Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 anyone that includes the following statement in their seasonal outlook will look and most importantly 'have been' quite savvy. 'Any given locality has increased probability during this changing climate era to observe single event precipitation results that surpasses their climatological storm signal by significant margin, even achieving a larger percentage of their entire seasonal total.' This type of synergistic phenomenon has happened too often, from summer rains to winter snows ... everywhere in the world, for too many years, not to consider as a significant impact type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 On 10/25/2023 at 7:05 PM, CoastalWx said: 60” Tolland, 70” near you? Lol. I meant for WOR. He’ll surpass 80. Average out here is 50-55” so it’s not like I’m going full George either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Actually, any predilection by the intelligentsia to engage in the manifestation of prolix exposition through a buzzword disposition form of communication notwithstanding the availability of more comprehensible, punctiliously applicable, diminutive alternatives is enough to impress you Mr. Tip. After all, you are the reigning insufferable blowhard of the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Actually, any predilection by the intelligentsia to engage in the manifestation of prolix exposition through a buzzword disposition form of communication notwithstanding the availability of more comprehensible, punctiliously applicable, diminutive alternatives is enough to impress you Mr. Tip. After all, you are the reigning insufferable blowhard of the forum. hahaha pretty sure thats you buddy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 any bets on the reigning insufferable blowhard of amwx? i’ll make good odds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: any bets on the reigning insufferable blowhard of amwx? i’ll make good odds Lmao..very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2023 Author Share Posted October 27, 2023 10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: any bets on the reigning insufferable blowhard of amwx? i’ll make good odds Guy loves to spew venom. I feel like I'd be in the running a few years ago, but age, along with a few kids and slices of humble pie have tempered me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 I don't know where to share this, so I'm sharing here in case it becomes useful: https://phys.org/news/2023-10-volcanic-eruptions-dampen-indian-ocean.amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 well I am hoping to finish up my outlook this weekend (Actually I have too b/c if not I may never and I've put too much into it ). I was going to re-write it but decided not too. If it rivals the bible in terms of length than so be it. I'm just going going into as much depth as I did with the ENSO aspect. What really sucks for me is I suck with evaluating or forecasting Arctic stuff...which I get is very hard to do, but there are individuals who are very skilled at it. I really wish I had a better understanding of all these products, how to interpret them, and how to use them for forecasting purposes https://www.stratobserve.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 If that post was hard to understand I'm happy to explain another way. I'm actually very approachable and am usually willing to do so if asked. That said, I'm also not always serious in the way I deliver material - sometimes its whimsy. I was writing that way to kid around. Anyway, to put it differently, there is clearly a rise in occurrences that exceeded leading indicators taking place all over the world. It's a worthwhile bullet point in any seasonal outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 new CanSIPS is tasty. starts warm but transitions in Jan to a pretty loaded look for Feb/Mar… -AO/NAO, +PNA/-EPO with split flow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: new CanSIPS is tasty. starts warm but transitions in Jan to a pretty loaded look for Feb/Mar… -AO/NAO, +PNA/-EPO with split flow March will rock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: March will rock? i'm skeptical... based on the analogs I've seen, March looks warm, but that could be the back half of the month. if Feb does turn out to be blocky (pretty good chance there), I could certainly see the first half of the month being pretty fun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2023 Author Share Posted November 2, 2023 10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: new CanSIPS is tasty. starts warm but transitions in Jan to a pretty loaded look for Feb/Mar… -AO/NAO, +PNA/-EPO with split flow Looks good. December looks a bit compressed to me, so you wonder if that is more of an overrunning month focused on CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i'm skeptical... based on the analogs I've seen, March looks warm, but that could be the back half of the month. if Feb does turn out to be blocky (pretty good chance there), I could certainly see the first half of the month being pretty fun If we see a February with a rather robust block I would not be surprised to see that carry deeper into March. I'd have to look back since I'm doing this from memory right now, but I feel like some of our biggest late season blocks seem to carry over into the spring months and that's when we get our brutal springs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2023 Author Share Posted November 2, 2023 5 hours ago, weatherwiz said: If we see a February with a rather robust block I would not be surprised to see that carry deeper into March. I'd have to look back since I'm doing this from memory right now, but I feel like some of our biggest late season blocks seem to carry over into the spring months and that's when we get our brutal springs. I suspect not, this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I suspect not, this year. I hope not. I'm tired of shitty springs and it not getting hot until July and we get like 7 weeks of summer. After March 15 I'm ready for 70's and by April 15 give me 80's, May give me 90's and by June pound me with 100's. Oh and high humidity by April too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I hope not. I'm tired of shitty springs and it not getting hot until July and we get like 7 weeks of summer. After March 15 I'm ready for 70's and by April 15 give me 80's, May give me 90's and by June pound me with 100's. Oh and high humidity by April too. not happening, James. You need to move several hundred miles south if that is your expectation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 3 hours ago, SJonesWX said: not happening, James. You need to move several hundred miles south if that is your expectation. More like 7-8 hundred miles south for that to even be a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: Grain of salt any winter forecast before November even if they showed cold and snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 On 11/2/2023 at 2:22 PM, SJonesWX said: not happening, James. You need to move several hundred miles south if that is your expectation. If I ever leave VT when I retire it will be from March 15th through at least May 15th. I want to miss mud season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 Yeah, I suspect a warmer March and probably April, just based on the trends of the last few years. I wonder if we'll transition into La Nina going into April.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 Why does Eric never mention that the forcing is still much further west than you'd expect for an east based El Nino??? It's official! Eric Webb has canceled winter, so we a might as well spare ourselves, lol. I hope it's a freakish cold/snow fest, not simply because I love it, but simply to hold it over Webb, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Grain of salt any winter forecast before November even if they showed cold and snow Enjoy the warmth, it’s the only warmth you’ve got 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Latest EC, good for parts of the USA and Europe. Negative NAO. Jan-Feb-Ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 23 hours ago, forkyfork said: Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Has Webb actually made a call? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Brutal i’ll take this 10/10 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Has Webb actually made a call? no, that’s the magic of it. that way he can say he was right if it does end up snowy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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