stadiumwave Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: We shall see once November arrives if it still indicates that because we have seen great November forecasts turn into non cold winters It's just guidance. Not a forecast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 I wouldn’t much stock in any of the seasonal models yet. If they are still all agreeing with eachother in November then I think there’s probably some predictive skill….but there’s been so many times they just shat the bed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2023 Author Share Posted September 13, 2023 17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn’t much stock in any of the seasonal models yet. If they are still all agreeing with eachother in November then I think there’s probably some predictive skill….but there’s been so many times they just shat the bed. Just the fact that we have this consensus in the face of a supposed super-east based el nino is telling IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just the fact that we have this consensus in the face of a supposed super-east based el nino is telling IMO. Yeah they are definitely “seeing” something. But it’s hard to weight it too much this far out. If it stays that way when November updates are coming out, then I’ll be more intrigued. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2023 Author Share Posted September 13, 2023 6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah they are definitely “seeing” something. But it’s hard to weight it too much this far out. If it stays that way when November updates are coming out, then I’ll be more intrigued. Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 IRI Updated TEMP Probabilities Link: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2023 Author Share Posted September 16, 2023 3 hours ago, stadiumwave said: IRI Updated TEMP Probabilities Link: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ I'll take that and run...its not frigid by any stretch, but its warm over AK and the arctic. Slightly above normal here works assuming above average precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take that and run...its not frigid by any stretch, but its warm over AK and the arctic. Slightly above normal here works assuming above average precip. Same - I’d take near normal in the MA and run to the bank as fast as I can 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 7 hours ago, Terpeast said: Same - I’d take near normal in the MA and run to the bank as fast as I can Near normal just means 34 and rain instead of 35 and rain down here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 https://x.com/wxpatel/status/1703427552537116676?s=42&t=9oYN55kJQkQ18l6qbtT9mw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Does anyone care about this anymore, or has it been discredited? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Does anyone care about this anymore, or has it been discredited? Discredited. No one puts stock in this round here really. Sounds plausible but…means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 13 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Does anyone care about this anymore, or has it been discredited? There's been statements if not papers that defamed the usefulness but I'm not sure if it really means it's futile, or if it's just come into contention...etc. I noticed myself years ago, that the recovery "rate" more so than the scalar aspects at any given point along the way, was perhaps a better metric and parlayed favorably. But I haven't been using that/stopped because there's been so much disruption ( winters just behavior errant wrt to traditional leading planetary indicators) over the last decade ... doesn't seem a the 'speckle/white' counts on that coarse image would really be as telling. That all said and just off the top of the head, that seems pretty paltry relative to the Septembers climo from prior -. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: ...seems pretty paltry relative to the Septembers climo from prior -. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 El Nino and the positive IOD which last one can lead to positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 18 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said: El Nino and the positive IOD which last one can lead to positive NAO. We have a positive IOD right now? Is there a website with a reliable tracking of thie index? Is there any lag between IOD change and NAO change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 23 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: We have a positive IOD right now? Is there a website with a reliable tracking of thie index? Is there any lag between IOD change and NAO change? https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/ Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 High Confidence in Evolution of ENSO Allows for Shift of Focus to Concurrent Sensible Weather | Eastern Mass Weather 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Nice Ray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Surprise, surprise! Typical climo NOAA outlook, yawn. However, not all that dissimilar to the latest IRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: High Confidence in Evolution of ENSO Allows for Shift of Focus to Concurrent Sensible Weather | Eastern Mass Weather Boing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 11 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Boing! I'm not expecting anything obscene up here....but after last season, it will be a breath of fresh air. In the mid Atlantic, all bets are off- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 The only thing left to figure out up here is how much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 6:17 PM, mitchnick said: Here you go 40/70 Benchmark. Stolen from Phillywx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It's coming My concern, and I'm just giving you my opinion, is that the niño won't couple because the atmosphere and ocean are out of sync currently acting more like a weak niño despite the strong niño. If the -qbo will help get a blockier pattern established this winter, I say bring it on!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 Bottom line, after last yrs disaster, the bar is set incredibly low. So anything even somewhat close to normal will seem like a huge deal. A lil over 12 inches of snow for the entire season here last year….unreal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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