stadiumwave Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 1 hour ago, stadiumwave said: Ideally, don't we want 3.4 region warmer than others? I mean for a better shot at a colder winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2023 Author Share Posted October 16, 2023 6 hours ago, weatherwiz said: It would depend. If we're in a suppressed pattern, if the jet is active, it probably wouldn't benefit us much. The look above looks like a fairly strong +PNA. I know +PNA comes across as good for us, but I think if the +PNA is moderate-to-strong that results in a suppressed jet stream. What I find highly intriguing though is some of the looks presented on these seasonal models are much more consistent with how the atmosphere responded to EL Nino's prior to the 1970's. Many of the EL Nino's since then have been much warmer. I am hoping to really finalize my thoughts on the upcoming winter by this weekend, but I am not so quick to jump on the warmer just because we may see a strong EL Nino. This EL Nino may be one of the more unique we've seen, especially given the state of the PDO (which is negative). unless the PDO signal weakens it's fairly negative and there are not many (stronger) EL Nino's with this PDO state. There also aren't many EL Nino's with a robust PNA signal like displayed above. One thing that does seem to be a fixture of EL Nino's is perhaps not necessarily blocking, but above-average heights within the Arctic domain through Greenland. If we did see the troughing across the southern US like what is advertised this would help with a stronger STJ and as long as the pattern isn't suppressed we could really cash in. I am a bit skeptical of how helpful the Arctic will be though. While it's always good to see above-average heights within the Arctic - Greenland domain, that doesn't always equate to blocking or mean there is blocking. The QBO phase and trend is one that reduces the potential for blocking as well. Anyways, at least in my mind, this is going to be one of the more unique EL Nino winters we've seen. Even when I finalize my thoughts I am not sure how confident I will feel because I can ultimately see this winter going in any direction. +PNA is fine....less likely to have gradient saturation issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Ideally, don't we want 3.4 region warmer than others? I mean for a better shot at a colder winter? Actually you DO want 3.4 the warmest. 3 & 3.4 is fine. You don't want 1 & 2 being the warmest. While SST anomalies often indicate where the greatest forcing is in the tropics it's not always a given. That's actually what has the greatest impact on the patterns. So, overall JMA would be pretty good news if that panned out, but there's always so many variables that nothing is ever a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: +PNA is fine....less likely to have gradient saturation issues. That’s my thought too…bring the + PNA, we don’t fear it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 I don't know what impact this might have this early other than weaken the strat PV but on the European model have a split at 50mb & on its way to splitting at 10mb by day 10: 50mb 10mb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1714227282653712740?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: +PNA is fine....less likely to have gradient saturation issues. Yeah I had it reversed... A strongly +PNA is pretty solid...it's when the +PNA is of a weaker signal issues can arise. But I'll be digging more into the PNA side of things this upcoming week and aiming to have my outlook complete this weekend. https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/08/pacific-north-america/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah I had it reversed... A strongly +PNA is pretty solid...it's when the +PNA is of a weaker signal issues can arise. But I'll be digging more into the PNA side of things this upcoming week and aiming to have my outlook complete this weekend. https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/08/pacific-north-america/ Probably have mine out the first week of November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1714227282653712740?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 Hard to believe that with a AS value of 0.6, this is the highest that the MEI has been since AM 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 This is what people are forgetting with this "super" el nino....the intense warming is occurring at the end of one of the most prominent cold phases in history....lts like lamenting a SW flow slamming into a 1052mb arctic high....you can't ignore the high. The atmosphere is holding onto the last vestiges of cold ENSO for dear life and that includes a very warm western PAC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is what people are forgetting with this "super" el nino....the intense warming is occurring at the end of one of the most prominent cold phases in history....lts like lamenting a SW flow slamming into a 1052mb arctic high....you can't ignore the high. We'll really have to see how coupled the atmosphere/ocean become. I have to believe we may see some significant changes within the PAC (outside of the ENSO region) because the current configuration with the growing and strengthening Nino is rather bizarre. Part of me really thinks that even if we do see a stronger EL Nino (but not quite super status) this EL Nino may act like EL Nino's of yore which could bode very well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We'll really have to see how coupled the atmosphere/ocean become. I have to believe we may see some significant changes within the PAC (outside of the ENSO region) because the current configuration with the growing and strengthening Nino is rather bizarre. Part of me really thinks that even if we do see a stronger EL Nino (but not quite super status) this EL Nino may act like EL Nino's of yore which could bode very well for us. Its going to act like a moderate event when all is said and done......there will be a STJ, but I also think the N stream will hang around, too. This is the most confident that I have been in an outlook since my first one in 2014. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its going to act like a moderate event when all is said and done......there will be a STJ, but I also think the N stream will hang around, too. I'm hoping to be able to spend some time looking back at zonal/meridional wind means and anomalies from previous Nino's. I have some composites made for those but I only did a breakdown based on tropical forcing. But now that I have seemed to shake off my confusion, having a +PNA would certainly help with keeping the northern stream around and potentially involved, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm hoping to be able to spend some time looking back at zonal/meridional wind means and anomalies from previous Nino's. I have some composites made for those but I only did a breakdown based on tropical forcing. But now that I have seemed to shake off my confusion, having a +PNA would certainly help with keeping the northern stream around and potentially involved, correct? Don't get too wrapped up in rigid conceptualizations of which index combos are favorable, etc....at the end of the day, you need to assess charts. +PNA in general is great, but it always depends on the configuration (precise placement of it), as well as what else is going on around the hemisphere concurrent with it. For instance, last January was a +PNA, but it was biased so far to the west that it mimicked an RNA by parking a trough on the west coast.....you also run the risk of PV interference when you a couple a +PNA with a deeply negative NAO, or in the case of last season, have RNA and west-baised PNA negating great blocks. Don't get married to any single correlation or relationship and always keep an open mind when assessing charts because mother nature is extremely innovative and constantly evolving. But if the goal is to avoid the gradient saturation that is increasingly plagued our large storm efforts in recent years, +PNA is what you want 9/10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 What I have learned in my 10 years of forecasting efforts/blogging is that there is no surer sign that you are truly lost than feeling as though you've figured it out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't get too wrapped up in rigid conceptualizations of which index combos are favorable, etc....at the end of the day, you need to assess charts. +PNA in general is great, but it always depends on the configuration (precise placement of it), as well as what else is going on around the hemisphere concurrently with it. For instance, last January was a +PNA, but it was biased so far to the west that it mimicked an RNA by parking a trough on the west coast.....you also run the risk of PV interference when you a couple a +PNA with a deeply negative NAO, or in the case of last season, have RNA and west-baised PNA negating great blocks. Don't get married to any single correlation or relationship and always keep an open mind when assessing charts because mother nature is extremely innovative and constantly evolving. But if the goal is to avoid the gradient saturation that is increasingly plagued our large storm efforts in recent years, +PNA is what you want 9/10 times. Correct, this I understand. This is why I've created all those GIFs and have my massive binder of print outs I always look at anomalies first and then a hard index value second. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Correct, this I understand. This is why I've created all those GIFs and have my massive binder of print outs I always look at anomalies first and then a hard index value second. I mean, don't get me wrong....as I am wading though literally hundreds of composites and index tables in the process of composing a 30 page outlook, I don't always assess the pattern...that is more for medium range storm prediction. In seasonal forecasting, go more by index assessment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, don't get me wrong....as I am wading though literally hundreds of composites and index tables in the process of composing a 30 page outlook, I don't always a assess the pattern...that is more for medium range storm predication. In seasonal forecasting I go more by index assessment. This is a route I'm trying to go as well. This is my first attempt at a seasonal outlook in quite sometime...probably since like 2014 and I like where I've come along since. I think I just used to look at the ONI, look for years in which values were similar, and those years were my analogs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is a route I'm trying to go as well. This is my first attempt at a seasonal outlook in quite sometime...probably since like 2014 and I like where I've come along since. I think I just used to look at the ONI, look for years in which values were similar, and those years were my analogs My largest area of growth over the past few years is not being too reliant on modoki characterization (modoki vs basin-wide, east based), while still incorporating it. I heavily factor in sensible weather matches of like ENSO state now, which is something I adopted from raindance. Its important to be both eclectic and exhaustive in your seasonal forecasting methodologies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My largest area of growth over the past few years is not being too reliant on modoki characterization (modoki vs basin-wide, east based), while still incorporating it. I heavily factor in sensible weather matches of like ENSO state now, which is something I adopted from raindance. Its important to be both eclectic and exhaustive in your seasonal forecasting methodologies. Yes, I agree with that. I remember too trying to focus a quite a bit on that characterization...in fact, that was my plan when I started really getting back into seasonal forecasting late last fall and I started with all my composites. But in doing so, I've found that the characterization alone isn't as important as some say it is...but you're absolutely right, it still needs to be incorporated. I at least found this to be true with EL Nino...not sure about La Nina but I'm going to begin La Nina composite stuff after finishing my outlook and work on it until winter gets crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yes, I agree with that. I remember too trying to focus a quite a bit on that characterization...in fact, that was my plan when I started really getting back into seasonal forecasting late last fall and I started with all my composites. But in doing so, I've found that the characterization alone isn't as important as some say it is...but you're absolutely right, it still needs to be incorporated. I at least found this to be true with EL Nino...not sure about La Nina but I'm going to begin La Nina composite stuff after finishing my outlook and work on it until winter gets crazy. Its very important for both...but its informative to analyze your modoki composites to gain insight into why there is variation within each composite. First of all, there is obviously more variance the weaker the event...secondly, factors such solar implications and other various influences, such as volcanic eruptions can play a role in modulating the polar domain that can supercede ENSO. NOTHING operates within a vacuum and there are ALWAYS competing forces at play...its incumbent upon the forecaster to resolve that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its very important for both...but its informative to analyze your modoki composites to gain insight on why there is variation within each composite. First of all, there is obviously more variance the weaker the event...secondly, factors such solar implications and other various factors, such as volcanic eruptions can play a role in modulating the polar domain that can supercede ENSO. Yeah this is something I definitely won't be incorporating into my outlook because I have zero knowledge on these and how they can influence the stratosphere-troposphere. I'll have a little section dedicated to "other factors that I am clueless on, but are important" to touch on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Yeah this is something I definitely won't be incorporating into my outlook because I have zero knowledge on these and how they can influence the stratosphere-troposphere. I'll have a little section dedicated to "other factors that I am clueless on, but are important" to touch on this. I read up on that stuff over the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 @weatherwizRead this. Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @weatherwizRead this. Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather This is incredibly well-done! First off, I have never even come across the EMI. So this is some great learning material for me. Secondly, I am super happy to see what you mentioned about challenging signals regarding tropical forcing during basin wide events b/c that is exactly what I had noticed too (after that screw up I had late in the summer in the thread I made). But I tried to break down tropical forcing into east of dateline, centered around dateline, and west of dateline and it was very difficult to obtain clear-definitive signals. I am going to thoroughly read through the sections on solar over the course of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is incredibly well-done! First off, I have never even come across the EMI. So this is some great learning material for me. Secondly, I am super happy to see what you mentioned about challenging signals regarding tropical forcing during basin wide events b/c that is exactly what I had noticed too (after that screw up I had late in the summer in the thread I made). But I tried to break down tropical forcing into east of dateline, centered around dateline, and west of dateline and it was very difficult to obtain clear-definitive signals. I am going to thoroughly read through the sections on solar over the course of the day. JAMSTEC is a wonderful resource of EMI info/data. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 I didn't say that right so I deleted it... What I mean was, with increased Ozone that traps heat from planetary wave decay at high altitudes and latitudes. This inject appears to be the source for so-called Sudden Stratospheric Warming events. However, there are just as many intra-seasonal time spans in recorded history/data, where the AO meandered negative(positive) without the advent of a SSW physical exertion. In other words, if other planetary mechanics are at work ... driving a -AO biased season, the inclusion of an SSW should inherently become less identifiable - ie., making no difference. What I think is a better study is whether remove the SSW years from those with higher than normal Ozone residence. Then, of those years ...determine if the AO was negative(positive) for positive vs negative 0zone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @weatherwizRead this. Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather I'm reading through your solar/QBO section now and I'm surprised nobody called me out on my post yesterday. I incorrectly stated that descending easterly QBO phase does not favor blocking, when blocking potential increases during the descending easterly phase. I saw your post and went back to my QBO notes to confirm. In a notebook I had some notes on QBO/Arctic domain and had strong in parentheses...but I was thinking I meant strong blocking when I meant strong PV...so I had it backwards in my post yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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