2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But those are the type of "smaller scale nuances" that a record -PDO leaves you more prone to. That is like saying, "it didn't cut because of the +NAO, it cut because the trough went negative over the Mississippi River".

If we had a run-of-the-mill -PDO, some of those would have worked out.

Maybe. I don’t know if it played a huge part nor do I care. Just don’t give me that crap again. 

[CoastalWx]

I saw a reference for 02-03. I'd kill for that lol. Was a little better over the interior, but at least we had threats from late Oct to April. 

[kazimirkai]

   Hi I'm new here, coming from direct weathers Facebook group but I want to get into some more serious depth and discussion. I found this forum last year and been a lurker for a while over the past few weeks before pulling the trigger on making an account. I'm currently a junior at Stony Brook University studying atmospheric and oceanic sciences and am therefore keen on learning things. To start off with I have one question:

I understand teleconnections and what they do/mean but I've seen plenty of people mention "forcing" like its something different. Can someone please explain to me what forcing is and how it related to teleconnections?

[MJO812]

Cfs cancels winter

[roardog]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cfs cancels winter

That’s it. It’s over. Time for you to start looking forward to longer days and warmer temps. Only 6 months till spring. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, kazimirkai said:

   Hi I'm new here, coming from direct weathers Facebook group but I want to get into some more serious depth and discussion. I found this forum last year and been a lurker for a while over the past few weeks before pulling the trigger on making an account. I'm currently a junior at Stony Brook University studying atmospheric and oceanic sciences and am therefore keen on learning things. To start off with I have one question:

I understand teleconnections and what they do/mean but I've seen plenty of people mention "forcing" like its something different. Can someone please explain to me what forcing is and how it related to teleconnections?

Welcome. Glad to have you.

"Forcing" refers to the concentration of convection over the tropical Pacific, which produces convergence and upward ascent at the surface and divergence/descent alot. This is what sets the rosby wave train in motion and heavily influences the MJO.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

That’s it. It’s over. Time for you to start looking forward to longer days and warmer temps. Only 6 months till spring. 

Pitchers and catchers report....

[WinterWolf]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cfs cancels winter

Pay attention to police work, not the CFS on 9/1. 

[bristolri_wx]

On 9/1/2023 at 6:55 PM, MJO812 said:

Cfs cancels winter

Best sign yet this winter will be better than last year.

[bristolri_wx]

I’ve been following this thread since it began several months ago. I’m not going to say this is a forecast by any means, but I have a good feeling about this upcoming 23/24 winter not being a ratter:

- Transition from La Niña to El Niño.

- Hard to be worse than last season for most areas outside of NNE.

- The weather pattern last several months has been almost the exact opposite of last year.

I know that’s probably as scientific as the farmer’s almanac, but I think there’s a high probability it’s going to end up being the case to at least get average snow and cold in most areas this winter and decent chances to be better.

Let’s return to the more scientific and research driven programming already in progress. 

[DavisStraight]

25 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I’ve been following this thread since it began several months ago. I’m not going to say this is a forecast by any means, but I have a good feeling about this upcoming 23/24 winter not being a ratter:

- Transition from La Niña to El Niño.

- Hard to be worse than last season for most areas outside of NNE.

- The weather pattern last several months has been almost the exact opposite of last year.

I know that’s probably as scientific as the farmer’s almanac, but I think there’s a high probability it’s going to end up being the case to at least get average snow and cold in most areas this winter and decent chances to be better.

Let’s return to the more scientific and research driven programming already in progress. 

We've had four dogs in a row, what are the probabilities of getting 5?

[pasnownut]

On 8/29/2023 at 10:17 AM, ORH_wxman said:

That has to be near record territory. You're not even right near Philly....inland north of Lancaster seems like getting less than an inch is record material....I wonder how much they got in '72-'73 or '97-'98.

While I'm a weather geek, I'm not a stats guy, so I'd defer to my local geeks for that info.  If memory serves, it actually came from Millersville Univ. Dept of met. so I'll call it "credible" 

[George001]

18 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

We've had four dogs in a row, what are the probabilities of getting 5?

Whenever I start using that logic in poker, typically in about 10-15 minutes all my money is gone. 

[brooklynwx99]

new ECMWF seasonal looks like the CanSIPS. strong blocking with split flow after a mild December

[Itryatgolf70]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

new ECMWF seasonal looks like the CanSIPS. strong blocking with split flow after a mild December

Is this your basic el niño pattern, which is warmer early and cooler later in winter?

[brooklynwx99]

new ONI at +1.1 for JJA, but the relative ONI is only +0.57, which is a difference of over half a degree! 

so although this has breached moderate territory, this is still acting more like a weak event... encouraging for winter

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

new ECMWF seasonal looks like the CanSIPS. strong blocking with split flow after a mild December

Nothing gets folks excited on here like a mild December and waiting for winter to arrive.  Already laying down the ground work for “winter is just a couple weeks away on the weeklies.”

Thanks for sharing those.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Nothing gets folks excited on here like a mild December and waiting for winter to arrive.  Already laying down the ground work for “winter is just a couple weeks away on the weeklies.”

Thanks for sharing those.

I expect December to be pretty awful

nobody can really talk after the 2014-15 fiasco with weenie suicides abound in mid-Jan before Boston got 100" of snow in like 6 weeks

[Itryatgolf70]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I expect December to be pretty awful

nobody can really talk after the 2014-15 fiasco with weenie suicides abound in mid-Jan before Boston got 100" of snow in like 6 weeks

2014-15 was a weak niño and this one will be much stronger! We didn't have a -nao but the -epo saved our arses lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Nothing gets folks excited on here like a mild December and waiting for winter to arrive.  Already laying down the ground work for “winter is just a couple weeks away on the weeklies.”

Thanks for sharing those.

Vomit. I’m so sick of punting the first month of two of winter and hoping for a prayer on the back end 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Vomit. I’m so sick of punting the first month of two of winter and hoping for a prayer on the back end 

most winters only have 3-6 weeks of legit activity

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Vomit. I’m so sick of punting the first month of two of winter and hoping for a prayer on the back end 

I could go for a front loaded winter too.  I’d be fine trading March for December.  Maybe it’s just anecdotal and not fact, but feels like it’s been a while since we’ve had a good December area-wide.  Of course snowfall climo is weakest in December of the Dec-Mar stretch, but would be nice to buck the trend leading up to the holidays.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

most winters only have 3-6 weeks of legit activity

Errr maybe for S coast or if you are adding every event and stapling their timeline together ,  but I mean most of this forum averages 50”+

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Errr maybe for S coast or if you are adding every event and stapling their timeline together ,  but I mean most of this forum averages 50”+

for much of coastal NE south of Boston I would say so

[CoastalWx]

44 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Vomit. I’m so sick of punting the first month of two of winter and hoping for a prayer on the back end 

That’s Nino climo usually. There are exceptions, but ninos early on favor interior. Sometimes you can get an early event in interior SE MA like Nov 2002 and 2004. Even 2012 had some events in interior SE MA.

[CoastalWx]

Ninos have a good track record of performing after mid January.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s Nino climo usually. There are exceptions, but ninos early on favor interior. Sometimes you can get an early event in interior SE MA like Nov 2002 and 2004. Even 2012 had some events in interior SE MA.

Yeah seems like those years you try to sneak in a November event and then see you in late Jan.

2012 I recall being a freshman at Bridgewater state and it did snow a few times in Nov. can’t remember if it accumulated much.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ninos have a good track record of performing after mid January.

What was 2018-19?

18 was when we got half a foot of snow the week before thanksgiving and it stuck around right through 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah seems like those years you try to sneak in a November event and then see you in late Jan.

2012 I recall being a freshman at Bridgewater state and it did snow a few times in Nov. can’t remember if it accumulated much.

You would have been a disaster on here in 02/03. Very little aside from an earlier December event until early February. Then we cleaned house.

I had a crusty 1-2” at my house and Lowell had like 2’ otg all of January.

[Damage In Tolland]

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