WinterWolf Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I'd be happy with 50 inches and at least one 15+ incher. I think we all would be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: What is he implying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: What is he implying? He expects the El Nino to strengthen & Region 1 & 2 to warm again & Region 4 to cool, which would look more east based. My thoughts: with that said the forcing has stayed west the entirety of this El Nino. So, if that stays the way the weather pattern will not function like a typical east-based El Nino, which is good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Just now, stadiumwave said: He expects the El Nino to strengthen & Region 1 & 2 to warm again & Region 4 to cool, which would look more east based. My thoughts: with that said the forcing has stayed west the entirety of this El Nino. So, if that stays the way the weather pattern will not function like a typical east-based El Nino, which is good. East based niños aren't cold typically here from what I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: East based niños aren't cold typically here from what I remember Typically, east based El Ninos are warm east, cold west on average. But it's also worth noting there is variation in ENSO events; nothing is cookie cutter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't expect a top 10 snowfall season...just in that sense maybe. Too late. I’m going big for interior SNE and tapering off to average for SE SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 6 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: What is he implying? He is implying that you shouldn't put the clubs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: He is implying that you shouldn't put the clubs away. Golf is pretty much year round in this area now. More and more places are staying open, as long as you are willing to walk. Even when it does snow, it melts in a few days usually anyway. If you don’t mind walking and playing in somewhat chilly weather, you lose probably, at most, like 20 winter days here. Other than that, tee it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 I know wolfie won’t like this, but it’s literally easier to golf in January here now than it is to enjoy outdoor winter activities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Golf is pretty much year round in this area now. More and more places are staying open, as long as you are willing to walk. Even when it does snow, it melts in a few days usually anyway. If you don’t mind walking and playing in somewhat chilly weather, you lose probably, at most, like 20 winter days here. Other than that, tee it up. I played 6 holes tonight. It was 44-45. No wind though so it wasn’t bad. I had a couple of hand warmers in my pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 35 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Golf is pretty much year round in this area now. More and more places are staying open, as long as you are willing to walk. Even when it does snow, it melts in a few days usually anyway. If you don’t mind walking and playing in somewhat chilly weather, you lose probably, at most, like 20 winter days here. Other than that, tee it up. I remember golfing New Years eve here in 2008 or maybe 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 My forecast is 20-30 inches of snow for the Boston area for the 2023-2024 winter. No, not for one storm, for the ENTIRE winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 9 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I know wolfie won’t like this, but it’s literally easier to golf in January here now than it is to enjoy outdoor winter activities Golf courses in my town(we have two, and another 2 just over the boarder in the next town) are pretty much closed once it snows…maybe it’s different out where you are. Unless it’s an unseasonably mild snowless winter(like last year), but that’s the exception not the rule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 10 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I know wolfie won’t like this, but it’s literally easier to golf in January here now than it is to enjoy outdoor winter activities Not angry, but just for perspective, you weren’t enjoying golf in the winter in ‘13, or in ‘14, or in ‘15, or in ’18, or in ‘21. And perhaps you were golfing during and after the blizzard that buried you with 30 plus in ‘22? So I mean let’s be real too. Yes, last year winter was non existent for most of us in SNE(except Hubby and Ineedsnow), but that’s not usually/always the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 10 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Golf is pretty much year round in this area now. More and more places are staying open, as long as you are willing to walk. Even when it does snow, it melts in a few days usually anyway. If you don’t mind walking and playing in somewhat chilly weather, you lose probably, at most, like 20 winter days here. Other than that, tee it up. Only 3 winters since 2008 (when snow depth records started there) have had fewer than 20 days of snow cover at the NWS BOX site....yes, last year was one of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Golf courses in my town(we have two, and another 2 just over the boarder in the next town) are pretty much closed once it snows…maybe it’s different out where you are. Unless it’s an unseasonably mild snowless winter(like last year), but that’s the exception not the rule. It's hard make the decision to open if you can't reliably cover your costs. In 2012 the golf course I was president of decided to open in early April after the record warm March. We brought back staff 3 weeks early, got a few good days in and then the weather turned shitty and we couldn't cover the costs we were incurring. That was a setback for the member owned 9 hole course that has 6 month season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 21 hours ago, stadiumwave said: I know we have this westerly wind event going on, but after looking at all the data it doesn't seem to be having much effect on the SST's. In fact it even appears there's been further warming in 3.4 in the last 15 days, And some further cooling in regions 1 and 2. So the effect may be minimal when all is said and done. Last 15 days: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Honestly my favorite types of storms are those that crush my area in coastal NJ and then continue on to crush you guys. Just that classic coastal bomb with something for everyone. 1/29/22 was outstanding for me at 16 inches given current trends, a bit less so for NYC area to my NNW, but then was a major, major storm for many folks in NE. Also thinking of storms like: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_North_American_blizzard My biggest hope rather than absolute values is just the presence of a fun coastal storm with a wide swath of enjoyment for many in the northeast. Feels like that’s been a missing element the past few winters. And I know many in SNE have been really hurting in recent years, too, so hoping you lot get the goods this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 12 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Golf is pretty much year round in this area now. More and more places are staying open, as long as you are willing to walk. Even when it does snow, it melts in a few days usually anyway. If you don’t mind walking and playing in somewhat chilly weather, you lose probably, at most, like 20 winter days here. Other than that, tee it up. The best rounds are in the cold season. I played twice last ‘winter’. Breezed thru 18 and course conditions were perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Going to re-write my winter outlook...been working on the typing the past few weeks (mostly weekend and evenings) but I got way too carried away explanting things. Almost to the point to where I am mentally exhausted (especially after working). Anyways, part of me believes the EL Nino has already peaked (unless we see some surges in WWB's). Warmer waters in 1+2 are very shallow and any continued upwelling with easterlies will continue to yield colder waters mixing to the sfc in that region (will have to watch for this EL Nino to become modoki, though that probably isn't likely). In terms of tropical forcing west of the dateline, should that continue here are 500mb height anomalies for these events (it should be noted that there are no strong EL Nino's on record with tropical forcing west of dateline (though 1925-1926 was right at the strong threshold). Doesn't mean it can't happen, just stating we haven't seen it. Here are EL Nino winters with T.F. west. (Note: 1939-1940 and 1976-1977 were on the threshold of moderate Nino and match well with 1925-1926) I have a list of years that I'm heavily looking at for analogs, but even those years have variations. One thing I'm noting is many of some of my matches either have strong, evident blocking or a very strong vortex. We have seen many winters the last decade where the PAC held the trump card, however, this winter may be more tied into the Arctic Domain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2023 Author Share Posted October 25, 2023 @weatherwizTold you that you were too detailed lol Yea, this winter comes down to the arctic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @weatherwizTold you that you were too detailed lol Yea, this winter comes down to the arctic. Yup you nailed it I should send you what I have lol. But I know how to make it much shorter so that will be good. This will give me some time too and try to do some work into the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Going to re-write my winter outlook...been working on the typing the past few weeks (mostly weekend and evenings) but I got way too carried away explanting things. Almost to the point to where I am mentally exhausted (especially after working). Anyways, part of me believes the EL Nino has already peaked (unless we see some surges in WWB's). Warmer waters in 1+2 are very shallow and any continued upwelling with easterlies will continue to yield colder waters mixing to the sfc in that region (will have to watch for this EL Nino to become modoki, though that probably isn't likely). In terms of tropical forcing west of the dateline, should that continue here are 500mb height anomalies for these events (it should be noted that there are no strong EL Nino's on record with tropical forcing west of dateline (though 1925-1926 was right at the strong threshold). Doesn't mean it can't happen, just stating we haven't seen it. Here are EL Nino winters with T.F. west. (Note: 1939-1940 and 1976-1977 were on the threshold of moderate Nino and match well with 1925-1926) I have a list of years that I'm heavily looking at for analogs, but even those years have variations. One thing I'm noting is many of some of my matches either have strong, evident blocking or a very strong vortex. We have seen many winters the last decade where the PAC held the trump card, however, this winter may be more tied into the Arctic Domain. Stop looking, we'll take the 1926 look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 On 10/24/2023 at 12:43 PM, WinterWolf said: I think we all would be happy with that. I have 60-70” along 84. The rubber band snaps back favorably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I have 60-70” along 84. The rubber band snaps back favorably. I hope you're right....I just want some snow to play in, even near average would be fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I have 60-70” along 84. The rubber band snaps back favorably. I love the sound of that. I’m certainly thinking average is a good estimate at the moment. But ya…we’ve taken it on the chin WOR, and the last two years have been lean to say the least(last year the worst ever). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I have 60-70” along 84. The rubber band snaps back favorably. 60” Tolland, 70” near you? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 I should have posted this here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2023 Author Share Posted October 26, 2023 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: I should have posted this here It's like the Superstorm shifted 100 mi east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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