2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They are correlated....if you go back and look at a lot of my work, I break them down and pretty distinctive.

I'll take some time to go back and review your previous works. I know you do a phenomenal job laying everything out and breaking it down. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

so essentially, modoki is when the core anomalies are located within the western side of the ENSO region (applying to both EL Nino and La Nina)

Yes. The Japanese are very specific and technically, the la nina/el nino anomalies need to be confined to the western zone, but I am not that restrictive with it.

Modoki actually means "same, but different" in Japanese...the word is intended to distinguish between two very disparate evolutions between modoki events and their canonical counterpart.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. The Japanese are very specific and technically, the la nina/el nino anomalies need to be confined to the western zone, but I am not that restrictive with it.

Modoki actually means "different" in Japanese...the word is intended to distinguish between two very disparate evolutions between modoki events and their canonical counterpart.

This is so helpful. 

I am going to go back and look at my printouts of SSTA's for all LA Nina/EL Nino events and just study them harder and more closely. I would agree, you can't be too restrictive with definitions because you're not going to get "perfect" matches. This is especially true with those modoki events (which I think I understand so much better now)...it's difficult to ever get the core anomalies well into the far western edge of the defined ENSO region. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is so helpful. 

I am going to go back and look at my printouts of SSTA's for all LA Nina/EL Nino events and just study them harder and more closely. I would agree, you can't be too restrictive with definitions because you're not going to get "perfect" matches. This is especially true with those modoki events (which I think I understand so much better now)...it's difficult to ever get the core anomalies well into the far western edge of the defined ENSO region. 

Inadequate sample sizes are our largest adversary with respect to seasonal forecasting, so it seems counterintuitive to formulate criteria so restrictive as to exacerbate the issue..its like biting your nose off to spite your face. Seasonal forecasting needs to improve and emphasizing the sample size issue only acts to stagnate it IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You can't be too rigid and restricted when you endeavor to try a seasonal forecast....its really like an art to me. You have to use the work of others as a general template, but you develop your own style and methodology. Its probably the one oasis where creativity is rewarded within a sea of number crunching science.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Inadequate sample sizes are our largest adversary with respect to seasonal forecasting, so it seems counterintuitive to formulate criteria so restrictive as to exacerbate the issue..its like biting your nose off to spite your face. Seasonal forecasting needs to improve and emphasizing the sample size issue only acts to stagnate it IMO.

1000% agreed. This is the mindset everyone needs to have and consider. We will also encounter evolutions we've never seen before just b/c there is in infinite number of potential outcomes. One big example of this was the notion that we couldn't get KU's during La Nina's b/c it had "never happened"   Well early 2010's had something to say about that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

1000% agreed. This is the mindset everyone needs to have and consider. We will also encounter evolutions we've never seen before just b/c there is in infinite number of potential outcomes. One big example of this was the notion that we couldn't get KU's during La Nina's b/c it had "never happened"   Well early 2010's had something to say about that.

...and this season taught us how to avoid KUs with -8SD NAO blocks.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

...and this season taught us how to avoid KUs with -8SD NAO blocks.

This season further emphasized that when it comes to the NAO (and this can be used for PNA, EPO, etc). it has way more to do whether the index is positive or negative, it's all about evolution, structure, and where the core of the anomalies are within the domain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This season further emphasized that when it comes to the NAO (and this can be used for PNA, EPO, etc). it has way more to do whether the index is positive or negative, it's all about evolution, structure, and where the core of the anomalies are within the domain. 

The index states give us general correlations and are very useful, but this is why long term forecasting is so difficult....we can't see the "noise" at extended leads, so we need to guess based upon the larger scale features. The noise can make a pretty damn good seasonal effort look pretty bad. This is what happened to me this year, IMO.....I was right about the periods of blocking, but how was I supposed to know that the block would lock the December SW in a room with the PV in W Canada and throw away the key....how was I to know that an imperfect phase would result in a March nipple low, robbing dynamics and aiding WAA. I was right about the PNA going more + in January, but how was I to know that it would be so west-based to act as an RNA and the PV would be trapped in Eurasia? The answer is you can't, however, had I correctly diagnosed the character of la nina  as a modoki, I def would have hedged towards more unfavorable outcomes.

This is why its so important to nail the large scale features because those are the "empty netters" that mother natures affords you, which help top inform the noise... miss those and you are toast-

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The index states give us general correlations and are very useful, but this is why long term forecasting is so difficult....we can't see the "noise" at extended leads, so we need to guess based upon the larger scale features. The noise can make a pretty damn good seasonal effort look pretty bad. This is what happened to me this year, IMO.....I was right about the periods of blocking, but how was I supposed to know that the block would lock the December SW in a room with the PV in W Canada and throw away the key....how was I to know that an imperfect phase would result in a March nipple low, robbing dynamics and aiding WAA. I was right about the PNA going more + in January, but how was I to know it would be more most west-based ever and the PV would be trapped in Eurasia? The answer is you can't, however, had I correctly diagnosed the character of la nina  as a modoki, I def would have hedged towards more unfavorable outcomes.

This is why its so important to nail the large scale features because those are the "empty netters" that mother natures affords you because they help top inform the noise... miss those and you are toast-

I don't disagree with anything you said here. This is exactly why IMO getting too detailed with seasonal outlooks and long-range forecasting can ultimately bite you. There is absolutely no way to diagnose or predict the noise. Ultimately, it's going to be the noise which influences the details of a season. For anyone who partakes in seasonal forecasting, the best course of action is to probably do an initial outlook which focuses on pattern and evolution and incorporating all the variables...and then over the course of the season follow up forecasts are done which can focus more on the noise and details. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't disagree with anything you said here. This is exactly why IMO getting too detailed with seasonal outlooks and long-range forecasting can ultimately bite you. There is absolutely no way to diagnose or predict the noise. Ultimately, it's going to be the noise which influences the details of a season. For anyone who partakes in seasonal forecasting, the best course of action is to probably do an initial outlook which focuses on pattern and evolution and incorporating all the variables...and then over the course of the season follow up forecasts are done which can focus more on the noise and details. 

I do that monthly, but the original product is graded as is....I lay it out, and grade as is. However, I was in a bad habit of ignoring ENSO once winter began...focusing on medium range threats and missing the forest through the trees, so to speak. I am pissed because had I glanced at the ENSO region by the new year, I would have said that we were in trouble. It was clear by the end of January that this was a modoki event.

Last time I do that.

[512high]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ray, Thanks for this, now I get it!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, 512high said:

 

Phil, think of the forcing and resultant patterns as a garden hose....shake it, and there is a ripple effect of opposing patterns. In the atmosphere, this is the case vertically up through the atmosphere (vertical velocity), east to west in longitude (Rosby waves), and north to south in latitude (Hadley cell). Basically, you don't want canonical el nino or modoki la nina because as you can see in the schematic that I posted, these place convection near South America, which usually results in more troughing due north (Hadley cell) over the west coast. This favors (rosby wave) ridging over us and is more hostile for blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you look at the schematic, regular el nino and modoki la nina have warmer SST anomalies near S America, which causes convection and lifting at the surface (descent a loft) and sets the whole Hadley/Rosby wave train in motion. This is why tropical convection and the placement there of is so important.

Modoki el nino and regular la nina have cooler water near S America and focus convection fruther to the west, which is more favorable. Sometimes la nina has it too far west, so modoki la nina is expecially favorable because its usually near the dateline, which is prime time for us in terms of favorable Hadley/Rosby wave train.

[512high]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Phil, think of the forcing and resultant patterns as a garden hose....shake it, and there is a ripple effect of opposing patterns. In the atmosphere, this is the case vertically up through the atmosphere (vertical velocity), east to west in longitude (Rosby waves), and north to south in latitude (Hadley cell). Basically, you don't want canonical el nino or modoki la nina because as you can see in the schematic that I posted, these place convection near South America, which usually results in more troughing due north (Hadley cell) over the west coast. This favors (rosby wave) ridging over us and is more hostile for blocking.

Diagram was perfect! Thanks!!

[George001]

On 3/28/2023 at 10:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do that monthly, but the original product is graded as is....I lay it out, and grade as is. However, I was in a bad habit of ignoring ENSO once winter began...focusing on medium range threats and missing the forest through the trees, so to speak. I am pissed because had I glanced at the ENSO region by the new year, I would have said that we were in trouble. It was clear by the end of January that this was a modoki event.

Last time I do that.

Yeah, the Nina moving west killed us. I remember seeing your analog composite for modoki Ninas and they were really warm, correct me if I’m wrong but arent moderate-strong modoki Nina’s just as unfavorable as super ninos? If anything this winter was worse than 2015-2016, we had less snow for sure and I’m pretty sure this winter was warmer too. Locally it was a lot like 2011-2012. I know we don’t always see eye to eye but I’m with you on being excited about this upcoming El Niño event. Just gotta avoid the super nino and we have a shot at a decent winter. After the disaster that was the 2022-2023 “winter”, im just looking for winter to feel like winter, doesn’t need to be anything special. 

[George001]

Btw Ray what’s your early thoughts on the strength of this nino based on the latest data? My gut instinct is it gets very strong, but not quite super nino. Something like +1.8 ONI, but it’s based off a surface level comparison of this year and similar years in the past. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, George001 said:

Btw Ray what’s your early thoughts on the strength of this nino based on the latest data? My gut instinct is it gets very strong, but not quite super nino. Something like +1.8 ONI, but it’s based off a surface level comparison of this year and similar years in the past. 

Moderate to low-end strong, but I don't think it will remain east-based.

The uber-strong el nino events are actually the most hostile ENSO state.

[weatherwiz]

One big key to watch moving into and through the summer will be the PDO and whether the developing EL Nino has an impact on the PDO. The PDO is currently in a very negative state (which likely has been enhanced by the 3-year Nina), but we've also been in a dominant cool phase since 1999 (though there was a brief period where we flipped positive...ENSO influenced). 

Anyways, it is very feasible to have an EL Nino state coincident with a -PDO:

1911-1912

1914-1915

1919-1920

1923-1924

1951-1952

1953-1954

1968-1969

1972-1973

2004-2005

2006-2007

2018-2019

Also @40/70 Benchmark where did you get this graphic? Was going back and re-reading your winter outlook. This is sick

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Canadian kind of resembles 1957 in the ENSO region, but the PDO doensn't look as high.

 

 

 

 

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Best match all around is probably 1972-1973, but the fact that 1957-1958 is similar in the ENSO region confirms my suspicion that that ENSO el nino orientation, as depicted is not a death knell in and of itself...just need to hope the Pacific gets a little better than that model suggests.

 

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks to be like the length of these decadal -PDO cycles is usually anywhere from about 5-10 years. And we look to have begun this one in about 2017, so while it is possible we are about ready to end it, its more likely that we have a couple of years left statistically speaking. That said, a shift to warm ENSO is ordinarily the impetus for change. Whether or not this one flips it is likely the difference between a 1957-1958 type of evolution, or a 1972-1973.

 

 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Assuming el nino is not heavily east biased, extra tropical influences on the polar domain will also be of the utmost importance. If we can muster up some intense episodes of blocking like we did this past season, then we should be okay. 1972-1973 was void of that, and 1957-1958 was defintely not....so again, this tells me that the character of el nino, as depicted on the Canadian, is not prohibitive to the development of high latitude blocking during the ensuing cold season.

 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I couldn't care any less about what the Canadian has over the polar domain for winter at this lead time....has about as much value to me as 99.9% of the posts in OT.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

One big key to watch moving into and through the summer will be the PDO and whether the developing EL Nino has an impact on the PDO. The PDO is currently in a very negative state (which likely has been enhanced by the 3-year Nina), but we've also been in a dominant cool phase since 1999 (though there was a brief period where we flipped positive...ENSO influenced). 

Anyways, it is very feasible to have an EL Nino state coincident with a -PDO:

1911-1912

1914-1915

1919-1920

1923-1924

1951-1952

1953-1954

1968-1969

1972-1973

2004-2005

2006-2007

2018-2019

Also @40/70 Benchmark where did you get this graphic? Was going back and re-reading your winter outlook. This is sick

I was just saying the same thing in the main forum thread...hadn't read this lol

I didn't cite that source? Shit...I usually do.

A significant cooling event continues in the Stratosphere due to the large Water Vapor cloud, but can it impact the upcoming Winter Season? » Severe Weather Europe (severe-weather.eu)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Paul, the main determinant in those winters you listed is blocking....my point above is that a basin wide ENSO event is not prohibitive to that. We have two avenues to avoiding yet another terd....flip the PDO and/or get blocking. 1972-1973 is one end of the spectrum with a basin wide el nino (two swings/two misses), and 1957-1958 is the other (two swings/two hits). The smart early money is that we hit on one and miss one.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just saying the same thing in the main forum thread...hadn't read this lol

I didn't cite that source? Shit...I usually do.

A significant cooling event continues in the Stratosphere due to the large Water Vapor cloud, but can it impact the upcoming Winter Season? » Severe Weather Europe (severe-weather.eu)

 

I'll have to check the main thread but reading your snippets here we essentially have the same thinking. I was beginning to further explore the PDO yesterday and was doing some reading on it. It was the first time in probably a decade I had read up on the PDO and the amount of research in that time on it has been pretty impressive. I cam across this paper which was phenomenal. It focuses more on PDO/summer temperature lead-time, but it has great information in there.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00237-7#Fig1

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will say one thing, give us this past year's blocking episodes next year and we will do okay. I know the PDO will be less hostile and its very likely that our luck will, as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'll have to check the main thread but reading your snippets here we essentially have the same thinking. I was beginning to further explore the PDO yesterday and was doing some reading on it. It was the first time in probably a decade I had read up on the PDO and the amount of research in that time on it has been pretty impressive. I cam across this paper which was phenomenal. It focuses more on PDO/summer temperature lead-time, but it has great information in there.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00237-7#Fig1

I'll have to look at it during the off season....I need to stop. I'm starting to ramp up before I want to lol

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will say one thing, give us this past year's blocking episodes next year and we will do okay. I know the PDO will be less hostile and its very likely that our luck will, as well.

Oh man...put this year's blocking onto next year and I would think we totally cash in. We'll see how the PDO evolves over the summer, naturally it should become less hostile with emerging ENSO, but we'll see. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the most impressive multi decadal shift to -PDO since the 50's.....so maybe we can get a 57-58 redux like we almost got a March 1956 redux. 1972-1973 was the inverse of this....ENSO induced -PDO interval in the midst of a larger +PDO multi decadal canvass. Here, we are due for a +PDO interruption to the larger scale -PDO, so coupled with the crude logic of being mindful of my unprecedented string of 5 consecutive well below average snowfall seasons, I am inclined to hedge towards a 1957-1958 outcome. Then again,  the 1950s also featured a a stretch of about 5.5 years with NO +PDO months.....and we snuck one in at the end of 2019, so who knows...

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the most impressive multi decadal shift to -PDO since the 50's.....so maybe we can get a 57-58 redux like we almost got a March 1956 redux. 1972-1973 was the inverse of this....ENSO induced -PDO interval in the midst of a larger +PDO multi decadal canvass. Here, we are due for a +PDO interruption to the larger scale -PDO, so coupled with the crude logic of being mindful of my unprecedented string of 5 consecutive well below average snowfall seasons, I am inclined to hedge towards a 1957-1958 outcome.

There is quite a bit of debate regarding the recent PDO behavior. Some believed that the PDO did flip to a positive regime there in the mid 2010's, however, I think that was related to ENSO state then a PDO shift. But of course this can't be said with certainty. Cool phases tend to dominate for longer periods then warm phases so was it an abrupt flip to warm then cool or has ENSO state been a driving factor? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is quite a bit of debate regarding the recent PDO behavior. Some believed that the PDO did flip to a positive regime there in the mid 2010's, however, I think that was related to ENSO state then a PDO shift. But of course this can't be said with certainty. Cool phases tend to dominate for longer periods then warm phases so was it an abrupt flip to warm then cool or has ENSO state been a driving factor? 

I don't think the larger scale multi decadal cycle flipped....if you look throughout history, there are smaller scale ENSO induced flips in the midst of the overall multi decadal canvass. That is what that was...not sure how there is any debate after these past few years.