qg_omega Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 On 11/4/2023 at 1:32 PM, forkyfork said: Finally a real post about this upcoming classic strong east based Nino 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i’ll take this 10/10 times Brutal December look, full stop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 34 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Brutal December look, full stop It's not brutal. Only you and snowman think so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 59 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Brutal December look, full stop who cares? Nino Decembers usually suck so this isn’t some grand insight like you think it is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Another look. Webb may have a meltdown because JAN/FEB is rocking! Typic warmish Nino DEC. DEC JAN FEB FWIW, Euro drastically changed NOV from it's previous forecast. So keep in mind a lot can happen in a month that the models cannot foresee. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 SST's from Euro update for DJF: DEC JAN FEB 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Let's just hope the ENSO couples into mid latitudes strongly enough to force the Rossby orientation - I'm not so sure it will, but is admittedly experimental on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 19 hours ago, qg_omega said: Brutal December look, full stop I mean, that looks like a textbook Niño look, where Decembers are usually soupy anyway. Am I missing something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 17 hours ago, stadiumwave said: Another look. Webb may have a meltdown because JAN/FEB is rocking! Typic warmish Nino DEC. DEC JAN FEB FWIW, Euro drastically changed NOV from it's previous forecast. So keep in mind a lot can happen in a month that the models cannot foresee. I love this look. This evolution is really textbook EL Nino and especially textbook for Nino's pre 1980. I know there has been a lot of work done with Modoki EL Nino's and I have read some papers, but I still want to explore this all further because it is quite intriguing how much EL Nino evolution has changed since the early 1980's. Is it solely due to the emergence of Modoki EL Nino's which have become more common? It's possible, but I don't think it's a sole driver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 Didn't he cancel winter yesterday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Didn't he cancel winter yesterday? A couple good days of snow cover in Eurasia have changed the calculus. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A couple good days of snow cover in Eurasia have changed the calculus. Well that's it then. Time to tune up the Ariens. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well that's it then. Time to tune up the Ariens. We'll have to re-cancel though when a reindeer farts in Siberia tomorrow and melts a few sq meters of pack. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 The Eurasian cover feels like it’s up there with early falling acorns and fatter squirrels predicting winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Didn't he cancel winter yesterday? Yea, that's what I was thinking, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 lmao 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao He should worry about CC screwing up his preconceptions of telecon layouts during winter. With faster flow velocity appearing to be an unavoidable rapture that warps the standard R-wave residences ( size, location and time) Siberian doesn't mean the same thing as it did the 1990s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Severe Weather's new update seems optimistic for what its worth https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-increased-snow-depth-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2023 Author Share Posted November 7, 2023 Late Friday or Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2023 Author Share Posted November 7, 2023 19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao He is a weenie lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/todd-crawford-5a02092_elnino-thenino-weather-activity-7127989341116604417-vxbu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 fingers crossed for el nino influence dec into jan and la nina influence from mid jan through feb 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: fingers crossed for el nino influence dec into jan and la nina influence from mid jan through feb Fingers crossed, fork tongue tied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Forky likes warmer weather like Snowman19 and Torch Tiger do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 17 hours ago, George001 said: Forky likes warmer weather like Snowman19 and Torch Tiger do. Eh. I think he leans into CC every time we have a warm spell and lets face it, there a lot of warm spells to chirp over. Gets old. However when it comes to a winter storm he will call balls and strikes fairly. Good met, if a little cantankerous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 If we can maintain this massive warm pool driving the -PDO through winter I think that is going to bode very well for us. It doesn't even have to remain this intense...even if it were to weaken Obviously the PDO has been negative for quite some time and these warm anomalies have been a fixture for quite a while. This has helped to maintain very strong ridging just west of the Aleutians I was looking back at past EL Nino winter's which presented this 500mb height anomaly structure. The reasoning is as follows: The ridging west of Aleutian is yielding a persisting troughing feature within the Gulf of Alaska domain and we should continue to see this strengthened as the Aleutian Low strengthens (typical of a Nino). The Aleutian Low can make us and it can break us, but past years 1913-1914 1940-1941 1957-1958 (BIG FAVORITE OF MINE FOR AN ANALOG!!!!!) 1958-1959 1965-1966 1968-1969 1994-1995 (no please but also the Aleutian Low was rather south and we had a raging +AO) 2009-2010 all featured persisting troughing within the Northeast and also favored blocking (exception of 94-95). I am on board for some major blocking periods this winter. I mean look at those height anomalies spanning the Arctic across the hemisphere...things to me seem to be setting up nicely. While I do think Dec could be a typical EL Nino like month...I would not set this in stone yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 However, I am assuming we are going to want to see this configuration change up. These +SVP anomalies across the U.S. can't be a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: However, I am assuming we are going to want to see this configuration change up. These +SVP anomalies across the U.S. can't be a good thing yeah that's getting shaken up over the next few weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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