2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray what's your goal with the weak high question?

Will make sense in a few weeks.

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will make sense in a few weeks.

Just make sure they're anchored somewhere north of New England.

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just make sure they're anchored somewhere north of New England.

Just make sure the setups are exactly the opposite of last year....lol. Didn't even have a weak high over Nova Scotia....instead they were chilling out over the Andrea Gale

[kazimirkai]

Any thoughts on what caused the cpc to change their temp/precip map the way they did for DJF in the latest update?

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, kazimirkai said:

Any thoughts on what caused the cpc to change their temp/precip map the way they did for DJF in the latest update?

If you like winter, Was it for the better, or worse? 

[kazimirkai]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

If you like winter, Was it for the better, or worse? 

Well it was roughly the same, high precip spreads a little farther west in the southern portion of the country, drier northern tier, and some of the "50-60% chance of above average temperature" area shifted from the northern plains to the northeast and great lakes region. I was just wondering if anyone knew whether there was some sort of new data they were using to make these changes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, kazimirkai said:

Well it was roughly the same, high precip spreads a little farther west in the southern portion of the country, drier northern tier, and some of the "50-60% chance of above average temperature" area shifted from the northern plains to the northeast and great lakes region. I was just wondering if anyone knew whether there was some sort of new data they were using to make these changes.

Sounds worse to me....not that I care.

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, kazimirkai said:

Well it was roughly the same, high precip spreads a little farther west in the southern portion of the country, drier northern tier, and some of the "50-60% chance of above average temperature" area shifted from the northern plains to the northeast and great lakes region. I was just wondering if anyone knew whether there was some sort of new data they were using to make these changes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really, really like a tamer version of 2015 as an ENSO analog...which is certainly not necessarily a death knell for eastern snow hounds

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are already running behind 2015 everywhere except 1.2 and 4 (aside from MEI and RONI), so losing more ground would be notable.

 16SEP2015     22.8 2.1     27.2 2.3     28.6 2.0     29.6 0.9

 20SEP2023     23.5 2.8     27.0 2.1     28.3 1.7     29.9 1.2

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JJA 2015   1.24 

JJA 2023   0.57 

2015

0.2

0

0.1

0.5

1.2

1.7

1.7

1.9

2023

-1.1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

 

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

RONI growth from JJA value to peak

1982 1.65

1997 .74

2015 1.11

MEI growth from JA value to peak

1982 .8

1997 .1

2015 .2

Lets assume an aggressive 1982 like growth curve for the balance of the fall into the cold season....

RONI peak of 2.25

MEI peak of 1.2

 

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are going to need to see something unprecedented in order for this el nino to BOTH register as a super event relative to the warmer globe AND couple strongly enough to influence the hemisphere at a level commensurate with an event of that magnitude.

Period.

Using history as a guide it would appear as the former is more likely than the latter, which makes sense considering the state of the cool ENSO dominated hemisphere over the course of the last several years...some of that energy will be spent forcing change instead of actually dictating the ROSBY wave train, etc....almost akin to virga whereas it doesn't actually precipitate until the moisture triggers a tipping point...AKA saturation. What the preponderance of evidence is conveying is that it will take time to elicit a response from the atmosphere and that matters.

 

 

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just expounding on this a bit further....if we think back to 1995 and how that season evolved, many in hindsight speculated that the active STJ during that modest cold ENSO event was due to the hemisphere having been dominated by warm ENSO for the previous few years. Well, in this case, we have a robust el nino attempting to assert in the face of one of the more protracted and prevalent cool ENSO events on record, so it stands to reason that there may be some similar lag effects and mixed features here (not using 1995 as an analog). Almost like overrunning when SW flow runs into a cold high...some of that energy is initially spent on producing precipitation until the warm advection eventually overwhelms.

My working theory is we may see a N stream branch every bit as prominent as the STJ at times this season.....how exactly that works and who reaps the benefits and is porked TBD.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@ORH_wxman& @CoastalWx..any thoughts on this??

[ORH_wxman]

Yes, I find the evidence that MEI won't get close to super Nino status quite compelling. Still a small sample size, so I wouldn't rule it out entirely, but it does seem like it's going to be a moderate to maybe strong MEI at the peak rather than super.

Weaker MEI could manifest in the pattern any number of ways....hopefully it's to our advantage. A somewhat stronger northern stream influence with still a decent STJ would probably be a best case scenario (ala a winter like '77-78)

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, I find the evidence that MEI won't get close to super Nino status quite compelling. Still a small sample size, so I wouldn't rule it out entirely, but it does seem like it's going to be a moderate to maybe strong MEI at the peak rather than super.

Weaker MEI could manifest in the pattern any number of ways....hopefully it's to our advantage. A somewhat stronger northern stream influence with still a decent STJ would probably be a best case scenario (ala a winter like '77-78)

You just happened upon one of my sensible weather analogs....entirely independent of this, mind you....I just line up the matching ENSO state years and sort out best temp and precip matches....1977 made the list for both. Keep in mind there are other seasons, so don't get the wrong idea....

[CoastalWx]

Ray I have seen that logic too in the industry. Years of cold ENSO maybe helping this Nino stay in its cage. I don't disagree with any of that. 

 

Some are speculating we may see a jump in MEI...but I agree seems like something closer to strong, vs super is more likely.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray I have seen that logic too in the industry. Years of cold ENSO maybe helping this Nino stay in its cage. I don't disagree with any of that. 

 

Some are speculating we may see a jump in MEI...but I agree seems like something closer to strong, vs super is more likely.

No doubt we see a jump between now and November, but I don't see it getting above 1.5, at most. I would say like 1.2 to 1.4

[J Paul Gordon]

How do 2001-02 and 2011-12 work for analogs for the upcoming winter? Serious question, not weenie whining. I'm wondering about the ENSO/El Nino factor. Since I'm not a Met, I don't have the facts at my fingertips.

With the big warm-up coming next week and long-range forecasts for AN fall and winter, I'm curious as to HOW much warmer than average. Is it even possible to make a good guess on that?

Thanks for any serious responses.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You just happened upon one of my sensible weather analogs....entirely independent of this, mind you....I just line up the matching ENSO state years and sort out best temp and precip matches....1977 made the list for both. Keep in mind there are other seasons, so don't get the wrong idea....

Yeah and '77-'78 is a brutally cold analog that is unlikely to repeat on temps...though '14-'15 was basically the same DJFM temps as '77-'78...but that was also an extreme season.

If we somehow return to a +PNA pattern that coincides with some arctic blocking, then we're gonna get cold for a time. We just haven't really seen that type of pattern in any type of sustained fashion since 2014-15 save maybe maybe Dec 2017/early Jan 2018 and Jan 2022....we had some shorter stints in Dec 2020 and 2nd half of Jan 2019 that helped cause the record breaking cold outbreak that month, but these have been the exception rather than the overwhelmingly -PNA rule with lower arctic blocking.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

How do 2001-02 and 2011-12 work for analogs for the upcoming winter? Serious question, not weenie whining. I'm wondering about the ENSO/El Nino factor. Since I'm not a Met, I don't have the facts at my fingertips.

With the big warm-up coming next week and long-range forecasts for AN fall and winter, I'm curious as to HOW much warmer than average. Is it even possible to make a good guess on that?

Thanks for any serious responses.

'01-'02 and '11-'12 are terrible ENSO analogues. '01-'02 at least was coming off a 3-year La Nina like this year was, but it was a neutral ENSO year whereas we're gonna in a potent El Nino this winter.

That doesn't mean the sensible wx can't be similar, but it would probably be for different reasons than those two winters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

How do 2001-02 and 2011-12 work for analogs for the upcoming winter? Serious question, not weenie whining. I'm wondering about the ENSO/El Nino factor. Since I'm not a Met, I don't have the facts at my fingertips.

With the big warm-up coming next week and long-range forecasts for AN fall and winter, I'm curious as to HOW much warmer than average. Is it even possible to make a good guess on that?

Thanks for any serious responses.

I think 2001 was a decent analog last season and I wish I gave it more weight in the mean than I did..it was one of my better sensible weather matches.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and '77-'78 is a brutally cold analog that is unlikely to repeat on temps...though '14-'15 was basically the same DJFM temps as '77-'78...but that was also an extreme season.

If we somehow return to a +PNA pattern that coincides with some arctic blocking, then we're gonna get cold for a time. We just haven't really seen that type of pattern in any type of sustained fashion since 2014-15 save maybe maybe Dec 2017/early Jan 2018 and Jan 2022....we had some shorter stints in Dec 2020 and 2nd half of Jan 2019 that helped cause the record breaking cold outbreak that month, but these have been the exception rather than the overwhelmingly -PNA rule with lower arctic blocking.

Yea, that incorporation of GW into the background of these analogs is tacit AFAIC...I am on record as not debating that point.

[J Paul Gordon]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

'01-'02 and '11-'12 are terrible ENSO analogues. '01-'02 at least was coming off a 3-year La Nina like this year was, but it was a neutral ENSO year whereas we're gonna in a potent El Nino this winter.

That doesn't mean the sensible wx can't be similar, but it would probably be for different reasons than those two winters.

Thanks for the reply and the explanation. I well remember 77-78 and who could forget 014-15?

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Thanks for the reply and the explanation. I well remember 77-78 and who could forget 014-15?

Actually who could forget 77-78 too..if of course you’re old enough. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It was looking hopeful last Winter and Spring that we were turning to more +PNA, now it seems like -PNA is coming back... 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It was looking hopeful last Winter and Spring that we were turning to more +PNA, now it seems like -PNA is coming back... 

what?  last winter was a monster -PNA almost the entire winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The way it was evolving was phase-descending. 

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The way it was evolving was phase-descending. 

Winter was long over at that point though. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ENSO subsurface usually correlates with the pattern. Last Winter it didn't.. still in the Spring, it looked like we were heading toward a +PNA 4-year evening-out. I just think it's veered more -PNA recently. Natural gas last Winter fell from 10.0 to 2.8 (market was surprised by the Nina conditions). 

[Typhoon Tip]

Well... if we get a big snow month, I'd be more impressed if the individual events were something more dense than 29::1 snow ratios  

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... if we get a big snow month, I'd be more impressed if the individual events were something more dense than 29::1 snow ratios  

Pretty rare up here.

[MJO812]

[stadiumwave]

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