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2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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20 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

My concern, and I'm just giving you my opinion, is that the niño won't couple because the atmosphere and ocean are out of sync currently acting more like a weak niño despite the strong niño. If the -qbo will help get a blockier pattern established this winter, I say bring it on!!

For SNE, there are worse things than having the el nino act weak.

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51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For SNE, there are worse things than having the el nino act weak.

Yeah I'd sign the dotted line right now if the MEI came in between 0.5-1.0 for the winter.

Honestly, the weenie scenario is the MEI keeps lagging in that 0.5 range into December so we get less El Nino influence that month (thus helping the chances for colder/snowier solutions) and then it climbs more for Jan/Feb so we can get the great second half that often occurs with +ENSO.

But my guess is still a mild December for now...I think the MEI will rise a decent amount over the next 2 months.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'd sign the dotted line right now if the MEI came in between 0.5-1.0 for the winter.

Honestly, the weenie scenario is the MEI keeps lagging in that 0.5 range into December so we get less El Nino influence that month (thus helping the chances for colder/snowier solutions) and then it climbs more for Jan/Feb so we can get the great second half that often occurs with +ENSO.

But my guess is still a mild December for now...I think the MEI will rise a decent amount over the next 2 months.

Any feedback on that text I sent yesterday? I know there must be some weak/shitty high placement, but you have a better memory.

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I saw two big wooly caterpillars over the weekend.

One was all black with no brown stripe at all (crappy winter). The other was almost all brown with just a tip of black on both ends (good winter).  They cancel each other out=average winter. 

Tons of acorns (good winter). Bee hives not high up but in the ground (crappy winter). They cancel each other out=average winter.

that's my scientific analysis.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Any feedback on that text I sent yesterday? I know there must be some weak/shitty high placement, but you have a better memory.

Are you talking about a 984 low on the BM where it was too warm for snow?

That happened almost exactly in the 2/24/98 storm. Though you asked about early February and that is late February. I don't think there's been too many,

 

2/10/10 was basically a sub-980mb sitting on the BM but that brutal northern edge ate into our precip and we got that massive bust. It was cold enough, but the truly heavy precip never made it to us.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Are you talking about a 984 low on the BM where it was too warm for snow?

That happened almost exactly in the 2/24/98 storm. Though you asked about early February and that is late February. I don't think there's been too many,

 

2/10/10 was basically a sub-980mb sitting on the BM but that brutal northern edge ate into our precip and we got that massive bust. It was cold enough, but the truly heavy precip never made it to us.

Or even just a system with poor high placement/lack of high so that it was a modest event. Doesn't have to be "zero" snow.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Are you talking about a 984 low on the BM where it was too warm for snow?

That happened almost exactly in the 2/24/98 storm. Though you asked about early February and that is late February. I don't think there's been too many,

 

2/10/10 was basically a sub-980mb sitting on the BM but that brutal northern edge ate into our precip and we got that massive bust. It was cold enough, but the truly heavy precip never made it to us.

Ideally, a weak high leading to a run-of-the-mill event with a low 980s near BM.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see anything wrong with the title, either...it says "starting to trend colder"...not "cold".

Yeah after you click on it. Not what was posted. 
 

In any case, just let there be a decent antecedent airmass and not 925-850 0C isothermal already 12 hrs before the storm hits. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah after you click on it. Not what was posted. 
 

In any case, just let there be a decent antecedent airmass and not 925-850 0C isothermal already 12 hrs before the storm hits. 

Yea, I think they configure it that way so that the article shows up in all of the most highly searched "buzz" words. I see what you mean. Its a shame they have to disguise a worthwhile piece as an AMWX post from @MJO812in order to attract readers....speaks volumes about our society. lol 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think they configure it that way so that the article shows up in all of the most highly searched "buzz" words. I see what you mean. Its a shame they have make a worthwhile piece looks like an AMWX  post from @MJO812in order to attract readers....speaks volumes about out society. lol 

Just sucked Anthony in like a donut into his mouth.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ideally, a weak high leading to a run-of-the-mill event with a low 980s near BM.

Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005....lol. I hated that one...prob some convective feedback robbing us and that was probably possible because of weakish fronto dynamics.

12/29-30/2012 was one too....kind of fast moving, no great high. But it was a mundane warning event. Low went sub-984 as it crossed BM to east of CHH.

1/31/84 is a good one too...not quite 984mb, but it went sub-990mb. Mundane event.

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44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005....lol. I hated that one...prob some convective feedback robbing us and that was probably possible because of weakish fronto dynamics.

12/29-30/2012 was one too....kind of fast moving, no great high. But it was a mundane warning event. Low went sub-984 as it crossed BM to east of CHH.

1/31/84 is a good one too...not quite 984mb, but it went sub-990mb. Mundane event.

What happened there? Very weak high?

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