Itryatgolf70 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 8:15 PM, brooklynwx99 said: this will do just that Expand 500mb charts will be interesting when they come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 I hate to be that guy, but isn’t the super nino + strong -NAO combo not that good for us? I would be concerned about the mid Atlantic cashing in more than us in that pattern. That is actually the biggest reason why I am so pessimistic about this winter. Even if the forcing is somewhat favorable and I am wrong about the NAO, the “good” analogs (1957-1958, 2009-2010, 2015-2016) do not impress me at all. I would take 2017-2018 or 2021-2022 over any of those winters. I haven’t checked the exact numbers, but I would bet March 2018 or Jan 2022 alone were snowier than the entire 2009-2010 winter here, and possibly 2015-2016 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 7:37 PM, MJO812 said: Cansips looks great for winter. It nailed last winter in August lol Expand Did it really? So last August it(Cansips) showed a ratter for SNE on south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 9:49 PM, WinterWolf said: Did it really? So last August it(Cansips) showed a ratter for SNE on south? Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 9:51 PM, brooklynwx99 said: Expand Lol…wow. It was spot on. Thanks Brooklyn99. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 Although whiffed on the PNA. I’d argue that look verbatim would be decent in SNE. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 11:52 PM, CoastalWx said: Although whiffed on the PNA. I’d argue that look verbatim would be decent in SNE. Expand Well we were close a few times to a few decent events…but everything that could go wrong actually did every chance we got. Nipple lows to boot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 7:39 PM, CoastalWx said: Please erase last winter from my memory. Thanks. Expand Seconded. Last winter was absolutely brutal in Maryland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 9:16 PM, George001 said: I hate to be that guy, but isn’t the super nino + strong -NAO combo not that good for us? I would be concerned about the mid Atlantic cashing in more than us in that pattern. That is actually the biggest reason why I am so pessimistic about this winter. Even if the forcing is somewhat favorable and I am wrong about the NAO, the “good” analogs (1957-1958, 2009-2010, 2015-2016) do not impress me at all. I would take 2017-2018 or 2021-2022 over any of those winters. I haven’t checked the exact numbers, but I would bet March 2018 or Jan 2022 alone were snowier than the entire 2009-2010 winter here, and possibly 2015-2016 as well. Expand 2002-2003 and 1986-1987 were fine....as was 1965-1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 11:52 PM, CoastalWx said: Although whiffed on the PNA. I’d argue that look verbatim would be decent in SNE. Expand It was accurate at the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 2009-2010 was an eskimo queef away from being 2002-2003. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 11:52 PM, CoastalWx said: Although whiffed on the PNA. I’d argue that look verbatim would be decent in SNE. Expand That’s not a Ratter look for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 11:52 PM, CoastalWx said: Although whiffed on the PNA. I’d argue that look verbatim would be decent in SNE. Expand I would argue the look that actually verified looked decent, as did many, but alas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 1:48 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: That’s not a Ratter look for sne Expand Neither was reality at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 1:39 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2009-2010 was an eskimo queef away from being 2002-2003. Expand How good was 2002-2003 for y'all up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 2:41 AM, Eskimo Joe said: How good was 2002-2003 for y'all up there? Expand Very good...one of the best ever...like top 10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 2:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Very good...one of the best ever...like top 10. Expand Now that would be an analog worth getting excited about. Below normal temps, above normal snow with a historic blizzard in February. Unfortunately, the moderate 1.3 ONI peak and modoki structure doesn’t look like a great match for the 2023-2024 winter. A good estimate right now is 2.1-2.3 ONI (super). The 65-66 nino was a super nino like this one will be, so that may be a better analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 4:50 AM, George001 said: Now that would be an analog worth getting excited about. Below normal temps, above normal snow with a historic blizzard in February. Unfortunately, the moderate 1.3 ONI peak and modoki structure doesn’t look like a great match for the 2023-2024 winter. A good estimate right now is 2.1-2.3 ONI (super). The 65-66 nino was a super nino like this one will be, so that may be a better analog. Expand The MEI and RONI are...remember you made the point about how strongly last year's la nina acted, despite the modest ONI? Take a look at the MEI. I'm also not sure the forcing will not be modoki like due to how warm the western Pacific and Nino 4 are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 1:48 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would argue the look that actually verified looked decent, as did many, but alas.... Expand PNA was a huge red flag. I know you are referring to the blocking, but that blocking just helped recycle marine garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 1:29 PM, CoastalWx said: PNA was a huge red flag. I know you are referring to the blocking, but that blocking just helped recycle marine garbage. Expand I'm talking about at extended leads....anything less than a record -PDO would have been fine last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 It was clear to me doing the seasonal that there would be some decent blocking....I'll always take my chances with that and do well the vast majority of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 12:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The MEI and RONI are...remember you made the point about how strongly last year's la nina acted, despite the modest ONI? Take a look at the MEI. I'm also not sure the forcing will not be modoki like due to how warm the western Pacific and Nino 4 are. Expand Yes, but I’m expecting the MEI index to peak around +2 (super) as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 2:19 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm talking about at extended leads....anything less than a record -PDO would have been fine last year. Expand He’s talking about the big -PNA(which you call RNA), you’re talking about the -PDO…obviously two different things, but you’re saying the -PDO ruined things too? See I was under the impression that the incredibly -PNA was what hurt us the most. But you’re thinking the -PDO hurt us as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 4:30 PM, WinterWolf said: He’s talking about the big -PNA(which you call RNA), you’re talking about the -PDO…obviously two different things, but you’re saying the -PDO ruined things too? See I was under the impression that the incredibly -PNA was what hurt us the most. But you’re thinking the -PDO hurt us as well? Expand They are both related...the PNA on paper wasn't near record because of the fraud east-based PNA during January, but it essentially acted like on in the seasonal mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 3:08 PM, George001 said: Yes, but I’m expecting the MEI index to peak around +2 (super) as well. Expand Really??? Based on what? Its at 0.3 as of JJ 2023...care to cite an example of it recovering 1.7 between July and winter during a developing el nino? From what I am looking at, it usually rises about .4-.5. I am willing to say maybe 1.5, tops...but don't see 2.0. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 1982, 1991 and 2009 rose .8 from JJ...largest I can find. That would place us at 1.1 as a winter MEI peak. Like I said...I am willing to assume a record recovery and say 1.5 to be safe. I am talking developing el nino....you find greater recoveries in decaying cold ENSO events, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 2:19 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm talking about at extended leads....anything less than a record -PDO would have been fine last year. Expand Maybe I dunno. We seemed to have a lot of that fold over -PNA troughs that were oriented in such a fashion to absolutely pork us too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 5:12 PM, CoastalWx said: Maybe I dunno. We seemed to have a lot of that fold over -PNA troughs that were oriented in such a fashion to absolutely pork us too. Expand That is more bad luck, IMO....I will say that maybe myself, along with others should have factored that in and erred more conservatively as the season progressed, but then you're bordering on persistence forecasting. And by "fine", I mean not historically bad...serviceable...which is all I forecasted last year, despite what snowman19 said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 5:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is more bad luck, IMO....I will say that maybe myself, along with others should have factored that in and erred more conservatively as the season progressed, but then you're bordering on persistence forecasting. Expand Yeah that is more due to smaller scale nuances vs a -PDO. That's all I meant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 9/1/2023 at 5:21 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah that is more due to smaller scale nuances vs a -PDO. That's all I meant. Expand But those are the type of "smaller scale nuances" that a record -PDO leaves you more prone to. That is like saying, "it didn't cut because of the +NAO, it cut because the trough went negative over the Mississippi River". If we had a run-of-the-mill -PDO, some of those would have worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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