2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[CoastalWx]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am kind of feeling a good, 'ole fashioned interior focused el nino with a good deal of huggers.

With a little Dec 03 and PD II. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

With a little Dec 03 and PD II. 

Maybe some January 2022, while we're at it.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe some January 2022, while we're at it.

With undertones of March 2019.  

[CoastalWx]

In all seriousness I do agree of a good interior Nino. Kind of due for those. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

In all seriousness I do agree of a good interior Nino. Kind of due for those. 

Not to mention the bathtub gulfstream.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not to mention the bathtub gulfstream.

I think that probably is more of an issue if we have these garbage nipple lows like last year that flood the area with marine puke. If those lows rapidly intensify because of the Gulf Stream, I think it limits some of the taint to a point with ageo flow.  If we had blocking and not much of a high to the north than yeah...that would be an issue. You'd flood 850 and below with warmer air. 

I could see a few of those lows we had in Dec 02-Jan 03. Huggers. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that probably is more of an issue if we have these garbage nipple lows like last year that flood the area with marine puke. If those lows rapidly intensify because of the Gulf Stream, I think it limits some of the taint to a point with ageo flow.  If we had blocking and not much of a high to the north than yeah...that would be an issue. You'd flood 850 and below with warmer air. 

I could see a few of those lows we had in Dec 02-Jan 03. Huggers. 

This is what I am alluding to...close tracks, as the extreme warmth of the gulf stream could augment ridging a hair.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I am alluding to...close tracks, as the extreme warmth of the gulf stream could augment ridging a hair.

That period from late Dec to beginning of Feb was the worst lol. It was cold, but little snow to show for it. Complete 180 shortly after.

 

PF was dancing nude with his reindeer sweater in those deformation bands by Albany.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think that probably is more of an issue if we have these garbage nipple lows like last year that flood the area with marine puke. If those lows rapidly intensify because of the Gulf Stream, I think it limits some of the taint to a point with ageo flow.  If we had blocking and not much of a high to the north than yeah...that would be an issue. You'd flood 850 and below with warmer air. 

I could see a few of those lows we had in Dec 02-Jan 03. Huggers. 

Last year we couldn't buy even a stale polar high to our north. Doubt we keep up that weird anomaly. Even a marginal polar high in some of those storms last year would've made the entire complexion of winter different as some of those storms wouldve been large snow events much closer to the coast or even right to it.

This is as good a season as any for some positive regression in our source region in SE Canada/NNE for colder temps and right down into much of the northeast....they've been the most anomalous for warmth in the past 8 seasons. No surprise who has been the coldest (that -PNA region from W Canada to N plains/N Rockies)

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last year we couldn't buy even a stale polar high to our north. Doubt we keep up that weird anomaly. Even a marginal polar high in some of those storms last year would've made the entire complexion of winter different as some of those storms wouldve been large snow events much closer to the coast or even right to it.

This is as good a season as any for some positive regression in our source region in SE Canada/NNE for colder temps and right down into much of the northeast....they've been the most anomalous for warmth in the past 8 seasons. No surprise who has been the coldest (that -PNA region from W Canada to N plains/N Rockies)

 

 

 

Run that from 2009

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Run that from 2009

Here's 2008-2015 when we had a lot of colder winters mixed in.

 

 

Total from 2008 to present:

 

 

 

 

You can see southeast Canada is the warmest on both outside of the arctic sea ice regions further north.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's 2008-2015 when we had a lot of colder winters mixed in.

 

 

Total from 2008 to present:

 

 

 

 

You can see southeast Canada is the warmest on both outside of the arctic sea ice regions further north.

Snow cover in Eastern Canada FTW 08 -15

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last year we couldn't buy even a stale polar high to our north. Doubt we keep up that weird anomaly. Even a marginal polar high in some of those storms last year would've made the entire complexion of winter different as some of those storms wouldve been large snow events much closer to the coast or even right to it.

This is as good a season as any for some positive regression in our source region in SE Canada/NNE for colder temps and right down into much of the northeast....they've been the most anomalous for warmth in the past 8 seasons. No surprise who has been the coldest (that -PNA region from W Canada to N plains/N Rockies)

 

 

 

Yea, we have paid the piper...def due for some breaks.

[stadiumwave]

JMA updated its first DJF outlook:

 

**Individual months only go out to DEC on the 3 month outlook. Dec is a typical warmer El Nino Dec. So the above look is very JAN/FEB weighted.

**The look above is very similar to 2002-03:

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA updated its first DJF outlook:

 

**Individual months only go out to DEC on the 3 month outlook. Dec is a typical warmer El Nino Dec. So the above look is very JAN/FEB weighted.

**The look above is very similar to 2002-03:

JMA, EURO and Cansips all lock-in-step.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA updated its first DJF outlook:

 

**Individual months only go out to DEC on the 3 month outlook. Dec is a typical warmer El Nino Dec. So the above look is very JAN/FEB weighted.

**The look above is very similar to 2002-03:

I’d roll the dice

[MJO812]

20 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA updated its first DJF outlook:

 

**Individual months only go out to DEC on the 3 month outlook. Dec is a typical warmer El Nino Dec. So the above look is very JAN/FEB weighted.

**The look above is very similar to 2002-03:

 

[rimetree]

DJF 02-03 produced 75" at the nearest reporting station to me...would gladly take 40 more inches than what I got last winter.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 9/8/2023 at 10:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JMA, EURO and Cansips all lock-in-step.

I’m all in for a high impact WSNE winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m all in for a high impact WSNE winter.

Riding off of the high of your imminent 3rd fantasy title.

[SnoSki14]

On 9/8/2023 at 10:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JMA, EURO and Cansips all lock-in-step.

Oh good maybe my region will get more than 2" this winter.

The winter was so bad that even normies recognized the lack of snowfall and still mention today how last winter it barely snowed. 

Given people's very short memories regarding weather events, that's pretty telling. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Riding off of the high of your imminent 3rd fantasy title.

[MJO812]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Riding off of the high of your imminent 3rd fantasy title.

I'm still mad that I lost 

[MJO812]

[forkyfork]

getting yourself hyped up for winter for months is a good recipe for despair when the inevitable happens

[sebastiaan1973]

Glosea6. 

[MJOatleast7]

16 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

16 hours ago, MJO812 said:

ACE FTW!!

[stadiumwave]

JAMSTEC Updated...big winter like EURO, CanSips, & JMA. UKMET all alone at the moment:

DJF 2m Temps

 

DJF Precip

There's 3 groups of ensembles totalling 108 members.

2 of those groups of ensembles are really cold.

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

[Typhoon Tip]

seems there's always 'big winters' coming from some source or even aggregate cluster of them.

I figure it for being colder than summer at this point... 

There are competing signals in my mind - seein' as anyone et al gives a rats ass.  

1 ) early and late season blocking becoming more prevalent - related to CC forcing circulation modes - are independent of ENSO this, PDO that ..., since 2000.   This tends to promote early cool snaps that are sufficiently cold to be 'winter like' if not supportive of cryo hemisphere.  But they are transient extremes ...tending to waver back warmer than normal.  Basically, the late Oct - mid Dec may succumb to this aspect, and thus ... only seemingly well correlated to ENSO - driving the faux attribution.  At other times, not well correlated looking.

2 ) ENSO warm tends to be wet and warm early, and cold and snowy late?  check that... I thought's what it was.  But the points of number 1 may interfere with that on either ends.

3 ) the mid winter circulation mode of the hemisphere may become velocity saturated with approximately 6 to 10 dm more height gradient between the 60th and 35th .. basically along the seam of the HC and Ferrel latitudes. This has also been a recurrent theme in winters over the past 20 years, regardless of leading indicators. When that happens... it forces the R-waves into configurations that don't match the historical inference for pattern forcing back whence. These modem winters have greater variation and temperature extreme between N and S latitudes.

 

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

JAMSTEC Updated...big winter like EURO, CanSips, & JMA. UKMET all alone at the moment:

DJF 2m Temps

 

DJF Precip

There's 3 groups of ensembles totalling 108 members.

2 of those groups of ensembles are really cold.

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

We shall see once November arrives if it still indicates that because we have seen great November forecasts turn into non cold winters