April 2023 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1991-2020 averages) for these nine locations:

 

DCA NYC BOS  ORD ATL IAH  DEN PHX SEA

 

Contest deadline as always 06z Apr 1st, or late evening of March 31st. Good luck !!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DCA +3.6 NYC +3.8 BOS +3.9 ORD +3.6 ATL +4.0 IAH +3.3 DEN +0.5 PHX +0.0 SEA -1.0

*edited 3-31

[rainsucks]

DCA +1.0

NYC +0.5

BOS -1.0

ORD -5.0

ATL +2.0

IAH +1.5

DEN -2.5

PHX +1.0

SEA -2.0
 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA +2.6

NYC +2.1

BOS +2.2

ORD +1.1

ATL +2.8

IAH +3.1

DEN +0.2

PHX +0.3

SEA -2.3

[wxallannj]

DCA +2.2

NYC +2.2

BOS +1.8

ORD +2.2

ATL +2.1

IAH +2.9

DEN +1.4

PHX +1.5

SEA +1.0

[Rjay]

DCA +2.0

NYC +2.0

BOS  +2.0

ORD +1.5

ATL +2.5

IAH +3.0

DEN +1.0

PHX +1.0

SEA -2.0

[Rhino16]

DCA: +1.8°

NYC: +1.3°

BOS: +1.3°

ORD: +1.3

ATL: +1.8°

IAH: +1.8°

DEN: -0.1°

PHX: -0.2°

SEA: -1.4°

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
 1.6     1.5     1.2       0.3     2.2    1.8       -0.3    -1.5   -2.5 

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +2.2

NYC:  +2.4

BOS:  +1.6

ORD:  +0.7

ATL:  +2.3

IAH:  +2.4

DEN:  +0.3

PHX:  +0.6

SEA:  -1.7

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.7

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.3

ORD: +0.8

ATL: +2.1

IAH: +2.1

DEN: -0.4

PHX: -0.6

SEA: -1.0

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
 1.2      1.1       0.7       -1.6     0.4     1.3        -1.6    -1.3     -1.2 

[Roger Smith]

+2.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 __ +1.8 _ +2.8 _ +3.3 __ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -0.5

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA NYC BOS  ORD ATL IAH  DEN PHX SEA

1.5     1.0     1.0    1.0   1.5   2.0   1.0   1.5    0.5

 

[Tom]

 

 

way late still recovering from multiple surgeries 

DCA +2.1

NYC +1.1

BOS +0.9

ORD -1.1

ATL +1.2

IAH +0.8

DEN -1.1

PHX -0.1

SEA -1.1

[wxdude64]

49 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

 

way late still recovering from multiple surgeries 

DCA +2.1

NYC +1.1

BOS +0.9

ORD -1.1

ATL +1.2

IAH +0.8

DEN -1.1

PHX -0.1

SEA -1.1

Wishing you the best and a speedy recovery!

[Roger Smith]

Tom, I will go easy on the late penalty, in part because you weren't able to post in March. Best wishes and get well soon. Also welcome to rainsucks, and welcome back to Rhino16 and StormchaserChuck. Later in the year I will post pro-rated scoring comparisons to let you know how your average score looks in comparison to the field, although it partly depends on what months you enter, last month's average score was a bit lower than usual. 

 

Table of forecasts for April 2023

 

FORECASTER _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

StormchaserChuck1 _________________+3.6 _+3.8 _+3.9 __ +3.6 _+4.0 _+3.3 ___ +0.5 __ 0.0 _ -1.0

hudsonvalley21 ______________________ +2.6 _+2.1 _+2.2 __ +1.1 __ +2.8 _+3.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.3 _-2.3

wxdude64 ___________________________ +2.2 _+2.4 _+1.6 __ +0.7 _ +1.7 _+2.4 ___ +0.3 _ +0.6 _-1.7

wxallannj ____________________________ +2.2 _ +2.2 _+1.8 __ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +2.9 ___ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

Tom __________ (-2%) _________________ +2.1 _+1.1 _ +0.9 __ -1.1 __ +1.2 _ +0.8 ___ -1.1 __ -0.1 _ -1.1

RJay __________________________________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _ +2.5 _+3.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _-2.0

Roger Smith __________________________+2.0 _+1.8 _ +1.5 __ +1.8 _ +2.8 _ +3.3 __ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -0.5

___ Consensus ________________________+2.0 _+1.5 _ +1.3 __ +1.0 _ +2.1 _ +2.1 __ -0.2 _ -0.1 _ -1.2

Rhino16 _______________________________+1.8 _+1.3 _ +1.3 __ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 __ -0.1 __ -0.2 _ -1.4

BKViking _____________________________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 __ +0.8 _+2.1 _ +2.1 ___ -0.4 _-0.6 _ +1.0

DonSutherland1 ______________________+1.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.3 _+2.2 _+1.8 ___ -0.3 _-1.5 _ -2.5

Scotty Lightning _____________________ +1.5 _ +1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

RodneyS _____________________________ +1.2 _ +1.1 _+0.7 __ -1.6 _ +0.4 _ +1.3 ___ -1.6 _ -1.3 _ -1.2

rainsucks ____________________________ +1.0 _+0.5 _-1.0 ___ -5.0_ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ -2.5 _ +1.0 _ -2.0

___ Normal _____________________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

- - - - - -

___ Persistence _ (mar 2023) __________+1.5 _+1.8 _+2.5 ___-0.2 _+2.4 _+3.4 ___ -5.7 _-4.5 _-2.6

__________________________

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (for forecasters). Normal is coldest for DCA, NYC, ATL, IAH. 

 

 

[wxallannj]

6 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Tom, I will go easy on the late penalty, in part because you weren't able to post in March. Best wishes and get well soon. Also welcome to rainsucks, and welcome back to Rhino16 and StormchaserChuck. Later in the year I will post pro-rated scoring comparisons to let you know how your average score looks in comparison to the field, although it partly depends on what months you enter, last month's average score was a bit lower than usual. 

 

Table of forecasts for April 2023

 

FORECASTER _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

StormchaserChuck1 _________________+3.6 _+3.8 _+3.9 __ +3.6 _+4.0 _+3.3 ___ +0.5 __ 0.0 _ -1.0

hudsonvalley21 ______________________ +2.6 _+2.1 _+2.2 __ +1.1 __ +2.8 _+3.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.3 _-2.3

wxdude64 ___________________________ +2.2 _+2.4 _+1.6 __ +0.7 _ +1.7 _+2.4 ___ +0.3 _ +0.6 _-1.7

Tom __________ (-2%) _________________ +2.1 _+1.1 _ +0.9 __ -1.1 __ +1.2 _ +0.8 ___ -1.1 __ -0.1 _ -1.1

RJay __________________________________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _ +2.5 _+3.0 ___+1.0 _ +1.0 _-2.0

Roger Smith __________________________+2.0 _+1.8 _ +1.5 __ +1.8 _ +2.8 _ +3.3 __ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -0.5

___ Consensus ________________________+1.9 _+1.5 _ +1.3 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +2.1 __ -0.2 _ -0.1 _ -1.3

Rhino16 _______________________________+1.8 _+1.3 _ +1.3 __ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 __ -0.1 __ -0.2 _ -1.4

BKViking _____________________________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 __ +0.8 _+2.1 _ +2.1 ___ -0.4 _-0.6 _ +1.0

DonSutherland1 ______________________+1.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.3 _+2.2 _+1.8 ___ -0.3 _-1.5 _ -2.5

Scotty Lightning _____________________ +1.5 _ +1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

RodneyS _____________________________ +1.2 _ +1.1 _+0.7 __ -1.6 _ +0.4 _ +1.3 ___ -1.6 _ -1.3 _ -1.2

rainsucks ____________________________ +1.0 _+0.5 _-1.0 ___ -5.0_ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ -2.5 _ +1.0 _ -2.0

Normal ________________________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

__________________________

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (for forecasters). Normal is coldest for DCA, NYC, ATL, IAH. 

Roger,  I don't see my forecasts in your list.

 

 

[Tom]

18 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Tom, I will go easy on the late penalty, in part because you weren't able to post in March. Best wishes and get well soon. Also welcome to rainsucks, and welcome back to Rhino16 and StormchaserChuck. Later in the year I will post pro-rated scoring comparisons to let you know how your average score looks in comparison to the field, although it partly depends on what months you enter, last month's average score was a bit lower than usual. 

 

Table of forecasts for April 2023

 

FORECASTER _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

StormchaserChuck1 _________________+3.6 _+3.8 _+3.9 __ +3.6 _+4.0 _+3.3 ___ +0.5 __ 0.0 _ -1.0

hudsonvalley21 ______________________ +2.6 _+2.1 _+2.2 __ +1.1 __ +2.8 _+3.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.3 _-2.3

wxdude64 ___________________________ +2.2 _+2.4 _+1.6 __ +0.7 _ +1.7 _+2.4 ___ +0.3 _ +0.6 _-1.7

Tom __________ (-2%) _________________ +2.1 _+1.1 _ +0.9 __ -1.1 __ +1.2 _ +0.8 ___ -1.1 __ -0.1 _ -1.1

RJay __________________________________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _ +2.5 _+3.0 ___+1.0 _ +1.0 _-2.0

Roger Smith __________________________+2.0 _+1.8 _ +1.5 __ +1.8 _ +2.8 _ +3.3 __ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -0.5

___ Consensus ________________________+1.9 _+1.5 _ +1.3 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +2.1 __ -0.2 _ -0.1 _ -1.3

Rhino16 _______________________________+1.8 _+1.3 _ +1.3 __ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 __ -0.1 __ -0.2 _ -1.4

BKViking _____________________________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 __ +0.8 _+2.1 _ +2.1 ___ -0.4 _-0.6 _ +1.0

DonSutherland1 ______________________+1.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.3 _+2.2 _+1.8 ___ -0.3 _-1.5 _ -2.5

Scotty Lightning _____________________ +1.5 _ +1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

RodneyS _____________________________ +1.2 _ +1.1 _+0.7 __ -1.6 _ +0.4 _ +1.3 ___ -1.6 _ -1.3 _ -1.2

rainsucks ____________________________ +1.0 _+0.5 _-1.0 ___ -5.0_ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ -2.5 _ +1.0 _ -2.0

Normal ________________________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

__________________________

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (for forecasters). Normal is coldest for DCA, NYC, ATL, IAH. 

 

 

Thanks Roger, appreciate it.  Best advice I can give anyone is don't break an ankle in multiple places was told for a full recovery is 12+ months I get to start walking again in 2 weeks, been non weight bearing now for 6 weeks. 

[Roger Smith]

12 hours ago, wxallannj said:

don't see my forecast

Fixed and made slight changes to consensus as a result. 

[Roger Smith]

2022-23 Snowfall Contest current standings

 

Rank _FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total and departure

 

_01 _ Scotty Lightning*___________16.0 _23.0 _ 33.0 __ 44.1 _37.5 _ 81.9 ___ 65.9__5.9 _ 84.0 ____ 391.3 __ 163.3 (53.9)

_02 _ hudsonvalley21 ____________13.2 _ 29.3 _ 46.2 __ 42.8 _44.0 _ 90.0 __ 48.7 _ 8.2 _96.3 ____ 418.7 __ 170.5 (43.8) 

_03 _ so_whats_happening ______ 18.0 _38.0 _ 64.0 __ 45.0 _380_ 110.0 __ 42.0 _11.0 _ 84.0 ____ 450.0 __ 175.2 (30.5) 

_04 _ RodneyS ___________________ 7.4 _ 33.0 _ 50.0 __ 44.0 _48.0 _ 93.0 __ 46.0 _ 7.0 _ 98.0 ____ 426.4 __ 179.8 (44.6)

(05) ____ Consensus _____________16.0 _40.0 _ 55.5 __ 44.1 _ 49.9 _ 93.7 __ 50.0 _ 8.2 _ 90.0 ____ 447.4 __ 191.4 (39.9)

_05 _ DonSutherland1 ____________10.0 _36.0 _ 55.0 __ 45.8 _52.5 _ 95.0 __ 44.0 _ 7.0_ 100.0 ____ 445.3 __ 198.7 (44.6) 

_06 _ Roger Smith _______________22.2 _44.4 _ 55.5 __ 55.5 _66.6_ 133.0 __ 52.0 _15.9 _ 88.8 ____ 533.9 __ 199.3 (0.6)

_07 _ RJay _______________________20.0 _50.0 _ 65.0 __ 31.0 _27.0 _ 86.0 ___ 50.0 _15.0 _ 80.0 ____ 424.0 __ 203.6 (57.7) 

_08 _ wxdude64 _________________19.5 _40.0 _ 58.5 __ 42.8 _50.5 _101.0 ___ 41.6 _ 8.7 _ 104.0 ____466.6 __ 210.6 (39.9)

_09 _ Tom _______________________ 14.2 _ 41.1 _ 49.6 __ 53.9 _ 49.9 _ 93.7 __ 79.2 _ 6.7 _ 81.2 ____ 469.5 __ 216.3 (41.3)

_10 _ BKViking ___________________ 25.0 _52.0 _ 60.0 __ 38.0 _50.0 _90.0 __ 60.0 _18.0_ 90.0 ____ 483.0 __ 234.4 (43.6)

_11 _ George001 _________________ 12.0 _62.0_105.0__ 65.0 _70.0_140.0__ 60.0 _ 8.0_ 130.0____ 652.0 __ 316.2

actual snowfall to Apr 29, 2023 __0.4 __ 2.3 __12.4 __ 20.2 __37.1 __133.6 ___48.9 _ 8.1 _ 72.8 ____ 335.8 total 

Current best forecast ____________(04) __(01) __(01) ___(07) __(01) __ (06) ___(02)_(02,11)_ (07) 

(01 Scotty Lightning has three, (02) hudsonvalley21 has two, (07) RJay has two, (04) RodneyS and (06) Roger Smith have one, and George001 is tied for one with hudsonvalley21 (SEA). Lowest forecasts are best at all but DTW, BUF and SEA. 

======================================

(Mar 4) _ All forecasts are still above actual values for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD and DTW as well as BTV. One forecast is now equal to current total at DEN, otherwise the rest are still above the current value. BUF has passed all but two forecasts (Roger Smith 133.0, George001 has 140.0). SEA has a bit more than half the forecasts, and is between George001 (8.0") and hudsonvalley21 (8.2") with other higher forecasts. 

The table now contains the total error value which in most cases is subject to later decreases, but for those already passed by BUF or SEA, new snowfall will increase these values. 

NOTE: BUF now has no contest implications, further snow will not change differentials, except for myself and George001. I can gain 16.4" (twice my reserve of 8.2") but that would only move my rank (8th) closer to 7th. George001 is too far back to benefit much from further snow at BUF. Probably DEN is the most volatile location for changing ranks. The more reserve you have for DEN, the higher your potential to move ahead -- but that snow has to happen. Seems unlikely that the four northeast locations or Chicago will pass any forecasts, but DTW could still be a factor.

Looks as though Scotty Lightning has the edge, he needs less than 1.0" more at DEN to pass so_whats_happening and then would have a bigger reserve than any chasers, except Tom, and his margin over Tom at DEN would not reverse the outcome. 

Unless there are very heavy snowfalls later in March at other locations, I think DEN will determine the outcome.

 

(Mar 11) _ DTW has now passed RJay and is gradually approaching our cluster near consensus. As a result RJay fell from 5th to 7th. No change at the top because DEN has seen no new snow since last report. 

(Mar 16) _ BUF has now reached the second highest forecast (Roger Smith) so I cannot gain any further ground, a combination of that plus more snow at DTW moved me into 7th and RJay into 8th, otherwise no changes in the scoring order. Scotty awaits any further snow at DEN to move ahead of so_whats_happening who also has 0.5" more to use up as both of our leaders find DTW about to pass them. The net result would be that if DTW does pass both, Scotty will need about 1.8" more at DEN to pass swh. If nothing else changed by then, Scotty has the same forecast for BTV and appears in good shape otherwise. 

(Mar 20) _ DEN added 1.5" snow which moved Scotty Lightning into the lead. If DTW adds a small amount then so_whats_happening could retake the lead unless DEN adds similar amounts. BUF has moved past all but George001 now, but the margin for further gain is only 6.7"x2 or 13.4" which is not enough to change any contest ranks. 

(Mar 28) _ DEN added a further 3.6" and BTV 0.3" in the past week. This has led to a few changes in the contest ranks. Meanwhile, the table is now ordered by contest ranks instead of following the forecast table. The contest is not settled yet. Further snowfall at DTW could move hudsonvalley21 into the lead. However, Scotty Lightning retains more DEN snowfall to use up if the total exceeds 48.7" (hudsonvalley21's prediction). RodneyS also has some potential for gain at DTW, but he cannot pass hudsonvalley21 unless about 9" more falls there. Large late season falls at BTV could also help hudsonvalley21 and RodneyS, as SL and s_w_h have equal forecasts of 84.0", albeit 12" above the current total there, so that advantage would only begin to materialize after 12" more might occur (not too likely from climatology or current model runs). Also RodneyS and hudsonvalley21 have to avoid larger snowfalls at DEN in April or May, as SL has a margin of over 15" and they have recently, or will soon  run out of margin there. Meanwhile so_whats_happening has one faint hope left, which would be April snow at SEA combined with no further snow anywhere else in play (BUF would not matter). I don't see any route to a contest win for those below fourth place although there are mathematical possibilities (that likely will not verify) mostly involving very heavy April snowfalls in the midwest. 

(Apr 4) _ Small additions at BUF and BTV, DEN may add today and tomorrow but not yet changed in table. 

(Apr 11) _ DEN added 0.2" otherwise no changes. Any further changes to table will appear here. 

(Apr 21) _ ORD added 0.4" otherwise no changes. 

(Apr 29) _ DEN added 2.0" recently and ORD, DTW added 0.1" _ no contest rank changes. 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Updated anomalies and projections: 

_____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

11th __ (anom 10d) _________+4.8 _+3.4 _+1.3 __ +3.7 _+2.4 _+0.4 __-2.2 _-3.6 _-4.0

21st __ (anom 20d) ________ +6.8 _+7.2 _+4.5 __ +6.8 _+1.9 _-0.3 __ +1.3 _-0.8 _-5.2

 

11th __ (p anom 20d) _______+9.0 _+8.0 _+6.0 __ +7.0 _+8.0 _+6.0 __+2.0 _ 0.0 _-1.5

11th __ (p anom 27d) _______ +7.0 _+6.0 _+5.0 __ +5.5 _+6.0 _+4.5 __+2.0 _+0.5_-2.0

21st __ (p anom 30d) _______+3.5 _+4.0 _+2.0 __ +3.0 _+0.5 __0.0 __ +2.0 __0.0 _-2.5

30th __ (final  anoms) ______ +3.9 _+3.9 _+2.2 __ +2.0 _+0.3 _-1.9 ___ 0.0 _+1.1 _-2.8

====================

11th _ Looks very warm mid-month in most locations, last week of outlook not as warm but still above normal in most cases. 

21st _ Rest of month looks rather cool except for a strong warming signal in the far west after the weekend. 

30th-1st _ Final anomalies now posted.  

[Roger Smith]

 

Final scoring for April 2023

Scores based on latest provisional end of month anomalies posted above. Late penalties not applied yet.

^ scored by "max 60" rank order scoring (IAH). Normal given raw score of 62.

* scores adjusted for late penalty of 2%

 

 

FORECASTER _______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL

 

wxdude64 ___________________________ 66 _ 70 _ 88 __ 224 __ 74 _ 72 _ 20^ __ 166 __ 390 __ 94 _ 90 _ 78 __ 262 ____ 652

hudsonvalley21 ______________________ 74 _ 64 _100 __ 238 __ 82 _ 50 _ 08^__ 140 __ 378 __ 96 _ 84 _ 90 __ 270 ____ 648

RJay _________________________________ 62 _ 62 _ 96 __ 220 __ 90 _ 56 _ 12^ __ 158 __ 378 __ 80 _ 98 _ 84 __ 262 ____ 640

Rhino16 _______________________________58 _ 48 _ 82 __ 188 __ 86 _ 70 _ 42^__ 198 __ 386 __ 98 _ 74 _ 72 __ 244 ____ 630

___ Consensus ________________________62 _ 52 _ 82 __ 196 __ 80 _ 64 _ 25^__ 169 __ 365 __ 96 _ 76 _ 68 __ 240 ____ 605

DonSutherland1 ______________________ 54 _ 52 _ 80 __ 186 __ 66 _ 62 _ 42^__ 170 __ 356 __ 94 _ 48 _ 94 __ 236 ____ 592

Tom __________ (-2%) _________________63* _63*_ 73*__199 __ 37*_ 80*_ 60^ __ 177 __ 376 __ 76*_ 74*_ 65*__215 ____ 591

wxallannj ____________________________ 66 _ 66 _ 92 __ 224 __ 96 _ 64 _ 16^ __ 176 __ 400 __ 72 _ 92 _ 24 __ 188 ____ 588

StormchaserChuck1 _________________ 94 _ 98 _ 66 __ 258 __ 68 _ 26 _ 04^__ 098 __ 356 __ 90 _ 70 _ 64 __ 224 ____ 580

Scotty Lightning ______________________52 _ 42 _ 76 __ 170 __ 80 _ 76 _ 30^__ 186 __ 356 __ 80 _ 92 _ 34 __ 206 ____ 562

Roger Smith __________________________62 _ 58 _ 86 __ 206 __ 96 _ 50 _ 04^__ 150 __ 356 __ 84 _ 58 _ 54 __ 196 ____ 552

Normal ________________________________22 _ 22 _ 56 __ 100 __ 60 _ 94 _ 62 __ 216 __ 316 __100 _ 78 _ 44 __ 222 ____ 538

BKViking ______________________________56 _ 52 _ 82 __ 190 __ 76 _ 64 _ 25^__ 165 __ 355 __ 92 _ 66 _ 24 __ 182 ____ 537

RodneyS ______________________________46 _ 44 _ 70 __ 160 __ 28 _ 98 _ 54^__ 180 __ 340 __ 68 _ 52 _ 68 __ 188 ____ 528

rainsucks _____________________________ 42 _ 32 _ 36 __ 110 __ 00 _ 66 _ 48^__ 114 __ 224 __ 50 _  98 _ 84 __ 232 ____ 456

- - - - - -

___ Persistence ________________________52 _ 58 _ 94 __ 204 __ 56 _ 58 _ 00 __ 114 __ 318 __ 00 _ 00 _ 96 __ 096 ____ 414
 

__________________________________________________

Extreme forecast report

DCA (+3.9) NYC (+3.9) are wins for StormchaserChuck with warmest forecasts (+3.6, +3.8)

BOS (+2.2) is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.2) and a loss for Stormchaser Chuck (+3.9)

ORD (+2.0) is a shared win for wxallannj (+2.2) and Roger Smith (+1.8) and a loss for Stormchaser Chuck (+3.6). 

PHX (+1.1) is a win for RJay and rainsucks (both +1.0), and loss for wxallannj and Scotty Lightning (both +1.5).

DEN outcome (0.0) was close to consensus and does not qualify.

ATL (+0.3), IAH (-1.9) and SEA (-2.8) wins for RodneyS, Tom, and DonSutherland1 on coldest forecasts, Normal also wins for IAH.

================================================

 

[rainsucks]

wow, looks like I’ll def be taking an L here

[Roger Smith]

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-APR 2023 ---- >>>> === ===

 

Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. Slight adjustments are likely for March scores.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS

 

RJay _______________________257 _254 _ 249 __ 760 __312 _243 _218__ 773 __1533 _ 235 _222 _322 __779 ____2312

DonSutherland1 ___________ 216 _172 _ 234 __ 622 __262 _266 _250 __778 __1400 __217 _242_314 __ 773 ____2173

hudsonvalley21 ____________209 _ 172 _ 273 __ 654 __288 _227 _195 __ 710 __1364 __196 _226 _319 __741 ____2105

wxallannj __________________ 221 _ 216 _ 275 __ 712 __ 295 _212 _228 __735 __1447 _ 195 _238 _ 212__ 645 ____2092

___ Consensus _____________203 _180 _ 253 __636 __259 _190 _215 __ 664 __1300 _ 223 _ 206 _304 __733 ____2033

RodneyS __________________ 156 _ 162 _216 __ 534 __ 195 _185 _248 __ 628 __1162 _ 289 _ 238 _322 __ 849____2011

wxdude64 _________________236 _ 209 _ 240 __ 685 __183 _196 _180 __ 559 __1244 __259 _200 _286 __ 745____1989

Roger Smith _______________ 174 _ 162 _ 238 __ 574 __231 _145 _ 180 __ 556 __1130 __ 195 _192 _276 __ 663 ____1793

BKViking __________________ 198 _ 186 _ 253 __ 637 __227 _176 _ 195 __ 598 __1235 __ 201 _154 _ 192 __547 ____1782

Scotty Lightning ___________ 177 _166 _ 204 __ 547 __205 _183 _214 __ 602 __ 1149 __ 186 _138 _202 __ 526 ____1675

Tom (3/4) __________________153 _138 _ 199 ___ 490 __124 _132 _ 172 __ 428 __ 918 __ 194 _168 _ 211 __ 573 _____1491

___ Normal _________________ 92 __ 86 _144 __ 322 ___156 _146 _156 ___ 458 __ 780 __ 218 _ 176 _ 212 __ 606 ____1386

Stormchaser Chuck (2/4) __181 _184 _ 98 ___ 463 ___161 _ 90 _ 90 ___ 341 __ 804 ___ 138 _154 __158 __ 450 ____1254

Rhino16 (2/4) ______________112 _ 92 _112 ___ 316 ___154 _132 _ 66 ____ 352 __ 668 ___117 __ 78 __156 __ 351 ____ 1019

so_whats_happening (2/4) _ 90 _ 82 _ 138 ___ 310 __ 101 _ 41 _ 134 __ 276 __ 586 __ 98 __ 96 _ 148 __ 342 _____ 928

rainsucks (1/4) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ___ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 

_______________________________________________________

Persistence ________________143 _142 _202 __ 487 ___ 116 _143 _214 __ 473 __ 960 ___ 88 _ 214 _ 224 __ 526 ____1486  

 

 

Best Forecasts

 

* shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not)

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months

 

RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 

DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2*___0 ____2 _ Jan,Mar

hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____0

wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0

RodneyS ___________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____0

wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 _ Apr

Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 

BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Tom (3/4) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

___ Normal _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0

Stormchaser Chuck (2/4) __2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____1*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____1 _ Feb

Rhino16 (2/4) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

so_whats_happening (2/4) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

rainsucks (1/4) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

(hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^

-----------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY

 

So far, 33 of 36 forecasts qualify, 22 of them for warmest, and 11 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3 ... 8 of 33 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. One of those eight is a shared loss. 

 

FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _____ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties)

RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0____ 10-1 _______8.0 - 1

StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 ____ 7-3 _______6.5 - 3

DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 ____ 7-1 _______ 5.5 - 1

RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _____ 4-0 _______ 4.0 - 0

Scotty Lightning _____0.0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* ____ 3-2 _______ 3.0 - 1.5

Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 ____ 2-0 _______1.5 - 0

hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 ____ 2-0 _______1.5 - 0

wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _____ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0

Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _____ 1-0 ______ 1.0 - 0

wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* ___ 1-1 ______ 0.5 - 0.5

so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- ____ 0-1 ______ 0.0 - 1

rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 ____ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0

(all others) ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _____ 0-0 ______ 0.0 - 0

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