2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like we will finally turn the page on la nina and enter el nino.

Just to be clear, this is just early conjecture and I am not claiming that these are viable analogs in anyway....not a forecast.

El nino following triple-dip cool ENSO:

1957, 1976, 1986, 2002, 2014

 

El nino following consecutive cool ENSO adds six more years to the list:

1963, 1968, 1972, 1997, 2009, 2018.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

With any luck at all, the days of cold loading west first are over.

[CoastalWx]

El nino following triple-dip cool ENSO:

1957, 1976, 1986, 2002, 2014

 

Boing oing oing oing oing oing oing. 

[weatherwiz]

I know you don't do anything with prior to 1950 but I'll throw 1911-1912 in your mix as well.

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like we will finally turn the page on la nina and enter el nino.

Just to be clear, this is just early conjecture and I am not claiming that these are viable analogs in anyway....not a forecast.

El nino following triple-dip cool ENSO:

1957, 1976, 1986, 2002, 2014

 

El nino following consecutive cool ENSO adds five more years to the list:

1963, 1968, 1972, 1997, 2018.

 

 

 

2009-10 also followed two consecutive Ninas, one of them strong during 2007-08

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2009-10 also followed two consecutive Ninas, one of them strong during 2007-08

Opps...yep. Goes along with the theme...

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

El nino following triple-dip cool ENSO:

1957, 1976, 1986, 2002, 2014

 

Boing oing oing oing oing oing oing. 

Raindance is mentioning 2012 in the event el nino is a dud...no qualms, there.

[512high]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like we will finally turn the page on la nina and enter el nino.

Just to be clear, this is just early conjecture and I am not claiming that these are viable analogs in anyway....not a forecast.

El nino following triple-dip cool ENSO:

1957, 1976, 1986, 2002, 2014

 

El nino following consecutive cool ENSO adds five more years to the list:

1963, 1968, 1972, 1997, 2018.

 

 

 

Great ! Get this Nina shit out of here! (No offense to my wife, her name is Nina lol) Ray is there a chance come late Fall this trend could go back to "Nina"?

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Great ! Get this Nina shit out of here! (No offense to my wife, her name is Nina lol) Ray is there a chance come late Fall this trend could go back to "Nina"?

we have never ever had four -ENSO years in a row, if that's any consolation. ENSO is a self-destructive process

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we have never ever had four -ENSO years in a row, if that's any consolation. ENSO is a self-destructive process

Almost no chance of getting another La Nina with a subsurface that looks like this

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost no chance of getting another La Nina with a subsurface that looks like this

 

 

yeah that look makes me more inclined to think that we might get the holy grail moderate Modoki this year. all that warmth near the Dateline has to go somewhere. the CanSIPS has a nice evolution with the warmth migrating towards the Dateline as the Nino matures

PDO also becomes neutral, W Atlantic really cools down. I'm honestly quite excited for next winter

 

[512high]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah that look makes me more inclined to think that we might get the holy grail moderate Modoki this year. all that warmth near the Dateline has to go somewhere. the CanSIPS has a nice evolution with the warmth migrating towards the Dateline as the Nino matures

PDO also becomes neutral, W Atlantic really cools down. I'm honestly quite excited for next winter

 

So, is it best for a "weak"  or moderate Nino for snow lovers ?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 512high said:

So, is it best for a "weak"  or moderate Nino for snow lovers ?

New England has typically done the best in weak Nino, but moderate to low end strong has produce plenty of good to great seasons too ('57-'58, '63-'64, '65-'66, '68-'69, '86-'87, '02-'03)

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

New England has typically done the best in weak Nino, but moderate to low end strong has produce plenty of good to great seasons too ('57-'58, '63-'64, '65-'66, '68-'69, '86-'87, '02-'03)

The correlation between ENSO phase and snowfall is too weak IMO to really draw any conclusions (except for maybe strong events...but even with these, the sample size is very small). We've had weak warm/cold events produce good and bad seasons and we've had moderate warm/cold events produce good/bad seasons. I mean speaking straight from a statistical standpoint, as you said weak Nino's tend to be "best" but the correlation isn't enough to say "bank on it". The correlation's seem to have done down a bit too from where they were say 10-20 years ago as the dataset expands and we've been able to expand the historical dataset through reanalysis techniques. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The correlation between ENSO phase and snowfall is too weak IMO to really draw any conclusions (except for maybe strong events...but even with these, the sample size is very small). We've had weak warm/cold events produce good and bad seasons and we've had moderate warm/cold events produce good/bad seasons. I mean speaking straight from a statistical standpoint, as you said weak Nino's tend to be "best" but the correlation isn't enough to say "bank on it". The correlation's seem to have done down a bit too from where they were say 10-20 years ago as the dataset expands and we've been able to expand the historical dataset through reanalysis techniques. 

Yes ENSO is a weak correlation for New England snowfall....I did not specify what it was in my post....I was merely responding to which one has produced the best results for us and that answer is undeniably weak El Nino. I'd definitely not bank on ENSO alone.

IF you filter it for Modoki El Nino though, then it becomes more prolific.

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes ENSO is a weak correlation for New England snowfall....I did not specify what it was in my post....I was merely responding to which one has produced the best results for us and that answer is undeniably weak El Nino. I'd definitely not bank on ENSO alone.

IF you filter it for Modoki El Nino though, then it becomes more prolific.

 

I still don't fully understand Modoki EL Nino. Does this involve or incorporate SSTA's off the west coast of the US?

Also, I think it gets alot harder to correlate EL Nino strength b/c of when EL Nino typically peaks and how rapidly it can weaken. One thing I find interesting is majority of EL Nino events prior to 1960 seemed to remain pretty steadfast through the winter season, but since then there has been a greater tendency for events to rapidly weaken during the late fall/early winter months. I'm actually working on trying to do breakdowns of weak, moderate, strong but finding it a bit challenging. There are also some events which peaked in the late summer/early fall, so do you classify based off peak strength or whatever the strength was maybe in the trimonthly period or two before winter (DJF)? 

[brooklynwx99]

39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I still don't fully understand Modoki EL Nino. Does this involve or incorporate SSTA's off the west coast of the US?

Also, I think it gets alot harder to correlate EL Nino strength b/c of when EL Nino typically peaks and how rapidly it can weaken. One thing I find interesting is majority of EL Nino events prior to 1960 seemed to remain pretty steadfast through the winter season, but since then there has been a greater tendency for events to rapidly weaken during the late fall/early winter months. I'm actually working on trying to do breakdowns of weak, moderate, strong but finding it a bit challenging. There are also some events which peaked in the late summer/early fall, so do you classify based off peak strength or whatever the strength was maybe in the trimonthly period or two before winter (DJF)? 

Modoki is just when the greatest positive anomalies are centered near the Dateline, forcing a deep trough in a really nice spot south of the Aleutians. they're also quite blocky in the Atlantic

Nino 1+2 can also have negative anomalies, but it's often just the least warm portion of the ENSO domain

[brooklynwx99]

forky with the weenies lmao

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, 512high said:

Great ! Get this Nina shit out of here! (No offense to my wife, her name is Nina lol) Ray is there a chance come late Fall this trend could go back to "Nina"?

No.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I still don't fully understand Modoki EL Nino. Does this involve or incorporate SSTA's off the west coast of the US?

Also, I think it gets alot harder to correlate EL Nino strength b/c of when EL Nino typically peaks and how rapidly it can weaken. One thing I find interesting is majority of EL Nino events prior to 1960 seemed to remain pretty steadfast through the winter season, but since then there has been a greater tendency for events to rapidly weaken during the late fall/early winter months. I'm actually working on trying to do breakdowns of weak, moderate, strong but finding it a bit challenging. There are also some events which peaked in the late summer/early fall, so do you classify based off peak strength or whatever the strength was maybe in the trimonthly period or two before winter (DJF)? 

Do peak strength. Modoki is just west based...I think the technical definition is that the el nino anomalies have to be confirmed to the west, but I don't define it that stringently.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah that look makes me more inclined to think that we might get the holy grail moderate Modoki this year. all that warmth near the Dateline has to go somewhere. the CanSIPS has a nice evolution with the warmth migrating towards the Dateline as the Nino matures

PDO also becomes neutral, W Atlantic really cools down. I'm honestly quite excited for next winter

 

It will be modoki IMO.

[weatherwiz]

15 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Modoki is just when the greatest positive anomalies are centered near the Dateline, forcing a deep trough in a really nice spot south of the Aleutians. they're also quite blocky in the Atlantic

Nino 1+2 can also have negative anomalies, but it's often just the least warm portion of the ENSO domain

 

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do peak strength. Modoki is just west based...I think the technical definition is that the el nino anomalies have to be confirmed to the west, but I don't define it that stringently.

Thank you!

This makes tremendous sense then. When I was doing EL Nino structure I found very few events which could be considered west-based. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2009-10 also followed two consecutive Ninas, one of them strong during 2007-08

Corrected that second image to include 2009...obviously augments west coast ridging and NAO blocking a bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Thank you!

This makes tremendous sense then. When I was doing EL Nino structure I found very few events which could be considered west-based. 

 

That criteria is far too restrictive....I will show you my bins after I do it in either April or May....usually having the greatest anomalies predominately west of 150W and some poking west of 180W is good enough for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Paul, check out this season...I consider it a modoki la nina, which is part of the reason why I was too wintry with my outlook. I whiffed on that and thought it would be hybrid with a slight east tilt.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That criteria is far too restrictive....I will show you my bins after I do it in either April or May....usually having the greatest anomalies predominately west of 150W and some poking west of 180W is good enough for me.

I found doing structure for EL Nino to be much more challenging then it was for La Nina's. When you construct yours I'll throw my graphs into the ENSO discussion thread. I was actually going to explore whether assessing tropical forcing would be a better proxy then SSTA's alone. 

This is also something I think the trans-nino index is meant to provide, but I find it understanding the TNI a bit confusing.

[512high]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Paul, check out this season...I consider a modoki la nina, which part of the reason why I was too wintry with my outlook. I whiffed on that and thought it would be east based.

So having a modoki is good? correct? we don't want that to be "strong"......from what I understand, as of "right now" things look better for this coming winter.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Paul, check out this season...I consider it a modoki la nina, which is part of the reason why I was too wintry with my outlook. I whiffed on that and thought it would be east based.

so essentially, modoki is when the core anomalies are located within the western side of the ENSO region (applying to both EL Nino and La Nina)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I found doing structure for EL Nino to be much more challenging then it was for La Nina's. When you construct yours I'll throw my graphs into the ENSO discussion thread. I was actually going to explore whether assessing tropical forcing would be a better proxy then SSTA's alone. 

This is also something I think the trans-nino index is meant to provide, but I find it understanding the TNI a bit confusing.

They are correlated....if you go back and look at a lot of my work, I break them down and pretty distinctive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

So having a modoki is good? correct? we don't want that to be "strong"......from what I understand, as of "right now" things look better for this coming winter.

Modoki el nino is good, modoki la nina is bad. They are reversed since anomalies are opposite.