WinterWolf Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm reading through your solar/QBO section now and I'm surprised nobody called me out on my post yesterday. I incorrectly stated that descending easterly QBO phase does not favor blocking, when blocking potential increases during the descending easterly phase. I saw your post and went back to my QBO notes to confirm. In a notebook I had some notes on QBO/Arctic domain and had strong in parentheses...but I was thinking I meant strong blocking when I meant strong PV...so I had it backwards in my post yesterday I’ll be honest…I was going to, but thought I had it wrong!? With you being the Pro MET and all, I was like oh, I must have understood it wrong when I read it when it was posted in here(by maybe Brooklyn99?) a couple months back lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll be honest…I was going to, but thought I had it wrong!? With you being the Pro MET and all, I was like oh, I must have understood it wrong when I read it when it was posted in here(by maybe Brooklyn99?) a couple months back lol. too many notes going on and too much stuff going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: too many notes going on and too much stuff going on I hear ya lol…all good Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I hear ya lol…all good Wiz. I'm just glad I didn't type up the QBO portion of my outlook yet...I'd be fuming right now with all that wasted work. I'd probably be going home tonight and cuddling a 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 19 hours ago, stadiumwave said: I don't understand. If you look at the 7 day sea surface temperature anomaly on TT there doesn't seem to be any overwhelming warm trend that isn't balanced in some way but colder changing areas. Also, aren't warmer waters a result of decreasing zonal wind anomalies since they cause less upwelling? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm just glad I didn't type up the QBO portion of my outlook yet...I'd be fuming right now with all that wasted work. I'd probably be going home tonight and cuddling a 40 So easy to get all these 3 letter abbreviations mixed up, along with all their positive and negative siblings….and how they all affect outcomes…lots to(too much sometimes) remember. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, kazimirkai said: This site has access to 15 day changes, if you're interested. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 https://x.com/nynjpaweather/status/1714333625104163221?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/nynjpaweather/status/1714333625104163221?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg He went 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 @40/70 Benchmark I was reading your post and looking at the 2006-2007 winter and noticed you classified it as WQBO while in my notes I put as a descending easterly so I went to look at the QBO data. I am guessing QBO phase in the 30mb - 50mb level is what is most important? This is why I wrote down descending easterly but clearly 30-50mb level was positive during that time with easterly above it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: He went 9/10 Hard pass 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 17 hours ago, weatherwiz said: @40/70 Benchmark I was reading your post and looking at the 2006-2007 winter and noticed you classified it as WQBO while in my notes I put as a descending easterly so I went to look at the QBO data. I am guessing QBO phase in the 30mb - 50mb level is what is most important? This is why I wrote down descending easterly but clearly 30-50mb level was positive during that time with easterly above it. Yea, use 30-50mb. Paul, I feel like your largest issue is that you tend to drown yourself in data......I mean, you are attempting to forecast a four month period at several months lead...be exhaustive in the sense that you cover everything, but don't lose focus of the larger picture, which is really what is paramount. You need to set a scope and stick to it. Relegating myself to the 30 and 5-mb levels that CPC posts is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 9 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hard pass I'll take the hemispheric similarity and roll the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take the hemispheric similarity and roll the dice. We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take the hemispheric similarity and roll the dice. The strength of the El Niño matters a lot. I don’t agree that it is just bad luck that 2009-2010 sucked for snow in New England. Strong/super nino and strong -NAO is a congrats DC pattern, I would take a 2018-2019 repeat over that any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, use 30-50mb. Paul, I feel like your largest issue is that you tend to drown yourself in data......I mean, you are attempting to forecast a four month period at several months lead...be exhaustive in the sense that you cover everything, but don't lose focus of the larger picture, which is really what is paramount. You need to set a scope and stick to it. Relegating myself to the 30 and 5-mb levels that CPC posts is good enough for me. Yes, that is a huge issue of mine. I've been trying harder to set a scope and stick to it. I often find myself trying to get too cute when classification of things, needing to understand not everything is textbook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 1 hour ago, George001 said: The strength of the El Niño matters a lot. I don’t agree that it is just bad luck that 2009-2010 sucked for snow in New England. Strong/super nino and strong -NAO is a congrats DC pattern, I would take a 2018-2019 repeat over that any day. Your thought process is far too rigid and simplistic.... @brooklynwx99had the perfect word for it, which conveniently escapes me. Ideally, el nino would be weaker in order to ensure more N stream dominance vs the STJ, but it doesn't have to end as badly as 2010 did, either....we could have easily got hit with that sequence in February, and that season is remembered like 2002-2003, which was a similar el nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 I was among the worst that season, and the fact that I would take that set up and run should tell you something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 So how much snow am I getting? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Yeah the "bad luck" of 2009-2010 I don't think had anything to do with ENSO strength. In fact, that winter was more a borderline moderate/strong event. Technically it's strong because of the threshold values (both within the ONI and ENS-ONI) but it was right on the line. The anomalies within the Arctic domain were intense over a very large spatial area and also pretty far south. If anything, stratospheric processes and stratosphere-troposphere coupling had a much larger role than ENSO. In fact, if you just look at ENSO, the atmospheric circulation was fairly similar to what you would expect for an EL Nino (particularly moderate) it was just distorted a bit due to the Arctic domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah the "bad luck" of 2009-2010 I don't think had anything to do with ENSO strength. In fact, that winter was more a borderline moderate/strong event. Technically it's strong because of the threshold values (both within the ONI and ENS-ONI) but it was right on the line. The anomalies within the Arctic domain were intense over a very large spatial area and also pretty far south. If anything, stratospheric processes and stratosphere-troposphere coupling had a much larger role than ENSO. In fact, if you just look at ENSO, the atmospheric circulation was fairly similar to what you would expect for an EL Nino (particularly moderate) it was just distorted a bit due to the Arctic domain. I think they are connected.....modoki events are more favorable for blocking, and canonical less so.....I think basin wide events are more prone to extratropical forcing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So how much snow am I getting? 20-30” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 36 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 20-30” I’m thinking under 30” here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 45 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 20-30” 15-20 for Ray? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 09-10 was a 65" winter for me, and I was about 30 crow-flight miles from a 100" winter. So yes, I will gladly take that setup again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 Its funny how we joke about the snowfall dependence as a mental illness, but I would honestly be more compelled to clinically assess those who feel the need to incessantly fend off potential disappointment with the expectation of a negative outcome. That to me is indicative of the most severe dependency of all. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its funny how we joke about the snowfall dependence as a mental illness, but I would honestly be more compelled to clinically assess those who feel the need to incessantly fend off potential disappointment with the expectation of a negative outcome. That to me is indicative of the most severe dependency of all. Rhymes with Devin?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rhymes with Devin?? Social media is filled with them...then they project the ostracism that comes from a preoccupation with winter onto everyone else within the circle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rhymes with Devin?? Rhymes with Rooster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Your thought process is far too rigid and simplistic.... @brooklynwx99had the perfect word for it, which conveniently escapes me. Ideally, el nino would be weaker in order to ensure more N stream dominance vs the STJ, but it doesn't have to end as badly as 2010 did, either....we could have easily got hit with that sequence in February, and that season is remembered like 2002-2003, which was a similar el nino. i think "reductive" is the word you're looking for. been seeing a lot of that kind of thinking this year with ENSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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