2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will say, looking at the QBO at both 30mb and 50mb levels, there are two el nino seasons that really stand out to me as a dead-ringer match at both levels. That is pretty tough to do, as most years may match at one level, but not both.

Stuff like this and the solar activity will be relatively important this season given the meek signal given by the ENSO analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its looks to me from that data that @griteaterposted concerning solar activity, referenced above, that there is a clear signal for negative NAO this winter given the ascending activity nearing solar max.

[WinterWolf]

Ray, wasn’t it a record -PNA last year too..trough into Mexico city(ok maybe just Baja) lol a lot of the time.   

[brooklynwx99]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ray, wasn’t it a record -PNA last year too..trough into Mexico city(ok maybe just Baja) lol a lot of the time.   

yeah there was great blocking in Dec and Mar... the Dec blocking was picked up quite well by analogs

just got ruined by a mix of awful luck and an insane -PNA. this year should not feature that -PNA, so blocking will be far more beneficial combined with the STJ

I'm pretty confident in blocking given the Nino state as well as the -QBO

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Ray, wasn’t it a record -PNA last year too..trough into Mexico city(ok maybe just Baja) lol a lot of the time.   

No, it wasn't a record -PNA....though it was decidedly negative. However, it essentially acted like a record -PNA because we had a modest +PNA in January that was biased to the west, therefore it was fraudulent in that it actually bolstered the trough over the west and essentially acted like a robust neg PNA. 

The DM value belies how the pattern truly behaved.

This was another part of the forecast that I nailed, but got punished for it, anyway....I called for a PNA recovery in January and the atmosphere was like, yea, here it is....300 miles west-

#upyours

[MJO812]

Mike Masco thinks this will be a cold and snowy winter for the east. He likes what he sees right now .

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Typhoon TipReading up a lot on solar modulation of the polar domain and the relationship actually harkens back to the Archambault research in that its more about modularity, rather than mode...ie its about whether or not we are descending or ascending, as max vs min isn't a huge deal.

Interesting-

Working on a write up regarding the possible behavior of the polar domain this season because that is where the answers will be found.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This clears up why some seasons approaching solar max like 1957-1958 and 2014-2015 were great and why 18-19 and 19-20 near solar min were duds.

[40/70 Benchmark]

There are also some cases where ENSO can override, like 2011-2012, 1997-1998 and 2002-2003.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’m just adding this as it seems related , not sure his “record”

 

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Typhoon TipReading up a lot on solar modulation of the polar domain and the relationship actually harkens back to the Archambault research in that its more about modularity, rather than mode...ie its about whether or not we are descending or ascending, as max vs min isn't a huge deal.

Interesting-

Working on a write up regarding the possible behavior of the polar domain this season because that is where the answers will be found.

Yes. Goes back to my post about how you see adjustments in the atmosphere as we shuffle towards Nina or Nino and not necessarily whether we are in a Nina or Nino. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m just adding this as it seems related , not sure his “record”

 

Hope he’s wrong 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hope he’s wrong 

If the forcing doesn't change, I can assure you he will be.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Typhoon TipReading up a lot on solar modulation of the polar domain and the relationship actually harkens back to the Archambault research in that its more about modularity, rather than mode...ie its about whether or not we are descending or ascending, as max vs min isn't a huge deal.

Interesting-

Working on a write up regarding the possible behavior of the polar domain this season because that is where the answers will be found.

What does “@typhoon_tip” mean 

we’re you addressing me ? not sure if that’s an accident of the interface 

It comes back to A ≠ B  ... weather happens (ie, gradient is the difference between A and B ), vs the A = B test state ... nothing happening. 

“modularity” is the actual event(s) moving the  A ≠ B state toward the A = B  

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What does “@typhoon_tip” mean 

we’re you addressing me ? not sure if that’s an accident of the interface 

It comes back to A ≠ B  ... weather happens (ie, gradient is the difference between A and B ), vs the A = B test state ... nothing happening. 

“modularity” is the actual event(s) moving the  A ≠ B state toward the A = B  

Yes, because we have often discussed how the movement of the NAO is more important for storm diagnostics than the mode. I am finding the same is true with respect to the solar cycle as a predictor of the wintertime polar domain. This is because its not so much linked by the drivers that we use to define the solar min and max, such as UV, total soler irradiance and sunspots, but rather geomagnetic activity and solar wind that are more linked with the behavior of the polar fields. These peak during solar flux, which lags AFTER solar max by a few years.

[Allsnow]

12 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hope he’s wrong 

Same….

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

not sure what Webb is even talking about. i’m praying this verifies. deep trough once into Jan with forcing near the dateline? sign me up

[Go Kart Mozart]

I guess I understand what Webb is thinking.  In investing, they say "don't fight the Fed".  Often when the Fed cranks up interest rates, the market continues to rise, and people say "this time is different"!

But in the end, the market gets whacked down and the Fed wins.  He is thinking east-based Nino will win in the end.  Normally I would agree with him, but I have to respect the opinions of others on this board who know a lot more than me when they say "this time is different".  I don't know what to expect.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I guess I understand what Webb is thinking.  In investing, they say "don't fight the Fed".  Often when the Fed cranks up interest rates, the market continues to rise, and people say "this time is different"!

But in the end, the market gets whacked down and the Fed wins.  He is thinking east-based Nino will win in the end.  Normally I would agree with him, but I have to respect the opinions of others on this board who know a lot more than me when they say "this time is different".  I don't know what to expect.

 

Our sample size is poor on these things which is really the inhibiting factor. I’m fairly skeptical of a big winter at the moment for reasons Webb says, but I’m also not projecting nearly as much confidence as some of these people because we’re talking about a very limited sample of similar ENSO events…and so far, this one is not behaving atmospherically like any of the SST analogs. 
 

Will that end up mattering? I don’t know the answer to that and my guess is most LR forecasters don’t either. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I guess I understand what Webb is thinking.  In investing, they say "don't fight the Fed".  Often when the Fed cranks up interest rates, the market continues to rise, and people say "this time is different"!

But in the end, the market gets whacked down and the Fed wins.  He is thinking east-based Nino will win in the end.  Normally I would agree with him, but I have to respect the opinions of others on this board who know a lot more than me when they say "this time is different".  I don't know what to expect.

 

All I am trying to say is that I see why this time can be different...I also see how it won't end up different. It could go either way.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

If Will is concerned, I’m concerned. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If Will is concerned, I’m concerned. 

If JB or Brooklyn99 ever calls for less snow then I’ll be worried 

[George001]

I guess it could be different, but based on how previous east based ninos and super ninos behaved I am concerned. Betting against historical precedent expecting things to be different this time usually doesn’t work out. This is true for most things. I hope im wrong, but I don’t like our odds of having even an average winter never mind a big one this year. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I guess it could be different, but based on how previous east based ninos and super ninos behaved I am concerned. Betting against historical precedent expecting things to be different this time usually doesn’t work out. This is true for most things. I hope im wrong, but I don’t like our odds of having even an average winter never mind a big one this year. 

but this is literally different than every nino in history. historical precedent isn’t as meaningful as it usually is

[Go Kart Mozart]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

but this is literally different than every nino in history. historical precedent isn’t as meaningful as it usually is

History shows again and again, how nature points out the folly of men....

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our sample size is poor on these things which is really the inhibiting factor. I’m fairly skeptical of a big winter at the moment for reasons Webb says, but I’m also not projecting nearly as much confidence as some of these people because we’re talking about a very limited sample of similar ENSO events…and so far, this one is not behaving atmospherically like any of the SST analogs. 
 

Will that end up mattering? I don’t know the answer to that and my guess is most LR forecasters don’t either. 

You had been optimistic.....what changed?

I am increasingly optimistic. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, George001 said:

I guess it could be different, but based on how previous east based ninos and super ninos behaved I am concerned. Betting against historical precedent expecting things to be different this time usually doesn’t work out. This is true for most things. I hope im wrong, but I don’t like our odds of having even an average winter never mind a big one this year. 

Reassess after I drop my next blog.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

but this is literally different than every nino in history. historical precedent isn’t as meaningful as it usually is

I mean, there is an easy path for this winter to suck...not desputing that. But the Pacific would need to change and I am not seeing much guidance suggests that it will. I think overall, we are going to continue in a shitty cycle for several more years, but this season is our reprieve.

[ORH_wxman]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You had been optimistic.....what changed?

I am increasingly optimistic. 

I'm a little concerned about a roaring PAC STJ sort of juicing up with the PJ off the west coast. Some of the seasonal guidance tries to show this. I only said I'm a little bit skeptical of a big winter....not that the winter will be a full ratter. If we got something a little better than '97-'98, it would be a decent winter in New England (different story further south).

 

That said, if we continue to see no sign of forcing migrating eastward into the autumn, then I'd start getting more optimistic for something bigger this winter. A juiced PAC jet with forcing near the dateline with modest blocking would be pretty awesome to roll the dice on here.

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm a little concerned about a roaring PAC STJ sort of juicing up with the PJ off the west coast. Some of the seasonal guidance tries to show this. I only said I'm a little bit skeptical of a big winter....not that the winter will be a full ratter. If we got something a little better than '97-'98, it would be a decent winter in New England (different story further south).

 

That said, if we continue to see no sign of forcing migrating eastward into the autumn, then I'd start getting more optimistic for something bigger this winter. A juiced PAC jet with forcing near the dateline with modest blocking would be pretty awesome to roll the dice on here.

One thing I noticed in the weekly cpc enso updates is that their model sst forecast graphics have consistently showed the WPAC cooling into the autumn, and then warming back up into the winter months. 

If it pans out like this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see VP/forcing migrate to the east into fall (watch the forum write this winter off as another ratter)… and then migrate back west. Could mean a torchy first half with an interesting second backloaded half.