2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

More bad news for those hoping/ calling for big winter 

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1709300382361403646?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Firstly, its not "more" news...its a reiteration of what has been chronicled all summer and into the fall. Secondly, if you read the thread, he acknowledged my contentions were valid.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s looking for clicks…it’s that simple. 

I don't think he is like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

He don't seem to realize that the sample size for this is almost non existent to really compare anything to, except 1876 from what I've gathered. This winter may ultimately be warm, but imo it's still too early to guarantee anything because of the uniqueness moving forward of so many factors

 Very likely to be somewhat warm in the DM mean, but if get 30" in January and 40" in February, raise your hand if you'll care?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is actually a good sign. Last year at this time there were all these calls that went to was going to be amazing. I'm just about everyone. I think we all went into December thinking this is going to be epic and it turned out to be a big weenie dud. So I'm going with a better winter. Plus, this whole super Nina thing, I'm not sure that's happening. Moderate at best.

Who???

I think DT originally was thinking big, but he caught on quickly in December....Cosgrove never really backed off, but who else??

I was normalish, which didn't work out due to the record -PDO, but I was right on with respect to the polar fields.

[Ginx snewx]

No worries 

[WinterWolf]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think he is like that.

They’re all like that to a point(some more than others obviously)…it’s their business. 

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

My preliminary winter outlook:

https://longislandwx.blogspot.com/2023/10/preliminary-winter-outlook-2023-2024.html

In your outlook, you said:

“I've decided to take a blend of 1952-1953, 1956-1957, 1972-1973 & 2009-2010.”

  Also, following that, the three maps you showed included 1956-7 instead of 1957-8 (H5, temperatures, and precip) in the Nov-Mar blend calculation.

 Obviously, you meant 1957-8 (strong CP El Niño), which I see you mentioned earlier several times, instead of 1956-7 (cold neutral). 

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No worries 

It’s gonna be much better than last years King Rat.  And that’s all anybody needs to know. If it ends up average….that’s 4X better than last year here…we definitely take.   

[dryslot]

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s gonna be much better than last years King Rat.  And that’s all anybody needs to know. If it ends up average….that’s 4X better than last year here…we definitely take.   

Its all relative to where your BY is, We finished above avg albeit late here last winter as far as snowfall but the retention was not very good overall because of it being late.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its all relative to where your BY is, We finished above avg albeit late here last winter as far as snowfall but the retention was not very good overall because of it being late.

Oh of course. I was talking for 90% of SNE. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh of course. I was talking for 90% of SNE. 

In any winter, Somebody gets shafted, Good example here is 2009-10 where everyone else was rejoicing to the south.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who???

I think DT originally was thinking big, but he caught on quickly in December....Cosgrove never really backed off, but who else??

I was normalish, which didn't work out due to the record -PDO, but I was right on with respect to the polar fields.

Hmmmm... I remember last October/November there was a lot of talk of a good pattern setting up... by you as well ( and please know.. not saying this in as it is a bad thing ). Even you had mentioned late in the season that things didn't quite work out the way you had thought ( and several others I might add )

That's what I meant with my post, but I am hoping that this season is at least somewhat better than last season. 

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its all relative to where your BY is, We finished above avg albeit late here last winter as far as snowfall but the retention was not very good overall because of it being late.

Yeah you guys had a good run late. 

We never shook the mind-melting delusion of tracking epic 10 day patterns from late November through March down here.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah you guys had a good run late. 

We never shook the mind-melting delusion of tracking epic 10 day patterns from late November through March down here.

We got pretty lucky as being just to the north of the gradient, But everything was quite progressive too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hmmmm... I remember last October/November there was a lot of talk of a good pattern setting up... by you as well ( and please know.. not saying this in as it is a bad thing ). Even you had mentioned late in the season that things didn't quite work out the way you had thought ( and several others I might add )

That's what I meant with my post, but I am hoping that this season is at least somewhat better than last season. 

And it did....what you need to wrap your mind around is that a good pattern setting up and nuances dictating an unfavorable track relative to your back yard are not mutually exclusive. That was a damn good look just before Xmas last year.

[It's Always Sunny]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

In your outlook, you said:

“I've decided to take a blend of 1952-1953, 1956-1957, 1972-1973 & 2009-2010.”

  Also, following that, the three maps you showed included 1956-7 instead of 1957-8 (H5, temperatures, and precip) in the Nov-Mar blend calculation.

 Obviously, you meant 1957-8 (strong CP El Niño), which I see you mentioned earlier several times, instead of 1956-7 (cold neutral). 

Ah good catch I’ll fix that. Thank you!

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And it did....what you need to wrap your mind around is that a good pattern setting up and nuances dictating an unfavorable track relative to your back yard are not mutually exclusive. That was a damn good look just before Xmas last year.

In all fairness, went black and read what you had posted. Although you were very excited about it a big change to more wintry pattern heading into later December, you also did give some thoughts on the possibility of what could happen with us not getting the right setup. I always respect what you post. 

[WxWatcher007]

It was a great look, which produced an all-time and catastrophic blizzard in WNY and deep historic Christmas cold for much of the US. 

But unfortunately, the rest of the season happened.

Aside from the self-deprecating comedic melts last season there’s no shtick here. It’s hard for me to get past last season, especially considering the seasons before. There have been some historic rats here in the last 5 years mixed in with really bad seasons and I’m not just talking snowfall. Blowtorch months throwing everything out of whack. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It was a great look, which produced an all-time and catastrophic blizzard in WNY and deep historic Christmas cold for much of the US. 

But unfortunately, the rest of the season happened.

Aside from the self-deprecating comedic melts last season there’s no shtick here. It’s hard for me to get past last season, especially considering the seasons before. There have been some historic rats here in the last 5 years mixed in with really bad seasons and I’m not just talking snowfall. Blowtorch months throwing everything out of whack. 

And it is only getting worse. Wolfie hates this topic but he’ll be less angry once he accepts the reality of CC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

In all fairness, went black and read what you had posted. Although you were very excited about it a big change to more wintry pattern heading into later December, you also did give some thoughts on the possibility of what could happen with us not getting the right setup. I always respect what you post. 

I mean, did I expect us to cash in more than we did, absolutely....in terms of snowfall. Fail. However, I really had a pretty good grasp of the pattern overall with the exception of ENSO orientation...another fail. I simply failed to adequately capture how aggressively la nina would shift to modoki. I also missed the true magnitude of what turned out to be a record cold phase of the Pacific....which is exceedingly difficult to do for the world's strongest computers at 10 days lead, never mind on a seasonal level. This is why you always see "smoothed" solutions among long term ensemble means.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

One thing I learned last season is to stop ignoring ENSO after I post the outlook. I am going to need to continue ENSO updates in season because I would have bailed on mid winter before the new year had I done that last season. It was clear it was shifting west and going modoki.

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And it is only getting worse. Wolfie hates this topic but he’ll be less angry once he accepts the reality of CC.

I think the recent snowfall disasters are more bad luck than anything, but the temperature shift, particularly the warmer lows over time, is really bad for the environment and driven by CC. 

I think a normal temperature winter—highs and lows—would feel cold to the general public at this point. 

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And it is only getting worse. Wolfie hates this topic but he’ll be less angry once he accepts the reality of CC.

I will say CC was probably a statistically significant, but still relatively trivial factor in how last season played out. Unless (as I asked this question in the main forum) we believe that all of the sudden regional anomalies such as the Pacific warm blob (2013-2015) and -AO pattern from melting sea ice (2009-2013) are not going to be transitory this time around and New England is just semi-permanently being stuck as the warmest region in the CONUS relative to average for the foreseeable future.

[DavisStraight]

55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah you guys had a good run late. 

We never shook the mind-melting delusion of tracking epic 10 day patterns from late November through March down here.

I remember even the small ponds having ice for only a short time, the bigger lakes had some small coatings, but it was never safe to go out into the middle.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think the recent snowfall disasters are more bad luck than anything, but the temperature shift, particularly the warmer lows over time, is really bad for the environment and driven by CC. 

I think a normal temperature winter—highs and lows—would feel cold to the general public at this point. 

I think these borderline events are where we see the effects more. We probably would have seen these borderline events be snowier in the 495 belt especially and possibly towards the coast. It's just speculation of course, but in some instances 1C would have made the difference, especially inland.

 

But I would argue even in the days of yore, that overall hemispheric pattern would have sucked. You're not going to get a ton of snow with that look even if we were a bit cooler. Cutters still would cut. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think these borderline events are where we see the effects more. We probably would have seen these borderline events be snowier in the 495 belt especially and possibly towards the coast. It's just speculation of course, but in some instances 1C would have made the difference, especially inland.

 

But I would argue even in the days of yore, that overall hemispheric pattern would have sucked. You're not going to get a ton of snow with that look even if we were a bit cooler. Cutters still would cut. 

CC probably cost me several inches last year...that is fair....especially in that early March-nipple event. What I have an issue with is people claiming a PV phased further west due to CC....while plausible, that is quite a leap that requires lifetimes worth of data to validate sufficiently.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC probably cost me several inches last year...that is fair....especially in that early March-nipple event. What I have an issue with is people claiming a PV phased further west due to CC....while plausible, that is quite a leap that requires lifetimes worth of data to validate sufficiently.

Yeah if you can prove CC was responsible for troughs into the Baja of CA...you'd be a billionaire lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think these borderline events are where we see the effects more. We probably would have seen these borderline events be snowier in the 495 belt especially and possibly towards the coast. It's just speculation of course, but in some instances 1C would have made the difference, especially inland.

 

But I would argue even in the days of yore, that overall hemispheric pattern would have sucked. You're not going to get a ton of snow with that look even if we were a bit cooler. Cutters still would cut. 

Yeah maybe the Mar 13-14 storm last year is snowier into ORH city (huge gradient right there) in the days of yore....skeptical about it getting awesome much further east because of that nasty nipple low in CT driving those 925s inland, but maybe perhaps to 495ish could've seen 6-10" instead of mostly sloppy 3-6.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah if you can prove CC was responsible for troughs into the Baja of CA...you'd be a billionaire lol. 

Party @bluewave's ranch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah maybe the Mar 13-14 storm last year is snowier into ORH city (huge gradient right there) in the days of yore....skeptical about it getting awesome much further east because of that nasty nipple low in CT driving those 925s inland, but maybe perhaps to 495ish could've seen 6-10" instead of mostly sloppy 3-6.

Yea, those are my thoughts....around my area. I probably get closer to a foot than 7" of compacted slush.