2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I do have had a ton of shriveled nuts already on me chiny-chin-chin.

Older is more experienced.

[George001]

Im not expecting this to happen, but you know what would be funny? If we do end up getting a super nino, but somehow get a big winter anyways. That would break the brains of a lot of posters on this board, including myself.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, George001 said:

Im not expecting this to happen, but you know what would be funny? If we do end up getting a super nino, but somehow get a big winter anyways. That would break the brains of a lot of posters on this board, including myself.

Not me....look at 2015-2016 in the mid atlantic.....hell, look at 1965-1966 everywhere.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Regardless of whether its warm, the ceiling will be high.....especuially over the mid atlantic.

[CoastalWx]

15/16 at least was somewhat respectable here. I've had a lot worse. Like last year lol. 15/16 was like watching the girl you always had a crush on, walk away with someone else...but at least she turned around and flashed you.

[CoastalWx]

Those were the two April events. Late season boobies.

[MJO812]

On 8/4/2023 at 10:30 AM, CoastalWx said:

15/16 at least was somewhat respectable here. I've had a lot worse. Like last year lol. 15/16 was like watching the girl you always had a crush on, walk away with someone else...but at least she turned around and flashed you.

That winter was only 1 huge storm here ( 30 inches )

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF looks great too

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF looks great too

I think we should look at the seasonal stuff at this time last year and see which ones were remotely close to what ultimately happened this past winter imo

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I think we should look at the seasonal stuff at this time last year and see which ones were remotely close to what ultimately happened this past winter imo

I think we should ask a bunch of cats 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF looks great too

Watch out, some young kid might accuse you of making an incorrect forecast. 

[George001]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF looks great too

I’m hoping for a 2002-2003 outcome. Not interested in a mid Atlantic winter like 2009-2010 or 2015-2016. This run looks decent though, getting the precip up into SNE.

[WinterWolf]

10 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think we should ask a bunch of cats 

Pretty much Pickles…..lmao. 
 

But I guess at least it’s showing something decent…but then again it did last year too. Roll the dice right. 

[SnoSki14]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m hoping for a 2002-2003 outcome. Not interested in a mid Atlantic winter like 2009-2010 or 2015-2016. This run looks decent though, getting the precip up into SNE.

The seasonal is focusing on the western forcing despite a strong eastern tilted Nino. 

I'm betting we see a lot of conflicting signals though. It won't be a one size fits all option. I definitely think it looks more promising than last year though.

[Allsnow]

On 8/4/2023 at 10:30 AM, CoastalWx said:

15/16 at least was somewhat respectable here. I've had a lot worse. Like last year lol. 15/16 was like watching the girl you always had a crush on, walk away with someone else...but at least she turned around and flashed you.

PAC jet going to be a problem this winter…

[George001]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

PAC jet going to be a problem this winter…

There is still time for things to change but yeah things look really bad right now for winter prospects in New England. Super nino sucks, statistically it is the least favorable ENSO state for New England. Hopefully the models are wrong about the strength of the El Niño.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

PAC jet going to be a problem this winter…

It's August 

[brooklynwx99]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

There is still time for things to change but yeah things look really bad right now for winter prospects in New England. Super nino sucks, statistically it is the least favorable ENSO state for New England. Hopefully the models are wrong about the strength of the El Niño.

no they don’t 

way better than it looked last year. last year looked like shit and boy did  it deliver 

[mreaves]

On 8/5/2023 at 12:05 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF looks great too

You know, the more I look at these, especially January and February, the more they make the phrase “clown maps” come to life. 

[MJO812]

Get ready !

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/farmers-almanac-declares-the-brrr-is-back-with-predicted-snowy-weather-in-winter-outlook?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2h4ZpOdPgWU06UHY4FeStUAhlHmuqLX2ZPeUSUgB89PDWqX6Ip7pLrtwo

[Go Kart Mozart]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Get ready !

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/farmers-almanac-declares-the-brrr-is-back-with-predicted-snowy-weather-in-winter-outlook?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2h4ZpOdPgWU06UHY4FeStUAhlHmuqLX2ZPeUSUgB89PDWqX6Ip7pLrtwo

Talking about ACATT....all the time and everywhere.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 8/5/2023 at 12:05 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF looks great too

...

I've always a reserved a bit of curiosity as to how exactly those seasonal outlooks are framed/initialized, and then run.

I don't think they are merely the ensemble means and or operational version ... cut loose for 1,800 hours ... Come back in the next morning, set coffee down, enter UN/PW and open the in-house API that renders the output to U/I in order to dopamine what has to be the biggest bun and weinerschnitzel job that's ever existed in the dragon realm of dweebdom: getting paid to do that.

Or maybe that's all it is... Let the models just run for several hours and see what they come up with.

But, I cannot help but suspect they are conditioning the input parameters and perturbing the general physics around some other longer/fuller integrated stuff.  So .. whatever runs is more adulterated with theoretical aspects, ultimately less organic. 

Which then the cynic and perhaps even arrogance to my own hypothesis kick in and I get annoyed.  LOL

Seriously though, I just wonder if that is a ENSO by-product causing that mid latitude girdle of lower geopotential heights.  The other aspect that sticks out to me is that the warm heights dominate the whole globe. If it weren't for that ring around the PV look ... there would be very little offsetting negative regions.  That's what really sticks out to me, not the 'avenue to still get our entertaining winter'  ... I digress.

Anyway, are we to also suppose the PV warm heights to mean -AO ... ?   Lot of opportunity for experimentation this year.  The ENSOs may be quieted by CC/warming the ambient mid latitudes - then absorbing that forcing ( some...). There is also a correlation with the Phase 7,8,1,2 of the MJO ... with the -AO ( lags notwithstanding). Should these also falter?  It seems the circuitry in these index relationships may be getting stretched if not cut at times.  If that is so, this product suite above might have the right idea 30 years ago ... oops.  

Then we can get into the over active Solar storm year preceding - that's correlated to +AO actually...

It just comes back to 'how is this model constructed.'   It'll be interesting to see how all these correlations perform this year.

[ORH_wxman]

11 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no they don’t 

way better than it looked last year. last year looked like shit and boy did  it deliver 

The funny thing is most of the long range guidance didn’t show much of a -AO/NAO in December last year. The month still sucked but it was “for the wrong reasons”. 
 

That’s part of the problem with seasonal forecasting….the AO/NAO are stochastic enough in nature that guidance can’t really predict them accurately which makes it a problem being accurate in the winter pattern for the northeast. 

[weatherwiz]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The funny thing is most of the long range guidance didn’t show much of a -AO/NAO in December last year. The month still sucked but it was “for the wrong reasons”. 
 

That’s part of the problem with seasonal forecasting….the AO/NAO are stochastic enough in nature that guidance can’t really predict them accurately which makes it a problem being accurate in the winter pattern for the northeast. 

Blocking is going to be he bigtime wildcard this winter. If we can get any favorable blocking winter is going to deliver. There is no doubt in my mind on that. 

I've never really followed those long-range climo models before so I don't really know anything about them, but for some of them to be showing that degree of blocking (which I would assume would be top percentile type stuff) has to be extremely encouraging. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/5/2023 at 2:12 PM, mreaves said:

Watch out, some young kid might accuse you of making an incorrect forecast. 

I have noticed more and more both on this site social media, that you will make a comment in like April and people will latch onto it call it a forecast several months later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no they don’t 

way better than it looked last year. last year looked like shit and boy did  it deliver 

I don't think the pattern was a slam-dunk ratter last year...anything less than a record -PDO, and we would have had a decent winter. Its pretty tough to forecast that magnitude of an anomaly in a seasonal forecast, since they are usually smoothed products, akin to an ensemble mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/6/2023 at 12:17 AM, griteater said:

Yeah factoring in solar with the Strat PV and AO/NAO can get a bit tricky.  The classic combo for a weak PV and -AO/-NAO is when the lower strat QBO is neg and we are in solar min with respect to both solar flux and geomag, which is typically right after the official solar minimum (years like 76-77, 86-87, 09-10).

In lieu of that, I like this simple chart which shows how the strat PV tends to have early warming events during -QBO in both Solar Min and Solar Max conditions, with mid or late winter strat warmings favored during +QBO. 

"....In early winter (November–December), the most disturbed, and most variable, composites are the two QBO/E phase composites. In midwinter however (January–March), the two composites showing most disturbances in midwinter are the Smin /E and Smax /W composites. The disturbed nature of the Smax /W composite thus supports earlier evidence that the Holton Tan relationship is disrupted in Smax years." Source: Solar and QBO Influences on the Timing of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 61 Issue 23 (2004) (ametsoc.org)

 

 

Also, I like the chart in this paper where it shows that the Declining phase of the solar cycle is where the highest NAO values have typically occurred.  This would be the time period of highest solar geomag just after solar sunspot / solar flux max (I suppose we are either in the Ascending or Maximum phases for this winter).  "...Figure 7 verifies the unique nature of the declining phase, the only phase having a mean NAO index (0.46±0.36), which is statistically significantly different from the long-term mean. We note that although the maximum phase has the largest negative mean NAO(−0.20±0.55), which is in agreement with the results depicted in Figure 4, it is not statistically different from the long-term mean. Mean wintertime NAO values during the ascending and minimum phases are close to the long-term mean."  Source: Spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures during different phases of the solar cycle (wiley.com)

 

 

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've always a reserved a bit of curiosity as to how exactly those seasonal outlooks are framed/initialized, and then run.

I don't think they are merely the ensemble means and or operational version ... cut loose for 1,800 hours ... Come back in the next morning, set coffee down, enter UN/PW and open the in-house API that renders the output to U/I in order to dopamine what has to be the biggest bun and weinerschnitzel job that's ever existed in the dragon realm of dweebdom: getting paid to do that.

Or maybe that's all it is... Let the models just run for several hours and see what they come up with.

But, I cannot help but suspect they are conditioning the input parameters and perturbing the general physics around some other longer/fuller integrated stuff.  So .. whatever runs is more adulterated with theoretical aspects, ultimately less organic. 

Which then the cynic and perhaps even arrogance to my own hypothesis kick in and I get annoyed.  LOL

Seriously though, I just wonder if that is a ENSO by-product causing that mid latitude girdle of lower geopotential heights.  The other aspect that sticks out to me is that the warm heights dominate the whole globe. If it weren't for that ring around the PV look ... there would be very little offsetting negative regions.  That's what really sticks out to me, not the 'avenue to still get our entertaining winter'  ... I digress.

Anyway, are we to also suppose the PV warm heights to mean -AO ... ?   Lot of opportunity for experimentation this year.  The ENSO quieting by CC/warming mid latitudes absorbing lower the forcing from that origin ( some...), the correlation with the Phase 7,8,1,2 ... which together correlate with the -AO, these should also falter just from proportionality.  If that is so, this product suite above might have the right idea 30 years ago ... oops.   Then we can get into the over active Solar storm year preceding - that's correlated to +AO actually...

It just comes back to 'how is this model constructed.'   It'll be interesting to see how all these correlations perform this year.

I thought that, as well, but research suggests otherwise.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

As long as it’s not dry and frigid I’ll probably find a way to enjoy this winter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The funny thing is most of the long range guidance didn’t show much of a -AO/NAO in December last year. The month still sucked but it was “for the wrong reasons”. 
 

That’s part of the problem with seasonal forecasting….the AO/NAO are stochastic enough in nature that guidance can’t really predict them accurately which makes it a problem being accurate in the winter pattern for the northeast. 

 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think the pattern was a slam-dunk ratter last year...anything less than a record -PDO, and we would have had a decent winter. Its pretty tough to forecast that magnitude of an anomaly in a seasonal forecast, since they usually smoothed products, akin to an ensemble mean.

Bingo, Will....the seasonal guidance was all ++NAO/AO.....and the DM value ended up just a hair over 0.0....essentially neutral. What happened was that we had the December and March blocking that I had expected, but what I didn't realize was that a record PDO would negate. it...."its like raaaainnnn..on your wedding day".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Blocking is going to be he bigtime wildcard this winter. If we can get any favorable blocking winter is going to deliver. There is no doubt in my mind on that. 

I've never really followed those long-range climo models before so I don't really know anything about them, but for some of them to be showing that degree of blocking (which I would assume would be top percentile type stuff) has to be extremely encouraging. 

I agree.