CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 12 hours ago, MJO812 said: That’s not a cold and snow look for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: That's a great look for Jan/Feb but somewhat ugly for Dec....though at least in Dec you still have decent cold flowing down into the CONUS and not a GOA monster low torching everything, so you'd hope you could sneak in some chances. That looks like a gradient pattern for our area in December....issue will be is the gradient near Concord, NH, like last winter, or more bodily into SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That looks like a gradient pattern for our area in December....issue will be is the gradient near Concord, NH, like last winter, or more bodily into SNE. Yeah I commented that it looked like there was decent cold getting into the CONUS for Dec even if it was mostly west of us....but we know that can bleed over the top at times and setup a gradient storm or two. The ideal scenario is for December to act more Nina-ish and then we flip to classic Jan/Feb El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I commented that it looked like there was decent cold getting into the CONUS for Dec even if it was mostly west of us....but we know that can bleed over the top at times and setup a gradient storm or two. The ideal scenario is for December to act more Nina-ish and then we flip to classic Jan/Feb El Nino. That December pattern reminds me of the 2018-2019 season...hopefully some better luck this December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That December pattern reminds me of the 2018-2019 season...hopefully some better luck this December. I thought it looked like blocky recycled garbage coming in. Reminds me of typical Nino December. Probably HP to the north with that look, but would need a decent antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: I thought it looked like blocky recycled garbage coming in. Reminds me of typical Nino December. Probably HP to the north with that look, but would need a decent antecedent airmass. Up and in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Up and in. Congrats snow stakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Great.. just great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Great.. just great Elevation helps verbatim there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Elevation helps verbatim there. And latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Great.. just great December should be the worst month...but I feel like we will catch some breaks. It probably won't be snowless during the entire solar nadir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I thought it looked like blocky recycled garbage coming in. Reminds me of typical Nino December. Probably HP to the north with that look, but would need a decent antecedent airmass. Doesn't look quite as bad as some other recycled garbage patterns because you have a pretty strong ridge poking up to the GOA....so even though the EPO isn't strongly negative, you have cross polar flow at least coming from Bering/AK region rather than the source region being the Pacific. The pattern actually looks really similar to Dec 1967...that month was near normal temps, maybe slightly above (in the 1967 context with '51-'80 normals)....but it had some decent snow chances, although you'd probably take a toaster bath in the 12/28/67 storm which was a classic Rt 128 storm where BOS and the south shore struggled while metrowest cleaned up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Doesn't look quite as bad as some other recycled garbage patterns because you have a pretty strong ridge poking up to the GOA....so even though the EPO isn't strongly negative, you have cross polar flow at least coming from Bering/AK region rather than the source region being the Pacific. The pattern actually looks really similar to Dec 1967...that month was near normal temps, maybe slightly above (in the 1967 context with '51-'80 normals)....but it had some decent snow chances, although you'd probably take a toaster bath in the 12/28/67 storm which was a classic Rt 128 storm where BOS and the south shore struggled while metrowest cleaned up. I'll enjoy the 34F rain and will drive to 90/128 interchange to torture myself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Will, nearly 17" in Hingham that month. I'll take it. 8" prior to Christmas and 8" during the event you referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will, nearly 17" in Hingham that month. I'll take it. 8" prior to Christmas and 8" during the event you referenced. Yeah the coast got decent snow on the front end of that post-Xmas storm....it just got matted down with a lot of rain when it flipped while it stayed snow around 128 and west. But that's still a good December on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the coast got decent snow on the front end of that post-Xmas storm....it just got matted down with a lot of rain when it flipped while it stayed snow around 128 and west. But that's still a good December on the coast. A white Christmas at least lol. Hopefully there's some cold around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Doesn't look quite as bad as some other recycled garbage patterns because you have a pretty strong ridge poking up to the GOA....so even though the EPO isn't strongly negative, you have cross polar flow at least coming from Bering/AK region rather than the source region being the Pacific. The pattern actually looks really similar to Dec 1967...that month was near normal temps, maybe slightly above (in the 1967 context with '51-'80 normals)....but it had some decent snow chances, although you'd probably take a toaster bath in the 12/28/67 storm which was a classic Rt 128 storm where BOS and the south shore struggled while metrowest cleaned up. Yea, that is my take on the Euro look....there is a big ridge just off of the west coast, so its more like a la nina look....you don't have the PAC firehose eradicating all of the cold from the CONUS like you do in those traditional "game over" el nino months of December. I think the interior especially would do okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 I had 26.7" in Dec 1967....even if you lop several inches off for CC, I would take it and sprint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that is my take on the Euro look....there is a big ridge just off of the west coast, so its more like a la nina look....you don't have the PAC firehose eradicating all of the cold from the CONUS like you do in those traditional "game over" el nino months of December. I think the interior especially would do okay. With that look, my concern was the cold dumped west with a potential west based -NAO as shown and STJ with higher heights on the coast. That's how it looked to me. In any case, who knows. Maybe the lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes would help with some confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: With that look, my concern was the cold dumped west with a potential west based -NAO as shown and STJ with higher heights on the coast. That's how it looked to me. In any case, who knows. Maybe the lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes would help with some confluence. Certainly the cold dumps west...that's why I mentioned 2018-2019. Its not December 1995, but nor is it Dec 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Certainly the cold dumps west...that's why I mentioned 2018-2019. Its not December 1995, but nor is it Dec 2015. Hubbdave starting out where he left off? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 I don't see a problem up here with that especially inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 38 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't see a problem up here with that especially inland. You will probably like December more than February. I just want a serviceable pattern in December and we have just that, as modeled. Anything early on is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You will probably like December more than February. I just want a serviceable pattern in December it is just that, as modeled. Anything early on is gravy. Basically how I feel too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You will probably like December more than February. I just want a serviceable pattern in December it is just that, as modeled. Anything early on is gravy. As long as we have a decent pack by then it won't matter much, I like when we get an early start, The ongoing issue that i see happening is getting enough cold air to freeze ground and waterways before the snow flies, It just takes longer once insulated to achieve that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That December pattern reminds me of the 2018-2019 season...hopefully some better luck this December. If I'm not mistaken, we had a nice snow storm in December that year. I think it was a little over 12 inches at my house. But it was like 2 days of sleet one day and then this big snow the next. We even had thunder and lightning during the sleet portion of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: If I'm not mistaken, we had a nice snow storm in December that year. I think it was a little over 12 inches at my house. But it was like 2 days of sleet one day and then this big snow the next. We even had thunder and lightning during the sleet portion of the storm That was Dec 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was Dec 2019 You're correct. Just before You responded... I realized it was 2019. I cannot remember what happened in December of the year before. At least not in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: You're correct. Just before You responded... I realized it was 2019. I cannot remember what happened in December of the year before. At least not in this area. Because nothing happened lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 All you need to know is that it’s gonna be better this year when all is said and done, in SNE, than it was last year for everybody south of N. Worcester county. I am not worried at all whether we get off to a horrid start, or a good one….at the end of March, I’m not finishing with less than the 12” I got all of last year. That I am confident of. Average never looked so good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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