2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully at least one cranberry bog event for Ray.

[weatherwiz]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...I mean I'm definitely leery of the strength of the El Nino causing us problems in the snow department, but I am not hugging Super Nino climo at this point for 3 main reasons:

1. We're not even sure this will qualify as a Super Nino (looking increasingly like it might fall short)

2. Our sample in Super Ninos is very small

3. Even if it does technically qualify as a Super Nino, will the warming in the western PAC regions affect it's behavior. (e.g. MEI looks much weaker than a typical Super Nino, and this suggests that the atmosphere may not behave like a typical Super event)

 

The key will be monitoring the strength of the Aleutian low and it's placement....in the typical blowtorch Super Ninos, the Aleutian low set up more in the GOA (Gulf of Alaska) rather than further west south of the Aleutians and it was much bigger/stronger than other El Nino events. Becuase of this, you just see this firehose of Pacific air slamming into the CONUS and not allowing much cross-polar flow or even domestic cold from AK/NW Canada to become the dominant source of our airmasses.

 

100% agreed with those points. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

And I'll add that "Soft -PNA" periods could still be very productive for snow if we're getting a favorable arctic. What I mean by "Soft" is that it's not a ridiculous longwave trough swinging down into Baja Cali dusting the Hollywood sign with snow. Usually just some weakness in the western ridge or a shallow trough over the PAC NW....something we've seen a bunch of times before during cold/snowy periods as long as the arctic was cooperating.

I'd expect plenty of troughs to swing through the southwest this winter, but probably more due to split flow (with STJ going strong) and not because the polar jet stream was making a surgical strike from Barrow, AK to Palm Springs.

to add to your point, the preloading pattern for NYC's largest storms (which include big dogs for SNE like PDII and 1996) does have a -PNA before the storm occurs... this slight -PNA likely allows a large wave to sneak in under the ridging

this composite is mainly split flow interacting with an anomalous west-based -NAO... this winter should produce in the split flow department, and seasonals are screaming for some kind of -NAO late in the year

[George001]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Like Ray I feel good about this winter's prospects. Anyone discounting winter just because of ENSO strength is doing themselves an injustice. I think some just automatically mean a warm winter when they hear strong EL Nino because some of the more recent episodes. But I think this EL Nino will rival some of the earlier EL Nino's.

The El Niño strength plays a role in why I am pessimistic about this winter, but it isn’t the only reason. The El Niño is more east based, the PDO is extremely negative (historically -PDO El Niño winters are bad news for those looking for a cold and snowy winter in the east), and the Siberian snowcover is well below average. 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

The El Niño strength plays a role in why I am pessimistic about this winter, but it isn’t the only reason. The El Niño is more east based, the PDO is extremely negative (historically -PDO El Niño winters are bad news for those looking for a cold and snowy winter in the east), and the Siberian snowcover is well below average. 

The numerous composites I've posted which break down each event individually state otherwise. There are weak events which were cold, warm, decent snow, little snow. There were moderate events which were cold, warm, decent snow, little snow. There were strong events which were warm, cold, snow, and little snow. Majority of EL Nino's tend to be east-based since they develop east and build west. 

-PDO/EL Nino winter's include

1911-1912 (cold east) (moderate EL nino)

1919-1920 (warm east) (weak EL nino)

1951-1952 (near-avg) (moderate EL Nino)

1953-1954 (slightly above-average NE) (weak EL Nino)

1965-1966 (cold east) (super-strong EL Nino)

1968-1969 (cold east) (moderate EL Nino)

1972-1973 (warm east) (super-strong EL Nino)

1994-1995 (slightly above-avg) (moderate EL Nino)

Siberian snow cover is the most overrated thing ever.

[weatherwiz]

Basing a seasonal forecast on just the strength of an ENSO event alone is so 1990's and basing just off structure is so 2000's. There are a million things to analyze, assess, and consider. It's important to understand the role each phenomena plays on the atmospheric circulation. 

Here is the typical 500mb pattern for all EL Nino's. Clearly, you can see when averaging all EL Nino's, there is a tendency for a deeper Aleutian Low with ridging within the Arctic domain into Canada, with a trough signal across the southeastern United States. 

Now from many of the composites posted in the "Let's talk ENSO' thread, it's evidentially clear there is a wide range in pattern circulations during EL Nino episodes. What then becomes important is understanding how things like QBO, PNA, PDO, EPO, tropical forcing, all contribute to shape and disrupt the "mean". While EL Nino's tend to yield +PNA (as shown above), it's important to understand there could be forcing's which mute this PNA signal. 

I should retract a bit because strength/structure do play a role...I didn't mean to dispute that but disputing the notion of being pessimistic just because strength.  

[ORH_wxman]

52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

to add to your point, the preloading pattern for NYC's largest storms (which include big dogs for SNE like PDII and 1996) does have a -PNA before the storm occurs... this slight -PNA likely allows a large wave to sneak in under the ridging

this composite is mainly split flow interacting with an anomalous west-based -NAO... this winter should produce in the split flow department, and seasonals are screaming for some kind of -NAO late in the year

 

Yeah I've often had a hard time going against the PTSD tide of -PNAs in this forum....really since I've been on the forum. Every time I think people will stop being so scared of them (take the 2007-08 through 2010-11 winters for example.....or 2016-17, 2017-18), we then get a horrific one that sends everyone back to their priors about -PNAs.

But I think most of it comes from a caricature of what a -PNA is....when people think of a -PNA, they mostly envision that longwave trough in December 2022 that dug so far deep that it turned the Rose Bowl into a winter wonderland while screwing us out of an otherwise decent chance for something ourselves.

Further south it's fair to be more afraid of them, but it's mostly silly in New England. Obviously we don't want anything too extreme like the example above, but we can live with -PNA patterns....our correlation to temps on the PNA is actually pretty weak here.

 

Now all else equal, would I prefer a +PNA? Yeah probably....but it's not near the top of my list.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I've often had a hard time going against the PTSD tide of -PNAs in this forum....really since I've been on the forum. Every time I think people will stop being so scared of them (take the 2007-08 through 2010-11 winters for example.....or 2016-17, 2017-18), we then get a horrific one that sends everyone back to their priors about -PNAs.

But I think most of it comes from a caricature of what a -PNA is....when people think of a -PNA, they mostly envision that longwave trough in December 2022 that dug so far deep that it turned the Rose Bowl into a winter wonderland while screwing us out of an otherwise decent chance for something ourselves.

Further south it's fair to be more afraid of them, but it's mostly silly in New England. Obviously we don't want anything too extreme like the example above, but we can live with -PNA patterns....our correlation to temps on the PNA is actually pretty weak here.

 

Now all else equal, would I prefer a +PNA? Yeah probably....but it's not near the top of my list.

Judging from an assessment of height anomalies within the PNA region for many years in the database, I would argue that the PNA correlation with us is much stronger with the structure of the PNA field and where the center of the (strengthened or weakened) low is positioned then it is with state of the PNA. 

[brooklynwx99]

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Basing a seasonal forecast on just the strength of an ENSO event alone is so 1990's and basing just off structure is so 2000's. There are a million things to analyze, assess, and consider. It's important to understand the role each phenomena plays on the atmospheric circulation. 

Here is the typical 500mb pattern for all EL Nino's. Clearly, you can see when averaging all EL Nino's, there is a tendency for a deeper Aleutian Low with ridging within the Arctic domain into Canada, with a trough signal across the southeastern United States. 

Now from many of the composites posted in the "Let's talk ENSO' thread, it's evidentially clear there is a wide range in pattern circulations during EL Nino episodes. What then becomes important is understanding how things like QBO, PNA, PDO, EPO, tropical forcing, all contribute to shape and disrupt the "mean". While EL Nino's tend to yield +PNA (as shown above), it's important to understand there could be forcing's which mute this PNA signal. 

I should retract a bit because strength/structure do play a role...I didn't mean to dispute that but disputing the notion of being pessimistic just because strength.  

the way that the tropical forcing has setup is unusual and is more representative of years like 2009/2002 rather than the canonical super Ninos of 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015. it is biased far to the west, which is likely due to La Nina lag and a warm WPAC. 2009 is pretty uncanny

combine this with a MEI that is mimicking weak-moderate events and it's not that crazy to see this have spells where this does look like a Modoki event at times even though the SST presentation is more EP-like

[brooklynwx99]

@weatherwiz then compare to the super Nino years... totally different unlike 2002/09, which are actually good matches. 1972 is probably the closest with how it looks over the Americas, but the others have lots of rising motion and a center that's too far east

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I've often had a hard time going against the PTSD tide of -PNAs in this forum....really since I've been on the forum. Every time I think people will stop being so scared of them (take the 2007-08 through 2010-11 winters for example.....or 2016-17, 2017-18), we then get a horrific one that sends everyone back to their priors about -PNAs.

But I think most of it comes from a caricature of what a -PNA is....when people think of a -PNA, they mostly envision that longwave trough in December 2022 that dug so far deep that it turned the Rose Bowl into a winter wonderland while screwing us out of an otherwise decent chance for something ourselves.

Further south it's fair to be more afraid of them, but it's mostly silly in New England. Obviously we don't want anything too extreme like the example above, but we can live with -PNA patterns....our correlation to temps on the PNA is actually pretty weak here.

 

Now all else equal, would I prefer a +PNA? Yeah probably....but it's not near the top of my list.

with the dizzying array of abbreviations we toss around at one another PNA … to CAG … to NAM … WPO EPO NAO AMO PDO MEI IDO … you threw a PTSD out there and it struck me!

LOL

because it was causing post traumatic stress disorder when I couldn’t find the ATM teleconnector ..,

[weatherwiz]

Great stuff. This is what I had come up with for 500mb anomalies for EL Nino years in which tropical forcing was focused just west of the dateline. You'll notice I don't have 2002/2009 in this list, I had those years classified as Tropical forcing centered around the dateline, however, 2002/2009 absolutely would fit the mold of tropical forcing west of dateline.

I noticed it could be a little tricky using OLR vs. SVP for determining tropical forcing. I used OLR because database for SVP does not go back prior to like 1948.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@weatherwiz then compare to the super Nino years... totally different unlike 2002/09, which are actually good matches. 1972 is probably the closest with how it looks over the Americas, but the others have lots of rising motion and a center that's too far east

This place saves me so much work lol

Game face on as of today....started writing, so I will be more scarce the next couple of weeks.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This place saves me so much work lol

Game face on as of today....started writing, so I will be more scarce the next couple of weeks.

I spent all of last weekend writing up the ENSO aspect of my outlook...discussing the historical context of EL Nino events. Can't really type up much during the week, but can at least work on composites and other stuff. I am super hoping to finish up my thoughts/outlook this weekend b/c the next few weekends I'll be busy and looks like weather across the country starts getting a bit busy the next few weeks. 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This place saves me so much work lol

Game face on as of today....started writing, so I will be more scarce the next couple of weeks.

i've kind of given up on trying to explain my thought process to those that are just dead set on looking at raw SSTs and making sweeping generalizations. at this point I think the writing is on the wall that this will be different. no point in arguing at this juncture

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I spent all of last weekend writing up the ENSO aspect of my outlook...discussing the historical context of EL Nino events. Can't really type up much during the week, but can at least work on composites and other stuff. I am super hoping to finish up my thoughts/outlook this weekend b/c the next few weekends I'll be busy and looks like weather across the country starts getting a bit busy the next few weeks. 

Doing that now....its very tedious and long....I refer to an addendum post from a few years ago to explain the fundamentals because hardly anyone reads it as it is its so long.

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i've kind of given up on trying to explain my thought process to those that are just dead set on looking at raw SSTs and making sweeping generalizations. at this point I think the writing is on the wall that this will be different. no point in arguing at this juncture

That is where I am at.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i've kind of given up on trying to explain my thought process to those that are just dead set on looking at raw SSTs and making sweeping generalizations. at this point I think the writing is on the wall that this will be different. no point in arguing at this juncture

It will also be interesting to see how the pattern actually sets up versus the sensible wx results....95-99% of the population will only care about the sensible wx results, but I'll definitely be interested in how we got there.

For example, what if we torch this winter but it's because of a La Nina-ish -PNA pattern in tandem with a +AO/NAO (think 2011-12).....a lot of the Super Nino fetishists will start screaming "seeee!!!11!! told ya it would be a torch!!11!" but the irony would be that it wasn't for remotely the reasons they were expecting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It will also be interesting to see how the pattern actually sets up versus the sensible wx results....95-99% of the population will only care about the sensible wx results, but I'll definitely be interested in how we got there.

For example, what if we torch this winter but it's because of a La Nina-ish -PNA pattern in tandem with a +AO/NAO (think 2011-12).....a lot of the Super Nino fetishists will start screaming "seeee!!!11!! told ya it would be a torch!!11!" but the irony would be that it wasn't for remotely the reasons they were expecting.

We had a little bit of that last year given the blocking episodes we had....people calling for a +AO/NAO were spiking footballs like a Monday night Cowboys opponent.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We had a little bit of that last year given the blocking episodes we had....people calling for a +AO/NAO were spiking footballs like a Monday night Cowboys opponent.

Last year was really strange with how it manifested itself. 

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

with the dizzying array of abbreviations we toss around at one another PNA … to CAG … to NAM … WPO EPO NAO AMO PDO MEI IDO … you threw a PTSD out there and it struck me!

LOL

because it was causing post traumatic stress disorder when I couldn’t find the ATM teleconnector ..,

Don’t forget RONI. That’s a new one for me. And not the topping on your pizza.

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doing that now....its very tedious and long....I refer to an addendum post from a few years ago to explain the fundamentals because hardly anyone reads it as it is its so long.

That is where I am at.

Mine is going to be super long as well...my whole discussion on the historical context of EL Nino's is massive. 

While I understand the notion that people don't like to sit and read through long stuff (especially nowadays where our attention spans are crap b/c of cell phones) I like making long posts because

1. It helps me in my understanding 

2. It lessens the likelihood of anyone questioning the validity of my work and that I just didn't "steal" thoughts 

3. I hope it helps teach others who want to learn

4. I also hope it elicits a response from someone if I happen to state something incorrectly 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Mine is going to be super long as well...my whole discussion on the historical context of EL Nino's is massive. 

While I understand the notion that people don't like to sit and read through long stuff (especially nowadays where our attention spans are crap b/c of cell phones) I like making long posts because

1. It helps me in my understanding 

2. It lessens the likelihood of anyone questioning the validity of my work and that I just didn't "steal" thoughts 

3. I hope it helps teach others who want to learn

4. I also hope it elicits a response from someone if I happen to state something incorrectly 

In my experience, it doesn't prevent it.

But I suggest doing what I did....write the "nuts and bolts" stuff on a separate post and reference it with a hyper link.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Last year was really strange with how it manifested itself. 

if we get similar blocking in a moderate-strong Nino it's going to produce. no more permanent SE ridge trying to wreck everything

[40/70 Benchmark]

If someone is insecure enough to think that you copied their work only to distribute it free of charge, then that is their issue. I haver never, nor have I ever attempted to make a dime from my forecasting efforts...to me, its like asking someone to pay me to exercise.

[stadiumwave]

 

[WinterWolf]

Is it just me, but that reads “latest forecast suggests a winter Modoki index”, then it says “neither strongly east based, NOR Modoki like.”     ??? Huh? 
 

So which is it? The above contradicts itself.  Hard to figure out what it’s trying to convey? 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Is it just me, but that reads “latest forecast suggests a winter Modoki index”, then it says “neither strongly east based, NOR Modoki like.”     ??? Huh? 
 

So which is it? The above contradicts itself.  Hard to figure out what it’s trying to convey? 

The Modoki index just tells you how west or east based the ENSO event is....so they are calling for a Modoki index of +0.4 which is a somewhat neutral number....basically basin-wide.

[SnowGoose69]

17 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we get similar blocking in a moderate-strong Nino it's going to produce. no more permanent SE ridge trying to wreck everything

 

You'd think but look at the 06Z GEFS at about 130-190, that is more or less exactly what we saw happen last winter.  You'd think a SER of that degree should never happen with that sort of ridging by BC...of course its only October but that is that funky H5 pattern we've seen a lot recently

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Modoki index just tells you how west or east based the ENSO event is....so they are calling for a Modoki index of +0.4 which is a somewhat neutral number....basically basin-wide.

Thanks for the explanation….cuz there’s was a lil difficult to understand.  

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

You'd think but look at the 06Z GEFS at about 130-190, that is more or less exactly what we saw happen last winter.  You'd think a SER of that degree should never happen with that sort of ridging by BC...of course its only October but that is that funky H5 pattern we've seen a lot recently

There's a vortex over the Davis Strait though....that's the opposite of the December blocking episode last year. There's also a weak Aleutian low in the N PAC....opposite of the ridge last year. Longer wavelengths in winter prob is a lot colder look