Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 15 hours ago, weathafella said: It’s not getting any better. Still a month or 2 before I issue a full ratter call. As of now it is forecast to be record strong Nino. That can’t be good for anyone in the East 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: As of now it is forecast to be record strong Nino. That can’t be good for anyone in the East Says who? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: As of now it is forecast to be record strong Nino. That can’t be good for anyone in the East It's all about the forcing which is displaced westward far moreso than a super Nino like 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Says who? a few warm outliers of the ECMWF that are surely being shot around on twitter. that’s about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 People are deluding themselves if they think the ssta distribution is not worrisome now. It could change of course but by September we’re almost out of time so it better be fast. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Jerry has been around a long time, if he’s expecting a rat, take note. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Jerry has been around a long time, if he’s expecting a rat, take note. 1957-58 did the same thing. was super east-based, shifted west, and was a great winter with central-based forcing. most models are showing the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Says who? DT (WxRisk) has been on the strong El Nino train but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: 1957-58 did the same thing. was super east-based, shifted west, and was a great winter with central-based forcing. most models are showing the same That’s why I’m waiting. But as of now I’m concerned. As an aside, we had a great snow dump in the first week of December 1957. My 11th bday party was a mid week lunch (kids went home for lunch then) with darkening skies and temperatures around 40. 13.3 inches later…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 38 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s why I’m waiting. But as of now I’m concerned. As an aside, we had a great snow dump in the first week of December 1957. My 11th bday party was a mid week lunch (kids went home for lunch then) with darkening skies and temperatures around 40. 13.3 inches later…. Jerry, How the hell can you remember what the weather was on your 11th birthday! I'm 60 , I can't remember somethings a few weeks ago ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 hour ago, 512high said: Jerry, How the hell can you remember what the weather was on your 11th birthday! I'm 60 , I can't remember somethings a few weeks ago ! You remember the snows! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: You remember the snows! I remember some good events, but man you impressed me with the date, and going home for lunch etc. Good stuff!, and hopefully things go in our favor for this upcoming snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 4 hours ago, weathafella said: People are deluding themselves if they think the ssta distribution is not worrisome now. It could change of course but by September we’re almost out of time so it better be fast. Yeah I don’t like how strong and how east based this El Niño is. Statistically strong El Niños are the second worst enso state for the Boston area snowfall wise, with the worst being super. This doesn’t take structure into account so it’s not good to take it as gospel, but when we have a strong or super nino AND the structure is unfavorable, that’s not good no matter how you look at it. As big of a weenie as I am, even I’m concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 4 hours ago, weathafella said: That’s why I’m waiting. But as of now I’m concerned. As an aside, we had a great snow dump in the first week of December 1957. My 11th bday party was a mid week lunch (kids went home for lunch then) with darkening skies and temperatures around 40. 13.3 inches later…. I’m waiting and watching too. I haven’t checked lately but despite the SST anomaly, this has been more west based forcing. Maybe it has an effect down the road…I don’t know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m waiting and watching too. I haven’t checked lately but despite the SST anomaly, this has been more west based forcing. Maybe it has an effect down the road…I don’t know. I don’t know what to think. We’ve got Jerry’s years of experience but George is nearly always wildly, extravagantly wrong. What does it mean when they’re on the same side? I’m torn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 10, 2023 Author Share Posted July 10, 2023 20 hours ago, weathafella said: People are deluding themselves if they think the ssta distribution is not worrisome now. It could change of course but by September we’re almost out of time so it better be fast. Yea, this ssta distribution would be worrisome if it were December. Do me a favor, look at a ssta anomaly chart from November of last year, and then look at one from January as you recall the overall tenor of last season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 10, 2023 Author Share Posted July 10, 2023 20 hours ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) has been on the strong El Nino train but..... It probably will be strong, but big diff between 1.7 and 2.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 15 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I’m waiting and watching too. I haven’t checked lately but despite the SST anomaly, this has been more west based forcing. Maybe it has an effect down the road…I don’t know. The forcing being way west all summer is definitely really weird compared to the Super Ninos....that and the PDO. I wonder if this one tops out more like 1.8 or something on the trimonthly ONI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 10, 2023 Author Share Posted July 10, 2023 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The forcing being way west all summer is definitely really weird compared to the Super Ninos....that and the PDO. I wonder if this one tops out more like 1.8 or something on the trimonthly ONI. PDO makes me suspect 3 things about this winter: 1) Polar Domain will make or break this season 2) Inceased risk of deconstructive interference with amplifying waves during neg NAO periods..this ties into 3. 3) Idea of a mid Atlantic focus for snowfall with appreciably strong el nino events is less likely this year....at least in terms of historic deals. We may see some sheared out, attenuating waves dump moderate snows down there either fail to turn the corner and/or dizzle out with latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 10, 2023 Author Share Posted July 10, 2023 People need to remember that huge storms are relatively rare for a reason. It's not just about getting teleconnection bingo, but you also need to hit on the right wave spacing and relative intensity and orientation of each said index. The latter is often more difficult to achieve than the teleconnections bingo...that is one thing I have learned the past few years during this seemingly interminable cool ENSO stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 new data looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, this ssta distribution would be worrisome if it were December. Do me a favor, look at a ssta anomaly chart from November of last year, and then look at one from January as you recall the overall tenor of last season. At what point is it too late? I always thought it’s about a 3 month lag pattern wise. Like we agree, it looks bad now but let’s see where we are in autumn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Maybe random but 1997 matches up well with this July. In fact this year looks worse globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11, 2023 Author Share Posted July 11, 2023 5 hours ago, weathafella said: At what point is it too late? I always thought it’s about a 3 month lag pattern wise. Like we agree, it looks bad now but let’s see where we are in autumn. Probably February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably February. That seems late. Almost like instant pattern behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 53 minutes ago, weathafella said: That seems late. Almost like instant pattern behavior. I usually stop looking at ENSO in December. I suppose fast changes in January can still lead to a change in end-of-winter pattern ala late Feb into first half of March but the larger scale impacts mostly seem baked in by new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11, 2023 Author Share Posted July 11, 2023 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I usually stop looking at ENSO in December. I suppose fast changes in January can still lead to a change in end-of-winter pattern ala late Feb into first half of March but the larger scale impacts mostly seem baked in by new years. I feel like weakening still has an impact on March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like weakening still has an impact on March. Yeah it prob does…esp if it is rapid, then the effects are non-linear. March is kind of weird though in that other factors start increasing in relevance too due to the strong increase in solar insolation compared to mid-winter. But if we’re focusing on the meat of the winter (mid Dec through mid/late February), ENSO stuff after new years is largely irrelevant. This is going to be an interesting evolution to follow though because of all the weird stuff going on as this Nino strengthens (the west-based forcing and the extremely negative PDO are two of the biggest unconventional factors so far) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Haven't checked in here in a bit but I had a hunch I would see some posts about the PDO. It will be interesting to see what role the PDO plays moving into winter. While there is a correlation between ENSO/PDO phase, we're well into a negative PDO regime and the overall list of EL Nino's coincident with -PDO is relatively short (compared to the EL Nino dataset). Below is a list of -PDO winters coincident with EL Nino (note: this list only includes years where PDO was obviously negative) and EL Nino strength 1911-1912 (moderate EL Nino) 1914-1915 (borderline weak/moderate EL Nino) 1919-1920 (weak EL Nino) 1923-1924 (borderline weak/moderate EL Nino) 1951-1952 (moderate EL Nino) 1953-1954 (weak EL Nino) 1965-1966 (Super-strong EL Nino) 1968-1969 (moderate EL Nino) 1972-1973 (Super-strong EL Nino) 2004-2005 (weak EL Nino) 2006-2007 (weak EL Nino) 2018-2019 (weak EL Nino) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Haven't checked in here in a bit but I had a hunch I would see some posts about the PDO. It will be interesting to see what role the PDO plays moving into winter. While there is a correlation between ENSO/PDO phase, we're well into a negative PDO regime and the overall list of EL Nino's coincident with -PDO is relatively short (compared to the EL Nino dataset). Below is a list of -PDO winters coincident with EL Nino (note: this list only includes years where PDO was obviously negative) and EL Nino strength 1911-1912 (moderate EL Nino) 1914-1915 (borderline weak/moderate EL Nino) 1919-1920 (weak EL Nino) 1923-1924 (borderline weak/moderate EL Nino) 1951-1952 (moderate EL Nino) 1953-1954 (weak EL Nino) 1965-1966 (Super-strong EL Nino) 1968-1969 (moderate EL Nino) 1972-1973 (Super-strong EL Nino) 2004-2005 (weak EL Nino) 2006-2007 (weak EL Nino) 2018-2019 (weak EL Nino) This stuff is wayyyyy over my head, I take it we don't want a strong "Nino"? But a weak-moderate? The rate the summer is going I have no idea what to expect this Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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