2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[weatherwiz]

27 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The potential strength of El Nino can certainly trainwreck the entire winter of 23-24.  Anyone who says otherwise is doing the weather equivalent of" whistling pass the graveyard"

How so? 

Here are temperature anomalies for strong and super strong events. Three things are noted

1. Strong/super strong events can still produce below-average temperatures within the United States and especially across the East

2. More recent stronger episodes have been on the warmer side 

3. super-strong certainly tends to favor warmer, but the 1965-1966 winter was far from warmer. The sample size with super EL Nino's is also super small so not much to work off. 

 

[stadiumwave]

If you want to worry, this is your worry:

 

[WinterWolf]

As I said yesterday, or the day before…there will always be a worry. Can’t get too hung up on the worries, or the positives, in any one upcoming winter season imo.  There can always be something to offset anything positive, or negative for that matter. 
 

Im ready to roll the dice on this upcoming winter…I got a very high chance of doing much better than last year(won’t take much lol).  So it’s a good feeling imo. 

[CoastalWx]

What's the correlation with strong easterly 850mb anomalies from 45E-90E and Nino?

[stadiumwave]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What's the correlation with strong easterly 850mb anomalies from 45E-90E and Nino?

 

It's the combo of that & +IOD. 

Now, good news is +IOD is forecasted to weaken by most guidance. So, we'll just have to wait & see. Weather is never about just one thing. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, stadiumwave said:

 

It's the combo of that & +IOD. 

Now, good news is +IOD is forecasted to weaken by most guidance. So, we'll just have to wait & see. Weather is never about just one thing. 

Would think +IOD helps MJO 1-2 which is typically good for us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

If you want to worry, this is your worry:

 

Its only a concern if you are looking for a cold winter....it makes prolonged and severe blocking less likely, which is happening due to CC, anyway.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The potential strength of El Nino can certainly trainwreck the entire winter of 23-24.  Anyone who says otherwise is doing the weather equivalent of" whistling pass the graveyard"

Have you ventured past these graveyards?

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

its not as strong as it looks, just as the la nina last year was stronger than it looked.

You want to tell me it won't be cold or a great retention season...agreed. But I don't see anything at all that suggests a train wreck.

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Have you ventured past these graveyards?

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

its not as strong as it looks, just as the la nina last year was stronger than it looked.

You want to tell me it won't be cold or a great retention season...agreed. But I don't see anything at all that suggests a train wreck.

I think that people forget that those indices were made in the context in a world changing from CC... you would think that people would welcome them with open arms considering all the overattribution we're seeing, but no. it's odd

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its funny how we joke about the snowfall dependence as a mental illness, but I would honestly be more compelled to clinically assess those who feel the need to incessantly fend off potential disappointment with the expectation of a negative outcome. That to me is indicative of the most severe dependency of all.

No coincidence that he saw fit to weenie my post above....more often than not, that type of reaction is another defense mechanism born of a reluctance to engage in any form of critical self-evaluation due to suspicion that it would yield undesirable results.

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think that people forget that those indices were made in the context in a world changing from CC... you would think that people would welcome them with open arms considering all the overattribution we're seeing, but no. it's odd

 

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No coincidence that he saw fit to weenie my post above....more often than not, that type of reaction is another defense mechanism born of a reluctance to engage in any form of critical self-evaluation due to suspicion that it would yield undesirable results.

 

I mean I don't expect this winter to be cold by any means. but i DO expect this winter to have a KU or two for somewhere on the EC. NYC south is favored, but there have been Ninos where you guys also got the big dog... Feb 1983/2003 come to mind immediately

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I mean I don't expect this winter to be cold by any means. but i DO expect this winter to have a KU or two for somewhere on the EC. NYC south is favored, but there have been Ninos where you guys also got the big dog... Feb 1983/2003 come to mind immediately

Agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed.

1986 is another year we were in on it.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not sure why I keep thinking this other than I feel like this setup is due.....but I feel a December/January interior vibe. At some point in January into early March areas further S and E get in on it. Just a gut feeling/WAG. 

Doesn't mean coastal areas are locked out of it...but relative to the coast...interior gets off to a start first. More so than normal.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not sure why I keep thinking this other than I feel like this setup is due.....but I feel a December/January interior vibe. At some point in January into early March areas further S and E get in on it. Just a gut feeling/WAG. 

Doesn't mean coastal areas are locked out of it...but relative to the coast...interior gets off to a start first. More so than normal.

Good post. Agreed.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not sure why I keep thinking this other than I feel like this setup is due.....but I feel a December/January interior vibe. At some point in January into early March areas further S and E get in on it. Just a gut feeling/WAG. 

Doesn't mean coastal areas are locked out of it...but relative to the coast...interior gets off to a start first. More so than normal.

Yea, same.,,,January 1987 and Dec/Jan 2002-2003 were like that.

[WinterWolf]

55 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think that people forget that those indices were made in the context in a world changing from CC... you would think that people would welcome them with open arms considering all the overattribution we're seeing, but no. it's odd

Cuz those types are drones..period. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks to me like more of the NE screw jobs were -IOD...battle bewteen that and -PDO. Sometimes in a situation like that, I just go with  my gut and a what I feel we are "due" for.

[stadiumwave]

JAMSTEC updated...

2m Temps...all members mean

Precip

 

JAMSTEC does not produce a 500mb map. 

Also it uses 108 ensemble members that come from 3 groups. One of those 3 groups is really cold but is offset by one that is warm. One was unavailable.

Here's the group of members that were really cold, just for giggles:

[40/70 Benchmark]

That to me screams interior and elevation.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That to me screams interior and elevation.

It's kind of a '57-'58-esque temp pattern...and that was a big interior winter. Coast did ok too, but the real goods were interior.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's kind of a '57-'58-esque temp pattern...and that was a big interior winter. Coast did ok too, but the real goods were interior.

 

Yea, I meant to mention that with 87 and 2002-2003...funny because all 3 of those interior analogs were +PDO, which I don't expect....maybe another hint that we will have decent PNA periods, despite the PDO.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I meant to mention that with 87 and 2002-2003...funny because all 3 of those interior analogs were +PDO, which I don't expect....maybe another hint that we will have decent PNA periods, despite the PDO.

I'd be shocked if we don't have many solid +PNA periods. I don't expect a standing wave +PNA ridge like we had for 8+ weeks in late Jan-Mar 2015, but this El Nino is too strong not to force some decent Aleutian Low/+PNA periods. Whether they are fruitful will probably come down to how hostile the arctic is or not....if we get a shit arctic (esp near the EPO region), then it's probably just another flavor of dsogshit....but a half-decent arctic would probably produce some real fun periods.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be shocked if we don't have many solid +PNA periods. I don't expect a standing wave +PNA ridge like we had for 8+ weeks in late Jan-Mar 2015, but this El Nino is too strong not to force some decent Aleutian Low/+PNA periods. Whether they are fruitful will probably come down to how hostile the arctic is or not....if we get a shit arctic (esp near the EPO region), then it's probably just another flavor of dsogshit....but a half-decent arctic would probably produce some real fun periods.

I am the most confident I have been since 2014 in my overall conceptualization of this season....exact snowfall totals aside.

[ORH_wxman]

And I'll add that "Soft -PNA" periods could still be very productive for snow if we're getting a favorable arctic. What I mean by "Soft" is that it's not a ridiculous longwave trough swinging down into Baja Cali dusting the Hollywood sign with snow. Usually just some weakness in the western ridge or a shallow trough over the PAC NW....something we've seen a bunch of times before during cold/snowy periods as long as the arctic was cooperating.

I'd expect plenty of troughs to swing through the southwest this winter, but probably more due to split flow (with STJ going strong) and not because the polar jet stream was making a surgical strike from Barrow, AK to Palm Springs.

[weatherwiz]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's kind of a '57-'58-esque temp pattern...and that was a big interior winter. Coast did ok too, but the real goods were interior.

 

Also kind of reminds me of 1965-1966. Not sure what that produced in terms of snow but it was a drier-than-average winter across the eastern third of the country. That was also a strong/super strong EL Nino w/-PDO

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Also kind of reminds me of 1965-1966. Not sure what that produced in terms of snow but it was a drier-than-average winter across the eastern third of the country. That was also a strong/super strong EL Nino w/-PDO

'65-'66 was much colder in the plains and west than '57-'58 was, but yeah, it's not a terrible match east of the MS River. Above average from Great Lakes to New England but below average from about DC southward.

It was a decent snow winter for SNE on the whole, but not a great one. Slightly above average for most places here....maybe more like near average for PVD/far southeast areas.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

'65-'66 was much colder in the plains and west than '57-'58 was, but yeah, it's not a terrible match east of the MS River. Above average from Great Lakes to New England but below average from about DC southward.

It was a decent snow winter for SNE on the whole, but not a great one. Slightly above average for most places here....maybe more like near average for PVD/far southeast areas.

Like Ray I feel good about this winter's prospects. Anyone discounting winter just because of ENSO strength is doing themselves an injustice. I think some just automatically mean a warm winter when they hear strong EL Nino because some of the more recent episodes. But I think this EL Nino will rival some of the earlier EL Nino's.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Like Ray I feel good about this winter's prospects. Anyone discounting winter just because of ENSO strength is doing themselves an injustice. I think some just automatically mean a warm winter when they hear strong EL Nino because some of the more recent episodes. But I think this EL Nino will rival some of the earlier EL Nino's.

Yeah...I mean I'm definitely leery of the strength of the El Nino causing us problems in the snow department, but I am not hugging Super Nino climo at this point for 3 main reasons:

1. We're not even sure this will qualify as a Super Nino (looking increasingly like it might fall short)

2. Our sample in Super Ninos is very small

3. Even if it does technically qualify as a Super Nino, will the warming in the western PAC regions affect it's behavior. (e.g. MEI looks much weaker than a typical Super Nino, and this suggests that the atmosphere may not behave like a typical Super event)

 

The key will be monitoring the strength of the Aleutian low and it's placement....in the typical blowtorch Super Ninos, the Aleutian low set up more in the GOA (Gulf of Alaska) rather than further west south of the Aleutians and it was much bigger/stronger than other El Nino events. Becuase of this, you just see this firehose of Pacific air slamming into the CONUS and not allowing much cross-polar flow or even domestic cold from AK/NW Canada to become the dominant source of our airmasses.

 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully at least one cranberry bog event for Ray.