2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

A crusty 1’? Or 1”? 

1" my fault. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I reall wish that site went back to March 2001....that gradient would have been even more ridiculous....you had 40+ in ORH county and almost nothing in SE MA.

At least I didn't get to see that multiple times a week.    

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I can’t unsee this. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can’t unsee this. 

This one was the cause of an epic Kevin meltdown....MLK weekend massacre 2010

 

[CoastalWx]

Eff Hubbardston

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Eff Hubbardston

 

Was that the March storm this year?

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was that the March storm this year?

Weird it cut out, yep right after. LOL.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Next year is another big la nina, so this may be my one shot to get the first good season since 2017-2018.

How confident are we on that?  Seems like a long ways off.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

How confident are we on that?  Seems like a long ways off.

Not very....gonna focus on the next 5 months first lol

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think a lot of people have an unrealistic view of the past when it comes to winter wx. It certainly was colder, but it wasn't Quebec City either and the snow climatology was not 1925 BOS being equal to present day ORH or even present day BED....and a lot of the warming doesn't manifest in cyclogenesis anyway....rather in the milder patterns intruding into the region during more unfavorable hemispheric longwave setups and in radiational cooling spots during calm nights.

CC really needs to be thought of in terms of probability on the tails which usually makes people's eyes glaze over, so I understand why its often dumbed down for the masses. But what it really means is that we've increased the chances of record warm events but this does not magically eliminate natural variability either. There's a reason we had our coldest month of all time in 2015 after over a century of CC....natural variation still is the dominant player on smaller timescales such as months and seasons. But when you get a canonical warm pattern, CC helps that become more likely to be record warmth versus 100 years ago. 

Do you think CC helps make the all out, melt 'em to Canada torches more likely though?  In my mind, that seems to be happening on a more frequent basis.  And I know there have always been those type of occurrences but they seem more frequent now. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

This one was the cause of an epic Kevin meltdown....MLK weekend massacre 2010

 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Do you think CC helps make the all out, melt 'em to Canada torches more likely though?  In my mind, that seems to be happening on a more frequent basis.  And I know there have always been those type of occurrences but they seem more frequent now. 

Yes, it would make them more common. That's going to be true by definition in a warmer world....in a previous torch where it didn't quite all melt out to Canada, now it might. But I think people should be aware of the statistics and probability to competently discuss it.

I often come across even supposedly vetted news articles that claim certain weather events are "unprecedented" only to find something extremely similar in the past....or worse, something that even eclipsed their example.

CC makes anything warmer more likely....the "loaded dice" description is pretty accurate IMHO....but the question is by how much and when we are discussing non-temperature weather events such as large storms, nor'easters, droughts, etc, how much weight is CC on the attribution list? Sometimes the answer is zero or at least statistically insignificant. 

That's where some of our previous discussions went when talking about the anomalous warm winters we've seen since 2017-18...a lot of people knee-jerkingly blamed CC as the primary culprit, but it's extremely unlikely that it was. It's part of the reason, but a few seasons of mostly warm winters is more likely caused by natural variability with CC acting as a tail wind. The evidence for this is that other regions of the country and continent have become significantly colder in those same seasons....here are the winters since '17-18 versus the previous 5.

 

We can repeat this exercise too for previous periods like when the northern plains down to the SE US were warming way more rapidly in the late 1980s/1990s and then they became colder in the 2000s/early 2010s. The longterm average increases but it's not a smooth ride.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, it would make them more common. That's going to be true by definition in a warmer world....in a previous torch where it didn't quite all melt out to Canada, now it might. But I think people should be aware of the statistics and probability to competently discuss it.

I often come across even supposedly vetted news articles that claim certain weather events are "unprecedented" only to find something extremely similar in the past....or worse, something that even eclipsed their example.

CC makes anything warmer more likely....the "loaded dice" description is pretty accurate IMHO....but the question is by how much and when we are discussing non-temperature weather events such as large storms, nor'easters, droughts, etc, how much weight is CC on the attribution list? Sometimes the answer is zero or at least statistically insignificant. 

That's where some of our previous discussions went when talking about the anomalous warm winters we've seen since 2017-18...a lot of people knee-jerkingly blamed CC as the primary culprit, but it's extremely unlikely that it was. It's part of the reason, but a few seasons of mostly warm winters is more likely caused by natural variability with CC acting as a tail wind. The evidence for this is that other regions of the country and continent have become significantly colder in those same seasons....here are the winters since '17-18 versus the previous 5.

 

We can repeat this exercise too for previous periods like when the northern plains down to the SE US were warming way more rapidly in the late 1980s/1990s and then they became colder in the 2000s/early 2010s. The longterm average increases but it's not a smooth ride.

 

 

 

Of course, from my back yard points north is warm in both composites lol

[forkyfork]

22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think a lot of people have an unrealistic view of the past when it comes to winter wx. It certainly was colder, but it wasn't Quebec City either and the snow climatology was not 1925 BOS being equal to present day ORH or even present day BED....and a lot of the warming doesn't manifest in cyclogenesis anyway....rather in the milder patterns intruding into the region during more unfavorable hemispheric longwave setups and in radiational cooling spots during calm nights.

CC really needs to be thought of in terms of probability on the tails which usually makes people's eyes glaze over, so I understand why its often dumbed down for the masses. But what it really means is that we've increased the chances of record warm events but this does not magically eliminate natural variability either. There's a reason we had our coldest month of all time in 2015 after over a century of CC....natural variation still is the dominant player on smaller timescales such as months and seasons. But when you get a canonical warm pattern, CC helps that become more likely to be record warmth versus 100 years ago. 

isn't the warmer west pacific focusing tropical forcing in a region that's unfavorable for eastern us cold?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

isn't the warmer west pacific focusing tropical forcing in a region that's unfavorable for eastern us cold?

Maybe? Are we sure that's the primary culprit? And if it is, is it going to continue? Do we need to update CC models to show that the plains and west are going to be colder than originally expected moving forward while the east is going to be warmer? Are we sure another Pacific blob isn't going to show up like 2013-2015 or more sea ice-induced monster -AO patterns?

 

I dunno....they are plausible, but color me skeptical on regional enhancements being more than transitory outside of more robust empirical evidence (I'd put arctic amplification in that category...far more robust evidence supporting it).

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe? Are we sure that's the primary culprit? And if it is, is it going to continue? Do we need to update CC models to show that the plains and west are going to be colder than originally expected moving forward while the east is going to be warmer? Are we sure another Pacific blob isn't going to show up like 2013-2015 or more sea ice-induced monster -AO patterns?

 

I dunno....they are plausible, but color me skeptical on regional enhancements being more than transitory outside of more robust empirical evidence (I'd put arctic amplification in that category...far more robust evidence supporting it).

Too much attempt to target specific oceanic regions as causal in x-y-z pattern tendencies.

This is now a relatively new faux methodology that's coming about in social media and Tweets from big reputations, and it's not right.

Perhaps not the intent, ... but it sure comes off that way.  If we wanna really skeptic as scientist ... the whole flapping oceanic planet is +1.2C on average or whatever it was as of last check. Pretty much in every direction and region, save for small seemingly irrelevant cool offset upweller chimneys.  And that would seem intuitively a big red flag not to trust any of it - worth of empirical test and geo-physical review.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Too much attempt to target specific oceanic regions as causal in x-y-z pattern tendencies.

This is now a relatively new faux methodology that's coming about in social media and Tweets from big reputations, and it's not right.

 

The last 10-15 years got my head spinning on a lot of the attribution studies....they often feel like "flavor of the month"....trying to explain a multi-year pattern as something more permanent like those other examples I gave above. They haven't managed to stand the test of time so far.

I'm not going to claim that the northeast cannot warm a lot faster than everywhere else for a long period of time, but it certainly would be pretty unusual for that to happen at our middling latitude. That type of consistent (say, multiple decades) higher end warming trend has been almost exclusively relegated to the high latitudes and lower latitude trends have typically fluctuated a lot more.

[Typhoon Tip]

I will say that I lean a lot of ballast in the direction of RONI studies ... Perhaps a personal bias for the fact that I conceptualized something quite similar many years back. 

That said, it's probably got blurred forcing boundaries.   Thresholds here and there, that have to be estimated, or less than discrete in general.   Who knows? Right....  like, 20 ... 30% of the  ENSO warm legs are chopped off, because ENSO is wading in a pissy world already ... making a 7' monster more like a 6'2" tall guy.  

What's funny is that the 6'2" guys tend to actually jump the highest - ...  fun metaphor.

 

[forkyfork]

there are studies that show we're getting mjo waves more frequently in phases 4-6 which correlates to warmth in the east

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there are studies that show we're getting mjo waves more frequently in phases 4-6 which correlates to warmth in the east

I don't doubt that is true.

There were also studies showing we were getting more frequent winter -AO "warm arctic/cold continent" patterns in the 2000s/early 2010s compared to the previous 2-3 decades, but that trend obviously did not sustain. Maybe the MJO trend will...my default is to be skeptical of regional trends sustaining which is where the literature struggles the most.

[stadiumwave]

EURO Seasonal Updated 

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

[Go Kart Mozart]

25 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

EURO Seasonal Updated 

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

This corresponds to a fading Nino, right?

[Itryatgolf70]

24 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This corresponds to a fading Nino, right?

Imo, it corresponds to an El niño shifting east to west, which typically is cooler east of the rockies. Hopefully convection will hang out around the dateline at some point this winter.

[ORH_wxman]

That's a great look for Jan/Feb but somewhat ugly for Dec....though at least in Dec you still have decent cold flowing down into the CONUS and not a GOA monster low torching everything, so you'd hope you could sneak in some chances.

[stadiumwave]

I'll throw this out there, just for interest & fun. Paul Roundy's MJO tools showing a big -EPO in early DEC:

 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, stadiumwave said:

I'll throw this out there, just for interest & fun. Paul Roundy's MJO tools showing a big -EPO in early DEC:

 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

What's the track record on that 2 months out?

I can't imagine it's great.

[stadiumwave]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What's the track record on that 2 months out?

I can't imagine it's great.

 

Probably not...like I said for interest & fun. 

But his MJO tools are really good in a shorter term.

[ORH_wxman]

44 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Probably not...like I said for interest & fun. 

But his MJO tools are really good in a shorter term.

Thanks....yeah if we got that type of -EPO in Dec, then we're prob off to the races. That's a Dec '09 look...... though with a west-based -NAO that is more tame than the 2009 steroids version. But that would still be an excellent winter pattern.

[stadiumwave]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thanks....yeah if we got that type of -EPO in Dec, then we're prob off to the races. That's a Dec '09 look...... though with a west-based -NAO that is more tame than the 2009 steroids version. But that would still be an excellent winter pattern.

Paul was asked that question & responded:

 

[MJO812]