stadiumwave Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 16 hours ago, WinterWolf said: All you need to know is that it’s gonna be better this year when all is said and done, in SNE, than it was last year for everybody south of N. Worcester county. I am not worried at all whether we get off to a horrid start, or a good one….at the end of March, I’m not finishing with less than the 12” I got all of last year. That I am confident of. Average never looked so good. We have very similar avg snowfall, even though our climate is a bit different in the southern Great Lakes vs southern New England. I'm 40 and the lowest season snowfall I've seen is 25.5" (2011-12). You 100% will exceed last year. Some people get way too hung up on models, enso, etc. Then of course, you often have the battle of the cold vs warm trolls who always forecast the same thing regardless. But sometimes you just have to step back and look at the big picture. A huge area of the east saw record low snow last year, and many other areas stretching into the midwest saw below to well below average snowfall. Its the "law of averages". Look back at history at some of the really low snow years and notice how the next year almost always did better. On the flip side, during some banner snow years the next year is not as good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 This is kinda weather related but I get on twitter occasionally and HM or Anthony Masiello hasn't been on recently. Does anyone know have an idea why? Think his last post there was end of August. I always follow his insights about weather patterns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 This is kinda weather related but I get on twitter occasionally and HM or Anthony Masiello hasn't been on recently. Does anyone know have an idea why? Think his last post there was end of August. I always follow his insights about weather patterns It’s hopefully finally sunk in for HM that there’s absolutely no basis for him to forecast an above-normal snow winter. He really has nothing to talk about this time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 13 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said: It’s hopefully finally sunk in for HM that there’s absolutely no basis for him to forecast an above-normal snow winter. He really has nothing to talk about this time. . Are you thinking HM is Henry Margusity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Are you thinking HM is Henry Margusity? I thought it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Does anyone know why on the CPC indices pages when you click "Historical Index" to view the data this pop up happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 That error comes up when data is moved/deleted/discontinued. I've uploaded my winter outlook in the general section for anyone curious. I do have you guys much colder than last winter, but you still kind of get shafted in my analogs. I'm not sure why, but you do tend to have a dry spot in the volcanic El Ninos over the Northeast. Tends to show up in the -PDO El Ninos too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 2 hours ago, raindancewx said: That error comes up when data is moved/deleted/discontinued. I've uploaded my winter outlook in the general section for anyone curious. I do have you guys much colder than last winter, but you still kind of get shafted in my analogs. I'm not sure why, but you do tend to have a dry spot in the volcanic El Ninos over the Northeast. Tends to show up in the -PDO El Ninos too. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 UKMET updated, really nice DEC-MAR DJF: JFM DJF: ENSO 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 17 hours ago, raindancewx said: That error comes up when data is moved/deleted/discontinued. I've uploaded my winter outlook in the general section for anyone curious. I do have you guys much colder than last winter, but you still kind of get shafted in my analogs. I'm not sure why, but you do tend to have a dry spot in the volcanic El Ninos over the Northeast. Tends to show up in the -PDO El Ninos too. I found a bit of a work away after going at it for some time. 1) I did not realize most web browsers no longer support ftp. 2) I don't know what made me try this but within the url I just removed ftp and added http://www. and it worked!!! I had no other clue of accessing TNH data...looked everywhere. Though my brief start at the TNH (which I haven't really looked at in like 10 years) is it is very chaotic in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Came across this chart. Not sure how old it is. But it looks like values closer to 1 indicate it has a strong impact on the pattern and values closer to 10 indicate less importance https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/teletab.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 5 hours ago, stadiumwave said: UKMET updated, really nice DEC-MAR DJF: JFM DJF: ENSO Does any seasonal model have more accuracy over the other or does it really just come down to the month prior for more accuracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 59 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Does any seasonal model have more accuracy over the other or does it really just come down to the month prior for more accuracy? They all have strengths & weaknesses. Personally, Iike: Euro, UKMET, JMA, & CanSips. Blend the 4 in Nov & roll with it. I'm 100% not a fam of the CFS. It's eradic. It's monthly forecast is sometimes good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2023 Author Share Posted October 11, 2023 On 9/25/2023 at 10:15 AM, ORH_wxman said: Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005....lol. I hated that one...prob some convective feedback robbing us and that was probably possible because of weakish fronto dynamics. 12/29-30/2012 was one too....kind of fast moving, no great high. But it was a mundane warning event. Low went sub-984 as it crossed BM to east of CHH. 1/31/84 is a good one too...not quite 984mb, but it went sub-990mb. Mundane event. Do you know how to find historic wind data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do you know how to find historic wind data? You mean surface wind data? Obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2023 Author Share Posted October 11, 2023 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You mean surface wind data? Obs? Yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea You can get obs here. When it asks for download options I did "tab delimited" Lastly I saved it to my computer and opened it using notepad. You can do it as "comma delimited" and it saves it as an excel spread sheet. The full metar is displayed on the right in one of the columns. You may have to play around a bit. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/download.phtml?network=MA_ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Still think this is the man of all man obs METAR KBOS 132300Z 06047G62KT 0SM +TSSN -BLSN OVC/// M01/M01 A2916 RMK R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/10/11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Still think this is the man of all man obs METAR KBOS 132300Z 06047G62KT 0SM +TSSN -BLSN OVC/// M01/M01 A2916 RMK R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/10/11 Wow when is this from? March 10, 2011 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wow when is this from? March 10, 2011 right? That would be March 13 1993. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Ahh...so the 3/10/11 would be this: 3" last hour. 10" total. 11" OTG. When obs were obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ahh...so the 3/10/11 would be this: 3" last hour. 10" total. 11" OTG. When obs were obs. Derp. My bad. It's been awhile since I read a METAR as complicated as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ahh...so the 3/10/11 would be this: 3" last hour. 10" total. 11" OTG. When obs were obs. Yeah I loved the old hour/storm total/snow depth obs at the end of the METARs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2023 Author Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: You can get obs here. When it asks for download options I did "tab delimited" Lastly I saved it to my computer and opened it using notepad. You can do it as "comma delimited" and it saves it as an excel spread sheet. The full metar is displayed on the right in one of the columns. You may have to play around a bit. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/download.phtml?network=MA_ASOS Thanks. Outlook #10 is underway.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ahh...so the 3/10/11 would be this: 3" last hour. 10" total. 11" OTG. When obs were obs. Ok, so 3” in an hour, 10” total for what time period(the whole storm)? And if 10” is the total, then there was 1 inch on the ground before it started snowing, because it says 11” OTG….Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. Outlook #10 is underway.... We are waiting for the puff of white smoke from your chimney. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Ok, so 3” in an hour, 10” total for what time period(the whole storm)? And if 10” is the total, then there was 1 inch on the ground before it started snowing, because it says 11” OTG….Is that correct? Correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Still think this is the man of all man obs METAR KBOS 132300Z 06047G62KT 0SM +TSSN -BLSN OVC/// M01/M01 A2916 RMK R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/10/11 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 16 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Still think this is the man of all man obs METAR KBOS 132300Z 06047G62KT 0SM +TSSN -BLSN OVC/// M01/M01 A2916 RMK R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/10/11 North pole stuff, Can't see your hand in front of your face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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