2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[STILL N OF PIKE]

As bad as last year was for haters of cold rain and non accumulating snow , I did enjoy much of the February weather when we had highs in low to mid 40’s and sun . If that would have been arctic cold with winds and suppression I would have been absolutely miserable . Zero use for very cold and dry . 

[weathafella]

I have to admit that looking at the distribution increases my pessimism for the upcoming winter.  Nevertheless it can change and we're still in June so I would not forecast anything just yet but man if this continues we can have a pretty wet but too warm for much snow winter.   

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

I have to admit that looking at the distribution increases my pessimism for the upcoming winter.  Nevertheless it can change and we're still in June so I would not forecast anything just yet but man if this continues we can have a pretty wet but too warm for much snow winter.   

The weird part is that the forcing has been consistently west so far despite the SST anomalies being skewed solidly east.

[brooklynwx99]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The weird part is that the forcing has been consistently west so far despite the SST anomalies being skewed solidly east.

I think the WPAC warm pool might help drag the forcing west

this hurts us during La Ninas where it drags forcing west towards Indonesia, but can help in Ninos where it drags the forcing towards the Dateline. we'll see, but I'm optimistic

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think the WPAC warm pool might help drag the forcing west

this hurts us during La Ninas where it drags forcing west towards Indonesia, but can help in Ninos where it drags the forcing towards the Dateline. we'll see, but I'm optimistic

Its been a semi permanent configuration for several years...really going back to 2016, following the super el nino....that is why we had maritime-nina forcing during the 2018 el nino. I don't think we are going to see east based forcing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The weird part is that the forcing has been consistently west so far despite the SST anomalies being skewed solidly east.

Yea, the SST configuration in June is completely and utterly irrelevant as it pertains to winter. Not only can it change, at the end of the day, the forcing is all that matters. If that remains west, no one will care how warm nino 1.2 is.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the SST configuration in June is completely and utterly irrelevant as it pertains to winter. Not only can it change, at the end of the day, the forcing is all that matters. If that remains west, no one will care how warm nino 1.2 is.

if this is correct, there is no way we aren't getting blasted. this has the MJO sitting in 7-8-1 all winter with a strong Nino. sign me up

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if this is correct, there is no way we aren't getting blasted. this has the MJO sitting in 7-8-1 all winter with a strong Nino. sign me up

Look at my latest blog...that matches my basin wide, mod-strong el nino composite forcing perfectly.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Look at my latest blog...that matches my basin wide, mod-strong el nino composite forcing perfectly.

yup, I saw and agree. that's why I think models like the CanSIPS actually have a clue. here's the NMME as well... 200mb, but this is still mint and very similar to the CanSIPS

 

[brooklynwx99]

also, look at how the NMME sloshes the warmest anomalies over towards the dateline as the fall progresses. kind of reminds me of 1957-58, but stronger

[brooklynwx99]

not saying this towards anyone in particular, but I have no idea how anyone can be pessimistic about this winter outside of far NNE. there could be a lot going for it, and the east-based super Nino stuff is becoming more and more far-fetched by the day

if anything, this is our best chance for a big winter from BOS to DC since 2014-15. 2020-21 was a bit fluky and not that widespread

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not saying this towards anyone in particular, but I have no idea how anyone can be pessimistic about this winter outside of far NNE. there could be a lot going for it, and the east-based super Nino stuff is becoming more and more far-fetched by the day

if anything, this is our best chance for a big winter from BOS to DC since 2014-15. 2020-21 was a bit fluky and not that widespread

Stronger Ninos are frequently boom or bust. But I’m feeling cautiously optimistic right now that we end up with something good.
 

We’ll see what happens the next 4-6 weeks but it feels like a true super Nino is getting harder to obtain given the non-SST metrics right now. It will be hard to keep up with 1997 or 2015 I think over the next month. 
 

But ENSO is the ultimate humble pie…I’ve seen so many times where we were certain by mid or late summer and then it just didn’t do what we thought it was going to do. 

[George001]

10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not saying this towards anyone in particular, but I have no idea how anyone can be pessimistic about this winter outside of far NNE. there could be a lot going for it, and the east-based super Nino stuff is becoming more and more far-fetched by the day

if anything, this is our best chance for a big winter from BOS to DC since 2014-15. 2020-21 was a bit fluky and not that widespread

Im concerned about the -PDO strong nino combination. 1972-1973 is considered an analog by experts like Raindance, which was somehow an even less snowy winter than last “winter”. Strong ninos aren’t favorable for my area historically, I’d be more excited if I lived NYC south. Even if the +3 that the Australian model is forecasting is bullshit (it is), even a +2 peak could be enough to torch our winter. Due to these factors I’m setting my expectations low, but if come November the Nino is something like +1.2-1.6 and is basin wide or west leaning I’ll become more optimistic. Not delusional like I was the past few years, just bumping up my expectations from ratter-below average to average-slightly above average.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stronger Ninos are frequently boom or bust. But I’m feeling cautiously optimistic right now that we end up with something good.
 

We’ll see what happens the next 4-6 weeks but it feels like a true super Nino is getting harder to obtain given the non-SST metrics right now. It will be hard to keep up with 1997 or 2015 I think over the next month. 
 

But ENSO is the ultimate humble pie…I’ve seen so many times where we were certain by mid or late summer and then it just didn’t do what we thought it was going to do. 

We aren't. No way..I have said that dating back to last winter. There is a certain periodicity to those highest magnitude el nino events and we just had one 8 years ago. Historically speaking, usually coming out of a protracted period of cold ENSO we see a healthy basin wide or modoki event. Obviously a modoki event is pretty farfetched considering how biased to the east we have begun, but this isn't going to be east-based.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

Im concerned about the -PDO strong nino combination. 1972-1973 is considered an analog by experts like Raindance, which was somehow an even less snowy winter than last “winter”. Strong ninos aren’t favorable for my area historically, I’d be more excited if I lived NYC south. Even if the +3 that the Australian model is forecasting is bullshit (it is), even a +2 peak could be enough to torch our winter. Due to these factors I’m setting my expectations low, but if come November the Nino is something like +1.2-1.6 and is basin wide or west leaning I’ll become more optimistic. Not delusional like I was the past few years, just bumping up my expectations from ratter-below average to average-slightly above average.

It does make me nervous because he is a very good seasonal forecaster, but I can tell you right now this isn't going to end up as east based as 1972 was....and like last season, we also had some tough breaks that year. It wasn't event that warm. At the end of the day, we all bring something to the table and I have learned a lot from raindance. Incorporating precip and temp matches like he does to complement the ENSO work that I do has really helped. But I feel like the devil was in the details last winter....at the end of the day, paltry snowfall was the way to go for the east coast, but most seasonal forecasters that went in that direction also had very little blocking, which wasn't accurate.

[ORH_wxman]

Trade winds don't look very favorable over the next few weeks. Things can change obviously later in July and August....but at the moment, I think something in the 1.6-1.9 range is more likely than low 2s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trade winds don't look very favorable over the next few weeks. Things can change obviously later in July and August....but at the moment, I think something in the 1.6-1.9 range is more likely than low 2s.

1.6-1.9 ONI....and then when you factor in the W PAC warm pool that is pulling the forcing closer to the dateline, the Relative ONI would probably be like 1.3-1.6. This is why I included moderate el nino events in my first composite last week. Something like 1957 and 1986 is very possible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1957 also looks like a decent solar match.

[Rtd208]

I can sense the sarcasm. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I can sense the sarcasm. 

 

I think John would agree that it is mildly reassuring to see some of these favorable seasonal solutions in that a power-house canonical el nino is not a given.

[weathafella]

On 6/27/2023 at 3:57 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

not saying this towards anyone in particular, but I have no idea how anyone can be pessimistic about this winter outside of far NNE. there could be a lot going for it, and the east-based super Nino stuff is becoming more and more far-fetched by the day

if anything, this is our best chance for a big winter from BOS to DC since 2014-15. 2020-21 was a bit fluky and not that widespread

It’s not pessimism-it’s a lack of any reason RIGHT NOW to be overly optimistic.  Let’s see what things look like in 2 months.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/26/2023 at 11:46 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, Nino 1+2 and 3 aren’t having the same forcing influence like they did at this point in 1997 due to the WPAC being so much warmer.

 

 

On 6/27/2023 at 3:48 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, I saw and agree. that's why I think models like the CanSIPS actually have a clue. here's the NMME as well... 200mb, but this is still mint and very similar to the CanSIPS

 

 

On 6/27/2023 at 3:53 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

also, look at how the NMME sloshes the warmest anomalies over towards the dateline as the fall progresses. kind of reminds me of 1957-58, but stronger

 

18 hours ago, weathafella said:

It’s not pessimism-it’s a lack of any reason RIGHT NOW to be overly optimistic.  Let’s see what things look like in 2 months.

I feel like there is plenty of reason for optimism RIGHT NOW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/27/2023 at 3:43 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

if this is correct, there is no way we aren't getting blasted. this has the MJO sitting in 7-8-1 all winter with a strong Nino. sign me up

Add this to the list.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Obviously there are no guarantees and the low hanging fruit is to remind me of how bad last season was when I thought it would be near normal, but like last season, I am seeing signs that more often than not will lead to a decent winter. 

The blocking showed up last year and we are good with that 7-8 times out of 10, but the historic anomaly out west was tough to predict. Seasonal forecasters should be likened to an ensemble mean in medium range forecasting.....its tough to ever forecast something that extreme at the outer edge of the forecast range. Yea, the -PDO was predictable, but that was obscene.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Can someone clarify, did Boston see 2" of snowfall Dec-Feb 18-19, or 17-18? I think that and last years snowfall along the coast are two strong plot points for current movement, on the "less" side of possibilities. 

(I feel Boston has some kind of block around legit extreme snowfall, re: global warming trend at this time.  It could snow, but then be followed by warm days.)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 6/28/2023 at 7:05 PM, Rtd208 said:

I can sense the sarcasm. 

I don't see why not. The NAO is negatively correlating, that's the only difference (-nao is correlating with +EPO/-PNA, +nao is better overall for snowfall). This started in the -PNA extremes after Dec 2010. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Can someone clarify, did Boston see 2" of snowfall Dec-Feb 18-19, or 17-18? I think that and last years snowfall along the coast are two strong plot points for current movement, on the "less" side of possibilities. 

(I feel Boston has some kind of block around legit extreme snowfall, re: global warming trend at this time.  It could snow, but then be followed by warm days.)

2017-2018 was a very good season.

[CoastalWx]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Can someone clarify, did Boston see 2" of snowfall Dec-Feb 18-19, or 17-18? I think that and last years snowfall along the coast are two strong plot points for current movement, on the "less" side of possibilities. 

(I feel Boston has some kind of block around legit extreme snowfall, re: global warming trend at this time.  It could snow, but then be followed by warm days.)

None of those years had snow that low. Even though BOS was measuring on a septic tank 5 miles offshore. Luckily that’s  been corrected. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Scott is calling for a big winter as well . It’s good to see 

[weathafella]

It’s not getting any better.  Still a month or 2 before I issue a full ratter call.