2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, weathafella said:

It sucks for us September through November with a much better look December through February.   It would argue for a late blooming winter with lower than normal snow given lag.   December through February would probably suck.  And that’s if it’s right.   I’m not making any predictions-yet.  But if it looks like the current picture in September imho we’re screwed.

Yea, IDK Jerry....to be blunt, I don't agree with much of any of what you have had to say over the past month or two. Doesn't mean you are wrong, but I think you are wrong about the interpretation of the JMA guidance, at the very least.

[weathafella]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, IDK Jerry....to be blunt, I don't agree with much of any of what you have had to say over the past month or two. Doesn't mean you are wrong, but I think you are wrong about the interpretation of the JMA guidance, at the very least.

Ray, the SSTA maps are exactly what I said.    The post from me that you quoted stated much better look December to February but my assertion is that’s too late although it could allow for a late blooming winter but not enough time to make up snowfall deficit.

September through November looks similar to now:

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ray, the SSTA maps are exactly what I said.    The post from me that you quoted stated much better look December to February but my assertion is that’s too late although it could allow for a late blooming winter but not enough time to make up snowfall deficit.

September through November looks similar to now:

 

 

I posted the 2m temp and precip maps...near normal to a hair above temps and near normal to hair above precip.

You stated "December through February would probably suck".

I don't agree with your interpretation. 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I posted the 2m temp map...near normal to a hair above.

You stated "December through February would probably suck".

I don't agree with your interpretation. 

Fair enough.  My interpretation is entirely based on the premise of a robust east based nino-no other analysis and admittedly not considering mitigating factors.  20 years ago I would deep dive this stuff but I no longer have the patience.   With that said, I want those ssta anomalies to shuffle or I will be rather pessimistic regarding winter here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't see why anyone should care what the el nino distribution looks like during the fall....sure, there is a lag, but I feel like some people exaggerate that. La nina looked great last November....tilted east, then it flipped into December and we had a very mild, classic modoki la nina season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Fair enough.  My interpretation is entirely based on the premise of a robust east based nino-no other analysis and admittedly not considering mitigating factors.  20 years ago I would deep dive this stuff but I no longer have the patience.   With that said, I want those ssta anomalies to shuffle or I will be rather pessimistic regarding winter here.

You are also neglecting to consider the surrounding globe and seem to focused on el nino in a vacuum. The fact that the global waters are so anomalously warm means that the el nino will not be as strong as ostensibly suggested by the ONI and forcing will likely be displaced westward due to the pull of the w pac. Guidance reflects this in the vertical velocity potential and OLR progs. It goes both ways...this is why the meager 2018-2019 el nino acted more like a la nina and why last season's la nina was more impactful around the globe than ONI would imply.

You can't be a Bill Belicheck in seasonal forecasting....you need to evolve and adapt to the changing times.

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are also neglecting to consider the surrounding globe and seem to focused on el nino in a vacuum. The fact that the global waters are so anomalously warm means that the el nino will not be as strong as ostensibly suggested by the ONI and forcing will likely be displaced westward due to the pull of the w pac. Guidance reflects this in the vertical velocity potential and OLR progs. It goes both ways...this is why the meager 2018-2019 el nino acted more like a la nina and why last season's la nina was more impactful around the globe than ONI would imply.

You can't be a Bill Belicheck in seasonal forecasting....you need to evolve and adapt to the changing times.

Good thoughts.  I may be reacting emotionally to the distribution and it’s definitely a quick take without any of the deeper questions you raise.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Good thoughts.  I may be reacting emotionally to the distribution and it’s definitely a quick take without any of the deeper questions you raise.  

A pessimistic initial reaction I think is normal, especially after how awful last year was.

Granted it’s early, hopefully we see some positive signs emerge as we transition later into summer and early fall 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

53 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

A pessimistic initial reaction I think is normal, especially after how awful last year was.

Granted it’s early, hopefully we see some positive signs emerge as we transition later into summer and early fall 

I’d be pessimistic if I lived in SE mass annually 

I lived there from 8-17

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

A pessimistic initial reaction I think is normal, especially after how awful last year was.

Granted it’s early, hopefully we see some positive signs emerge as we transition later into summer and early fall 

Yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Good thoughts.  I may be reacting emotionally to the distribution and it’s definitely a quick take without any of the deeper questions you raise.  

This is why I think my outlooks blew chunks in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are also neglecting to consider the surrounding globe and seem to focused on el nino in a vacuum. The fact that the global waters are so anomalously warm means that the el nino will not be as strong as ostensibly suggested by the ONI and forcing will likely be displaced westward due to the pull of the w pac. Guidance reflects this in the vertical velocity potential and OLR progs. It goes both ways...this is why the meager 2018-2019 el nino acted more like a la nina and why last season's la nina was more impactful around the globe than ONI would imply.

You can't be a Bill Belicheck in seasonal forecasting....you need to evolve and adapt to the changing times.

I think this is a good point. Traditional ENSO analogs and our prior understanding of the behavior need to evolve. So while the underlying physics and behavior are there...I do think Nina's and Nino's nowadays are not exactly behaving as many think given the SST temp distribution. I've heard energy mets say this as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

Lol. I’ve been saying it for about 15 years… But yeah I’m sure others have too. 
 

[George001]

12 hours ago, weathafella said:

Ray, the SSTA maps are exactly what I said.    The post from me that you quoted stated much better look December to February but my assertion is that’s too late although it could allow for a late blooming winter but not enough time to make up snowfall deficit.

September through November looks similar to now:

 

 

All that red on the map makes me want to vomit

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol. I’ve been saying it for about 15 years… But yeah I’m sure others have too. 
 

You were the first on this that I can recall.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You were the first on this that I can recall.

Doesn't matter to me who is/was or what, it only matters going forward -

I just want folks to stop engineering these seasonal forecasts based on ENSO "in a vacuum" as you so eloquently stated. 

But it doesn't even have to be in a vacuum, per se.  I mean you know this ...but it's all weighted - in other words, how much of, can be reliant from ENSO versus - that's where the real art is going to be drawn. 

The new norm in seasonal forecast approach cannot be so reliant.  etc etc

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Doesn't matter to me who is/was or what, it only matters going forward -

I just want folks to stop engineering these seasonal forecasts based on ENSO "in a vacuum" as you so eloquently stated. 

But it doesn't even have to be in a vacuum, per se.  I mean you know this ...but it's all weighted - in other words, how much of, can be reliant from ENSO versus - that's where the real art is going to be drawn. 

The new norm in seasonal forecast approach cannot be so reliant.  etc etc

I don't think the old norm was good either....there's a reason people who were right 55-60% of the time in seasonal forecasting were basically considered elite (and really still are). We've seen two very similar ENSO events in the past behave very differently.

 

Weak east-based El Nino in '76-'77? How about the coldest winter over the northeast since 1917-18. Ok, lets a take a more favorable weakish or low-end moderate modoki Nino in '94-'95....I don't have to tell you how shitty that winter was, lol. I remember the hype around that one too.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think the old norm was good either....there's a reason people who were right 55-60% of the time in seasonal forecasting were basically considered elite (and really still are). We've seen two very similar ENSO events in the past behave very differently.

 

Weak east-based El Nino in '76-'77? How about the coldest winter over the northeast since 1917-18. Ok, lets a take a more favorable weakish or low-end moderate modoki Nino in '94-'95....I don't have to tell you how shitty that winter was, lol. I remember the hype around that one too.

sorry, that first sentence made me laugh - it's like 'yeeeah, all that, and, it sucked anyway'

I know that's not what you went on to describe in that. 

You know, Will, even before the ENSO questioning became so, I can remember arguing in the early days of Eastern ..some Jesus 18 years ago ??  are you f'n kidding me.  I remember arguing that the polarward indices were as important for the NP-GL-NE regions of the continent.  Some seasonal outlook of yesteryear, NCEP finally said, "it should be noted that the northern plains, great lakes and new england regions are prone to intraseasonal time scale variations of the polar field indices which cannot be determined at seasonal time leads," it was an hallelujah moment ...

I don't really admittedly get into seasonal outlook. I suck at it. Because employing the above facets, one can be completely sound in their rational, and then something WILL happen seemingly by creepy design LOL. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think the old norm was good either....there's a reason people who were right 55-60% of the time in seasonal forecasting were basically considered elite (and really still are). We've seen two very similar ENSO events in the past behave very differently.

 

Weak east-based El Nino in '76-'77? How about the coldest winter over the northeast since 1917-18. Ok, lets a take a more favorable weakish or low-end moderate modoki Nino in '94-'95....I don't have to tell you how shitty that winter was, lol. I remember the hype around that one too.

One thing I have mentioned is that there is greater variability amongst both weaker and basin-wide events....its all about the location of the forcing, which is less impressive in modest events and thus we are often reliant on extra tropical influences to decide the season's fate.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One thing I have mentioned is that there is greater variability amongst both weaker and basin-wide events....its all about the location of the forcing, which is less impressive in modest events and thus we are often reliant on extra tropical influences to decide the season's fate.

Yes agreed...and that is going to be true of any variable as well. Like for example, usually we aren't overly concerned about a -PNA in New England....EXCEPT when it's going nuclear that it's digging for oil in Cabo San Lucas, then we can start worrying which is what happened to us in Dec 2021 and even parts of last winter.

 

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

sorry, that first sentence made me laugh - it's like 'yeeeah, all that, and, it sucked anyway'

I know that's not what you went on to describe in that. 

You know, Will, even before the ENSO questioning became so, I can remember arguing in the early days of Eastern ..some Jesus 18 years ago ??  are you f'n kidding me.  I remember arguing that the polarward indices were as important for the NP-GL-NE regions of the continent.  Some seasonal outlook of yesteryear, NCEP finally said, "it should be noted that the northern plains, great lakes and new england regions are prone to intraseasonal time scale variations of the polar field indices which cannot be determined at seasonal time leads," it was an hallelujah moment ...

I don't really admittedly get into seasonal outlook. I suck at it. Because employing the above facets, one can be completely sound in their rational, and then something WILL happen seemingly by creepy design LOL. 

 

Yeah this is an incessant problem with our geography when it comes to winter forecasting (hell, throw summer heat domes in as well where they "shunt" south at least excuse imaginable).....we don't have very strong correlations with any single index like, say, the northern plains, PAC NW, or SE does. We have a conveniently non-dominant blend of indices that seem to affect us and we have to figure out which one is going to be the most impactful at any given lead time....all while using tools that can't really predict these indices very well more than 10 days out.

And the coup de grâce is sometimes we identify the correct pattern at good lead time and STILL fail to get the sensible wx to materialize that we'd expect in such a pattern (take the big NAO block from last December as an example)....we first narrowly missed a Dec '92 redux on 12/16, and then a nuance with the PV lobe dropping into western Canada pulled the rug on our East Coast KU threat and turned it into a Buffalo blizzard on 12/23-24. Hey, at least we froze our asses off with the cold front for a couple days....yay.

 

I will say this though....learning to forecast in New England is great. It makes many other areas a cakewalk by comparison.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes agreed...and that is going to be true of any variable as well. Like for example, usually we aren't overly concerned about a -PNA in New England....EXCEPT when it's going nuclear that it's digging for oil in Cabo San Lucas, then we can start worrying which is what happened to us in Dec 2021 and even parts of last winter.

 

Yeah this is an incessant problem with our geography when it comes to winter forecasting (hell, throw summer heat domes in as well where they "shunt" south at least excuse imaginable).....we don't have very strong correlations with any single index like, say, the northern plains, PAC NW, or SE does. We have a conveniently non-dominant blend of indices that seem to affect us and we have to figure out which one is going to be the most impactful at any given lead time....all while using tools that can't really predict these indices very well more than 10 days out.

And the coup de grâce is sometimes we identify the correct pattern at good lead time and STILL fail to get the sensible wx to materialize that we'd expect in such a pattern (take the big NAO block from last December as an example)....we first narrowly missed a Dec '92 redux on 12/16, and then a nuance with the PV lobe dropping into western Canada pulled the rug on our East Coast KU threat and turned it into a Buffalo blizzard on 12/23-24. Hey, at least we froze our asses off with the cold front for a couple days....yay.

 

I will say this though....learning to forecast in New England is great. It makes many other areas a cakewalk by comparison.

Folks may not remember but we spent a couple few days when that was some 7 days out, where the runs were plotting 970 mb lows on the Del Marva ... It really only committed to a Cleveland Super Bomb redux track until like 84 to 96 hours out...

Then, as the arctic intrusion across mid latitude continent made a lot of press (that probably doesn't get remembered to well in the shadow of the enormous LE blizzard over NW PA/W NY)  by the time the low pulled N into Ontario and the cold did the old under belly route, it was sort of modifying already.  The cold we got was not very impressive. 

The cold with that weird 20 hour deal in the first week of Feb was probably the only headline we earned that entire wretched season.

I cannot confirm or deny ENSO was the culprit last year ... and given the context at hand, I'm inclined to say it was only partial... etc.  Just the same, I am more than happy to have finalized the divorce proceedings with that particular three years of history -

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks may not remember but we spent a couple few days when that was some 7 days out, where the runs were plotting 970 mb lows on the Del Marva ... It really only committed to a Cleveland Super Bomb redux track until like 84 to 96 hours out...

Then, as the arctic intrusion across mid latitude continent made a lot of press (that probably doesn't get remembered to well in the shadow of the enormous LE blizzard over NW PA/W NY)  by the time the low pulled N into Ontario and the cold did the old under belly route, it was sort of modifying already.  The cold we got was not very impressive. 

The cold with that weird 20 hour deal in the first week of Feb was probably the only headline we earned that entire wretched season.

I cannot confirm or deny ENSO was the culprit last year ... and given the context at hand, I'm inclined to say it was only partial... etc.  Just the same, I am more than happy to have finalized the divorce proceedings with that particular three years of history -

Yeah the arctic cold behind the Buffalo blizzard wasn't that great by the time it got to New England....one of the worst cold deliveries for us is W or WSW. Works a lot better further west.....that said, ORH with its recent 2F warm bias ASOS still put up a 14/5 on Xmas Eve which is no slouch....it's not record-breaking, by any stretch, but a windy 14/5 day isn't going to earn many high marks amongst those who hate brutal cold.

It was sort of the nail in the coffin for a shit-sandwich sensible wx solution in that pattern though....screws us by cutting the storm west, but do it in a manner where the brutal arctic cold behind it is hitting DC and Richmond VA long before it hits us as to minimize any chance of intriguing anomalies....but still be cold enough to find it excessively annoying to walk outside. We probably wouldn't mind a still/calm Christmas Eve morning at 5F where a snow packed sidewalk is squeaking under our feet and woodstove smoke rising straight up until it hits an inversion 100 feet up, but of course we don't get that kind of 5F morning on Xmas Eve last year....we get a windy 5F with bare ground and maybe a rogue frozen puddle in the driveway to remind us we had a driving rainstorm 24 hours earlier....like I said, a shit sandwich. I think a few lucky souls to the north of Rt 2 had that rogue snowsquall hit them with 2-3" though....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks may not remember but we spent a couple few days when that was some 7 days out, where the runs were plotting 970 mb lows on the Del Marva ... It really only committed to a Cleveland Super Bomb redux track until like 84 to 96 hours out...

Then, as the arctic intrusion across mid latitude continent made a lot of press (that probably doesn't get remembered to well in the shadow of the enormous LE blizzard over NW PA/W NY)  by the time the low pulled N into Ontario and the cold did the old under belly route, it was sort of modifying already.  The cold we got was not very impressive. 

The cold with that weird 20 hour deal in the first week of Feb was probably the only headline we earned that entire wretched season.

I cannot confirm or deny ENSO was the culprit last year ... and given the context at hand, I'm inclined to say it was only partial... etc.  Just the same, I am more than happy to have finalized the divorce proceedings with that particular three years of history -

I think two things doomed last winter.

1) La nina evolved into a modoki event precisely as winter began, which set the wheels of mid winter's demise into motion on the heels of the record RNA screwing December over.

2) Record RNA negating any favorable stretches....this bookended the mid-winter-modoki la nina inferno with December and March porkings. The book-end cosmic dildoes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the arctic cold behind the Buffalo blizzard wasn't that great by the time it got to New England....one of the worst cold deliveries for us is W or WSW. Works a lot better further west.....that said, ORH with its recent 2F warm bias ASOS still put up a 14/5 on Xmas Eve which is no slouch....it's not record-breaking, by any stretch, but a windy 14/5 day isn't going to earn many high marks amongst those who hate brutal cold.

It was sort of the nail in the coffin for a shit-sandwich sensible wx solution in that pattern though....screws us by cutting the storm west, but do it in a manner where the brutal arctic cold behind it is hitting DC and Richmond VA long before it hits us as to minimize any chance of intriguing anomalies....but still be cold enough to find it excessively annoying to walk outside. We probably wouldn't mind a still/calm Christmas Eve morning at 5F where a snow packed sidewalk is squeaking under our feet and woodstove smoke rising straight up until it hits an inversion 100 feet up, but of course we don't get that kind of 5F morning on Xmas Eve last year....we get a windy 5F with bare ground and maybe a rogue frozen puddle in the driveway to remind us we had a driving rainstorm 24 hours earlier....like I said, a shit sandwich. I think a few lucky souls to the north of Rt 2 had that rogue snowsquall hit them with 2-3" though....

I had that....would have to look at my records, but I think I had like a 1/2".

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had that....would have to look at my records, but I think I had like a 1/2".

Yeah you caught the tail end of them IIRC before they died....I think towns like Groton/Pepperell/Townsend/Dunstable had 2-3"

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you caught the tail end of them IIRC before they died....I think towns like Groton/Pepperell/Townsend/Dunstable had 2-3"

here too in all honesty .. but in the shadow of 'what could have been' it was annoying -

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you caught the tail end of them IIRC before they died....I think towns like Groton/Pepperell/Townsend/Dunstable had 2-3"

Yea, best was west of me.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, best was west of me.

Pretty sure Hubby had almost 4". Shocking lol. I remember the RGEM actually had that.

[brooklynwx99]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the arctic cold behind the Buffalo blizzard wasn't that great by the time it got to New England....one of the worst cold deliveries for us is W or WSW. Works a lot better further west.....that said, ORH with its recent 2F warm bias ASOS still put up a 14/5 on Xmas Eve which is no slouch....it's not record-breaking, by any stretch, but a windy 14/5 day isn't going to earn many high marks amongst those who hate brutal cold.

It was sort of the nail in the coffin for a shit-sandwich sensible wx solution in that pattern though....screws us by cutting the storm west, but do it in a manner where the brutal arctic cold behind it is hitting DC and Richmond VA long before it hits us as to minimize any chance of intriguing anomalies....but still be cold enough to find it excessively annoying to walk outside. We probably wouldn't mind a still/calm Christmas Eve morning at 5F where a snow packed sidewalk is squeaking under our feet and woodstove smoke rising straight up until it hits an inversion 100 feet up, but of course we don't get that kind of 5F morning on Xmas Eve last year....we get a windy 5F with bare ground and maybe a rogue frozen puddle in the driveway to remind us we had a driving rainstorm 24 hours earlier....like I said, a shit sandwich. I think a few lucky souls to the north of Rt 2 had that rogue snowsquall hit them with 2-3" though....

it's really a shame. that PV lobe prevented what could have been a 1-3 foot burial if that thing got over the water. some of those solutions before that lobe messed things up were insane

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's really a shame. that PV lobe prevented what could have been a 1-3 foot burial if that thing got over the water. some of those solutions before that lobe messed things up were insane

Yep, wasting that block was a huge downer....but it's happened before and will happen again. Kind of reminded me a bit of the December 1987 pattern where we wasted an awesome NAO block too.

It's the reverse scenario of when we get hammered by storm after storm despite a +AO/NAO and -PNA...sometimes we end up lucky but times like last December, we get the shit sandwich instead.