2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[Itryatgolf70]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Paul Roundy

He never informed me of that when we spoke two weeks ago. He said east to west niño most likely outcome 

[weatherwiz]

I've spent much of the weekend constructing my thoughts on the upcoming winter and really hammering into things and there is one thing I've noticed. There has been an absolutely glaring shift in atmospheric circulations between older EL Nino events and newer EL Nino events (say from like the 1970's or early 1980's onwards). 

Now it is interesting to note that it is possible data sources and data sets could be a big driver here. While there are ENSO categorizations dating back into the mid-to-late 1800's it's obviously important to understand there may be questions with the validity and accuracy of the data.  

I know Ray only focury900-onwards. The NCEP/NCAR R1 dataset contains data from 1948-Present and the 20th Century Reanalysis V3 dataset contains data from 1836-2015. So for the earlier ENSO years I used the CRV3 dataset (years 1900-1980) and NCEP/NCAR from 1981-Present.

anyways, check this out. Note: These are just weak EL Nino's. (some of the earlier ones were borderline moderate so I removed them and re-plotted, trying to see if it maybe would skew more towards later EL Nino years and no. Obviously the major thing here is a very weak (perhaps even reversed) Aleutian Low. Anyways though certainly could be other drivers (PDO state which I'm starting to dig into as well). 

 

 

[ineedsnow]

Hopefully we can pull off a normal season here.. last year was good but only because of the few good storms we had 

[stadiumwave]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Paul Roundy

 

Paul means historical in the sense of where we came from, a triple La Nina. He says the turn around from LA Nina to a strong El Nino of this magnitude in the same year is unheard since 1870's.

Paul does not expect an El Nino of the magnitude of 2015-16 but does expect ONI to top 2.0 for one period either NDJ or DJF. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Paul means historical in the sense of where we came from, a triple La Nina. He says the turn around from LA Nina to a strong El Nino of this magnitude in the same year is unheard since 1870's.

Paul does not expect an El Nino of the magnitude of 2015-16 but does expect ONI to top 2.0 for one period either NDJ or DJF. 

Regarding turnaround within the same year, what about 1965 and 1972? They’re comparable at this point in the year.

 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

[stadiumwave]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Regarding turnaround within the same year, what about 1965 and 1972? They’re comparable at this point in the year.

 

Neither of those years were after a triple La Nina. 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Neither of those years were after a triple La Nina. 

-True. How significant is it that the current sharp turnaround is occurring after a triple Niña vs after either a double or single Niña like 1972 and 1965?

-The closest I can find to a strong Nino immediately following a triple Niña is the 1911-2  Nino, which peaked high end moderate (+1.4 ONI) after a triple Nina per this:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-True. How significant is it that the current sharp turnaround is occurring after a triple Niña vs after either a double or single Niña like 1972 and 1965?

-The closest I can find to a strong Nino immediately following a triple Niña is the 1911-2  Nino, which peaked high end moderate (+1.4 ONI) after a triple Nina per this:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I'm not even sure if a quick turn around would have much of an influence. 

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I've spent much of the weekend constructing my thoughts on the upcoming winter and really hammering into things and there is one thing I've noticed. There has been an absolutely glaring shift in atmospheric circulations between older EL Nino events and newer EL Nino events (say from like the 1970's or early 1980's onwards). 

Now it is interesting to note that it is possible data sources and data sets could be a big driver here. While there are ENSO categorizations dating back into the mid-to-late 1800's it's obviously important to understand there may be questions with the validity and accuracy of the data.  

I know Ray only focury900-onwards. The NCEP/NCAR R1 dataset contains data from 1948-Present and the 20th Century Reanalysis V3 dataset contains data from 1836-2015. So for the earlier ENSO years I used the CRV3 dataset (years 1900-1980) and NCEP/NCAR from 1981-Present.

anyways, check this out. Note: These are just weak EL Nino's. (some of the earlier ones were borderline moderate so I removed them and re-plotted, trying to see if it maybe would skew more towards later EL Nino years and no. Obviously the major thing here is a very weak (perhaps even reversed) Aleutian Low. Anyways though certainly could be other drivers (PDO state which I'm starting to dig into as well). 

 

 

Something else I wanted to add to this. It's also extremely interesting the gap between weak EL Nino events. 

After the 1979-1980 weak EL Nino (which isn't even defined via the ENS-ONI) there was not a weak EL Nino until 2004-2005 (which also was not defined via the ENS-ONI). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Paul means historical in the sense of where we came from, a triple La Nina. He says the turn around from LA Nina to a strong El Nino of this magnitude in the same year is unheard since 1870's.

Paul does not expect an El Nino of the magnitude of 2015-16 but does expect ONI to top 2.0 for one period either NDJ or DJF. 

2.0+ peak ONI is historic.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2.0+ peak ONI is historic.

1982-83, 97-98, 2015-16 had 2.0+ ONI from August to February. He's not expecting that. 

[stadiumwave]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

-True. How significant is it that the current sharp turnaround is occurring after a triple Niña vs after either a double or single Niña like 1972 and 1965?

-The closest I can find to a strong Nino immediately following a triple Niña is the 1911-2  Nino, which peaked high end moderate (+1.4 ONI) after a triple Nina per this:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

1870's is the benchmark. Probably the strongest El Nino going back to 1850.

[stadiumwave]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

1982-83, 97-98, 2015-16 had 2.0+ ONI from August to February. He's not expecting that. 

I didn't say he was expecting that...but 4th all time el Nino is historic.

[Snowcrazed71]

I have to be honest, I'm hearing things about this El nino being strong or one of the top El Nino's. Yet I'm hearing other people saying it's a modern El nino and it's probably not going to get stronger than that. What gives. I feel like the ones who say it's at a moderate El nino and will probably stay around that level. Have given better detailing than the ones you say. Strong El nino to super El nino. I feel like that's coming from the media.

[weatherwiz]

I know the depth of the warm waters don't seem particularly deep, at least enough to make me feel like we are headed towards EL Nino. We'll have to see if we can maybe get some strong WWB's as well. After a rapid transition into EL Nino, however, the degree of warming has certainly leveled off and maybe even slightly decreased. 

[stadiumwave]

JMA updated & like UKMET...it's about as sweet of a 3 mnth mean as you'll see.

DJF

 

JMA gives a seasonal outlook, which is the winter months of DJF above but you can't get the individual months from it. But JMA alao gives a 3 month outlook every month, so this month its NDJ. So, I can get DEC & JAN individual months from the 3 mnth outlook.

DEC

 

JAN

 

Next month we'll be able to see FEB as well.

Take away is DEC looks decent in the plains & OV. JAN is a freaking winter fantasy map!!! I'm sure FEB is as well from looking at the DJF mean. 

Let me add the ENSO profile for anyone interested. Key note is region 1&2 continue to fall & most of the warmer waters are in regions 3 & 3.4. Pretty strong El Nino forecast.

 

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA updated & like UKMET...it's about as sweet of a 3 mnth mean as you'll see.

DJF

 

JMA gives a seasonal outlook, which is the winter months of DJF above but you can't get the individual months from it. But JMA alao gives a 3 month outlook every month, so this month its NDJ. So, I can get DEC & JAN individual months from the 3 mnth outlook.

DEC

 

JAN

 

Next month we'll be able to see FEB as well.

Take away is DEC looks decent in the plains & OV. JAN is a freaking winter fantasy map!!! I'm sure FEB is as well from looking at the DJF mean. 

Let me add the ENSO profile for anyone interested. Key note is region 1&2 continue to fall & most of the warmer waters are in regions 3 & 3.4. Pretty strong El Nino forecast.

 

 

Do you have the 2 meter temperature maps?

[stadiumwave]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Do you have the 2 meter temperature maps?

It does not offer 2m temps. It just shows the 850mb temps.

And to be honest, 2m temps are the lowest skill part of seasonal forecast models. I usually never post them even on models where they are available, unless that's all that is available. I'd rather see a 500mb mean, which usually paints the better picture. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

It does not offer 2m temps. It just shows the 850mb temps.

And to be honest, 2m temps are the lowest skill part of seasonal forecast models. I usually never post them even on forecasts that are available unless that's a that is available. I'd rather see a 500mb mean, which usually paints the better picture. 

Would you please post the 850 mb temps? What period is used for the climo base for the anomalies?

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA updated & like UKMET...it's about as sweet of a 3 mnth mean as you'll see.

DJF

 

JMA gives a seasonal outlook, which is the winter months of DJF above but you can't get the individual months from it. But JMA alao gives a 3 month outlook every month, so this month its NDJ. So, I can get DEC & JAN individual months from the 3 mnth outlook.

DEC

 

JAN

 

Next month we'll be able to see FEB as well.

Take away is DEC looks decent in the plains & OV. JAN is a freaking winter fantasy map!!! I'm sure FEB is as well from looking at the DJF mean. 

Let me add the ENSO profile for anyone interested. Key note is region 1&2 continue to fall & most of the warmer waters are in regions 3 & 3.4. Pretty strong El Nino forecast.

 

 

Can’t hate that look that’s for sure…wow, we take and embrace. 

[weatherwiz]

That December pattern is a pretty classic EL Nino look, especially with some of the more recent EL Nino's. That is a great evolution into January though, but my concern would be suppression and perhaps moreso, a rather inactive storm track. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Would you please post the 850 mb temps? What period is used for the climo base for the anomalies?

@GaWx

This JMA site hasn't updated yet, but it should any day. It has temp and precip anomalies. 

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

[WinterWolf]

54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That December pattern is a pretty classic EL Nino look, especially with some of the more recent EL Nino's. That is a great evolution into January though, but my concern would be suppression and perhaps moreso, a rather inactive storm track. 

They’re always gonna be a concern….but shouldn’t the STJ be pretty involved..making for active periods? 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

They’re always gonna be a concern….but shouldn’t the STJ be pretty involved..making for active periods? 

It would depend. If we're in a suppressed pattern, if the jet is active, it probably wouldn't benefit us much. The look above looks like a fairly strong +PNA. I know +PNA comes across as good for us, but I think if the +PNA is moderate-to-strong that results in a suppressed jet stream. 

What I find highly intriguing though is some of the looks presented on these seasonal models are much more consistent with how the atmosphere responded to EL Nino's prior to the 1970's. Many of the EL Nino's since then have been much warmer. 

I am hoping to really finalize my thoughts on the upcoming winter by this weekend, but I am not so quick to jump on the warmer just because we may see a strong EL Nino. This EL Nino may be one of the more unique we've seen, especially given the state of the PDO (which is negative). unless the PDO signal weakens it's fairly negative and there are not many (stronger) EL Nino's with this PDO state. There also aren't many EL Nino's with a robust PNA signal like displayed above. 

One thing that does seem to be a fixture of EL Nino's is perhaps not necessarily blocking, but above-average heights within the Arctic domain through Greenland. If we did see the troughing across the southern US like what is advertised this would help with a stronger STJ and as long as the pattern isn't suppressed we could really cash in. 

I am a bit skeptical of how helpful the Arctic will be though. While it's always good to see above-average heights within the Arctic - Greenland domain, that doesn't always equate to blocking or mean there is blocking. The QBO phase and trend is one that reduces the potential for blocking as well.

Anyways, at least in my mind, this is going to be one of the more unique EL Nino winters we've seen. Even when I finalize my thoughts I am not sure how confident I will feel because I can ultimately see this winter going in any direction. 

 

[UnitedWx]

On 10/14/2023 at 6:27 PM, ineedsnow said:

Hopefully we can pull off a normal season here.. last year was good but only because of the few good storms we had 

You did pretty well, while those just south suffered. I was on the ragged edge of slightly halfway decent in Westfield. A friend up in Otis had a great year

[stadiumwave]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Would you please post the 850 mb temps? What period is used for the climo base for the anomalies?

DJF

 

JAN

 

[Itryatgolf70]

27 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

DJF

 

JAN

 

I'm skeptical but we shall see. I think November outlooks will be telling, especially the European model. 

[KTBFFH1905]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

And no, it doesn't mean anything about winter lol.

Dang it! 

[stadiumwave]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

@GaWx

This JMA site hasn't updated yet, but it should any day. It has temp and precip anomalies. 

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Jamstec & JMA are not the same. 

JMA

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/

 

JAMSTEC

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html