SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 What did the CanSips show last year at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 That new CanSips shows a nice blocking signal in December….what was the previous post meaning when it said it lost the blocking signal in Dec? Doesn’t look lost to me in December on that updated CanSips that was posted by stadiumwave . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: What did the CanSips show last year at this time? Ya, that would be interesting. I thought somebody mentioned that a ways back…don’t remember if anybody said what it showed though? Or if they did I don’t remember what the answer was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: What did the CanSips show last year at this time? No seasonal model has much skill outside of a month. So the take away is more a take away of themes & trends rather than specifics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 CFS has AO going negative for entire month which is most of the time a good indicator of PV staying relatively weak. Now, there could be major decoupling & that not be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Here are the CanSip ensemble member 2m Temps from the update I posted yesterday: DEC JAN FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 15 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: Here are the CanSip ensemble member 2m Temps from the update I posted yesterday: DEC JAN FEB Lots of torch options there unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lots of torch options there unfortunately Doesn’t look too convincing either way. I don’t look at those and sharpen my snow shovels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 Paul is an absolute giant of an expert. His peer-reviwed paper on this is in 2nd tweet: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2023 Author Share Posted October 2, 2023 On 10/1/2023 at 10:20 PM, stadiumwave said: Paul is an absolute giant of an expert. His peer-reviwed paper on this is in 2nd tweet: Most events fall somewhere in between, including 2015-2016... he's right about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 11 hours ago, stadiumwave said: Paul is an absolute giant of an expert. His peer-reviwed paper on this is in 2nd tweet: Dr. Roundy is a good friend of mine. We spoke yesterday afternoon. It's difficult to reach him lol. He told me that it will be very interesting with not many analogs to look at and with so many competing forces this winter. The pdo will probably trend less negative as winter approaches. He said definitely a trend west which is atypical of niños and probably not as west as 2015-16 but he said still too early to know for sure. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 I updated my my subjective ENSO analyses on my site. I'm still in the process of updating some of the climo datasets I use to generate composites but it'll have minimal effect. https://weatherchest.weebly.com/ep-el-nintildeo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 22 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Dr. Roundy is a good friend of mine. We spoke yesterday afternoon. It's difficult to reach him lol. He told me that it will be very interesting with not many analogs to look at and with so many competing forces this winter. The pdo will probably trend less negative as winter approaches. He said definitely a trend west which is atypical of niños and probably not as west as 2015-16 but he said still too early to know for sure. Any insight on whether or not he will allow the restraining order on@snowman19to expire? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Any insight on whether or not he will allow the restraining order on@snowman19to expire? I didn't think about it. I was just curious mainly to find out if we had any opportunities to have a colder winter at any point this winter. Since we have quite a few conflicting signals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 36 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I didn't think about it. I was just curious mainly to find out if we had any opportunities to have a colder winter at any point this winter. Since we have quite a few conflicting signals. Did he mention any thoughts on what he thought winter would hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 My preliminary winter outlook: https://longislandwx.blogspot.com/2023/10/preliminary-winter-outlook-2023-2024.html 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Fish I'm just posting. Don’t care about the LR stuff (though I recognize and value the contributions of folks like Ray and Raindance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 honestly i don't care about what he says about winter after talking about 70 degree temps coming up on modeling as Boston is getting 2 feet of snow in late Jan 2022 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 snowman19 just exposed himself after that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: snowman19 just exposed himself after that. so much of the ENSO stuff this year has been pretty reductive. I think some that are just looking at raw SSTs are going to get caught with their pants down 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 like honestly, I know this is a seasonal model, but I can't really look at this and be like "damn, winter is gonna suck" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Fish I'm just posting. Don’t care about the LR stuff (though I recognize and value the contributions of folks like Ray and Raindance) He don't seem to realize that the sample size for this is almost non existent to really compare anything to, except 1876 from what I've gathered. This winter may ultimately be warm, but imo it's still too early to guarantee anything because of the uniqueness moving forward of so many factors 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 3 hours ago, stadiumwave said: Did he mention any thoughts on what he thought winter would hold? He said colder back half like most typical niños, but he said if the forcing is around the Dateline, we will freeze most likely but obviously still early to know for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Fish I'm just posting. Don’t care about the LR stuff (though I recognize and value the contributions of folks like Ray and Raindance) He’s looking for clicks…it’s that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He’s looking for clicks…it’s that simple. I don’t really take a stance…I’m settling into fall mode. Starting to see more winter talk out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Fish I'm just posting. Don’t care about the LR stuff (though I recognize and value the contributions of folks like Ray and Raindance) I mean, he’s not the first person to feel like this winter May suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 4 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: He said colder back half like most typical niños, but he said if the forcing is around the Dateline, we will freeze most likely but obviously still early to know for sure Like to hear Paul kind of in line with some others. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 More bad news for those hoping/ calling for big winter https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1709300382361403646?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: More bad news for those hoping/ calling for big winter https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1709300382361403646?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Is actually a good sign. Last year at this time there were all these calls that went to was going to be amazing. I'm just about everyone. I think we all went into December thinking this is going to be epic and it turned out to be a big weenie dud. So I'm going with a better winter. Plus, this whole super Nina thing, I'm not sure that's happening. Moderate at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Fish I'm just posting. Don’t care about the LR stuff (though I recognize and value the contributions of folks like Ray and Raindance) It reminds World Climate Service of the winter of 1878 The Year Without a Winter: 1877-78 | Minnesota DNR (state.mn.us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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