weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Just now, 512high said: This stuff is wayyyyy over my head, I take it we don't want a strong "Nino"? But a weak-moderate? The rate the summer is going I have no idea what to expect this Winter! ehhh it really goes much deeper then that. Not all strong EL Nino's are warm winter. We've had some colder than average winter's. Here is a composite of temperature anomalies for weak, moderate, and strong EL Nino winters. ENSO clearly has a strong influence, but there is so much more to it then just ENSO phase and strength. You can see the variation which exists for each season of the same strength magnitude. Lots get discussed too about structure of the ENSO event and where tropical forcing is positioned, but even with those mixed in the signals aren't entirely clear cut. There are so many other factors and influences. As I've done composites on an event-by-event basis instead of just grouping together a bunch of years with similar strength or structure it becomes more evident there are many wild cards and ultimately there is always a different feature which is going to be the driver or a key contributor. Weak: Moderate: Strong Super-strong: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 I’d take 1965-66 in a heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 1 hour ago, 512high said: This stuff is wayyyyy over my head, I take it we don't want a strong "Nino"? But a weak-moderate? The rate the summer is going I have no idea what to expect this Winter! It’s not going to be a weak Nino and probably not moderate either. Im leaning toward a strong Nino at the moment but short of “Super Nino” in the ‘82-83, ‘97-98, and ‘15-16 mold. Borderline cases like ‘72-73 and ‘65-66 are right in the mix though…and they are good PDO matches. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I’d take 1965-66 in a heartbeat. I’d love to see what type of production we get from that type of pattern in the modern day juiced SST environment. My guess is it would be really good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11, 2023 Author Share Posted July 11, 2023 1 hour ago, 512high said: This stuff is wayyyyy over my head, I take it we don't want a strong "Nino"? But a weak-moderate? The rate the summer is going I have no idea what to expect this Winter! TBH, I would prefer a moderate-strong event in terms of ONI...all set with another 2018-2019. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11, 2023 Author Share Posted July 11, 2023 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s not going to be a weak Nino and probably not moderate either. Im leaning toward a strong Nino at the moment but short of “Super Nino” in the ‘82-83, ‘97-98, and ‘15-16 mold. Borderline cases like ‘72-73 and ‘65-66 are right in the mix though…and they are good PDO matches. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d love to see what type of production we get from that type of pattern in the modern day juiced SST environment. My guess is it would be really good. I obviously wasn’t born in 65-66, and don’t know what the winter did that season, but if you and Jerry would take it(I know you weren’t around then either), count me in too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I obviously wasn’t born in 65-66, and don’t know what the winter did that season, but if you and Jerry would take it(I know you weren’t around then either), count me in too. I was a freshman in college in upstate NY for the blizzard of ‘66. Absolutely crushed with close to 3 feet! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 The only reason I am optimistic for the upcoming winter is because its the only winter we are getting this year. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 5 hours ago, cleetussnow said: The only reason I am optimistic for the upcoming winter is because it’s the only winter we are getting this year. And it can’t be any worse(here at least..SNE)than last year. 12 inches and some change for the entire 22-23 season here. I’ll take the high on that happening again two years straight. This year could also be a Rat, and still easily beat last year here…so ya I’m optimistic too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 4 hours ago, WinterWolf said: And it can’t be any worse(here at least..SNE)than last year. 12 inches and some change for the entire 22-23 season here. I’ll take the high on that happening again two years straight. This year could also be a Rat, and still easily beat last year here…so ya I’m optimistic too. I’ll disagree there. It’s going to be hard to be worse, but it can Always always always be worse. We’re pretty much doing feast or famine these days, not a lot in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 We moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: We moderate What is the based on? I'll take the over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 The statistical models seem weak to moderate...maybe that weighs in? But I look at those and pretty much toss em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: What is the based on? I'll take the over. Noaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: What is the based on? I'll take the over. I agree. I know there is a lot of hype about every enso event, but I am a strong believer in this El Niño. I think it will continue to grow, the question is will it peak in October or later (November/December). If it keeps growing until December I think we will see a peak of around +2.0-2.2, if it stops growing in October +1.4-1.6 makes sense. The models disagree right now but either way I think a strong El Niño is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 18 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’ll disagree there. It’s going to be hard to be worse, but it can Always always always be worse. We’re pretty much doing feast or famine these days, not a lot in between. Well of course…we could get 6” next season I suppose. But I’ll bet against the 6” season next year, and also against another 12” season back to back that’s for sure..especially when average is about 50”. This isn’t Baltimore. So ya, we gonna bounce back this next winter season…you’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 19 hours ago, CoastalWx said: The statistical models seem weak to moderate...maybe that weighs in? But I look at those and pretty much toss em. Toss statisticals... just getting a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 15 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Well of course…we could get 6” next season I suppose. But I’ll bet against the 6” season next year, and also against another 12” season back to back that’s for sure..especially when average is about 50”. This isn’t Baltimore. So ya, we gonna bounce back this next winter season…you’ll see. Yeah I’d be shocked if your area was worse than last year. The only silver lining to such a shitty season is that even a merely run-of-the-mill subpar season will feel like a decent winter in comparison. Even in my area, I’d be surprised if we were as bad. I had something like 33” which was the lowest since probably ‘99-00 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I’d be shocked if your area was worse than last year. The only silver lining to such a shitty season is that even a merely run-of-the-mill subpar season will feel like a decent winter in comparison. Even in my area, I’d be surprised if we were as bad. I had something like 33” which was the lowest since probably ‘99-00 here. I will probably do better, too....40.5" last year. I had around that in '97'98 and '72-'73, which are the worst case sceanrios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will probably do better, too....40.5" last year. I had around that in '97'98 and '72-'73, which are the worst case sceanrios. Just give us a nice high to the north and not something that is retreating to the Andrea Gale. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Just give us a nice high to the north and not something that is retreating to the Andrea Gale. I’m still going to be amazed by that in like 30 years if I’m still around. Just storm after storm after storm where we had a high over the Grand Banks…I think one storm had a good high (Jan 23rd I want to say? And that high built in kind of late so it was a rain to snow deal) Even a high retreating over Nova Scotia would’ve been adequate on a few of those events. At least you get good front enders sometimes on those highs even when it doesn’t stay 100% snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m still going to be amazed by that in like 30 years if I’m still around. Just storm after storm after storm where we had a high over the Grand Banks…I think one storm had a good high (Jan 23rd I want to say? And that high built in kind of late so it was a rain to snow deal) Even a high retreating over Nova Scotia would’ve been adequate on a few of those events. At least you get good front enders sometimes on those highs even when it doesn’t stay 100% snow. It became comical. Sometimes on the coast you can still be screwed but to pork into areas of ORH county time and time again? That’s ridiculous lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It became comical. Sometimes on the coast you can still be screwed but to pork into areas of ORH county time and time again? That’s ridiculous lol. Yeah I can’t remember how many times it screwed me over back around 495 which doesn’t usually happen. You’ll see it a couple times per winter but not almost every storm…lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 @ORH_wxman when looking at the PDO, what would you say is the best way of classifying a true positive vs. true negative episode and trying to classify a stronger vs. weaker event? I know a lot of folks use the raw numbers, but as has been discussed before using raw numbers alone can be extremely misleading. I'm thinking of doing something like a true positive (negative) (and stronger episode) is when you have higher(lower) anomalies both within the western PAC and off the west coast. If there is an episode where only one of these conditions are met, it's considered a "weaker episode. For example, if we look at 1902-1903 the raw PDO numbers are as follows for the following months: August: 1.81 September: 0.89 October: 1.11 November: 0.74 The ASON average comes out to be 1.14 Looking at that alone you would think that's a pretty solid +PDO, but the SSTAs I think tell a different story. I would not necessarily classify this as a +PDO as you're really lacking the warmer waters off the western United States coast and it would seem to be the PDO number is being inflated by the anomalously cool waters in the western Pacific. Rolling into the DJFM period, the values are December: 0.44 January: -0.04 February: 0.10 March: -0.19 DJFM: 0.08 This is certainly more reflective of a nearly neutral PDO (or very weakly positive) which the SSTA configuration would merely reflect: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 On 7/8/2023 at 3:58 PM, weathafella said: It’s not getting any better. Still a month or 2 before I issue a full ratter call. Another week-not much change. 3.4 probably never gets to low strong at most but man that east basis spooks me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 A bit of a spike in 3.4 and 4. Let's hope it continues! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 16, 2023 Author Share Posted July 16, 2023 11 hours ago, weathafella said: Another week-not much change. 3.4 probably never gets to low strong at most but man that east basis spooks me! Why don't you look at the EMI forecast from Jamestec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 16, 2023 Author Share Posted July 16, 2023 Paul loves using analogs from the civil war era. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why don't you look at the EMI forecast from Jamestec? It sucks for us September through November with a much better look December through February. It would argue for a late blooming winter with lower than normal snow given lag. December through February would probably suck. And that’s if it’s right. I’m not making any predictions-yet. But if it looks like the current picture in September imho we’re screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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