2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Does Dec to March mean say 52/53

'51-'52 and '53-'54.

That is just extra tropical Pacific..obvioulsy the seasons vary greatly depending on the polar fields.

[CoastalWx]

Will I get more than 50" of snow? Thanks in advance.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Will I get more than 50" of snow? Thanks in advance.

In our best month? Sure, why not. Strong Nino STJ juiced with a big PNA this winter....

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In our best month? Sure, why not. Strong Nino STJ juiced with a big PNA this winter....

2015 lite enroute.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In our best month? Sure, why not. Strong Nino STJ juiced with a big PNA this winter....

strong Ninos always have one or two monsters... it's a matter of if you can:

1. cash in on the monsters
2. get other light to moderate events sprinkled in 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2015 lite enroute.

2015 will be known as "2024-lite" when we're done.

[forkyfork]

you all need to stop caring about snow

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you all need to stop caring about snow

Why?

[WinterWolf]

37 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you all need to stop caring about snow

We don’t care about it in the summer, fall or spring…but in the winter it snows in SNE. So we enjoy it. 

[brooklynwx99]

we aren't allowed to like things because the earth is burning

that's how all of this is supposed to work

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

2015 lite enroute.

2015 on steroids en route.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we aren't allowed to like things because the earth is burning

that's how all of this is supposed to work

Bad people like snow.

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Bad people like snow.

Lol, Spot on. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we aren't allowed to like things because the earth is burning

that's how all of this is supposed to work

Such silly foolish folks. What total nonsense. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you all need to stop caring about snow

Please Forky, please go on record and say it...."snow is a thing of the past!"

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Please Forky, please go on record and say it...."snow is a thing of the past!"

Just like Al Gore did lmao…

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

In our best month? Sure, why not. Strong Nino STJ juiced with a big PNA this winter....

I do think PNA will be + in the mean.

[Itryatgolf70]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do think PNA will be + in the mean.

Ray, depending on the PDO. Big factor. Hopefully it can turn more neutral instead of raging negative. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Ray, depending on the PDO. Big factor. Hopefully it can turn more neutral instead of raging negative. 

They often aren't entirely in sync...I don't expect them to be this year.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

My unscientific forecast is for the pacific to suck as it always does - hopefully it can be suck “lite”

[Go Kart Mozart]

8 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Just like Al Gore did lmao…

I believe it was leading into the winter of 08-09, when the head of the UKMET office said "snow is a thing of the past".  That winter, the entirety of the British Isles were snow covered for the first time in memory.

A sage once said - "history shows again and again how nature points out the folly of men"

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I believe it was leading into the winter of 08-09, when the head of the UKMET office said "snow is a thing of the past".  That winter, the entirety of the British Isles were snow covered for the first time in memory.

A sage once said - "history shows again and again how nature points out the folly of men"

 

Snowfall has significantly increased in New England as we've gotten warmer. There is an eventual threshold where that stops happening, but don't exactly know where that number is. We do have some unique geography that helps with snow and so far, the increase in moisture has outweighed the warming temperatures. Places like interior Northern New England likely will never see big snowfall decreases because the warming wont be enough up there even through the end of the century. But SNE could...it remains to be seen.

There's also plenty of natural variation on top of underlying warming....we have had pretty warm/snowless periods a long time ago too (think of some periods in 1930s and esp late 1940s/early1950s)...so that is why we try and use longer periods than just a few years to determine whether there's more permanent change....but that is hard this day and age with people wanting to link short term weather events or seasonal numbers to climate change. A lot of these fluctuations are due to larger scale pattern variability like the AO/NAO. We saw this even back in the early 2000s when we had been on a long-ish run of +NAO winters going back to the 1980s....they all said climate change was responsible for the +NAOs.....then all of the sudden right when they published a lot of those papers, the NAO started going more negative culminating in the very negative period from 2009-2013 which prompted a whole new set of papers that claimed lower sea ice was actually responsible for the more frequent -NAO patterns....then of course, the NAO started going more positive again after that, which shows that some of these things are bit too stochastic to be making pronouncements about on short term trends.

[WxWatcher007]

16 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

We don’t care about it in the summer, fall or spring…but in the winter it snows in SNE. So we enjoy it. 

I can’t tell after the last few seasons 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can’t tell after the last few seasons 

Lol…But That will change though(could be this year). I feel an average winter incoming. It all averages out in the end. 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…But That will change though(could be this year). I feel an average winter incoming. It all averages out in the end. 

I feel like an interior winter maybe. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm thinking atmospheric arithmetic ... like (A+b+X+y + ... n)N-term type forcing. 

This go of it, the hemisphere commits to winter gradient/jets and R-wave situation; the result would favor a flat +PNA with fast embedded wave propagation, as well as times of intense ambient wind speeds in mid and upper levels.

Tendency mind you ...  And, that also would be a mean.  Even in the worse seasons, a +PNA can spike intra weekly and get the job done - see February 1995's particularly ongoing putrid winter, then out of nowhere we set up a bombogen Del Marve to interior Maine and we got 10-20" in the interior. 

And it does matter whether a flat PNA --> PNAP occurs in 1900 vs 1950 vs 2000 vs 2023, too.  We have to at some point capitulate to the obvious, namely ... these subsequent seasons are taking place along a warming climate curve, one that is increasingly more logarithmic - meaning accelerating in latter/recent decades.  High analog value synoptic set ups, can result a 1900 snow storm as rain in 2023 ...etc...  

I think we could be storm active ... with quick moving events that may favors rain --> cold transitions. This type of look would not take but a minor adjustment to get those front wall IB snow scenario.. Or, in fairness, rain.

[George001]

So what are we thinking here? Nino goes strong by early September and super by mid October? Or do you guys think it waits until November to become a super nino? The strength of the nino has been increasing rapidly over the past few weeks, in line with the more aggressive guidance.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like an interior winter maybe. 

I’m shocked you feel this way.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

So what are we thinking here? Nino goes strong by early September and super by mid October? Or do you guys think it waits until November to become a super nino? The strength of the nino has been increasing rapidly over the past few weeks, in line with the more aggressive guidance.

I think the distinction between the two is irrelevant since about circa 2004 moving forward

[CoastalWx]

54 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m shocked you feel this way.

We knew last year.