWX said: I would take my chances with a 09-10 redux anytime! Knowing how very slight shifts in a pattern like that could easily produce a big SNE winter, I'd roll the dice! 9 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Violently agree Extreme violence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 8 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I knew you guys would say this…and obviously that is true, but lately(especially this past winter)we’ve had zero things go our way. I know, I know, the law of averages eventually swing the other way. But just a tad less blocking than 09-10 is a safer bet imo…cuz that winter nothing could get up here whatsoever. I don’t even want to gamble with something that has that level of blocking again…if I had a choice lol. Yea...ideally, we would want a bit less blocking, but I would still take my chances with that level of blocking again....it always comes down to luck in the end, regardless of the pattern...just that the deck is more stacked in your favor in certain set ups. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: interesting thing is that the CanSIPS did increase the strength of the Nino considerably to just barely super, but it doesn't matter since the forcing is so west based. we basically get Modoki forcing with a basin-wide Nino. kinda wild Its true that its all about the forcing, but 2015 showed us that you still don't want it too strong...saving grace is that I don't think that this event will be as a prominent a driver as that event was given the ambient hemispheric environment, regardless of the ONI, which is what the MEI and RONI illustrate. An apt analogy is to think of the ONI in terms of barometric pressure.....people focus too much on the minimum central pressure with respect to both the tropics and mid latitude cyclones, but what really matters is the pressure gradient...ie the interaction with the ambient environment, which is what truly dictates the weather. ONI is analogous to minimum central pressure within this context....but we need to look around the globe and well beyond the tropics in order to truly ascertain how the weather will play out because that hemispheric gradient is what dictates everything. Period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 10 hours ago, FXWX said: I would take my chances with a 09-10 redux anytime! Knowing how very slight shifts in a pattern like that could easily produce a big SNE winter, I'd roll the dice! Yes, basically the LIE on south got buried. A miniscule shift....and bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 All this optimism on an unusually brisk August morning is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 Weather is the product of gradients, not static measurements...remember that. We only care about the anomalous numbers due to their correlation with the stronger gradients and the fact that they look pretty in our dorky record books, but in and of themselves, they are pretty useless.....powerful shortwaves with no baroclinicity, so to speak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: All this optimism on an unusually brisk August morning is awesome! Think about it...what happens when you get a 498mb closed ULL pass under LI in the absence of any thermal gradient or baroclinicity? Well, once everyone finishes toweling themselves off, they realize that the forecast is for snow showers, which disappoints everyone, but Steve and Kevin. Right now, this el nino looks like a huge closed low without much baroclinicity to me...snowman23 is the one that will need to come to grip with reality once he towels himself off- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 Since gradients exists with every atmospheric phenomenon, including air pressure and SSTs, you can think of the ENSO ONI like the low pressure off of the east coast and the SSTS over the west PAC like the high pressure over the mid west...same type of system. Well, given that this is an el nino, the high ONI is analogous to a deep area of low pressure off of the east coast. But we would want to see lower SSTS over the west PAC to have a really strong SYSTEM, just like we would a strong high pressure over the mid west. But this year, we have a weak high (warm W PAC SSTS), so the gradient isn't there. Its like having the impressive 961mb low (ONI) with a paltry 1000mb high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 42 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: All this optimism on an unusually brisk August morning is awesome! I am pretty confident that the tropics aren't going to torpedo this winter. If we get porked again, then extra tropical influences will be the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Think about it...what happens when you get a 498mb closed ULL pass under LI in the absence of any thermal gradient or baroclinicity? Well, once everyone finishes toweling themselves off, they realize that the forecast is for snow showers, which disappoints everyone, but Steve and Kevin. Right now, this el nino looks like a huge closed low without much baroclinicity to me...snowman23 is the one that will need to come to grip with reality once he towels himself off- Can't remember the last time a 498 passing under LI didn't produce. That's a 6 plus guarantee. Link me up with an example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Can't remember the last time a 498 passing under LI didn't produce. That's a 6 plus guarantee. Link me up with an example Hyperbole, but you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hyperbole, but you know what I mean. Oh yes we do. Will be interesting to see if Nino temps keep leveling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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