2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[George001]

9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We probably can’t do worse than last winter, so there’s that. 

True. I am concerned that we are getting El Niño conditions this early, but even if it’s 2016 2.0 that was a way better winter than last. That was a regular mild below average snow winter, nothing crazy. Last winter was truly historic, one of the least snowy winters on record and one of the warmest winters on record.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/18/2023 at 5:38 PM, weathafella said:

I'm worried but I feel like it won't really give any hints until September-maybe later in August.  Distribution is key and keeping the magnitude below super levels.

 

On 6/18/2023 at 10:42 PM, George001 said:

I’m keeping my expectations for this winter low with a big nino expected. I’m not going to let myself get sucked into the hype like I did the past few years. After the non winter we just had, give me an average winter and I’ll be happy with it. Nothing wrong with one big one, a couple cold stretches and a couple smaller storms.

Its fair to wonder whether a peak ONI of near 2 would be a deal breaker given that we have been seeing modest el nino events fail to couple. I'll have a blog coming up on the Relative ONI this summer.

[512high]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Its fair to wonder whether a peak ONI of near 2 would be a deal breaker given that we have been seeing modest el nino events fail to couple. I'll have a blog coming up on the Relative ONI this summer.

Thought we were turning the "page".....maybe way too early to assume, but gosh please let it be better then last year......

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/20/2023 at 3:49 PM, 512high said:

Thought we were turning the "page".....maybe way too early to assume, but gosh please let it be better then last year......

I would be surprised if you and I end up with another well below normal snowfall season.....just because of how rare it is roll snake eyes six consecutive times. I know the guys like Will, who are banned from casinos will tell me that is flawed logic, but you all know what I mean.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

On 6/20/2023 at 3:49 PM, 512high said:

Thought we were turning the "page".....maybe way too early to assume, but gosh please let it be better then last year......

You don’t like 34 rain and 33f extremely slow accumulating snow? If there was ever a year to need an extra 500-600’ elevation it was last year as we generally had the latitude 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be surprised if you and I end up with another well below normal snowfall season.....just because of how rare it is roll snake eyes six consecutive times. I know the guys like Will, who are banned from casinos will tell me that is flawed logic, but you all know what I mean.

I look at it from a different POV. While it's 50/50 to get a AN or BN snowfall winter, eventually law of averages catches up (climo) and you'll get a decent one. 

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You don’t like 34 rain and 33f extremely slow accumulating snow? If there was ever a year to need an extra 500-600’ elevation it was last year as we generally had the latitude 

My friend in Bedford NH at 500' did way better than some areas just a few miles away from him.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

On 6/22/2023 at 8:34 AM, CoastalWx said:

My friend in Bedford NH at 500' did way better than some areas just a few miles away from him.

Ya I mean it was nite and day . You got to 800’ west And NW Of me by 12 miles of me and they were well above normal Snowfall . Mason -Temple to Mont Vernon NH crushed 

[SJonesWX]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My friend in Bedford NH at 500' did way better than some areas just a few miles away from him.

can confirm. somehow we ended up just below average. which sucks because it was a WAY below average winter, if you know what I mean.

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I look at it from a different POV. While it's 50/50 to get a AN or BN snowfall winter, eventually law of averages catches up (climo) and you'll get a decent one. 

Yeah I don't see a reason to think it's going to be above average yet more than below average....the previous 5 winters aren't really relevant to affecting the 2023-24 winter. Flipping heads 5 times in a row is pretty rare, but it doesn't mean you have a better shot at tails on the 6th flip.

But you get enough trials, it eventually evens out....like it wouldn't be surprising if we went on a run of like 6 out of 8 winters being good (or better) soon. But it could also wait until the 2030s to do that....the stench of the 1980s and early 1990s didn't really get paid back fully until the 2000s/early 2010s....despite seeing some monster winters like '92-'93 or '95-'96 right after that period. We still saw plenty of ugly winters too mixed in like '94-95 and the '97-'00 period. We consistently started getting better winters in the 2000s surrounded by the occasional ratter ('01-'02, '11-'12, etc).

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya I mean it was nite and day . You got to 750‘ west And NW Of me by 10-12 miles of me and they were well above normal Snowfall . 

Last winter had one of the most consistent large delta-Ts between mid-levels and the low levels I can remember....just storm after storm after storm where you'd have like -4C 850 temps and places like ORH were struggling to accumulate snow. It was ridiculous. Typically that might happen like once per winter where you have some torch 925-950 BL flow off the water from the southeast and your snow level sits up near 2k or something, but last winter it seems to happen all the time. We could not buy a low level high pressure in a decent spot to save our lives.

We didn't even need fresh arctic highs, just something that funnels some polar dewpoints into the airmass and gives you 29F snow. We couldn't even get that.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last winter had one of the most consistent large delta-Ts between mid-levels and the low levels I can remember....just storm after storm after storm where you'd have like -4C 850 temps and places like ORH were struggling to accumulate snow. It was ridiculous. Typically that might happen like once per winter where you have some torch 925-950 BL flow off the water from the southeast and your snow level sits up near 2k or something, but last winter it seems to happen all the time. We could not buy a low level high pressure in a decent spot to save our lives.

We didn't even need fresh arctic highs, just something that funnels some polar dewpoints into the airmass and gives you 29F snow. We couldn't even get that.

I'm willing to suggest this is one of those 'hidden' sort of attributable aspects of you know what. 

I'm seeing all kinds of subtle idiosyncrasies like this that you describe above. Usually in the behavior the circulation of the hemisphere. R-wave timing to velocity of baseline flow ... it's immensely complex, yet not very obvious.  Only someone that spends/spent a lot of time observing these aspects spanning decades ( gee - who's dorky enough to do that) would "sense" these novel nuances as they are recent phenomenon. To the rest of humanity...oblivious. 

It's hard to prove - and admittedly, still plausible that these oddities happen in 1950 or 1750 or 2050...etc, of course. But the frequency of these oddities is increasing for a reason.   I started noticing that we need(ed) more direct inject of cold into our "storm maintenance" behaviors some 10 years ago, and even posted in here several times prior to the 2015 blockbuster - ha!  That February shut me up will to talk about it for some time... But last year I noticed what you are mentioning above, myself, and it hearkens back to those observations I was making years before. 

If we don't get that feed, we don't seem to cash in as often on marginal events.  The "flop" direction biases warm in recent years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

What Growing Consensus for Strong El Nino May Mean for Winter | Eastern Mass Weather

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I look at it from a different POV. While it's 50/50 to get a AN or BN snowfall winter, eventually law of averages catches up (climo) and you'll get a decent one. 

This is what I mean...I don't view it as merely a roll of the dice in Vegas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't see a reason to think it's going to be above average yet more than below average....the previous 5 winters aren't really relevant to affecting the 2023-24 winter. Flipping heads 5 times in a row is pretty rare, but it doesn't mean you have a better shot at tails on the 6th flip.

But you get enough trials, it eventually evens out....like it wouldn't be surprising if we went on a run of like 6 out of 8 winters being good (or better) soon. But it could also wait until the 2030s to do that....the stench of the 1980s and early 1990s didn't really get paid back fully until the 2000s/early 2010s....despite seeing some monster winters like '92-'93 or '95-'96 right after that period. We still saw plenty of ugly winters too mixed in like '94-95 and the '97-'00 period. We consistently started getting better winters in the 2000s surrounded by the occasional ratter ('01-'02, '11-'12, etc).

 

 

Yea, but we still got the occasional 81-82 and 86-87 mixed in.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm willing to suggest this is one of those 'hidden' sort of attributable aspects of you know what. 

I'm seeing all kinds of subtle idiosyncrasies like this that you describe above. Usually in the behavior the circulation of the hemisphere. R-wave timing to velocity of baseline flow ... it's immensely complex, yet not very obvious.  Only someone that spends/spent a lot of time observing these aspects spanning decades ( gee - who's dorky enough to do that) would "sense" these novel nuances as they are recent phenomenon. To the rest of humanity...oblivious. 

It's hard to prove - and admittedly, still plausible that these oddities happen in 1950 or 1750 or 2050...etc, of course. But the frequency of these oddities is increasing for a reason.   I started noticing that we need(ed) more direct inject of cold into our "storm maintenance" behaviors some 10 years ago, and even posted in here several times prior to the 2015 blockbuster - ha!  That February shut me up will to talk about it for some time... But last year I noticed what you are mentioning above, myself, and it hearkens back to those observations I was making years before. 

If we don't get that feed, we don't seem to cash in as often on marginal events.  The "flop" direction biases warm in recent years.

I don't feel like we've had an unusual dearth of high pressure to the north in recent years outside of last year. If anything, we probably got too many of them compared to climo for many years during the aughts through mid-2010s. Seriously....how many SWFE warning events on would-be lakes cutters did we get in those years? Probably more than the previous 25 years combined.

For the period circa 2019-2022 I wasn't noticing a lot of rainers with -3C 850 temps....maybe the occasional one like we get every year but not a parade of them like last year. Maybe it's a new paradigm, but I'd want to see years worth of data supporting it outside of one torturous winter.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but we still got the occasional 81-82 and 86-87 mixed in.

Yeah of course....sometimes we run incredibly lucky too. ORH literally had 17 consecutive winters of average or better snowfall between '55-'56 and '71-72....simple regression and statistics would've said after like 4 or 5 of them we were way overdue for a ratter, but we waited another 12 years before it happened in '72-'73.

We were eventually "repaid" during the 1979-1992 sadastic torture ritual for snow lovers in New England. This is proof that we do regress given enough time, but 5 years is nothing....even if at the time, it was unprecedented. One last example....ORH had never had more than 2 seasons in a row failing to get a 10" snowstorm until it happened in 1988-89 through 1990-91....so you would have thought there is no way it would happen again after an unprecedented 3-in-a-row, right? Wrong....we got a 4th consecutive winter that failed to have a 10" snowfall in 1991-92.

As for this winter...if we can get a west-based El Nino, even if strong, I would strongly bet against another shit snowfall winter....but all bets are off if it's a canonical strong El Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah of course....sometimes we run incredibly lucky too. ORH literally had 17 consecutive winters of average or better snowfall between '55-'56 and '71-72....simple regression and statistics would've said after like 4 or 5 of them we were way overdue for a ratter, but we waited another 12 years before it happened in '72-'73.

We were eventually "repaid" during the 1979-1992 sadastic torture ritual for snow lovers in New England. This is proof that we do regress given enough time, but 5 years is nothing....even if at the time, it was unprecedented. One last example....ORH had never had more than 2 seasons in a row failing to get a 10" snowstorm until it happened in 1988-89 through 1990-91....so you would have thought there is no way it would happen again after an unprecedented 3-in-a-row, right? Wrong....we got a 4th consecutive winter that failed to have a 10" snowfall in 1991-92.

As for this winter...if we can get a west-based El Nino, even if strong, I would strongly bet against another shit snowfall winter....but all bets are off if it's a canonical strong El Nino.

Well, I didn't rule anything out...stronger basin-wide events have a wide range of outcomes.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I didn't rule anything out...stronger  basin-wide events have a wide range if outcomes.

I'm hoping we get a colder look to this Nino given the -PDO being somewhat stubborn.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I didn't rule anything out...stronger  basin-wide events have a wide range of outcomes.

i think the western lean to the forcing that's been suggested should pull us more towards a favorable outcome rather than a crappy one

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think the western lean to the forcing that's been suggested should pull us more towards a favorable outcome rather than a crappy one

Yes, if it's right. June Jamestec guidance trended east a bit. Last year, guidance was forecasting la nina to remain east based as late as November and of course it rapidly went modoki for winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah of course....sometimes we run incredibly lucky too. ORH literally had 17 consecutive winters of average or better snowfall between '55-'56 and '71-72....simple regression and statistics would've said after like 4 or 5 of them we were way overdue for a ratter, but we waited another 12 years before it happened in '72-'73.

We were eventually "repaid" during the 1979-1992 sadastic torture ritual for snow lovers in New England. This is proof that we do regress given enough time, but 5 years is nothing....even if at the time, it was unprecedented. One last example....ORH had never had more than 2 seasons in a row failing to get a 10" snowstorm until it happened in 1988-89 through 1990-91....so you would have thought there is no way it would happen again after an unprecedented 3-in-a-row, right? Wrong....we got a 4th consecutive winter that failed to have a 10" snowfall in 1991-92.

As for this winter...if we can get a west-based El Nino, even if strong, I would strongly bet against another shit snowfall winter....but all bets are off if it's a canonical strong El Nino.

Keep in mind that I don't necessarily mean that we are due for a 100" season....but rather a reprieve from the significant snowfall deficits that have plagued my area (I know other areas have had better fortune) for 5 consecutive seasons...even if it's just one normal year and then back into the toilet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm hoping we get a colder look to this Nino given the -PDO being somewhat stubborn.

I wonder how many good el nino seasons we have had with a -PDO? Off the top of my head, 1968-1969 and maybe 1963-1964? I don't think 1965-1966 was....or 1957-1958.

EDIT: 1965-1966 was actually slightly negative...1963-1964 and 1957-1958 were positive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2004-2005 and 2009-2010 were actually barely negative...never would have guessed that.

[ORH_wxman]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2004-2005 and 2009-2010 were actually barely negative...never would have guessed that.

I'm surprised on '04-'05 but not surprised on '09-10 which occurred during a deeply negative PDO phase that had started with the back to back Ninas '07-'08 and '08-'09 and then continued right into the next couple Ninas of '10-'11 and '11-12. That PDO cycle didn't really break until 2014 IIRC when the weak El Nino started developing that summer.

[Typhoon Tip]

I suspect by some mechanical % (reduction in forcing...), the NINO will be less just by virtue of being nested in total planetary warm anomaly. 

How much... ?  golden question.  -PDO vs +PDO at least intuitively plays a role. I also suggest the western Pacific general heat source is at least transitively important ( meaning it effects down stream at times with less obviously observable markers in the R-wave.  It may materialize/betray its forcing more so by way of 'behavior' over time, rather than scalar looks... ). 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I suspect by some mechanical % (reduction in forcing...), the NINO will be less just by virtue of being nested in total planetary warm anomaly. 

How much... ?  golden question.  -PDO vs +PDO at least intuitively plays a role. I also suggest the western Pacific general heat source is at least transitively important ( meaning it effects down stream at times with less obviously observable markers in the R-wave.  It may materialize/betray its forcing more so by way of 'behavior' over time, rather than scalar looks... ). 

 

Yea, I think the RONI attempts to address this.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think the RONI attempts to address this.

I got to be totally honest Ray.. when I see "RONI"?  I get hungry for lunch .. maybe add some mushrooms and sausage -

I looked that term up. I forgot to go back and understand what and why-for, but cursory eval ... it seemed to be a some quadrature of the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) ...

I sort of rolled eyes at that point because I've becoming increasingly aggravated these day ( most likely per normal gestation of subjecting a human being to a soulless material based society, coming to the inevitable nexus with middle age ...)

anyway, ..I have an admitted bias that's probably going to take a NINO or NINA mode actually not decoupling so frequently to snap me out of.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I got to be totally honest Ray.. when I see "RONI"?  I get hungry for lunch .. maybe add some mushrooms and sausage -

I looked that term up. I forgot to go back and understand what and why-for, but cursory eval ... it seemed to be a some quadrature of the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) ...

I sort of rolled eyes at that point because I've becoming increasingly aggravated these day ( most likely per normal gestation of subjecting a human being to a soulless material based society, coming to the inevitable nexus with middle age ...)

anyway, ..I have an admitted bias that's probably going to take a NINO or NINA mode actually not decoupling so frequently to snap me out of.  

Nah.....lol

Defining El Niño indices in a warming climate - IOPscience

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah.....lol

Defining El Niño indices in a warming climate - IOPscience

Right... I feel I wrote that science 15 years ago, but I'm sitting here a voiceless contribution ...

anyway, I remember you and discussing this 5 or 6 years ago, and you were asking me that very question when I was obsessively diatribe-ing.  You asked me if this integration thing would be more noticeable during Nino versus Nina. 

I dunno. I think just the same way fire was controlled at all corners of the earth, prior to any means to travel the 'how-to' around and inform all tribes.... a lot of these "discoveries" and "theoretics" are probably more simultaneous than those with all the pomp and recognition would ever likely be aware, or reticence to admit LOL.  

..did I tell you I was in a fucked up mood today ?