2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What was 2018-19?

18 was when we got half a foot of snow the week before thanksgiving and it stuck around right through 

That was a Nina that almost acted like

Nino. 
 

That winter pulled a lot out of its ass around our area.

[WinterWolf]

18-19 wasn’t to good here overall. Ya the November storm/snow was nice.  But it ended up below normal here I believe(nothing like this years past abortion), but below normal. 

[George001]

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

18-19 wasn’t to good here overall. Ya the November storm/snow was nice.  But it ended up below normal here I believe(nothing like this years past abortion), but below normal. 

I hated 18-19 even though it wasn’t terrible in my area snow wise. The storm track was way north pretty much the entire winter and when we finally got a big storm in March it melted in a couple of days. After last years disaster all Im hoping for is one big storm, a few little ones (enough to get us to average snow) and enough cold to give us a solid month of snowcover this year. Doesn’t need to be huge, just an average New England winter (which will feel great after getting nothing last year).

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

18-19 wasn’t to good here overall. Ya the November storm/snow was nice.  But it ended up below normal here I believe(nothing like this years past abortion), but below normal. 

I recall not alot of snow but quite a few cold snaps that year. My dad an I made a bunch of ice sculptures by turning on the hose and spraying stuff for days on end till they became fortresses. Honestly, ill take snow or cold. Both are fun to observe and track.

[roardog]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a Nina that almost acted like

Nino. 
 

That winter pulled a lot out of its ass around our area.

Wasn’t 18-19 a Nino? The two previous winters were Nina I believe. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

Wasn’t 18-19 a Nino? The two previous winters were Nina I believe. 

Yes, but it never coupled...acted like a la nina.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, but it never coupled...acted like a la nina.

Oh I thought it was Nina. It definitely didn't act like one initially.

[CoastalWx]

18/19 got a little lucky around these parts. Was heading for a meh winter before the March snow bomb. There were some fun events that year. The nearly 6" snow event that gave Jay 1.5" of slush at BOS was a rather unique set up away from the water on ESE winds. Then we had that snow to ice here with flash freeze in Jan just before MLK. ORH coldest high since the 50s??

[GCWarrior]

2018-19 was pretty meh out here.  I can’t even remember if we got any of that march storm here.  
 

Snow haters should not look at the pictures from northern Vermont. Massive late March storm.  

[ORH_wxman]

19 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I could go for a front loaded winter too.  I’d be fine trading March for December.  Maybe it’s just anecdotal and not fact, but feels like it’s been a while since we’ve had a good December area-wide.  Of course snowfall climo is weakest in December of the Dec-Mar stretch, but would be nice to buck the trend leading up to the holidays.

We had a decent December in 2020 before the all-timer Grinch storm ruined it. But in terms of pure snowfall, it was a good month...but I know that isn't the only criteria around the holidays.

But yeah, you gotta go back to Dec 2017 for a solid month area-wide....though Dec 2019 was decent for some in SNE...esp interior MA. During those classic La Nina (or neutral) 2007-2013 years, we seemed to get a good December almost every winter which probably really spoiled us. You could actually extend that back to 2002....between 2002 and 2013, ORH only had 2 Decembers where snowfall was below average....you could maybe count 2004 too but I consider that average since it was only about 1.5 inches below normal.

[ORH_wxman]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

18/19 got a little lucky around these parts. Was heading for a meh winter before the March snow bomb. There were some fun events that year. The nearly 6" snow event that gave Jay 1.5" of slush at BOS was a rather unique set up away from the water on ESE winds. Then we had that snow to ice here with flash freeze in Jan just before MLK. ORH coldest high since the 50s??

Jan 2019 had a daily high of 1F at ORH which tied 1994 for the coldest since Jan 1981 when a high of 0F occurred. Only Jan 1968 (high of -2F) was lower.

The coldest reading since the 1950s was the Feb 2016 -16F reading....you had to go back to Jan 1957 to beat it.

[CoastalWx]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2019 had a daily high of 1F at ORH which tied 1994 for the coldest since Jan 1981 when a high of 0F occurred. Only Jan 1968 (high of -2F) was lower.

The coldest reading since the 1950s was the Feb 2016 -16F reading....you had to go back to Jan 1957 to beat it.

OK that's what I was thinking in my mind. The 2/16 cold snap. Either way, that was brutal in 2019. 

[ORH_wxman]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

OK that's what I was thinking in my mind. The 2/16 cold snap. Either way, that was brutal in 2019. 

The 2019 cold shot had bad wind too. It was a high of 1F with wind. Doesn’t get much worse than that. Jan ‘94 was not as windy iirc but still really nasty. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Does this have any meaning in the eastern ENSO region...or just a short-term blip?

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Does this have any meaning in the eastern ENSO region...or just a short-term blip?

this is part of the transition to a basin-wide event rather than the east-based event that we've had all summer. models have been showing this consistently

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is part of the transition to a basin-wide event rather than the east-based event that we've had all summer. models have been showing this consistently

It’s been a few years since we had a legitimately good pacific for an extended period during the winter. You can maybe argue for a couple weeks in January 2022 but that’s really been it. The nice period of late Jan through mid Feb 2021 was mostly Atlantic-driven with a great NAO block but a -PNA (but that -PNA didn’t dig for oil in Baja CA so it was fine) 

 

Hoping we can get a standing wave near dateline for several weeks this winter. 

[Itryatgolf70]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s been a few years since we had a legitimately good pacific for an extended period during the winter. You can maybe argue for a couple weeks in January 2022 but that’s really been it. The nice period of late Jan through mid Feb 2021 was mostly Atlantic-driven with a great NAO block but a -PNA (but that -PNA didn’t dig for oil in Baja CA so it was fine) 

 

Hoping we can get a standing wave near dateline for several weeks this winter. 

I also believe we had a SSW event in that time frame late Jan through mid February 2021 that allowed for a -ao that was impressive. I must admit that the main cold plunge was further west due to the -pna as well. I'm in the mid south and we had snow falling at 9 degrees, which don't happen here very often.

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s been a few years since we had a legitimately good pacific for an extended period during the winter. You can maybe argue for a couple weeks in January 2022 but that’s really been it. The nice period of late Jan through mid Feb 2021 was mostly Atlantic-driven with a great NAO block but a -PNA (but that -PNA didn’t dig for oil in Baja CA so it was fine) 

 

Hoping we can get a standing wave near dateline for several weeks this winter. 

for the largest EC storms, there is a -PNA on the mean about a week beforehand along with intense Greenland blocking. it’s just not so strong that it overwhelms the pattern 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

18/19 got a little lucky around these parts. Was heading for a meh winter before the March snow bomb. There were some fun events that year. The nearly 6" snow event that gave Jay 1.5" of slush at BOS was a rather unique set up away from the water on ESE winds. Then we had that snow to ice here with flash freeze in Jan just before MLK. ORH coldest high since the 50s??

I got porked in the March event...I remember I thought I was in great shape for that big northern band and it ended up over you and Will. I had like 8".

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s been a few years since we had a legitimately good pacific for an extended period during the winter. You can maybe argue for a couple weeks in January 2022 but that’s really been it. The nice period of late Jan through mid Feb 2021 was mostly Atlantic-driven with a great NAO block but a -PNA (but that -PNA didn’t dig for oil in Baja CA so it was fine) 

 

Hoping we can get a standing wave near dateline for several weeks this winter. 

The Atlantic and polar field will cooperate...I am increasingly convinced of that.

I like what I see.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I got porked in the March event...I remember I thought I was in great shape for that big northern band and it ended up over you and Will. I had like 8".

Yeah that 3/4/19 storm def trended SE pretty decently in the final 24 hours. We never got that little bump back NW with the bands that we often see right at game time. 
 

That was legit stuff though. I think I had 17” and about a foot of that fell in 3 hours. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that 3/4/19 storm def trended SE pretty decently in the final 24 hours. We never got that little bump back NW with the bands that we often see right at game time. 
 

That was legit stuff though. I think I had 17” and about a foot of that fell in 3 hours. 

That began my several year regression pay back following March 2018.

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That began my several year regression pay back following March 2018.

2 days earlier I was giving PF congrats.    One of the more rare events it was like a convective WAA thump and not one of the systems that had a deformation band. Almost like Will's hated 2/28-3/01 2005 deal.

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2 days earlier I was giving PF congrats.    One of the more rare events it was like a convective WAA thump and not one of the systems that had a deformation band. Almost like Will's hated 2/28-3/01 2005 deal.

 

You can see how little NW CCB was present in that....def like a WAA thump running into a brick wall on the NW side. That would be consistent with a dampening upper level wave which I believe this was. It was not amplifying on approach and throwing moisture 400 miles NW....it was getting squeezed which helped wring out that obscene snow in a narrow area.

 

[dryslot]

Fringed in that one up this way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

2 days earlier I was giving PF congrats.    One of the more rare events it was like a convective WAA thump and not one of the systems that had a deformation band. Almost like Will's hated 2/28-3/01 2005 deal.

I am kind of feeling a good, 'ole fashioned interior focused el nino with a good deal of huggers.

[George001]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Atlantic and polar field will cooperate...I am increasingly convinced of that.

I like what I see.

You think it will be an above average snow winter for New England instead of the mid Atlantic?

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, George001 said:

You think it will be an above average snow winter for New England instead of the mid Atlantic?

Odds are the mid Atlantic will see greater anomalies.

[George001]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Odds are the mid Atlantic will see greater anomalies.

Makes sense, they tend to do better in strong and super ninos. If the mid Atlantic is going to get theirs, let’s hope for something similar to 02-03 where both New England and the mid Atlantic has a big winter instead of 09-10 or 15-16 where New England gets screwed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, George001 said:

Makes sense, they tend to do better in strong and super ninos. If the mid Atlantic is going to get theirs, let’s hope for something similar to 02-03 where both New England and the mid Atlantic has a big winter instead of 09-10 or 15-16 where New England gets screwed.

Exactly, but we still need to see what happens with el nino...I still feel like some guidance and people jumped the gun a bit.