Napril 2023 Obs/Disco

[CoastalWx]

However, complete disaster tomorrow. 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

However, complete disaster tomorrow. 

Today we drizzle and warm. Tomorrow we door.

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man long range looks pretty nice. 

Oh how we pray and those GFS maps are just examples of our spring tendency not a forecast or anything. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Today we drizzle and warm. Tomorrow we door.

Should be good down here today. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh how we pray and those GFS maps are just examples of our spring tendency not a forecast or anything. 

The long range overall is quite nice looking. However, I can’t predict 11 days out if Vim Toot farts and sends a back door SW.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be good down here today. 

70 today south of the pike

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The long range overall is quite nice looking. However, I can’t predict 11 days out if Vim Toot farts and sends a back door SW.

But I posted a 36 hr example as well. Guess you saw the first map and had to post. LR crap shoot but hopefully models perform better than this past winter

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

But I posted a 36 hr example as well. Guess you saw the first map and had to post. LR crap shoot but hopefully models perform better than this past winter

I saw. My point was that the H5 look is AN for sure, on EPS anyways. 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Today we drizzle and warm. Tomorrow we door.

Word!

although... technically not a BD.  I mean the front has settles south as a N boundary ..by 00z this evening it's lengthwise down LI ... Then S of there tomorrow morning. 

In that set up it's more a BD for New Jersey.

But who cares, right - 

either way, ... draw the shades tomorrow

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... truth be told, I was hoping for a bit more from the models overnight wrt to the mid month paradigm shift.

And it's hugely coherent, btw.   Still seeing, en masse, the 850mb doing one of those reset retreats ...repositioning the 0C mean through 60N across the Canadian shield, leaving everywhere S of there oscillating between +3C pockets to +15 SW ejected plumes, is quite a bit-a different look than anything we've seen perhaps since last early autumn. 

That said, this looks more like (Climate Change base-line above normal material+ an above normal pattern)/2, but nothing "synergistically" bigger - yet?  It could still happen.  But the 00z GFS is trying to limit the ridge expansion - that "might" also be a function of it's progressive bias in that range ... consummately trying to ablate the tops of ridges - it does this.. so I'm not sure we won't see a bigger 500 mb ridge response mid month just yet. 

That would help limit these boundaries tainting the warm appeal overall.  

Or not.. the problem with our little nook of the world really is "our" problem.  I mean we could have a historic warm mid month spanning eastern continental mid latitudes, and verify this expectation brilliantly ...while we are not invited to that party because we are really sub-synoptic scaled butt boned lol.  We are a cold dumpster fire in spring here and it's just cruelly built into our geo-physics, land and air and cold Labrador circumstances.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

either way, ... draw the shades tomorrow

Who will be lucky enough to open the shades Thursday 

[Typhoon Tip]

I realize y'all are only perhaps "tepidly" interested in temperatures, haha...

No one asked for my opinion... but, I track spring warmth with the same passionate zeal as I do latter Autumn/early winter snow and cold.  

It's these first expressions when in the throws of seasonal change that really are a lot of fun and intrigue for me.  In spring, this continues on into summer with tracking heat waves and heat extremes. I'm fascinated with 'heat wave' synoptic Meteorology - and there's a growing body of papered sciences around them, wholly needed, as heat wave phenomenon is/has fast becoming both a direct health and safety casualty problem, but also a longer term global security threat.. 

Anyway, ...you can't (apparently) encourage a girl love you, any more than one could ever succeed in getting those that are passionate about snow in the winter to suddenly develop an equal affinity for summer heat - hahaha.  Don't worry, I'm not trying to do that.  Just sayn' why-for

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who will be lucky enough to open the shades Thursday 

Mmm...  right

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who will be lucky enough to open the shades Thursday 

All of SNE rips up to 70 Thursday afternoon away from water 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All of SNE rips up to 70 Thursday afternoon away from water 

Now I have to take that and subtract for the kfs hype bias, yes ?

[CoastalWx]

Might be a taller task Thursday NH border down into Essex county. 

[weatherwiz]

Lower Hudson Valley special coming right on up

[weatherwiz]

Not too often you see the GFS on the uglier side of things

 

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not too often you see the GFS on the uglier side of things

 

If that rare BD washout scenario succeeds on Thursday ... that could really be a remarkable 24 hour sensible weather whiplash.

Not a harmful one ... like in January, going from 57F, S of a weird boundary between the SE ridge and Scooter high, to losing that battle against said Scooter high to the tune of 27F in ZR the next day.  I've seen that before. ...digress.

But if the wash out succeeds, the GFS' known BL cool bias ... we'd need to correct up 5F at a minimum... particularly if the sky opens up with sun intervals from 11am to 4pm through. 564+ dm hydrostatic heights the BL expands unimpeded.  

Flags lazily waving around in a bath that smells like summer b.o. ( i.e., humid air, too)... That's what the models are sort of leaning toward, ...again, cannot underscore the rareness of achievement in April, so we bear that in mind.

That all said, those Wed numbers ( ironically...) the model might do better with the cool bias built in, because that's fresh polar 'rhea off a heat sinking Labrador cryo anus so you go colder ( unfortunately...).   The whole set up going into the next day appears to be an extreme potential.  Ha!  Normally, we go from 88 to 39 in the bigger corrections... not 36 to 77.  Could we go from upper 30s to upper 70s ? 

It'll be a fun journey for the experimental forecasting angle.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If that rare BD washout scenario succeeds on Thursday ... that could really be a remarkable 24 hour sensible weather whiplash.

Not a harmful one ... like in January, going from 57F, S of a weird boundary between the SE ridge and Scooter high, to losing that battle against said Scooter high to the tune of 27F in ZR the next day.  I've seen that before. ...digress.

But if the wash out succeeds, the GFS' known BL cool bias ... we'd need to correct up 5F at a minimum... particularly if the sky opens up with sun intervals from 11am to 4pm through. 564+ dm hydrostatic heights the BL expands unimpeded.  

Flags lazily waving around in a bath that smells like summer b.o. ( i.e., humid air, too)... That's what the models are sort of leaning toward, ...again, cannot underscore the rareness of achievement in April, so we bear that in mind.

That all said, those Wed numbers ( ironically...) the model might do better with the cool bias built in, because that's fresh polar 'rhea off a heat sinking Labrador cryo anus so you go colder ( unfortunately...).    Could go from upper 30s to upper 70s ? 

It'll be a fun journey for the experimental forecasting angle.

I think I'd be shocked if BOS was in the 30's all day, but I guess it isn't totally outlandish to think they may pull upper 30's during the day. 12z NAM has some pretty impressive llvl cold at 925. It's certainly warmer above this, but if BOS struggles to mix...yikes. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think I'd be shocked if BOS was in the 30's all day, but I guess it isn't totally outlandish to think they may pull upper 30's during the day. 12z NAM has some pretty impressive llvl cold at 925. It's certainly warmer above this, but if BOS struggles to mix...yikes. 

you know what actually sticks out for me there is the SSW trajectories at 30kts !

that may be the indication I've been looking for to make me - personally - feel more confident in the rare warm-winning scenario the next day.  Back in the 1990s ... I recall the AFD's of the era out of Taughton office often spoke of the 22kt index finger rule for between that level and 850, as a parametric lead in necessity for scouring out scunge atmospheres.  It was base on empirical data, where iterative averages appeared to key in on that momentum threshold.  Anyway, it seems we have a sufficient momentum, from a favorable direction based on that....  Hopefully other guidance join in -

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you know what actually sticks out for me there is the SSW trajectories at 30kts !

that may be the indication I've been looking for to make me - personally - feel more confident in the rare warm-winning scenario the next day.  Back in the 1990s ... I recall the AFD's of the era out of Taughton office often spoke of the 22kt index finger rule for between that level and 850, as a parametric lead in necessity for scouring out scunge atmospheres.  It was base on empirical data, where iterative averages appeared to key in on that momentum threshold.  Anyway, it seems we have a sufficient momentum, from a favorable direction based on that....  Hopefully other guidance join in -

Yeah Thursday should be quite warm for sure. The main sfc low is tracking well off to the northwest and we lose the influences of the departing high so the flow throughout the column column is predominately SW unidirectional. Mixing should be pretty strong and with enough heating temps should soar.

NAM/GFS bufkit look like lower 60's for BOS Thursday. NBM is 70. I would definitely hedge towards the NBM and maybe tack on another couple degrees.

[Ginx snewx]

Amazing how everyone south of NH let today slip by. What a fantastic day here. No wind warm sun low dews. Sign me up. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

But I posted a 36 hr example as well. Guess you saw the first map and had to post. LR crap shoot but hopefully models perform better than this past winter

Nice 50° difference between home and the SNJ branch of family.  Sleet here, skeeters there?

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah Thursday should be quite warm for sure. The main sfc low is tracking well off to the northwest and we lose the influences of the departing high so the flow throughout the column column is predominately SW unidirectional. Mixing should be pretty strong and with enough heating temps should soar.

NAM/GFS bufkit look like lower 60's for BOS Thursday. NBM is 70. I would definitely hedge towards the NBM and maybe tack on another couple degrees.

I was just looking at the NAM FOUS numbers - it's a powerful tool that tech and graphics reliant modern Gen Z and Millenial Meteorologists don't know how to use ... or pass dynamics exams anymore...  ( lol, just kidding)

But it has 900 mb temperature of +18C over Logan, with winds out of 230 degrees at 12kts...  Standard adiabatic extrapolation supports a 2-meter 26C!!

The R2 level has 62% RH indicated so a little shaky on the amount of sun...  I'll tell you what though. In addition to the 22kts index finger rule from old school, there was also known overly cloudy tendency in warm sectors where the front moves N earlier in the day.  ...  That's really the only limitation relative to this model run and cycle depiction. Otherwise ... yeah, the BL can expand a helluva lot more than 72 F if left to its own devices and sun

( These pieces of local climate study candy are why you can't just relocate to say ...some unknown city's climo like San Francisco, look at a few weather charts ...and "get it" very well...  )

I'm trying to build a case here to overcome my years of being abused by back door paddling by cold nun real life experience N/E of warm boundaries in SNE....

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just looking at the NAM FOUS numbers - it's a powerful tool that tech and graphics reliant modern Gen Z and Millenial Meteorologists don't know how to use ... or pass dynamics exams anymore...  ( lol, just kidding)

But it has 900 mb temperature of +18C over Logan, with winds out of 230 degrees at 12kts...

The R2 level has 62% RH indicated so a little shaky on the amount of sun...  I'll tell you what though. In addition to the 22kts index finger rule from old school, there was also known overly cloudy tendency in warm sectors where the front moves N earlier in the day. 

( These pieces of local climate study candy are why you can't just relocate to say ...some unknown city's climo like San Francisco, look at a few weather charts ...and "get it" very well...  )

I'm trying to build a case here to overcome my years of being abused by back door paddling by cold nun real life experience N/E of warm boundaries in SNE....

Where do you go to get FOUS data? One of my professors was a huge fan of it, used to use I think it was Texas A&M (which I did) but it like stopped working on there (this was several years back, maybe its good now).

Anyways, I know its a bit extended, but playing around with some mixing levels on 6z GFS for bufkit Thursday and it won't take much to get on the + side of 70.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think I'd be shocked if BOS was in the 30's all day, but I guess it isn't totally outlandish to think they may pull upper 30's during the day. 12z NAM has some pretty impressive llvl cold at 925. It's certainly warmer above this, but if BOS struggles to mix...yikes. 

Looks like I'm porked there....in that narrow sliver or real estate that enjoy the luxury of missing out on both winter and spring.....hopefully ma nature gives the winter orifice of choice a break and selects another hole to ravage-

[powderfreak]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The Wasatch in Utah and both Cottonwood Canyons (basically suburbs for SLC) at 750+ widespread up there.

Alta at 830" (after racking up 18 today with ease). 

 

 

12 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

830” …that’s 69 feet. WTF? Hard to even imagine. 

And 12 hours later still nuking. 35" storm total, another 15" in those 12 hours with seasonal total of 845" now.

What a time to be alive out there.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Where do you go to get FOUS data? One of my professors was a huge fan of it, used to use I think it was Texas A&M (which I did) but it like stopped working on there (this was several years back, maybe its good now).

Anyways, I know its a bit extended, but playing around with some mixing levels on 6z GFS for bufkit Thursday and it won't take much to get on the + side of 70.

I'm sure you can find other sites ...But this (below) is Albany/Suny's general web access.   I would like to find one that carries all of them... because as the product looks like a grid, it is indeed.  And the grid is cut up across sections for everywhere across the U.S.   It's fun to geek out and look the FOUS profiles over the SW when they're in one of their historic Death Valley Venus deals... Or go to the N Plains during a magenta cold blast on the models..

 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/index.php?d=wx_text

 

That's the 61 block which covers the LGA-ALB-BTV-BOS region.  60 ( I believe...) covers PWM-CON-CAR - ...some place in western Maine. 

and so on...

[dendrite]

3k is pretty icy tomorrow afternoon up here.