SnoSki14 Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll have to look at it during the off season....I need to stop. I'm starting to ramp up before I want to lol I love how the best match is 1972-1973 aka the least snowiest season on record prior to this one for NYC. The snow gods hate us lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 10, 2023 Author Share Posted April 10, 2023 On 4/8/2023 at 6:26 AM, SnoSki14 said: I love how the best match is 1972-1973 aka the least snowiest season on record prior to this one for NYC. The snow gods hate us lol. Well, the good news is that a best match in April often doesn't ultimately prove very relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 10, 2023 Share Posted April 10, 2023 On 4/7/2023 at 10:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Paul, the main determinant in those winters you listed is blocking....my point above is that a basin wide ENSO event is not prohibitive to that. We have two avenues to avoiding yet another terd....flip the PDO and/or get blocking. 1972-1973 is one end of the spectrum with a basin wide el nino (two swings/two misses), and 1957-1958 is the other (two swings/two hits). The smart early money is that we hit on one and miss one. 1972-73 actually had average (Detroit) to above average (Flint) snowfall in SE MI. It was somewhat similar (a bit snowier) to this winter in that there were multiple snow events throughout the season, it just wasn't a good year for sustained winter/snowcover. 1957-58 was very dry with well below average snowfall, presumably blocking shot at everything south and east. There were some good cold shots though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Something has to give soon, whether its this year or not...but dating back to 1956, my worst 5 year stretch is 87-88 through 91-92, when I averaged 38.5"....this stretch from 18-19 through 22-23 I have averaged 45.1". But I have never had six consecutive seasons of well below average snowfall dating back to 1956....1992-1993 ended that drought with 97.3". On the front side of that stretch was 86-87 with 77.7"....I could envision something like that as the ceiling next year if its basinwide. But even if it isn't....the juggernaut east-based events have a tendency to deliver one heavy hitter.....I had 60.2" in 82-83. If we get one more terd out here, I would have to imagine 24-25 ends it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 I feel like its going to become in vogue to dismiss the NAO, but I think it will hold a lot of weight next year. There is no way that heights over the west will be as low as they were last season, so I'm pretty sure big blocks won't be so at risk of going to waste as they did last year...trick will be to get them again next season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like its going to become in vogue to dismiss the NAO, but I think it will hold a lot of weight next year. There is no way that heights over the west will be as low as they were last season, so I'm pretty sure big blocks won't be so at risk of going to waste as they did last year...trick will be to get them again next season. Yes, I agree with this. I guess this can be said true regardless, but one discriminator in warm EL Nino's versus colder EL Nino's is the state of the heights over the Arctic domain. Also, and this is a statement I won't hold with a significant amount of weight b/c I don't have a ton of support to back this up, but when we tend to get a -NAO with an EL Nino...we tend to get a -NAO which is more favorable for deeper cold (or trough) in our neck of the woods, increasing potential for coastal storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yes, I agree with this. I guess this can be said true regardless, but one discriminator in warm EL Nino's versus colder EL Nino's is the state of the heights over the Arctic domain. Also, and this is a statement I won't hold with a significant amount of weight b/c I don't have a ton of support to back this up, but when we tend to get a -NAO with an EL Nino...we tend to get a -NAO which is more favorable for deeper cold (or trough) in our neck of the woods, increasing potential for coastal storms Well, that is a no-brainer....there is a reason el nino offers higher end storm potential on average than la nina. 1) More of a STJ prescence. 2) What you were alluding has to do with Tip's compressed geopotential medium....ie heigher se heights. That is less likely to be an issue during an el nino, so we aren't as prone to that shearing influence when either an NAO block flexes during west coast troughing (see December 2021) or when we have lower heights over the northeast while there are higher heights over the se...obviously el nino favors lower heights down there. This will be illustrated when I do my el nino work next month. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 6, 2023 Author Share Posted June 6, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have completed my El Nino composites by both intensity and orientation....those will be out in a blog post within the week. I have determined intensity by mainly ONI, but not 100%....there is some consideration given to both time of peak and MEI....for instance, I consider 1987-1988 to be moderate for winter, even though it peaked as strong late in the summer. I also consider 2009-2010 as moderate, despite a 1.6 ONI peak narrowly qualifying it as strong. due to the weaker MEI (moderate)...I think this better reflects the forcing, as well.....because as you will see, weak of largely synonymous with modiko and east based strong. This makes sense, intuitively, since the stronger WWB needed to achieve a high ONI are not likely to allow the eastern regions to cool much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 Good stuff Ray! I have to incorporate more of the SOI and MEI into the strength assessment as well. This is something I will do over time. I am almost done making all my composites for my breakdowns. As a refresher I did composites for Temperature Anomalies (Global) 500mb Height Anomalies (Global) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (Pacific Basin) Sea-Level Pressure Anomalies (Global) Precipitation Anomalies (United States). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 7, 2023 Author Share Posted June 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Good stuff Ray! I have to incorporate more of the SOI and MEI into the strength assessment as well. This is something I will do over time. I am almost done making all my composites for my breakdowns. As a refresher I did composites for Temperature Anomalies (Global) 500mb Height Anomalies (Global) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (Pacific Basin) Sea-Level Pressure Anomalies (Global) Precipitation Anomalies (United States). DM SST composite charts for modoki, basin-wide, east based, weak, moderate, strong and intense. I did DM temps 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 DM Precip 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 DM H5 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 I also did VP vs 1991-2020 for each composite group. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: DM SST composite charts for modoki, basin-wide, east based, weak, moderate, strong and intense. I did DM temps 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 DM Precip 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 DM H5 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 I also did VP vs 1991-2020 for each composite group. Ray, if the Nino exceeds 2.0 ONI but peaks early and is at around 1.5 ONI (basin wide) DJF what would that imply for our winter prospects? Would the early peak save us from the usual torch we see in super nino events, or would it be enough to fuck us over and cause another well AN winter in the east temp wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 7, 2023 Author Share Posted June 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, George001 said: Ray, if the Nino exceeds 2.0 ONI but peaks early and is at around 1.5 ONI (basin wide) DJF what would that imply for our winter prospects? Would the early peak save us from the usual torch we see in super nino events, or would it be enough to fuck us over and cause another well AN winter in the east temp wise? I would bet on above normal in that case, but an earlier peak may be a bit better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: DM SST composite charts for modoki, basin-wide, east based, weak, moderate, strong and intense. I did DM temps 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 DM Precip 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 DM H5 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 I also did VP vs 1991-2020 for each composite group. For EL Nino I did not do breakdown of west, basin-wide, and east (or at least I didn't categorize it that way). I did the following: All EL Nino Weak EL Nino Moderate EL Nino Strong EL Nino Super-strong EL Nino All Modoki EL Nino Weak Modoki EL Nino Moderate Modoki EL Nino Strong Modoki EL Nino Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Neutral ENSO Forcing Weak EL Nino Neutral ENSO Forcing Moderate EL Nino Neutral ENSO Forcing Strong EL Nino EL Nino Forcing EL Nino EL Nino Forcing Weak EL Nino EL Nino Forcing Moderate EL Nino EL Nino Forcing Strong EL Nino I have to take the gf car into the shop, but I'll explain this breakdown more when I get back and post some charts of the events broken down and categorized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would bet on above normal in that case, but an earlier peak may be a bit better. Makes sense, Im looking forward to reading your blog next week and hearing your thoughts on the range of outcomes for this coming nino. I’m guessing the implications for winter are going to be that it won’t be a cold one, but higher KU potential. Hopefully the orientation of the nino is favorable and it doesn’t get too strong. There is such a big difference between say +6 or whatever last year was and say +2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 7, 2023 Author Share Posted June 7, 2023 4 hours ago, George001 said: Makes sense, Im looking forward to reading your blog next week and hearing your thoughts on the range of outcomes for this coming nino. I’m guessing the implications for winter are going to be that it won’t be a cold one, but higher KU potential. Hopefully the orientation of the nino is favorable and it doesn’t get too strong. There is such a big difference between say +6 or whatever last year was and say +2. Yea, subtle warmth and big precip is 2004-2005...but last season had prohibitive warmth mid winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, subtle warmth and big precip is 2004-2005...but last season had prohibitive warmth mid winter. Hello Ray. Imo, if the niño is more central based, despite the strength of it, we will have a few winter events and especially if the qbo is easterly or negative. It's still early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 8, 2023 Author Share Posted June 8, 2023 10 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Hello Ray. Imo, if the niño is more central based, despite the strength of it, we will have a few winter events and especially if the qbo is easterly or negative. It's still early. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 8, 2023 Author Share Posted June 8, 2023 Hello El Nino My Old Friend: El Nino Watch in Effect After Protracted La Nina | Eastern Mass Weather 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2023 Author Share Posted June 15, 2023 Anyone notice what a consistent pants tent the CanSIPS has been for winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone notice what a consistent pants tent the CanSIPS has been for winter? I mentioned that a couple of weeks ago. Haven't looked lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 it's insane lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2023 Author Share Posted June 15, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned that a couple of weeks ago. Haven't looked lately. CFS looks like a torch....NMME looks more like the CANSIPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2023 Author Share Posted June 15, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2023 Author Share Posted June 15, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's insane lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2023 Author Share Posted June 15, 2023 It honestly reminds me the most of 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2023 Author Share Posted June 15, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's insane lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CFS looks like a torch....NMME looks more like the CANSIPS. I feel like CFS flip flops a lot though. I mean I'm leaning towards another torch but hopefully it'll be like 2015-16 with one good monster storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 I'm worried but I feel like it won't really give any hints until September-maybe later in August. Distribution is key and keeping the magnitude below super levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 5 hours ago, weathafella said: I'm worried but I feel like it won't really give any hints until September-maybe later in August. Distribution is key and keeping the magnitude below super levels. I’m keeping my expectations for this winter low with a big nino expected. I’m not going to let myself get sucked into the hype like I did the past few years. After the non winter we just had, give me an average winter and I’ll be happy with it. Nothing wrong with one big one, a couple cold stretches and a couple smaller storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 We probably can’t do worse than last winter, so there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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