sebastiaan1973 Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-forecast-polar-vortex-el-nino-qbo-strong-impact-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said: https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-forecast-polar-vortex-el-nino-qbo-strong-impact-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Loving it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 20 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: My concern, and I'm just giving you my opinion, is that the niño won't couple because the atmosphere and ocean are out of sync currently acting more like a weak niño despite the strong niño. If the -qbo will help get a blockier pattern established this winter, I say bring it on!! For SNE, there are worse things than having the el nino act weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 22 hours ago, MJO812 said: It's coming If we are just considering el nino seasons, than its 1986 and 2009...not close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 17 hours ago, MJO812 said: Loving it All these weenie articles come out every winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All these weenie articles come out every winter. That isn't a weenie site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 Isn't that Mark guy the idiot from PA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For SNE, there are worse things than having the el nino act weak. Yeah I'd sign the dotted line right now if the MEI came in between 0.5-1.0 for the winter. Honestly, the weenie scenario is the MEI keeps lagging in that 0.5 range into December so we get less El Nino influence that month (thus helping the chances for colder/snowier solutions) and then it climbs more for Jan/Feb so we can get the great second half that often occurs with +ENSO. But my guess is still a mild December for now...I think the MEI will rise a decent amount over the next 2 months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Isn't that Mark guy the idiot from PA? Yea, he is a tool....I'm talking about the severe weather link from Europe. That guy is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, he is a tool....I'm talking about the severe weather link from Europe. That guy is legit. No idea who he is. Not sure I buy a cold Conus outside of the typical areas in Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd sign the dotted line right now if the MEI came in between 0.5-1.0 for the winter. Honestly, the weenie scenario is the MEI keeps lagging in that 0.5 range into December so we get less El Nino influence that month (thus helping the chances for colder/snowier solutions) and then it climbs more for Jan/Feb so we can get the great second half that often occurs with +ENSO. But my guess is still a mild December for now...I think the MEI will rise a decent amount over the next 2 months. Any feedback on that text I sent yesterday? I know there must be some weak/shitty high placement, but you have a better memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: No idea who he is. Not sure I buy a cold Conus outside of the typical areas in Ninos. He didn't say a cold CONUS....he said normal to slightly below south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 I saw two big wooly caterpillars over the weekend. One was all black with no brown stripe at all (crappy winter). The other was almost all brown with just a tip of black on both ends (good winter). They cancel each other out=average winter. Tons of acorns (good winter). Bee hives not high up but in the ground (crappy winter). They cancel each other out=average winter. that's my scientific analysis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 Scooter in bright and early to piss in everyone’s Cheerios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Any feedback on that text I sent yesterday? I know there must be some weak/shitty high placement, but you have a better memory. Are you talking about a 984 low on the BM where it was too warm for snow? That happened almost exactly in the 2/24/98 storm. Though you asked about early February and that is late February. I don't think there's been too many, 2/10/10 was basically a sub-980mb sitting on the BM but that brutal northern edge ate into our precip and we got that massive bust. It was cold enough, but the truly heavy precip never made it to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Are you talking about a 984 low on the BM where it was too warm for snow? That happened almost exactly in the 2/24/98 storm. Though you asked about early February and that is late February. I don't think there's been too many, 2/10/10 was basically a sub-980mb sitting on the BM but that brutal northern edge ate into our precip and we got that massive bust. It was cold enough, but the truly heavy precip never made it to us. Or even just a system with poor high placement/lack of high so that it was a modest event. Doesn't have to be "zero" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He didn't say a cold CONUS....he said normal to slightly below south. The article mentions qbo impact cold conus so I took it from there. I didn’t read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Scooter in bright and early to piss in everyone’s Cheerios Just commenting on the article headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He didn't say a cold CONUS....he said normal to slightly below south. Well then that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Are you talking about a 984 low on the BM where it was too warm for snow? That happened almost exactly in the 2/24/98 storm. Though you asked about early February and that is late February. I don't think there's been too many, 2/10/10 was basically a sub-980mb sitting on the BM but that brutal northern edge ate into our precip and we got that massive bust. It was cold enough, but the truly heavy precip never made it to us. Ideally, a weak high leading to a run-of-the-mill event with a low 980s near BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well then that makes sense. I recommend that site....good reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 I don't see anything wrong with the title, either...it says "starting to trend colder"...not "cold". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't see anything wrong with the title, either...it says "starting to trend colder"...not "cold". Yeah after you click on it. Not what was posted. In any case, just let there be a decent antecedent airmass and not 925-850 0C isothermal already 12 hrs before the storm hits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah after you click on it. Not what was posted. In any case, just let there be a decent antecedent airmass and not 925-850 0C isothermal already 12 hrs before the storm hits. Yea, I think they configure it that way so that the article shows up in all of the most highly searched "buzz" words. I see what you mean. Its a shame they have to disguise a worthwhile piece as an AMWX post from @MJO812in order to attract readers....speaks volumes about our society. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I think they configure it that way so that the article shows up in all of the most highly searched "buzz" words. I see what you mean. Its a shame they have make a worthwhile piece looks like an AMWX post from @MJO812in order to attract readers....speaks volumes about out society. lol Just sucked Anthony in like a donut into his mouth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ideally, a weak high leading to a run-of-the-mill event with a low 980s near BM. Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005....lol. I hated that one...prob some convective feedback robbing us and that was probably possible because of weakish fronto dynamics. 12/29-30/2012 was one too....kind of fast moving, no great high. But it was a mundane warning event. Low went sub-984 as it crossed BM to east of CHH. 1/31/84 is a good one too...not quite 984mb, but it went sub-990mb. Mundane event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005....lol. I hated that one...prob some convective feedback robbing us and that was probably possible because of weakish fronto dynamics. 12/29-30/2012 was one too....kind of fast moving, no great high. But it was a mundane warning event. Low went sub-984 as it crossed BM to east of CHH. 1/31/84 is a good one too...not quite 984mb, but it went sub-990mb. Mundane event. What happened there? Very weak high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What happened there? Very weak high? Yeah there was basically no high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 Ray what's your goal with the weak high question? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 I hope they all take that track all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now