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2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn’t much stock in any of the seasonal models yet. If they are still all agreeing with eachother in November then I think there’s probably some predictive skill….but there’s been so many times they just shat the bed. 
 

Just the fact that we have this consensus in the face of a supposed super-east based el nino is telling IMO.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just the fact that we have this consensus in the face of a supposed super-east based el nino is telling IMO.

Yeah they are definitely “seeing” something. But it’s hard to weight it too much this far out. If it stays that way when November updates are coming out, then I’ll be more intrigued. 

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3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

I'll take that and run...its not frigid by any stretch, but its warm over AK and the arctic. Slightly above normal here works assuming above average precip.

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13 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Does anyone care about this anymore, or has it been discredited?

ims2023260_asiaeurope.gif

There's been statements if not papers that defamed the usefulness but I'm not sure if it really means it's futile, or if it's just come into contention...etc.

I noticed myself years ago, that the recovery "rate" more so than the scalar aspects at any given point along the way, was perhaps a better metric and parlayed favorably.   But I haven't been using that/stopped because there's been so much disruption ( winters just behavior errant wrt to traditional leading planetary indicators) over the last decade ... doesn't seem a the 'speckle/white' counts on that coarse image would really be as telling. 

That all said and just off the top of the head, that seems pretty paltry relative to the Septembers climo from prior -.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's coming 

Screenshot_20230924_101353_X.jpg

Screenshot_20230924_101346_X.jpg

My concern, and I'm just giving you my opinion, is that the niño won't couple because the atmosphere and ocean are out of sync currently acting more like a weak niño despite the strong niño. If the -qbo will help get a blockier pattern established this winter, I say bring it on!!

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